YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor in Mordialloc, 51-49 in Frankston

Two Victorian election seat polls suggest a repeat of cliffhanger results from 2014.

The Herald Sun has two YouGov Galaxy seat polls for the Victorian election, these being robopolls conducted from sample of around 550 on Saturday and Sunday. Both target bellwether seats in the “sandbelt”, and both land bang on their 2014 election results. Labor leads 52-48 in Mordialloc (52.1-47.9 in 2014), from primary votes of Labor 41% (38.7%), Liberal 42% (43.8%), Greens 7% (7.9%). In Frankston, Labor clings to a 51-49 lead in a seat where they won 50.5-49.5 in 2014, but there is substantial movement on the primary vote, owing to a weaker independent presence this time. Labor is on 42%, up from 35.0%; the Liberals are on 43%, up from 35.8%, while the Greens are on 6%, down from 8.0%.

Also out today were the Legislative Council group ticket votes, on which I have a separate thread

104 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor in Mordialloc, 51-49 in Frankston”

  1. Meanwhile, elsewhere in the state, the campaign of Jenny O’Connor in Benambra has apparently got polling figures suggesting that the 1st prefs of sitting Lib Bill Tilley have dropped below 40%. If this is true, she’s a real chance to “Pull a McGowan” (or I guess more accurately in a Vic contest “Pull a Sheed”).

    I would be interested to see polling from Tammy Atkins in Ovens Valley also.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/13/were-taking-on-the-old-boys-rural-independents-shaking-up-the-victoria-election

    Both O’Connor and Atkins has links to Cathy McGowan’s campaign team.

  2. That would constitute a swing against the incumbent of 15% on Primary. Single seat posting by local players. I simply don’t believe it!

    Jen O’Çonnor used to post here on PB but joined the ratbags that tried to steal PB 10 years ago. She was a Kumbayah Green then. I doubt anything has changed.

  3. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/13/yougov-galaxy-52-48-labor-mordialloc-51-49-frankston/comment-page-1/#comment-3001518

    I don`t know what the the Greens` negotiation strategy is but such monster road projects may well be the sort of issue the Greens say to the ALP “If you want that kind of rubbish, you will have to either get supply and confidence from the Coalition or a majority at a new election, we will have no part of it”. The Greens are not a rubber stamp for the ALP and are under no obligation to be.

  4. One can only hope that the Greens will adopt the stance you propose. But, have the courage to shout it from the rafters prior to the election.

    My view is that the NE Link is an absolutely vital piece of infrastructure that locals want with a passion. The only real complaint is that it can’t be built sooner.

    Also, my take is that voters are sick of gridlock and the sort of nonsensical interference roll you are proposing for the Greens in a future “hung Parliament”. That approach if widely publicised would see them smashed at this election. So, go ahead a make my election.

    Voters want their Governments to get on with the job. Game playing for purely ideological purposes exposes the Greens as shallow opportunists that have no place in any responsible political role.

  5. Doubling down and supporting this candidate tells you everything that needs to be said about the opportunism, confusion and sanctimonious humbugs the Greens have always been.

    Greens standing by their man InFootscray despite admission that he wrote and performed “reprehensible” lyrics about women. He says he has been on a journey to change @abcmelbourne

  6. @Tom

    So what you’re saying is The Greens could bring down the government and force a new election by voting with the Liberals in a no confidence motion. And then voting with the Liberals again to block any confidence motion in the eight day window required.

    Now this new election would almost certainly see the Liberals romp it home on a line of “strong and stable majority government.” The same thing that got the Hodgman reelected so comfortably in Tasmania not too long ago.

    And then what would we have. Why, we’d have a North-East link! And not only that, an East-West Link as well!

  7. Posted on Samantha Ratnam’s Facebook page:

    [We absolutely condemn the song lyrics from the band Angus McAlpine-Greens for Footscray was a part of many years ago in his late teens and early 20s.

    The lyrics are repulsive and damaging, and have no place in our community, and Angus has acknowledged these words are completely unacceptable, and deeply regrets them.

    A number of years ago, Angus made a conscious decision to turn his back on a toxic and damaging culture. He went on a journey of change and wants to help others do the same.

    I believe in the capacity for people to change, and Angus is a demonstration of how people can turn their life around. Angus is committed to the Greens values of equality and peace and will continue as the Greens candidate for Footscray.]

    As a reminder, the lyrics advocated for rape.

    If this was a Labor candidate and was excused because of a “conscious decision to turn his back on a toxic and damaging culture” The Greens would be (rightly) howling from the rooftops. This is an absolute disgrace.

