YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor in Mordialloc, 51-49 in Frankston

Two Victorian election seat polls suggest a repeat of cliffhanger results from 2014.

The Herald Sun has two YouGov Galaxy seat polls for the Victorian election, these being robopolls conducted from sample of around 550 on Saturday and Sunday. Both target bellwether seats in the “sandbelt”, and both land bang on their 2014 election results. Labor leads 52-48 in Mordialloc (52.1-47.9 in 2014), from primary votes of Labor 41% (38.7%), Liberal 42% (43.8%), Greens 7% (7.9%). In Frankston, Labor clings to a 51-49 lead in a seat where they won 50.5-49.5 in 2014, but there is substantial movement on the primary vote, owing to a weaker independent presence this time. Labor is on 42%, up from 35.0%; the Liberals are on 43%, up from 35.8%, while the Greens are on 6%, down from 8.0%.

Also out today were the Legislative Council group ticket votes, on which I have a separate thread

104 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor in Mordialloc, 51-49 in Frankston”

  1. Hi William, did you manage to get any further details on the ReachTEL poll commissioned by Goongerah on Prahran, Bentleigh & Richmond? That had a few interesting primary vote results and I’d be interested to know what the 2PP results were.

    I was called for that poll so I can confirm that a Labor v Liberal 2PP question was definitely asked, but no Greens v Liberal question (I’m in Prahran) – however the primary votes published had The Greens third anyway.

  2. Cool thanks! Part of the reason I found the few results that were published so interesting was because they were very similar to the Bike Australia poll of Prahran from about a week earlier, which at the time I thought sounded way off the mark so probably meaningless. But maybe not if a second poll was so consistent with it.

  3. @Toby Esterhase

    assuming that the greens gain brunswick and richmond (i can’t see this not happening), then even if there was no change between the major parties (which these polls are roughly indicating) then labor is already in hung parliament territory.

    Then there is pascoe vale, which is being strongly challenged by an independent.

    I just cannot see labor getting to 45.

  4. I would hardly call the Greens getting two seats a hung parliament. Does anyone really think the Greens would coalition with Guy? Would their supporters vote for them again if they did? Worst case that would be a Labor minority government.

    Despite all that has happened, I cannot see how the Liberals will regain government.

  5. Thanks William

    Do you have any off the top of your head idea of the margin of error based on those sample sizes – ie around 550 for each electorate I assume?

  6. Unitary State @ #6 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 2:35 am

    @Toby Esterhase

    assuming that the greens gain brunswick and richmond (i can’t see this not happening), then even if there was no change between the major parties (which these polls are roughly indicating) then labor is already in hung parliament territory.

    Then there is pascoe vale, which is being strongly challenged by an independent.

    I just cannot see labor getting to 45.

    Every poll I’m seeing shows the Greens vote stagnating or going backwards. Historically, polls over represent Greens votes. Even these seat polls show that the Labour’s primaries are gaining but the Greens vote is going nowhere. The preferences look like the Greens will have their numbers diminished in the Upper house. This State election is shaping up very poorly for the Greens and they’ll likely be the biggest losers on election night.

    Whatever mood change is going on in the electorate is not transferring any support to the Greens.

  7. The panel below shows Labor both federally and in Victoria at $1.25

    I would understand that Liberal Party internal polling is not to expectation hence the stepping up of their attack advertising, advertising which may appeal to their “base” but may not appeal elsewhere

  8. Apparently Kennett has written an article in the Australian today suggesting there’s going to be an upset. He’d have access to internal polling so I’m starting to feel a bit uneasy. Really wish another public poll was released.

  9. @Socrates

    I never said that the greens would coalition with Guy. I know they won’t.

    Im just talking about how labor is far from home and hosed. They will no doubt face huge political difficulties in the event of being kicked into minority government….For instance, they would likely have to cancel the northeastern freeway and replace the metro loop project with a metro tunnel from newport to clifton hill. To name a few.

  10. @Greensborough Growler

    The greens vote is going backwards in middle run and outer run suburbs, but is continuing to rise in the inner city. That has been a trend for quite a few years now. I still anticipate that labor will lose brunswick and northcote.

  11. Greens could lose 2 Upper House seats and Prahan even if they maintain their level of support from the last election. The were very lucky to get a couple of those seats last time.

    Disappointed to see that the anti democratic abomination of group voting tickets is still in use in Victoria.

  12. @Doug

    like i said, any swing against the greens in prahran would likely just go the libs – and vice versa.

    I can’t possibly see labor gaining it.

