Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 11 of 51
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  1. The Italians have an expression for what you are trying to do Burgey.

    “Lavare la testa all asino si spreca tempo e sapone.”.

  3. I had to laugh earlier with the Greens getting upset in the Senate when Labor decide to support a Greens motion.

    I suppose some things should be private! 🙂

  5. Anyway, I’m off home for the evening.

    Thanks everyone for some decent chat.

    I’ll be having a big, juicy steak cooked on a natural gas bbq and some genetically modified salad for dinner. I’m doing the BBQ because I want to keep the heat out of the house while the air conditioner runs, keeping my domesticated canines cool and happy while I feed the local cats outside. I’m not much of a cat person, but at least they keep the possums away.

    After dinner I’ll probably trim the hedge back. It’s an imported variety, of course, not a native, because a lot of native bushes are dross, frankly. Hopefully the Council approval for the lopping of the native tree in the back yard has come through, because it’s leaves are annoying when they drop, and it casts too much shade for our liking. And possums get into the bloody thing.

    Then after dinner I’ll sit and watch a wrap of the day’s politics on ABC News Channel on my 55″ plasma tv which has been running all day as we like to leave relaxation music on for the dogs while we are at work, before repairing to my (also) air conditioned bedroom upstairs for a night of sound sleep.

    Next door, the local Greens will of course be sweltering with Dengue Fever from the mosquitoes which they refuse to kill on humanitarian grounds and unable to sleep as they toss and turn while singing Kum By Yah in the heat and humidity as possums run across their roof unfettered; making all kinds of noise while pissing, shitting and rooting their way across the now-damaged solar panels.

    But at least the Greens will know in what passes for their hearts that they did their bit.

    Good evening all.

  6. OK. GMO cotton is out. Animal skins are out. Fur? Oh Noes! Wool is out. Fig leaves leave a bit to be desired. That leaves oil-based CO2-emitting fibres.
    I look forward to the Greens going about their UBI or UJG in the principled nuddy.

  9. Burgey @ #504 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 5:32 pm

    Anyway, I’m off home for the evening.

    Thanks everyone for some decent chat.

    I’ll be having a big, juicy steak cooked on a natural gas bbq and some genetically modified salad for dinner. I’m doing the BBQ because I want to keep the heat out of the house while the air conditioner runs, keeping my domesticated canines cool and happy while I feed the local cats outside. I’m not much of a cat person, but at least they keep the possums away.

    After dinner I’ll probably trim the hedge back. It’s an imported variety, of course, not a native, because a lot of native bushes are dross, frankly. Hopefully the Council approval for the lopping of the native tree in the back yard has come through, because it’s leaves are annoying when they drop, and it casts too much shade for our liking. An possums get into the bloody thing.

    Then after dinner I’ll sit and watch a wrap of the day’s politics on ABC News Channel on my 55″ plasma tv which has been running all day as we like to leave relaxation music on for the dogs while we are at work, before repairing to my (also) air conditioned bedroom upstairs for a night of sound sleep.

    Next door, the local Greens will of course be sweltering with Dengue Fever from the mosquitoes which they refuse to kill on humanitarian grounds and unable to sleep as they toss and turn while singing Kum By Yah in the heat and humidity as possums run across their roof unfettered; making all kinds of noise while pissing, shitting and rooting their way across the now-damaged solar panels.

    But at least the Greens will know in what passes for their hearts that they did their bit.

    Good evening all.

    bye bye…

  14. The Guardian:

    The Australian Council of Social Services has come out very strongly against the wait time changes for new migrants that were passed after a deal between the government and Labor

    “The Australian Council of Social Service has today condemned the parliament’s decision to cut $1.2bn from social security for recent migrants.

    “This decision will hurt people and their children trying to build a life in Australia. Our social security system should be built on equality,” said Dr Cassandra Goldie, Acoss CEO.

    “We know that migrants make a huge contribution to the community. The government’s legislation that passed the parliament last night, with the support of the Australian Labor Party, One Nation, Derryn Hinch, Brian Burston and David Leyonhjelm, says to migrants that you are not as valued as the rest of us. This policy will hurt people for a long time to come.