  8. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/13/yougov-galaxy-52-48-labor-mordialloc-51-49-frankston/comment-page-2/#comment-3001646

    The North East Link is a project that would, if built dump tens of thousands of cars a day into inner-Melbourne, as well as areas surrounding the proposed road, significantly worsening congestion and pollution. It would also destroy lots of parkland, homes and businesses and the Doncaster Rail Reserve down the middle of the Eastern Freeway

    The Westgate Tunnel would, if not stopped, also dump tens of thousands of cars a day in inner-Melbourne.

    Road building just creates more traffic.

  9. @3z, the Greens would reason that Labor isn’t going to give up government because of a road project when they already have other roads on the go and enough other infrastructure projects to keep busy. Consequently Labor would back down before it comes to that. As you say – there’s an eight day window for them to change their mind.

    The Greens seem singularly incapable of any form of compromise. I assume they live in fear of the death of the Democrats. But it is not an endearing quality. Why should 42 people yield at every turn to four?

  10. North East Link if done properly would not dump tens of thousands of cars a day into inner-Melbourne, and would in fact give the capacity to reorganise the road network to greater support active and public transport.

    It’s not a roads bad, trains good situation in any way whatsoever.

    Do I support NE Link? Absolutely!
    Do I support the current alignment? No!

  11. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/13/yougov-galaxy-52-48-labor-mordialloc-51-49-frankston/comment-page-2/#comment-3001772

    The Greens exist to advance policies. As the 2010-2013 Commonwealth Parliament showed, the Greens can work with the ALP. It was the constant leaks from within the government, every time the government got an decent improvement in the polls, that did the harm. The ACT also shows the Greens working with the ALP in Government. The Greens are willing to compromise, when the ALP compromise with them rather than expect them to rubber stamp everything the ALP does usually expect as if they were ALP party-room members.

  12. OK, so we’ve had seat polling of Sandbelt seats (all bar Carrum – which is potentially going to be the tightest race of the set), and of Prahran/Richmond over the last few weeks.

    Will we get polling in Lib-held marginals? Sth Barwon, Bass and Ripon?

    And will we get polling in Geelong, besides the Addy wandering the street and asking a few randos what they think of Lyons?

    How many of the above do people here reckon have been done already by the Libs and Labs, but kept close to their chests?

  13. If the Greens were dumb enough to vote down an ALP government, I expect many of their voters would be very disappointed and in that case, they would be probably be voting themselves out of office. People get very angry with whoever forced them back to the ballot box without reason. One of the reasons parties usually do much more poorly when a member resigns in byelections vs when a member dies (or resigns for clear health reasons).

  14. Expat – We are not exactly getting much polling at all. Last election there were a dozen state level polls published during the election. So far with 11 days to go – Zero.

    As for up in states North East in Benambra, a swing of that much is not unprecedented when it is for a rural independent. Clearly the Liberal party in the area is not too in touch with the community.

    As for Pascoe Vale and the potential for an independent win, that would be virtually unprecedented. There has only been one independent elected in a Metro electorate at a general election in Victoria since 1955 and that was in 1967 when Jack Mutton was not pre-selected by the ALP for his Dad old seat of Coburg.

  15. There you go. Another Greens Candidate scandal.

    Good day for @VictorianGreens candidate for S’ham Dominic Phillips admitting that as a young bloke he liked a whole swag of facebook groups that degraded women and were racist. Follows Footscray rapper-turned candidates apology for “reprehensible” lyrics #springst @abcmelbourne

  16. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/13/yougov-galaxy-52-48-labor-mordialloc-51-49-frankston/comment-page-2/#comment-3001774

    The road network can be reorganised to support active and public transport without any new capacity for private non-active transport. In fact not building road capacity is better for increasing active and public transport because there is more money for and less alternative to public and active transport.

    https://www.ptua.org.au/myths/sustroads/

    If roads capacity is increased , it is bad for public and active transport.

    https://www.ptua.org.au/myths/compete/

  17. Tom the first and best @ #66 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 7:19 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/13/yougov-galaxy-52-48-labor-mordialloc-51-49-frankston/comment-page-2/#comment-3001774

    The road network can be reorganised to support active and public transport without any new capacity for private non-active transport. In fact not building road capacity is better for increasing active and public transport because there is more money for and less alternative to public and active transport.

    https://www.ptua.org.au/myths/sustroads/

    If roads capacity is increased , it is bad for public and active transport.

    https://www.ptua.org.au/myths/compete/

    Doo da!