    I don’t believe the polls from the bikers

  13. Unitary State @ #18 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 10:00 am

    @Greensborough Growler

    The greens vote is going backwards in middle run and outer run suburbs, but is continuing to rise in the inner city. That has been a trend for quite a few years now. I still anticipate that labor will lose brunswick and northcote.

    Rose coloured glass piffle.

    Greens are not on the rise anywhere.

  14. @Unitary State

    Why would Labor have to cancel the Suburban Rail Roop in favour of the Greens Metro 2 in. A minority government situation?

    And why would they need to cancel the North East Link? The Liberals want a different route, but I can’t see them doing anything that would cause the whole project to be cancelled.

  15. I feel there is a misunderstanding regarding minority governments. In a minority government, it isn’t the 3rd party that gets everything they want. The 1st party is still in charge, they just need to make up the numbers for their policies. These numbers don’t need to come from the party or independents that officially supported them, they could come from anyone, including the 2nd major party.

  16. I think the vic electorate is pretty bolshie and Andrews is not well loved. The Herald Sun is overwhelming negative towards him and is going hard. Guy can do no wrong in their eyes. It will be close and I think there’s a good chance Guy could scrape in. Labor is on a waffer-thin margin and vulnerable in some of the sand-belt seats with limited opportunity to pick up other seats. In the end, I think the ‘Labour DLP’ name will see the libs win some ultra-marginals on preferences due to people voting for the wrong party as they did for the Liberal Democratic Party. The best hope labor has is to link Guy to the feds.

    it’s going to be a nervous election night and I don’t think we’ll have a result for days.

    nutters controlling the upper house seems likely – there are just so many of them.

  17. Disappointed to see that the anti democratic abomination of group voting tickets is still in use in Victoria.

    As Mr Bowe has noted:

    • The Greens have not done at all well: the Druery network parties have them last or near to last, as usual; Labor has them behind a number of left and, in places, not-so-left concerns (Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, Shooters Fishers and Farmers and the Liberal Democrats); Animal Justice favours left-wing micro-parties over them.

    To put SFF, a party that wants to relax gun laws, before the Greens, says it all about who Labor will get in bed with to keep power.

  18. @sustainable future

    Why would the Labour DLP party cause people to preference Labor below Liberal?

    I can understand if it causes people who wanted to vote Labor to vote the LDLP 1 by mistake, but to make the second mistake of voting Labor well down the list seems unlikely.

  19. @Pegasus

    The Greens are preferencing Hinch, the Aussie Battlers and Hudson 4 NV above Labor in a number of regions.

    They even have a deal with the Shooters to put them ahead of the Liberals in five regions and in Morwell in return for favourable preference flows for Sam Dunn in East Metro and Huong Truong in West Metro.

    What does that say about the Greens, the party of doing politics differently?

  20. Unitary State – There was a second Prahran poll commissioned by a different group about a week later too, and that had very similar results. Collapse in the Liberal PV by 11-12% in both polls a week apart, totalling over 1000 respondants between them.

    I think that’s way overstated, but I imagine there will definitely be a swing against the Liberals in Prahran. Whoever comes second out of Labor & The Greens should beat the Liberals more comfortably in the 2CP count this time, probably closer to 53-47 I imagine.

    4 out of the 6 suburbs in the electorate are left leaning (3 of them very much so – well over 60% 2CP). The Liberal stronghold in Toorak is tiny, so the Liberals really rely on a strong result in South Yarra which to their advantage is by far the largest & most populated suburb in the electorate. A roughly 55-45 result in South Yarra like 2014 wasn’t quite enough to get them over the line, and demographic changes in South Yarra are working against them. In the 2016 Federal election the Greens v Liberal 2CP across South Yarra booths in Higgins & Melbourne Ports was 51-49 in favour of the Greens. Not saying that will be replicated in Prahran this month, federal & state are very different, but I also don’t see them improving on 2014’s result in the current climate with the Liberal Party’s brand damage and lurch to the right.

    I predict a very close Labor v Greens contest in the 3CP count and then a more comfortable 2CP margin vs the Liberals.

  21. @3z

    the greens want the northeast link cancelled. Thats why. They will highlight the deals between daniel andrews and transurban openly. Also, the bulleen route means that the doncaster rail on the median strip can never be built. If it is another route (as the libs propose), it will be possible.

  22. There is a lot of feelopinions here. Herald Sun + The Australian would already be factored in.

    Terrorist incident was bad news for Labor because it was winning the campaign. Unclear if it will move votes and if it does which way.