    “Instead of making life harder for people, our parliament should focus on how to reduce poverty and inequality to ensure all of us can thrive. Our parliament should focus on reducing division in our communities, and develop policies based on compassion and respect.”

  20. The Greens are the wallflowers of Australian politics.

    In Victoria, when the voters sought out progressive policies and parties that could deliver services, the Greens vote has dropped by around 10% and they lost half their representatives.

    Greens, Sad-Sad!

  21. BW
    “I am curious to know whether you consider your family’s experience to be an issue of systemic failure?”
    I wouldn’t condemn a whole system based on a few bad experiences especially as there are so many types of disabilities. There is obviously a lot of work to be done to get all areas of the NDIS up to scratch. If/When Shorten becomes PM, I’m sure he will put a lot of effort into fixing it given it’s a signature policy.

  23. While not quite saying “climate change caused the fires”, the ABC is drawing a connection between the fires in Queensland and climate, and then saying this is unusual.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-04/queensland-bushfire-heatwave-breaks-bom-weather-records/10573464
    In a report about the fires the ABC says:

    Queensland heatwave smashes BOM November records, Stradbroke Island keeps burning

    If you thought summer had started early in Queensland this year, you were right, with temperatures hitting high 30s and into the 40s last month sending records tumbling.

    Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) climatologist Tamika Tihema said it was “significant” to see the record broken in such a way. “It has never gotten above 42C … but to get two days in a row at that temperature was quite extraordinary,” she said.

    I hope the fires end quickly, but at the same time I hope the warnings keep drumming, and that those images of flames and burnt out bush resonate for a long time. (With no more being added.) It is startling to think that these fires seemed to break out everywhere, and in late November before the Summer has really started.

  24. Absolutely pathetic for Australian Labor to help support the Coalition Party in any bill.

    They have helped to pass the encryption bill.

  25. Some here have been concerned about the effect of Labor’s franking credit policy on its vote at the Federl Election. Here are some facts published in the an article in the “West Australian” by Shane Wright

    1. The most affected electorates are all Liberal held electorates – Curtin 10300 people, Tangney 8100 and more than 6000 in O’connor, Moore & Forrest. All Labor electorates are the least affected except for Pearce held by Porter but that will be a Labor electorate come May. I suspect this is the case in all other states.

    2.The wealthiest 10% with a net wealth of $2mil hold 72% of the nation’s shares. The next wealthiest 10% ($1.3 to $2.mil) hold another 14.3% of all shares.

    3. 52% of rebated franking credits or $1.4 bill went to self-managed super funds that had a balance of at least $2.4 million

    Wright was quoting the Independent Parliamentary Budget Office. In terms of who is most affected by their policy Labor has little to worry about. Their policy is one that will benefit the many not the few.

  27. @Boer-

    To be fair, the Greens are not proposing a zero defence spend. The thrust of their policy would likely see defence spending reduced to about $12Billion (or about 0.6% of GNP).

    The policy is predicated on an assumption that a more independent foreign policy would likely see Australia a smaller target for both terrorist actors and rouge states. They may even have a point. Take the Navy’s Future Frigate program. Initially, it was envisaged to replace the ANZAC class frigates between 2026 and the mid 2030s with a similar capable platform: 8-9 ships for around $6 billion dollars in total. Under the Rudd-Gillard government – the then Defence Parlaimentary Secretary (as Assisant Ministers were then called) Mike Kelly identified Navantia’s F100 class as a suitable platform. The F100 class was already selected as the platform for the Air Warfare Destroyer program and it was thought that a stripped down version (replacing Lockheed Martin’s AEGIS combat system with something cheaper and not shipping the more expensive variants of the Lockheed’s Standard Missile systems in the vertical launch tubes) with a focus on anti-submarine warfare would be a complimentary technology to the AWDs and fall close to within the original budget estimate for the program. However, largely because of the current government’s ‘all the way with Uncle Sam’ approach to China in the South China Sea-North Korea nuclear stand off – and marine base in Darwin it was thought necessary to obtain a ‘super AEGIS’ anti-ballistic shield capability and the ‘future frigate’ program morphed into a $35 billion super destroyer program. In the blink of an eye.

