Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  2. C@t that’s a high speed train crash in Spain that was caused by connecting a high speed track to a low speed track and then never worrying about the interface between the control systems on the older slower track and the control systems on the newer track. You create a section of track where the driver must be paying attention and this one wasn’t.

  5. Well I think a century or so distance from the event does make a difference. Perhaps, ethically there is none, but it just feels like there is.

  7. If Lib MPs like Craig Kelly, that fat George guy from Qld (whose name escapes me), Abbott, Andrews and Abetz and co don’t believe the Liberal party fulfills the policy goals of so-called conservatives, they should put their money where their loud mouths are and join the Bernard party, which openly declares itself to be conservative.

    But of course they won’t because they know once they leave the bosom of a mainstream party like the LP they lose their generous taxpayer-funded salaries.

  8. Cud Chewer @ #2501 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 9:52 pm

    C@t that’s a high speed train crash in Spain that was caused by connecting a high speed track to a low speed track and then never worrying about the interface between the control systems on the older slower track and the control systems on the newer track. You create a section of track where the driver must be paying attention and this one wasn’t.

    And the people that did that didn’t know what would be the outcome!?!

  9. Cat

    I’m thinking of a metaphoric video more like the road runner cartoons where Wile E ScumMo chases after the Prime Ministership, momentum takes him over the cliff in a cloud of hubris, and then he realises that there is no ground under him, and begins the long plummet to the election far below.

  11. Gecko

    It was thanks (? 🙂 ) to JTI’s blog that I found the Bludger Lounge. Someone posted a link to PB . He had a good crew following him and there were a lot of LOLs. Pay walled now though.

  12. Cat

    And as for the ethics of using such images, yes think of something classy for ScumMo, like when Alan Jones described a previous PM being put in a chaff bag and dumped at sea (like those Argentinian junta victims). So ethical.

  13. citizen @ #2503 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 9:52 pm

    Perhaps it’s more appropriate to compare observing the Liberal Party at the moment to watching a building implosion in slow motion.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    This one from https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2018/01/06/lifeway-nashville-live-stream-implosion-draper-tower/997702001/

    citizen, you are probably correct, according to this quote from John Ruddick:

    Mr Ruddick told Fairfax Media the war engulfing the Coalition would worsen and was in “a whole different dimension” to the woes that afflicted Labor under Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard.

    “This is a philosophical and structural war,” said Mr Ruddick, who is not presently a party member. “That’s why it’s going to only escalate post the two coming elections.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/craig-kelly-planning-to-quit-the-liberal-party-as-government-braces-for-more-defections-20181128-p50iyk.html

  14. nath
    Given you joked that every fifth South Australian is a serial killer and one of our departed PBers son was murdered by a serial killer, it’s a bit hypocritical to get too upset about a GIF.

  16. ratsak
    says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 9:56 pm
    How’s your campaign to get Led Zeppelin I banned going Nath?
    _____________________________
    Why don’t you scour the newspapers for current tragedies, go to those towns and do a little comedy act? No? I didn’t think so.

  17. Nicholas, in the vein hope that you listen and learn..

    We should fix the age pension, the disability support pension, and the sickness benefit at 75 percent of the full time minimum wage ($35,600 annually).

    Sounds good Nicholas, but increasing the spending power of a group of people without actually creating jobs in the same process is, according to you, potentially inflationary. This was part of your flawed argument against a UBI.

    Legislate that the minimum wage adjusts automatically in line with labour productivity growth. The age pension etc should therefore be adjusted automatically as well to keep it at 75 percent of the full-time minimum wage.

    Ditto and also notice that you don’t mention Newstart. Do you propose Newstart as 75 percent of the minimum wage? Because if you don’t you end up having people fall through the cracks. People who are unemployable but nonetheless stigmatised. Yes, even with JG.

    We should abolish all wealth and income tests for the age pension. It should be seen as a universal entitlement for older people.

    But retain complex, invasive, expensive and stigmatising tests for DSP? And similarly keep people on Newstart on a lower income to the DSP and also hound those people with needless activity tests and the like? You’re not going to get everyone onto a JG job. There will always be exceptions.