    So far all of the opinion polling, whether marginal seat or statewide has been good for Labor. The rest is our feeling and opinions which doesn’t reflect the community because we are political and news junkies.

  23. @Greensborough Growler

    Demographic changes in footscray mean that the labor vote will decline and equally transfer to the libs and greens in the future – but they will no doubt hold it this time.

  24. C’mon William, you write:

    “Both target bellwether seats in the “sandbelt”, and both land bang on their 2014 election results. Labor leads 52-48 in Mordialloc (52.1-47.9 in 2014), from primary votes of Labor 41% (38.7%), Liberal 42% (43.8%), Greens 7% (7.9%). In Frankston, Labor clings to a 51-49 lead in a seat where they won 50.5-49.5 in 2014, but there is substantial movement on the primary vote, owing to a weaker independent presence this time. Labor is on 42%, up from 35.0%; the Liberals are on 43%, up from 35.8%, while the Greens are on 6%, down from 8.0%.”

    Mordialloc: Labor is supposed to be returned there with a virtually identical 2PP after increasing their primary vote by 2.3% and the Libs decreasing it by 1.8%, with the Greens decreasing their primary vote by 0.9%…. Yeah, sure. Labor will certainly be returned in Mordialloc on those primary vote percentages, but most likely with an increased 2PP.

    Frankston: Labor is supposed to jump in their primary vote from 35% at the last election to a current 42%…. an improvement of 7-bloody-%… but we are asked to believe that the 2PP will only improve by 0.5%…. Oh please, don’t make me laugh!

    On those results, it looks like a “hung-parliament-my-arse”…. It looks more like a win for the ALP with an increased majority.

    The ghost of Batman looms large….. Psephologists, take cover!

  25. @Alpo

    Wrong. Batman had its own dynamic in that there was no liberal candidate and that the majority of the primary vote drain went to labor, only a small proportion going to the greens. It is also a very different part of melbourne in that it is hipster, cosmopolitan and multicultrual – compared to the bellwether monocultural areas like frankston and mordialloc

  26. @Unitary State

    Who cares if the Greens oppose the North-East Link? They’re going to have a maximum of five seats. The balance of power (if they chance it) isn’t a veto. They have to vote with the Liberals to block anything.

    I don’t think the Liberals will risk voting with the Greens to block a road in the North Eastern suburbs. And the Greens voting with the Liberals is never good PR for either of them under any circumstances.

    If the Greens chance the balance of power, they have no leverage to force a Labor government to do anything given they have outright refused to side with the Liberals to make Matthew Guy premier.

  27. If, in a situation where the Greens had the balance of power (with no independents or others able to put either the ALP or Coalition in power) the ALP refused to deal with the Greens, then either the ALP has to support the Coalition (either with or without an agreement) or the are new elections. The Greens oppose the Coalition and would never support a confidence motion in a Coalition Government, would support a motion of no confidence in the Coalition Government and would be quite prepared to move a motion of no confidence in a Coalition Government, even if nobody else was.

  28. @Tom

    So you are saying that the Greens would not guarantee supply, then an election, at the risk of:

    a) A Liberal Government, or
    b) A Labor Government at the expense of Green seats?

    I guess you may be right on that one!

  29. While the Greens would never support the Coalition, that does not mean they would not play hardball with the balance of power if the ALP decided not to deal with them. The North East Link and Westgate Tunnel monstrosities would be high on the Greens list for government policy changes.

  30. @Tom

    What does hard ball look like here? What are they going to do?

    Are they going to threaten to team up with the Liberals to block some other signature Labor policy? I can’t imagine which.

  31. 3z @ #38 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 12:07 pm

    @Tom

    What does hard ball look like here? What are they going to do?

    Are they going to threaten to team up with the Liberals to block some other signature Labor policy? I can’t imagine which.

    There’s been enough gas emitted by Greens supporters this morning to replace all the coal powered electricity plants with a slightly less toxic fuel.

  32. @ Unitary State,
    Can easily see Labor getting to 50+. What about Ripon? Morwell? South Barwon? Burwood? Eildon? Bass? And why’s Guy spending so much time in the Liberals’ own seats in the eastern suburbs?

  33. “Batman had its own dynamic”…. allegedly favouring the Greens according to just about every body….

    Rule N.1 of life: Learn from past mistakes!

  34. @Gorks,
    I disagree. Anything that crowds out a state election campaign helps the government by depriving the opposition of a platform. Also, Morrison and Dutton being on the news can’t be helping Guy.

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