    In my view a more independent approach to China and North Korea effectively removes the ballistic missile threat and hence the need to invest an additional $25 billion+ into the replacement frigate program. While there is no doubt that on paper the new ‘Hunter Class’ Frigates (actually super destroyers) are very potent – based on the latest British ‘Global Combat Ship’ platform and the latest and best version of AEGIS, but the fact of the matter is that in the absence of an actual ballistic missile threat the program is overkill and not without its problems – specifically the Global Combat Ship is not a proven platform – the British lead type 26 ships will not become active until the mid 2020s. Secondly the builders – BAE – have no experience in mating any of their ship platforms with Lockheed’s AEGIS systems.

    In my view a more independent foreign and defence policy would see Australia acheive more ‘bang for buck’ by ordering another 3 AWDs (which is now an established and proven technology) for less than $8 billion in total, plus going along with Mike Kelly’s idea of an F100 based large frigate – utilising Lockheed Martin’s cheaper than AEGIS ‘Combatss-21’ combat management system. That should reduce the cost per ship down to under $1 billion. The beauty of Combatss-21 is that when that frigate operates in tandem with an AWD the sensors can fuse with AEGIS, so that the AWD can control the Frigate’s vertical launch missiles (thereby doubling the number of missiles at hand) whilst the Frigate can concentrate on anti submarine warfare, including accessing the AWD’s anti submarine capabilities to component its own. Furthermore both systems can fuse with other Lockheed weapon’s platforms such as the F35, which can then extend the range of both the air warefare capabilities and anti-submarine operations, including ‘quarterbacking’ missile strikes from both ship platforms.

    This alternative plan would enable Australia to ship up to 15 large frigates-AWDs with a cost saving of nearly $20 billion. In turn, this would enable Australia to manage the things it can manage from a defence perspective – not an all out invasion or war with China. Rather when rouge states or breakaway provinces in South East Asia threaten Australian interests and there is a need for modern defence materiale in the event that a Putin like figure decides to be ‘helpful’ to said rouge state or breakaway provision and provides them with modern anti-aircraft capabilities like the S400 system, alla Syria.

  28. Is there going to be a run on buying investments houses before Labor gets in to grandfather the purchase for negative gearing?

  29. Zoidlord@6:03pm
    But Michael,a PB blogger, kept posting that implied that ALP is not winning Caulfield and Ripon (he was focused on only those 2 seats since ALP took lead in those seats and relinquished later)
    Greens say that they won Prahran and Brunswick
    So if read Michael it is as if Caulfield and Ripon are safe ALP seats, which they lost.
    What impression do you get when you read Greens post on Melbourne, Brunswick and Prahran? Isn’t it as if Greens win the Victorian State elections.

  31. Ven
    says:
    What impression do you get when you read Greens post on Melbourne, Brunswick and Prahran? Isn’t it as if Greens win the Victorian State elections.
    ___________________________________
    Seeing that for most of the Greens history they were without lower house seats in Victoria the establishment of a core group of inner city Green seats is a great achievement. No small thing replacing a party which has held those areas for a hundred years.

  33. Sydney Light Rail & the real cost of Liberal Party maladministration.

    12km long estimated construction time now 1200 days at a cost of $2.1 Billion +++ not including legal fees or likely loss in court with contractor

    That equates to 10 huge meters per day at a cost of $1Million / day if using US term for billion.

  35. Thank goodness someone understands what a disaster Craig Kelly is.

    Malcolm Turnbull’s intervention in a fight over the future of Craig Kelly has sparked a war inside the NSW Liberal Party’s dominant moderate wing, with its leadership accused of capitulating to conservatives.

    A blistering email obtained by the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age reveals the decision by factional leaders Trent Zimmerman and Matt Kean to support Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s plan to rescue Mr Kelly from certain preselection defeat has triggered bitter recriminations.

    In a late-night missive on Monday, Sally Betts — a close ally of the former prime minister — attacked Mr Zimmerman and Mr Kean for helping save Mr Kelly, a conservative backbencher who helped bring down the National Energy Guarantee and Mr Turnbull’s leadership.

    “To say that the moderates are disappointed in you, as our supposed leader, is an understatement,” she wrote to the North Sydney MP.

    “You supported Kelly – a thug, a bully, and a disgrace and you need to explain that to the moderates.

