Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another turn of the polling screw against the Coalition, as formerly uncommitted respondents increasingly offer a negative view of the Prime Minister.

The fortnightly Essential poll — now appearing in Newspoll off weeks, praise be — follows Newspoll in recording Labor’s lead at 54-46, out from 53-47. Monthly personal ratings are better for Scott Morrison than Newspoll in that he remains in net positive territory, but the formerly undecided are breaking heavily against him, with his approval down two to 41% and disapproval up nine to 37%. Bill Shorten maintains his recent improving form, up five on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 44% – his second best result from the pollster in the past two years. However, the shift on preferred prime minister is relatively modest, with Morrison’s lead down from 42-27 to 41-29.

Other findings: 44% support Australia becoming a republic in principle, down four since May, with 32% opposed; 61% have a favourable view of Queen Elizabeth, 68% of Prince William, 70% of Prince Harry but only 33% of Prince Charles. The Guardian report is here; the full report from Essential Research, including primary votes, will be with us later today. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1028.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here, and the primary vote shifts are on the high end from what you’d expect out of a one-point shift on two-party preferred: the Coalition is down two to 36%, and Labor up two to 39%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,958 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. ‘The Greens seem hopelessly conflicted. Do they want to be party of the left or a party of the centre right. ‘
    This is, of course, what ultimately destroyed the Democrats. They went from being a neutral ‘keep the b*stards honest’ – whoever the b*stards at the time happened to be – to trying to be a party of government.

    The Greens had the choice of playing the same role environmentally – keeping the pressure on whoever was in government to consider the environmental impacts of their policies – but have opted for being players.

    The Democrats went from being a major political force to non existence basically in one election (they only clung on because some of their Senators were not up for re election).

  3. Came back after a day and this tedious repetitive anti-Greens nonsense is still going on, and as illogical as ever. Could you at least talk about policies, or something else with substance?

  5. Interesting that talking about the Greens prospects in the State election doesn’t classify as politics – or even something with substance.

  6. zoomster

    The Greens had the choice of playing the same role environmentally – keeping the pressure on whoever was in government to consider the environmental impacts of their policies – but have opted for being players.

    De Natali was clear about that. I feel that the Greens are now trading dishonestly. I’m very disappointed in them.

  8. Thanks ratsak. Laundy was also part of Turnbull’s ‘praetorian guard’ (his choice of words), so that could be another reason for him to hang up his boots.

  9. Kukuru – am praying Laundy goes — Sam Crosby will be a real Labor asset and with Laundy out of the way, his chances jump considerably (although I did think Sam would win anyway)

  10. A Victorian state school employee is being investigated after he brought firearms into class, baked a cake with a swastika on it and let a student dress up in his Nazi hat.

    During a history lesson on World War II, the Dromana Secondary College employee also let students play with a Zyklon B gas canister, which once contained a chemical used to kill Jews.

    The items were part of his personal collection of military memorabilia, and he also let the students handle rifles, helmets and uniforms once used by Australian troops.

    The Education Department is investigating the incident, which it described as a “serious error of judgement”.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/uproar-after-nazi-hats-gas-canisters-and-swastika-cake-used-in-class-20181107-p50emr.html

  11. P1,

    Me, wrong? I fail to see how that can be possible. It’s not my fault if the rest of the world sometimes refuses to acknowledge the veracity of my wisdom.

    It’s like religion. My belief system is the true faith, while everybody else’s is a load of superstitious twaddle.

  12. Self-styled preference whisperer Glenn Druery faces a potential criminal investigation as police consider a complaint about his cash-for-votes operation ahead of this month’s state election.

    As The Age revealed last month, Reason Party MP Fiona Patten lodged a complaint with the Victorian Electoral Commission against Mr Druery, who also works as a staffer to Justice Party founder Senator Derryn Hinch.

    Ms Patten raised questions about the blurring of Mr Druery’s roles as both a businessman dealing in votes and a taxpayer-funded adviser to Senator Hinch.

    She said Mr Druery asked her team for a $5000 upfront fee to join his “family” of minor parties and a success fee of $50,000 for each candidate elected.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/preference-whisperer-glenn-druery-faces-police-probe-20181107-p50emb.html

  14. Xoanon says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 11:34 am
    Came back after a day and this tedious repetitive anti-Greens nonsense is still going on, and as illogical as ever. Could you at least talk about policies, or something else with substance?

    There’s no anti-G nonsense being aired here. There’s a consideration of campaigns, their execution and their consequences. This is politics. There are many – I do not doubt it – who disagree with my analysis of G campaigns. However, I’ve never yet read a sensible, persuasive critique of my arguments. Plenty of G-leaning bludgers give the reasons why they support the party of their choice. Fair enough. I do not question their attachments. But this is not the same thing as understanding the behaviour of voters generally or the effect of G campaigns on specific groups of voters, and still less does it account for the decay in G electoral support.

