Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. A couple of “Keep Cal;m and Carry On” headlines from The Australian 🙂
    .
    ScoMo eyes his off own Hindenburg disaster
    .
    Apocalypse now: stench of panic

  2. frednk
    says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 9:01 pm

    nath says:

    Maybe. Or perhaps Shorten is more cunning than you credit him for. I’d be willing to bet that an ETS never eventuates.

    How much and how do we arrange things so I can be sure you pay up.
    _________________________________
    It could be a long running bet. I assume after the first 3 year term you will say next term. So it could be endless.

    Let’s just assume we wont both pay and call it a draw 🙂

  3. MS,
    There’s a sea change in the Australian electorate going on. I believe we are finally shaking off the shackles of the ‘Mean and Tricky’ Howard era.

  4. Peter Stanton is here. I did notice your post last night where you and your deranged wife tell me to “get fucked”. Can I ask what motivated such hysterics in the Stanton household?

  5. Ben Eltham
    ‏Verified account @beneltham
    2m2 minutes ago

    Labor announced a strong package of support for science and research tonight. Policy details include a new root-and-branch review, restoring ARC integrity, and lifting research funding to 3% of GDP.

  6. The Liberal Party is flipping the switch to Vaudeville

    “By Latika Bourke
    28 November 2018 — 6:03pm

    Liberal Party branch members and sitting MPs have privately urged Dave Sharma to oust Tony Abbott from Parliament, as consensus grows in Canberra that the former prime minister needs to leave politics to let the Coalition heal from an expected election loss.

    But Mr Sharma – who lost last month’s byelection in the neighbouring electorate of Wentworth to independent Kerryn Phelps – rebuffed the advances and is focused on recontesting the seat next year.”

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-urge-dave-sharma-to-run-against-tony-abbott-in-warringah-20181128-p50iwa.html

  7. Darn,

    I think there’s little doubt that had Turnbull gone to the people immediately following the coup, he would’ve won. That he didn’t was great news for Labor and has served to cement its strong position now. The Tory Party is indeed in dire straits, chaotic, disunited – all the elements pointing to a big loss next year.

  8. I think this is where ScaMo’s tactic of playing both sides off against each other and coming through the middle is not going to serve him well in the end. Neither side will be prepared to throw him a lifeline as the listing ship finally starts to break apart.

  9. Josh Butler
    ‏Verified account @JoshButler
    1m1 minute ago

    [to the tune of Black Betty]
    whoa Craig Kelly (bam ba lam)
    whoa Craig Kelly (bam ba lam)
    Craig Kelly says he’s done (bam ba lam)
    The Libs lose another one (bam ba lam)

  10. EVERALD COMPTON
    ‏ @EVERALDATLARGE
    2h2 hours ago

    #Kelly is one of 5 MP’s whom I know are planning to leave #Liberals in Federal Parliament when the timing suits them. The once great Party is collapsing.
    Craig Kelly planning to quit the Liberal Party as government braces for more defections https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/craig-kelly-planning-to-quit-the-liberal-party-as-government-braces-for-more-defections-20181128-p50iyk.html … via @smh

    LNP are going in a big bang, I was hoping for a KaBOOM.

  11. Malcolm Turnbull
    ‏Verified account @TurnbullMalcolm
    2h2 hours ago

    It was Mark Twain who said “Only fiction has to be credible.” But the @australian satirists outdid Orwell with their editorial today headed “Turnbull moderates blow up a centrist government” A centrist government was blown up; in August and it wasn’t done by moderates.

  12. Or come on down Queen
    ..
    Another one bites the dust
    Another one bites the dust
    And another one gone, and another one gone
    Another one bites the dust
    Hey, Kellys leaving, too
    Another one bites the dust

    Scomo ya happy, or satisfied?
    How long can you stand the heat?
    Out of the doorway the MPs leave
    To the sound of defeat

  13. Airlie Walsh
    ‏Verified account @AirlieWalsh
    18m18 minutes ago

    Scott Morrison acknowledges Liberal MP Craig Kelly, who has arrived at the Business Leaders Annual Dinner, amid reports he plans to run as an independent at the next election. #auspol #9news

  14. C@tmomma:

    [‘There’s a sea change in the Australian electorate going on. I believe we are finally shaking off the shackles of the ‘Mean and Tricky’ Howard era.’]