    “You were happy to sell the moderates down the river and not even ask for anything for our vote … how many other deals are you going to do that disadvantage the moderates?

    “And I am telling you that you have no authority to speak for me or anyone else ever again. I doubt if the majority of the moderates want you to speak for them either.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/sold-down-the-river-leaked-emails-show-liberal-party-moderates-under-fire-for-saving-craig-kelly-20181204-p50k49.html

  39. Seen on ABC TV news. Daley being cynical about the fast train announcement.

    Disappointing if you’re like me and hope that he goes “me-too”.

  40. A-E
    1. There is nothing in their statements that support the notion that the Greens will spend a single dollar on defence. In fact defence expenditure is removed from their costings altogether. The Greens have not in thirty years supported a single item of defence acquisition. It is reasonable to assume that they mean what they say.
    2. There are numerous references to ‘disarmament’ in the Greens policy statement. But none whatsover to what they would actually purchase.
    3. The assumption underlying Greens defence policy, wtte, that militarily powerful states attack other states because the other state is powerful, is simply not supported by history. Wars are triggered within an expectation that the wars will be won because the other side has some sort of perceived weakness.
    4. My view is that Australia is repeating many of the historical mistakes it made going into World War Two. The biggest one is that we are tailoring our military expenditure to be a bit part of the US military. Your comments on the Air Warfare Destroyers fit in with this view.
    5. In general I agree that defence acquisition needs a root and branch review and reform.
    6. My view is that we should leave ANZUS.
    7. My view is that we should aim for a stance of very strongly armed neutrality.
    8. The best outcome for Australia would be a century without war. This has been achieved by cockpit states such as Sweden and is, IMO, achievable for Australia. But that would definitely not be achieved by the Greens policy of supine defenceslessness.

  43. So, we know that the Greens want to to close Olympic Dam, shut down the cotton industry, get rid of full time employment, and shut down the ADF.

    And they wonder why they struggle to get more than one person in ten to vote for them.

  44. Great to see Labor partisans so complacent and jubilant about their losses in Prahran and Brunswick. It’s fantastic that you’re OK with it guys! I reckon it’s brilliant too! Finally I’m on a joint ticket with the Labots. Feel the lurv!

  45. max @ #544 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 7:25 pm

    Great to see Labor partisans so complacent and jubilant about their losses in Prahran and Brunswick. It’s fantastic that you’re OK with it guys! I reckon it’s brilliant too! Finally I’m on a joint ticket with the Labots. Feel the lurv!

    Like all losers, you Greens can please yourself!

  46. This is the text of an advert that came up on Gumtree just now when I searched administration jobs.
    Note the duties, note the skill level and then note THE RATE OF PAY!

    Volunteer Receptionist/admin support Position 3 months
    Allied Health Practice

    · Will suit for someone looking for a work experience and live around Hoppers crossing.

    · Volunteer (Unpaid) Intern Position 3 months

    Key Responsibilities include (not limited to):

    · Managing appointments

    · Answering phone

    · Managing the waiting room

    · Billing of appointments and taking payments

    · Liaising with doctors, staff and other Allied Health Providers

    · Processing Medicare, HICAP claims and payments

    Skills and Experience

    · Comprehensive computer skills essential

    · Ability to multi-task and perform appropriately under pressure and in stressful situations

    · Strong written and verbal communicative skills

    · Must be well presented

    · Attention to detail

    · Exceptional customer service skills

  48. Puffy

    I’ve no doubt that someone who is obligated to attend regular meetings with the privatised Jobs Network (or whatever they’re called), will be “encouraged” to take up the role.

  50. And there is no mention of how the VOLUNTEER admin person is going to clothe themselves and keep those clothes clean to be ‘well presented’ as required. Ditto haircuts and extra grooming products.

    Are they expected to pay for their own transport to the unpaid job? How do they eat, drink and buy medicine? I assume the volunteer will be living with parents or a partner who will pay for all housing and living costs?

    Assuming that level of skill means having a college certificate, why would the person need an internship of three months? Anyone with those skills is ready for a paid job, they are not a trainee.

    Does the volunteer gets covered by insurance for workplace injury or does the volunteer have to get their own (like work experience high school students do)?

    I assume this is legal. My question is, how did we get here?

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