  18. So – seeing as we’re getting almost zero polling this time, the question is… why?

    Aren’t the papers interested? Or are they avoiding publishing polls that don’t fit their anti-Andrews agenda?

    I assume the parties are doing internal polling… one would think that something should leak eventually.

  19. Expat @ #68 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 7:37 pm

    So – seeing as we’re getting almost zero polling this time, the question is… why?

    Aren’t the papers interested? Or are they avoiding publishing polls that don’t fit their anti-Andrews agenda?

    I assume the parties are doing internal polling… one would think that something should leak eventually.

    It’s all over Red Rover!

    Labor win comfortably.

  20. I guess if the internal polling was telling the parties anything different we would hearing about it. If Liberals internal polls were even showing a 53-47 lose they would start crowing about a “narrowing”. But if they are showing a massacre is under way, the ALP would hold that very close to their chest as they don’t want to give the inner city voters an excuse to go Green.

  21. Expat

    Am in the seat of South Barwon, have been receiving heaps in the mail and had Cheeseman knocking on the door on the weekend. Katos has been invisible thus far.

    I would not be surprised if Damien Cole an Independent based in Torquay gets up. Massive issues with over development down on the Surf Coast which makes up a large portion of the seat.

  22. It is very hard for an independent to get up in a marginal seat because the major parties rarely have overtakeable 3 candidate preferred vote (usually key to an independent win) and concentrate campaigning efforts and policies to win them.

  23. @taylormade

    Thanks for the local knowledge. We know that Sth Barwon is a Labor priority – so it’s crazy that Katos wouldn’t be trying to fight them off… The Libs drop seats like that, they’re cactus.

    Which way does Cole lean in terms of Lib vs Lab preferences? Or more to the point, which of those will he steal more 1st prefs from?

    Also – the Greens last time I think picked up nearly 20% of 1st prefs in Torquay and Jan Juc. Are they likely to go across to Cole?

  24. Would struggle to believe that the ScoMo circus and Guy turning up at a wake to make political points is going to go down well with Victorians.

    They are taking up where they left off in Wentworth- stunts when people are screaming out for policies and leadership.

  25. Herald Scum has marginal seat polling on Geelong where Independent muppet Lyons is on 15% and Labor at %40.

    Also apparently Labor is doing well in Richmond. No further details yet, just what I saw on front page.

  26. Greensborough Growler @ #65 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 7:00 pm

    There you go. Another Greens Candidate scandal.

    Good day for @VictorianGreens candidate for S’ham Dominic Phillips admitting that as a young bloke he liked a whole swag of facebook groups that degraded women and were racist. Follows Footscray rapper-turned candidates apology for “reprehensible” lyrics #springst @abcmelbourne

    Honestly, who the fuck cares?

    I know for a fact I’ve ‘liked’ a bunch of similar pages from my teenage days on Facebook back in the late 2000’s. Does it mean my views are totally abhorrent towards women or minorities, or that I’m a racist bastard nearly a decade later? Absolutely not.

    I wouldn’t even know how to find out if I have ‘liked’ these sorts of pages, given how much of a maze Facebook can be when trying to find things.

    I would love to see this sort of Facebook “fine tooth” analysis of pages ‘liked’ by candidates of all parties, not just the Greens. It’d be problem for every party, if indeed it can be called a problem.

  27. Encouraging numbers for ALP, really interested in how they get to 2PP in Geelong.

    #Galaxy Poll VIC State Seat of Richmond 2 Party Preferred: ALP 54 (+2.1 since election) GRN 46 (-2.1) #vicvotes #auspol

    #Galaxy Poll VIC State Seat of Richmond Primary Votes: ALP 49 (+15.7 since election) GRN 42 (+10.5) #vicvotes #auspol

    #Galaxy Poll VIC State Seat of Geelong 2 Party Preferred: ALP 56 (0 since election) LIB 44 (0) #vicvotes #auspol

    #Galaxy Poll VIC State Seat of Geelong Primary Votes: ALP 40 (-1.0 since election) LIB 28 (-9.8) Lyons IND 15 (+15) GRN 11 (-1.0) #vicvotes #auspol

  28. @dayks11

    You have to admit, to have 4 candidates in a week getting into similar troubles shows party doesn’t have a proper vetting process and looks so amateurish.

    What is worse Greens party has been struggling with allegations of sexual harassment and their ex-leader Greg Barber left under some not so pleasant allegations. There seems to be a bit of toxicity and cultural issues in Greens. This is on the same day a civil war is erupting in NSW over sexual harassment.