    I can see the historic Labor plurality being restored, one vote at a time, after many years of attrition. The campaigns of Labor’s competitors – the speech of anti-Labor voices – have a role in this. It’s well worth reflecting on and understanding all this. It’s political history in the making.

  16. Hey X,
    They go like this about the Greens or accuse each other of being a bully, when there are limited opinion polls.

    As much like dairy cattle that have missed their milking – bellowing, stamping hooves and locking horns.

    No wonder a great many many just lurk for BK’s morning service to the community, the odd alert or rumour and amazingly at all too infrequent intervals – some insightful policy critique.

    Coming on here is just too hard.

  17. IMO
    The gist of the matter is that the Tele has not met basic journalistic or defamation law standards.
    IMO, the two main witnesses for the defence contradicted themselves and each other.
    IMO, the hearsay evidence on which the article was based was also contradicted in a major way by the main witness for the defence.
    IMO, the three witnesses for the prosecution gave evidence that was internally consistent. Further, none of them contradicted the others in any way at all.
    But, Rush is an old, white male.
    Therefore some people know he is guilty.
    Regardless, IMO, the Tele’s owners had better prepare themselves for a financial hammering.

  19. lizzie @ #1353 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 11:39 am

    zoomster

    The Greens had the choice of playing the same role environmentally – keeping the pressure on whoever was in government to consider the environmental impacts of their policies – but have opted for being players.

    De Natali was clear about that. I feel that the Greens are now trading dishonestly. I’m very disappointed in them.

    Little wonder the Greens don’t trust Labor on the environment given Rudd Labor tore down/terminated the clean energy legislation Milne and Gillard produced.

  21. James Oliphant‏Verified account @jamesoliphant

    White House just suspended @JimAcosta’s credentials. It’s on.

    Jim Acosta‏Verified account @Acosta

    I’ve just been denied entrance to the WH. Secret Service just informed me I cannot enter the WH grounds for my 8pm hit

  22. I can’t decide whether this Hun article means the youths were not ‘of african appearance’ or that the Huns doesn’t want to report that Vic police have caught the ‘african gang’ causing most of the sensation? it’ll spoil there whole fear campaign if the police/government have caught them.
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/law-order/teens-in-melbournes-northwest-charged-for-string-of-burglaries-car-thefts/news-story/e93428b3df3c39e0f9edc62206d0d2df

    if you need proof of bias, check the Oz’s recent coverage of the vic election.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/topics/victoria-election

  23. Lizzie
    As The Age revealed last month, Reason Party MP Fiona Patten lodged a complaint with the Victorian Electoral Commission against Mr Druery, who also works as a staffer to Justice Party founder Senator Derryn Hinch.

    Could this lead to High Court challenge for Hinch?

  26. Regardless, IMO, the Tele’s owners had better prepare themselves for a financial hammering.

    Yup. They’s on the fast train to Payoutsville with an added bus trip to Retraction City and Apologytown once they get there.

  27. Boer, the Gs run same/same themes all the time. Their candidate for Eden-Monaro used this device in his media release yesterday. One of the effects of this has been to encourage voters to leave Labor and align themselves with Right voices. As well, it encourages disaffected past Lib-voters to split in favour of Right-pop voices, such as ON, rather than to shift their allegiance to Labor.

    They are the grinch of Australian politics. Their impact has been entirely baleful.

  29. 1. Witnesses who say”I didn’t see anything” are of zero probitive value in proving or disproving an event.

    2. How does BB know what the judge is thinking.

    3. With the exception of Family Law cases, malicious accusations are quite rare.

    4. Those who strongly identify with the issue of malicious accusations are usually older white males.

    5. When child sexual abuse first arose as a major issue in schools during the ‘90s there was widespread (very widedpread) anxiety in men teachers that naughty kids that they’d disciplined would get even by making false allegations against teachers. Did not occur.

    6. Since this is a defamation case Rush V NewsCorp, whatever the outcome is will not specifically answer the question as to whether an assault took place. That would require a judge and jury and a Crown prosecutor and the application of NSW Criminal law, not Defamation law.

  31. Rudd’s terminating the carbon tax was nothing more than using lies to combat lies, which was terminating something that never existed in the first place, and instead was just about moving forward to the floating price in the ETS, which was always coming anyway.

  32. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 12:02 pm
    “… recent Lib-Lab Govts …”

    ————————————-

    Posting about unicorns yet again Rex?

    Please cite 1 Federal government since WW2 that has contained both Liberal and Labor ministers in the Cabinet.

    If you can, feel free to keep invoking this fabulous creature as you currently do.

    If you can’t, please be aware we all know you’re posting fantasy fan fiction under the guise of rhetorical “drive-by’s” yet again.

  33. So the Liberals will now run in every Victorian seat except Richmond. As I said yesterday – put it out there, and if the blowback is bad enough, retreat at the last moment (noon today) !

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/victorian-liberals-will-field-candidates-in-key-inner-melbourne-seats/news-story/721bc9d1f3bd01df7524cd675f939b63

    I am a bit disappointed they couldn’t stick with their original decision for even 24 hours.