  20. Diogenes
    says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 9:57 pm
    nath
    Given you joked that every fifth South Australian is a serial killer and one of our departed PBers son was murdered by a serial killer, it’s a bit hypocritical to get too upset about a GIF.
    _____________________________________
    I have no idea what you are talking about. There is no comparison. It was obvious that the gif was a massive tragedy, even without knowing the details.

  21. C@tmomma, I think it would be best if you apologised for posting that 2013 train fatality in the pursuit of laughs. We would all think better of you. Mistakes happen – even to the best of us!
    🙂

  22. nath
    “It was obvious that the gif was a massive tragedy, even without knowing the details.”
    It is obvious that serial killers have killed people, even without knowing the details.

  24. Julia Banks looks right at home on the crossbench. It’s amazing how a woman’s disposition can improve when she escapes the company of misogynistic homophobic AGW denialists. 🙂

    :large

  27. As for what is making the Liberal far right apologists quake in their jack-boots, I do recall predicting a few weeks ago that there would be a few departures and defections once the reality of their situation set in. A group of individuals united in their common belief in self interest, and little else, will not survive long when the group cannot advance their self interest any more.

    Further, I have been thinking about ScumMo’s failure to deliver a Federal ICAC, as Turnbull was proposing. Was that one of the major reasons for Dutton knifing Turnbull? Sometimes we invent over complicated ideological arguments when simple greed explains everything. If a Federal ICAC had come in, who knows who would have been threatened by it? Perhaps the Reichspotato himself and the beetrooter have something to fear from a Federal ICAC, and so each has been spoiling for the leadership instead.

  28. Diogenes.
    If C@tmomma had made a general comment about the Liberal Party being a ‘train crash’ without the accompanying gif. It wouldn’t have been an issue. The same with me mentioning serial killers without mentioning any particular incident. So get back in your barrel and think about it some more.

  30. ratsak
    says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 10:11 pm
    It is obvious that serial killers have killed people, even without knowing the details.
    It is obvious that nath is a shit bloke, even without knowing the details.
    ___________________________
    It’s obvious that ratsak is a shitty musician and we can all see the details.

  32. Socrates:

    Someone this morning posted video footage of the Sky After Dark mob discussing a federal corruption body. The talking heads all agreed that there was too much public service meddling into people’s affairs, and if we introduce a federal ICAC where would it end etc etc.

    LIstening to it I couldn’t help but draw the conclusion that those who are opposed are the ones with something to hide, or at least something that if it came out wouldn’t go down too well with the public.

  36. Now, carry on without me. In the real world I have to be up at 5.30am tomorrow to take my son into hospital for a major operation. Some of you whingers don’t know how lucky you are.

  37. There is nothing so loathed by the true punks than ‘middle class punks’. I mean, it’s so sad. Look at the history of Punk to see how the working class punks regard them.

  41. Using gifs and images like that for the purposes of humor is a pretty common practice online. Loathe as I may be to come to C@t’s defense, I can’t say I really see the big deal here. It’s pretty clear she wasn’t intending to mock the victims of the crash.

  46. Best wishes and good luck to you both Cat.

    Fess
    “LIstening to it I couldn’t help but draw the conclusion that those who are opposed are the ones with something to hide, or at least something that if it came out wouldn’t go down too well with the public.”

    Exactly. The government is desperate to do something that would be popular (except resigning). Lots of polls show a Federal ICAC would be very popular with many voters on both sides. So why wouldn’t ScumMo create an ICAC? Presto, a popular decision at last. Turnbull was going to propose one, but got rolled. If ScumMo doesn’t create an ICAC it suggests he was one of those opposed to it. Why?

    Night all.

  49. Lord Clyde Of HANSARD
    ‏ @nobby15
    53m53 minutes ago

    Mr Kelly – a conservative MP from southern Sydney – has privately conceded he has no chance of retaining preselection in the face of a push by moderate Liberal members who have the numbers to remove him.
    1 reply 8 retweets 7 likes

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