    Footscray Greens candidate’s rap lyrics are downright disgusting and a huge insult to women that were victims of abuse and rape. To see Samantha Ratnam getting in front of TV cameras and backing in this bloke was one of those campaign moments.

  29. Gorks @ #80 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:46 am

    @dayks11

    You have to admit, to have 4 candidates in a week getting into similar troubles shows party doesn’t have a proper vetting process and looks so amateurish.

    Yes I totally agree.

    What is worse Greens party has been struggling with allegations of sexual harassment and their ex-leader Greg Barber left under some not so pleasant allegations. There seems to be a bit of toxicity and cultural issues in Greens. This is on the same day a civil war is erupting in NSW over sexual harassment.

    To be fair, this is not unique to the Greens – as NSW Labor and the Federal Libs have shown. Obviously this is not an excuse for the horrible behaviour, but it is an indication of a systemic problem in politics in general.

    Footscray Greens candidate’s rap lyrics are downright disgusting and a huge insult to women that were victims of abuse and rape. To see Samantha Ratnam getting in front of TV cameras and backing in this bloke was one of those campaign moments.

    Yes I agree, though I can see merit in sticking by a bloke who has been trying to turn himself around. And I can see where he’s coming from in trying to be an advocate for change in the underground rap culture he was a part of.

  30. dayks11 @ #78 Wednesday, November 14th, 2018 – 10:39 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #65 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 7:00 pm

    There you go. Another Greens Candidate scandal.

    Good day for @VictorianGreens candidate for S’ham Dominic Phillips admitting that as a young bloke he liked a whole swag of facebook groups that degraded women and were racist. Follows Footscray rapper-turned candidates apology for “reprehensible” lyrics #springst @abcmelbourne

    Honestly, who the fuck cares?

    I know for a fact I’ve ‘liked’ a bunch of similar pages from my teenage days on Facebook back in the late 2000’s. Does it mean my views are totally abhorrent towards women or minorities, or that I’m a racist bastard nearly a decade later? Absolutely not.

    I wouldn’t even know how to find out if I have ‘liked’ these sorts of pages, given how much of a maze Facebook can be when trying to find things.

    I would love to see this sort of Facebook “fine tooth” analysis of pages ‘liked’ by candidates of all parties, not just the Greens. It’d be problem for every party, if indeed it can be called a problem.

    Mainstream voters.

  31. Gorks

    Really interesting numbers. On Richmond – this is why I was not that concerned with the Liberals “threatening” to not run in all those inner city seats. I don’t think it harms Labor’s chances much if at all – but it certainly brings down the Liberal Upper House vote. I am actually comfortable with the notion of the Coalition abandoning all inner city seats state and federal nationwide that they think they can never win, and leaving them essentially as a “two-horse race” between Labor and The Greens. Then who Labor or The Greens “preference” becomes completely irrelevant.

    Amazing that Darren Lyons can get 15% in Geelong – but he was popular with a lot of people despite his later problems. If he finished ahead of the Greens, and then their preferences (and some from the four other minor candidates) took him ahead of the Liberals, he could even go close!

  32. Expat

    Story lead from Geelong Advertiser

    LABOR PUTS LIBERALS BEFORE LYONS
    IN a sign Labor views Darryn Lyons as its greatest threat in the seat of Geelong, incumbent MP Christine Couzens is urging voters to put the ex-mayor last on the ballot paper.

    Of course where Labor preferences Lyons is completely irrelevant, as their votes will never be distributed. But they are probably trying to send a signal that he is the one to beat. Maybe that will help their cause?

    Don’t know how the Libs or Greens are preferencing. If I could open the actual article it may have some info from HTV cards at pre-poll centre.

  33. Strange that no one is taking to task the Labor party for its preferencing the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (with their anti gun control law, favouring of offshore detention of asylum seekers, and opposition to any treaty with the First Peoples in Victoria/Australia), the extreme right wing oddly named Liberal Democrats, and a bunch of Glen Duery micro parties licorice assortment lot ahead of the Greens in a number of Legislative Council regions. So much for Labor’s more progressive approach in Victoria!! The current above the line system of voting in Victoria’s Upper house is appalling. People vote above the line without having a clue as to where their preferences will end up. I doubt if many Labor voters want to have more right wing extremists elected and given a measure of public presence ahead of the progressive Greens, yet that is what is a real possibility given how the Labor party has operated in the 2018 Victorian state election. It is apparent that the Labor party operatives are on a clip the wings of the Greens operation. They may well find in the long term that such an approach only draws more progressive people to identify with the Greens, who, refuse to consort with political parties that share no commitment to progressive policies.