  34. I think we should all donate to this worthy cause. Abbott still has his suicide vest on and thumb on the dead man switch ready to take them all out if he doesn’t get his way. Let’s help him ease the pressure on his thumb.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/08/tony-abbott-and-conservative-mps-campaign-to-take-back-control-of-liberal-party

    Labor needs to run the message that abbott will try to knife morrison after the election and will continue to destablise and whiteant until he gets the top job. They can say “Malcolm Tunrbull lacked the guts to stand up to abbott and his far right cabal. Mr Morrison played Mr Abbott and Mr Dutton to knife Mr Turnbull so he could get the top job. He now lacks the guts to stand up to them. They haven’t forgotten. They haven’t forgiven. They will be back undermining and plotting the day after the election. The only way to stop this is to vote out this muppet show, and if you are in Warringah or Dixon do the nation and the liberal parties a favour by voting these toxic clowns out of their seats.”

  35. Michael A @ #1378 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 12:13 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 12:02 pm
    “… recent Lib-Lab Govts …”

    ————————————-

    Posting about unicorns yet again Rex?

    Please cite 1 Federal government since WW2 that has contained both Liberal and Labor ministers in the Cabinet.

    If you can, feel free to keep invoking this fabulous creature as you currently do.

    If you can’t, please be aware we all know you’re posting fantasy fan fiction under the guise of rhetorical “drive-by’s” yet again.

    Perhaps you’d be better to focus more on the parliamentary voting records.

  36. ratsak @ #1375 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 12:05 pm

    Regardless, IMO, the Tele’s owners had better prepare themselves for a financial hammering.

    Yup. They’s on the fast train to Payoutsville with an added bus trip to Retraction City and Apologytown once they get there.

    And it will be the Tele’s perennial search for the humiliating piss-take pun to put on the front page that will be their ultimate undoing.

  40. The shameful stats re our first peoples.

    The shameful treatment imposed on refugees/asylum seekers.

    The shameful pollution of our environment.

    The shameful neglect of our socially vulnerable and underprivileged.

    30 years of Liberal and Labor Govts.

  41. C@t

    And it will be the Tele’s perennial search for the humiliating piss-take pun to put on the front page that will be their ultimate undoing.

    The Judge was hinting at that, I think.

    We have noticed how often the headlines in many papers do not match the story, but are written just for attention/clickbait.

  42. Boerwar

    There is no “prosecution”.
    Many here are construing this ss a criminal case.

    It is not. It is a Civil case, eith the court exercising its Equity jurisdiction, not its Criminal jurisdiction.

    Hence the process, and the standard of proof is different.

    I am surprised how many PB commenters have been attending court each day to hear the evidence, given all the detailed info posted here.

    Surely they are not just relying on MSM reports.

  43. It isn’t surprising that an out-of-touch older judge who’s led a sheltered life has difficulty understanding the nature of sexual harassment and why it is not acceptable in today’s workplaces. He really is a very naive man who is ill-suited to making decisions on this issue.

  44. Rex, you were speaking metaphorically, I see. That’s nice and sophisticated, for someone as unwilling to acknowledge the distinctions between Labor and Coalition policy as you are. I’m impressed.

  45. Rocket Rocket @ #1379 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 12:14 pm

    So the Liberals will now run in every Victorian seat except Richmond. As I said yesterday – put it out there, and if the blowback is bad enough, retreat at the last moment (noon today) !

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/victorian-liberals-will-field-candidates-in-key-inner-melbourne-seats/news-story/721bc9d1f3bd01df7524cd675f939b63

    Lib-Lab preference deal …?

  46. sustainable future says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 12:16 pm

    Labor will use any scarce available media time to talk about their own policies and the issues that matter to voters. Why would Labor be drawn into the details of Liberal warring? Apart from anything, that would suit Abbott down to the ground.

  47. So the Victorian Liberals have decided not to wedge their own long-suffering and increasingly bamboozled supporters. That’s a wise move on their part. Who will they pref? The Gs? Or Labor? Or neither?

  48. From the Guardian:

    “Jim Acosta, a White House correspondent for CNN, was questioning the president about his rhetoric when Trump tried to brush him off. Acosta continued asking questions into a microphone provided by the White House. A female staffer appeared to try to take the microphone from Acosta’s hand, but he held on. The staffer later successfully grabbed the microphone.”

    Subsequently, Sarah Sanders had Acosta’s access to the White House revoked for this claimed reason:

    “President Trump believes in a free press and expects and welcomes tough questions of him and his Administration. We will, however, never tolerate a reporter placing his hands on a young woman just trying to do her job as a White House intern…”

    Now in Nicholas’s world this revocation is fully justified, because any man who touches a woman without her consent, even while she is attacking him, is guilty of sexual harassment and assault. Nicholas should get a job on the White House staff to take the burden off Ms Sanders (but only if he transgenders first).

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