    And they’ll be dancing in the street. Howard reckons the Tories shouldn’t panic. That’s ludicrous; for they are doing exactly that. I hope Labor’s victory is so great that the Tories will ditch their troglodytes and return to the sensible centre, but not govern again until they serve at least two terms in opposition.

  15. Zoidlord @ #2461 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 9:18 pm

    #Kelly is one of 5 MP’s whom I know are planning to leave #Liberals in Federal Parliament when the timing suits them.

    What’s this “when the timing suits them” stuff? The only timing that makes any sense is right now. The first one to leave – Banks – will be a lauded as a trailblazer, and will stand a good chance of re-election as an independent. The second one to leave will be noted as following an already established path, and will probably not make it back. Any subsequent departures will be largely ignored – their career is over.

    Politics is brutal. And so it should be to such people.

  16. Player One @ #2405 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:45 pm

    Libertarian Unionist @ #2402 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:34 pm

    P1,

    We have a the best wind and the best solar resources in the world. So midpoint costs are not relevant.

    And judging by how much we export to countries who have massive coal resources of their own, we must also have some of the cheapest coal in the world. Which means the coal midpoint price may also not be relevant.

    I wonder what the low end of the coal price is?

    We are going to find that out, at least for thermal coal, very, very soon now.

    My bet is that it will be not much more than the cost of digging it out of the ground. If things go well.

  17. I think a majority of Aussies still want a moderate government, either centre-left or centre-right. Gillard moved a bit too far left by getting too close to the Greens and we got Abbott. Abbott moved way to far to the right in his first budget and lost support quickly and we got Turnbull.

    The Libs themselves destroyed Turnbull and will pay a very high electoral price. Basically Shorten will end up with the type of majority Abbott received in 2013.

    Time will tell how Labor handles that type of power. Hopefully he will do better than Howard, Rudd, Newman or Abbott.

  18. I remember reading once an historian or biographer or someone who said the Liberals are always more unified in govt and in opposition tend to fall into a rabble. If true, on the basis of what we’re seeing, can you imagine what that rabble will look like when they are eventually booted out?

  19. There is no low she will forego, no matter how offensive, in her online crusade against the LNP and her defence of the ALP. She is, at times, an utterly horrid person.

  20. On the topic of UK Economy:

    Tom Brake MP
    ‏Verified account @thomasbrake
    2h2 hours ago

    Jaw-dropping.

    .@PhilipHammondUK calmly states on @BBCr4today that leaving the EU, with the PM’s deal, No Deal or any other deal will damage British jobs.

    Is he the first UK Chancellor who has openly admitted they intend hurting the UK economy?

    #PeoplesVote
    #FBPE

  21. nath @ #2479 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 9:30 pm

    I tell you C@t. 78 people died in that Spanish train crash, including children. Yet it seems to amuse you.

    Oh, of course, I totally knew that and purposefully put it up for a laff, you opportunistic fool! I didn’t. So I will request Mr Bowe to delete it if that will assuage your opportunistic sensibilities.

    But I mean, really, here we are on a blog a half a world away and those people are long since gone to their maker, and we have to, in Australia, years after the event, keep respecting their untimely demise because someone inadvertently puts up footage of it!?! Sometimes I shake my head at overreactions like this, but whatever.

  22. So Julia Banks will stand against little Greg Hunt at next federal election, did i hear that right?

    Stephen Conroy is such a poor “commentator” on sky. Struggles to string two words together and is so laborious with his commentary. His voice is not suited to sound.

  23. Sorry to disappoint, but when you go online looking for funny memes of train crashes, there’s bound to be some tragedies behind it. Sorry to ruin your fun.

  24. Even Kelly surely would not be so deluded to think he could win.

    But It was alleged in 2016 that the dumped member for Tangney Dennis Jensen ran as an independent to ensure he was paid up to election day.

    The suggestion was that if he didn’t nominate the pay ended.

    Was never really explained if that was the case.

    And if he can get better than 4 percent of the vote they are worth nearly three bucks each.

  25. nath @ #2492 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 9:45 pm

    Sorry to disappoint, but when you go online looking for funny memes of train crashes, there’s bound to be some tragedies behind it. Sorry to ruin your fun.

    And you have opportunistically zeroed in on me when I did it but remained mute when, I think it was, poroti, put one up as well the other day.

    I expect nothing less from you, of course.

  26. Well I didn’t see poroti’s effort but my reaction would be the same. It’s the sort of thing that’s expected of a teenager, but to those who have lived a little there should be more consideration.

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