  34. And one more extraordinary preference arrangement by Labor…..in the Morwell seat, Labor has preferenced SF&F second and the Greens at the bottom on 8!!! Talk about getting into bed with the gun lobby!!!

  35. Robbo

    I would say that Labor are exercising a version of the game theory “Tit for Tat” – saying to the Greens that if they want to fight Labor for inner city Lower House seats they will pay a price in the Upper House. This happened Federally with the Senate Greens going backwards in 2016, while they were using lots of resources trying to unseat a few inner city Labor members, unsuccessfully as it turned out – a net loss of one MP for all their work.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tit_for_tat

    I don’t claim to understand how Labor make these decisions. I similarly struggle to understand from a “political beliefs” point of view how the Greens in their Upper House tickets have Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party and the Aussie Battler Party ahead of Labor in about half of the eight regions, and behind Labor in the others. I can’t imagine the candidates for those parties are so very different between the different regions.

  36. Robbo says:
    Wednesday, November 14, 2018 at 4:31 pm
    And one more extraordinary preference arrangement by Labor…..in the Morwell seat, Labor has preferenced SF&F second and the Greens at the bottom on 8!!! Talk about getting into bed with the gun lobby!!!

    Especially since the same mob is running ads on radio urging voters to put Labor last. I heard two of them in the space of half an hour on 3aw this afternoon. Both of them began with “Not happy Dan” (a play on the old yellow pages ad from years ago which led to the saying “Not happy Jan”) and went on to list several issues which they were dissatisfied with. They might as well have been straight from the Liberal party playbook.

  37. @Robbo

    Actually, plenty of people *are* taking the ALP to task for preferencing the Shooters – the Greens have been flogging it hard on social media. But mainstream media hasn’t made any mention.

    Although I’m not a Greens member myself, I have plenty of friends who lean that way – and I’ve seen them all posting to encourage below-the-line voting this year, far more than ever before.

  38. Word on the street is someone has been polling the Eastern Metro marginials of Ringwood, Box Hill and Forrest Hill. Why? Nobody is really expecting any them to fall, are they? Is the ScoMo effect burning that badly?

  39. Random realisation – I kept thinking I knew Oscar Yildiz’s name from somewhere… it finally twigged that I met him through footy maybe 20 years ago, because he was organising a Turkish community team for a multicultural tournament or something. He was associated with Coburg…

    …which would mean he’s probably mates with Phil Cleary. Probably not a coincidence that he’s gone the route he has, then?

  40. Morewell is easily explained as to why the SFF got put number 2 on the ALP HTV – the candidate is former senator (and firmer local CFMEU member) Ricky Muir. He is generally not seen to be massive gun loon….

    As for Geelong, Lyon was sacked for workplace bullying. The ALP can hardly whitewash that away and preference him.

  41. I met Ricky Muir about a year ago, at a community meeting that also included Shooters upper house member Jeff Bourman and Nats lower house member for East Gippy Tim Bull.

    He told me then that he was running for Morwell (can’t remember if it had been publicly announced yet) and said the Shooters reckoned at the time that a) he was a legitimate shot at winning the seat and b) they may even hold balance of power if they did.

    At the time I thought he was dreaming, but in light of the mess Morwell’s field of candidates has become…

    As for Labor preferencing the Shooters at #2 in Morwell, I don’t think it’s specifically trying to suck up to the gun nuts, I think it’s just being pragmatic – they want to split the conservative vote enough between Muir, the Libs, the Nats, Northe and the other bloke whose name I forget, then whoever finally ends up second will start a fair way behind them on first prefs, and once everything has finished leaking (Lund and Greens prefs should go Labor, but so may a lot of the Shooters, and even some of the other indy ones) they might just scrape in.

  42. FWIW though – the ALP’s how to vote card for Morwell doesn’t seem to appear on the VEC website – is it available elsewhere?

    The Greens have Tracie Lund #2, ALP #3, North #4 and then the Ricky Muir at #5… seems they see Muir as a lesser evil than the Libs and Labs also.

    The “other bloke” whose name I couldn’t remember is Burgess, he’s basically running on a climate denier platform, saying that magically the coal industry is going to reboot and save the Latrobe Valley. Can’t see more than 5% or so of the electorate falling for that – people are angry at Hazelwood closing, but deep down they know it’s a dead end. But he is at #2 on Northe’s HTV.

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