Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45

Labor’s lead is down slightly in Newspoll but well up in Ipsos, with improving personal ratings for Scott Morrison offering scant comfort for the Coalition.

Two new federal polls this evening:

• The Australian reports the first Newspoll in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 6% (steady). If I understand the report correctly, Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 45% and steady on 39% disapproval, Bill Shorten is up three to 35% and down three to 51%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 45-32 to 45-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1707.

• The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 53-47 to 55-45. After curiously low results for both major parties last month, this month’s primary vote figures have both on 35%, which is a one point increase in the Coalition’s case and a four point increase in Labor’s. The pollster continues to record implausibly strong results for the Greens, who are steady at 15%. Despite everything, Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up four to 50% and disapproval down three to 33%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 41% and up one to 49%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 48-35, out from 47-34 last time. The poll also finds 74% of respondents opposed to laws allowing religious schools to discriminate against gay students or teachers, and 45% in favour of a reduced immigration intake, compared with 23% who want it increased and 29% for it to remain as is. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,520 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45”

Comments Page 46 of 51
1 … 45 46 47 … 51

  2. If anyone wants to convince me their moral view on something is correct and that I should accept it as such, they need to come with something better than quotes from some bundle of ancient documents of unknown authorship, whose meaning has been contorted by millenia of dubious transcription and translation by scribes of unknown accuracy.

    Plus, why should I accept any text’s maxims as a sound basis for moral principles, just because it says so? Give me reasoned argument, backed by empirical evidence, any day.

    Just saying.

  3. Isn’t this just off shore detention without the camps?

    Labor, the Greens and enough of the crossbench are already against the government’s ‘life time ban’ on Nauru and Manus Island asylum seekers to keep the bill in purgatory, but New Zealand is also against it.

    The New Zealand’s Herald reports foreign minister and sometimes acting prime minister Winston Peters says it would create two tiers of NZ citizenship, which, obviously, NZ is against.

    From the NZ Herald story:

    Peters said that would, in effect, create one group of New Zealand citizens that could travel and work in Australia, and another group that could not.

    “We’re going to have to consider whether or not, as a result of our 2013 commitment (to offer to take 150 refugees from Nauru), we end up with people who are second-class citizens in New Zealand.

    “Do we, in our endeavour to be humanitarian about it, end up with a substandard level of citizenship, which is not what this country is about?”

    the Guardian blog

  4. Ronzy

    As the bible is a collection of stories that actually predate Christ by millennium altered as time goes by, there is actually no reason why the fall of Babylon could not refer to, the fall of Babylon.

    References to the Babylon god “Amon” has lasted a long long time.

  5. antonbruckner11

    That was me, i suspect.

    If you read early Christian writers the OT is interpreted as “prefiguring” Christ. It was not interpreted as laying down laws or rules for Christians. Indeed the Acts of Apostles made short work of that matter.

    It is not a coincidence that a literalist approach to scripture arises just after the invention of the printing press. Books were the consumer good of the era and were no longer so expensive.

    The need to have “authority” to justify a radical change in religion is also another reason for the prominence to the Book.

    The problem that literalists have with juggling contradictions between books and thhe different types of literature in the Bible make a nonsense of their approach.

  7. Ronzy
    “However, they were certainly egged on by the Jewish political and religious leaders. Even so, this is no reason to condemn all Jews for eternity”

    I’m so very glad you think so.

    “For those with even a basic knowledge of the political dynamics of the Roman Empire it becomes quite clear that Revelation is a prophesy about the fall of the Roman Empire…For me, it is a text (The word of God) which is imbued with life changing truth, which is imparted via either an historical narrative of the lives and example of those who have gone before me, or the use of powerful literary devices to make a point.”

    I’m not sure what kind of Christian this makes you, or even if you could be accounted a Christian at all, but I have found that this kind of biblical literary criticism is the most boring and unimaginative kind of intellectual masturbation and is certainly not practiced by the vast majority of adherents. Cheerio.

  8. It turns out Asperger, who the syndrome was named for, was a Nazi who sent children to be euthanised. So should we still use the term Asperger’s syndrome? Some people with autism are quite attached to the name (which is not the DSM name anymore, it’s autism spectrum disorder). Ironically autism gets it’s name from Asperger himself who described autistic psychopathy.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05112-1

  9. For those who keep records of such things, let me just say that chiselling up 38 square metres of old cork flooring that has become fossilized into the chipboard floor base over the years is probably the hardest, ugliest and most boring job of home renovation I have done in the last 10 years. Even burning off paint with a heat gun and scraper is more interesting.

    Yes, there were about 10 or so square metres where I was able to use a small 1500 watt jackhammer (after spending a couple of hours making a chiselling tool that didn’t disintegrate immediately AND which fitted into the proprietary chuck of the jackhammer).

    But for the rest of the floor it was inch by inch. There was a particular part where the original floor tradesman went insane with the cork glue. We (HI and I) got down to half a square metre in 2 hours with that awful stuff.

    The resulting surface has to be clean enough to eat your dinner off. There can be no divots or bumps when the new floating floor is being installed. So a rough “near enough” job is nowhere good enough. You have to be meticulous. Thank God for my Bosch multi-tool in that regard. It’s good at cleaning off the dags that the chisel leaves behind. And thank God I bought that particular semi-circular blade for it which I have had for a year, but never used until the last couple of days.

    For those wishing to make suggestions, it’s too late. We have only half a metre to go and the bloody nightmare is over. THREE days it’s taken us, and a couple of broken backs.

    Let me say that heat doesn’t work, jackhammer chisels don’t work (you need to make a special one, very thin and flexible, but not as it bends easily). I tried all kinds of exotic scrapers, but amazingly only one worked: the Uni-Pro “Genius Tool”, one of those 7-in-1 Demtel-type “wonder scrapers” sold in Bunnings that actually works better than its advertised.

    We tried everything else, but only the Genius Tool was set at the best angle for getting under the cork without skiving off it, and without digging into the floor, had the right-sized blade and handle, and was reliable and robust (i.e. didn’t disintegrate after half a dozen hammer blows).

    https://www.bunnings.com.au/uni-pro-genius-7-in-1-comfort-grip-multi-tool_p1661312

    After having spent three days on this job, I now regard myself as an expert, except that I will never do it again. Not if you bloody paid me. I’d rather put the jackhammer through my foot than do this one more time.

  12. Looks like the gillotine is being prepared..
    Simon Birmingham told David Speers on Sky that the decision to have a discussion about moving our Israeli embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem had been agreed upon by cabinet.

    “Yes,” he said in answer to Speers’s question on that.

    On Tuesday, Scott Morrison seemed to suggest he would be talking to cabinet about it – because it was only a discussion, and not a change in policy

  13. About 300mm of rain here over the last couple of days, pool filled, water tanks full.
    New house being built next door had a retaining wall fail and their shed has a metre at least of mud up the sides.

  14. Good afternoon all,

    I would think if there was one Canberra politican whose word you could accept without reservation it would be Pat Dodson.

    Cheers.

  17. Vogon Poet @ #2263 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 5:39 pm

    About 300mm of rain here over the last couple of days, pool filled, water tanks full.
    New house being built next door had a retaining wall fail and their shed has a metre at least of mud up the sides.

    Lucky buggers! That is the amount of rainfall we should have had in the last 3-4 months.

    Instead, we have had about 1/10th of that 🙁

  18. P1,
    we had a very dry winter, the waiting time for a truckload of water was 5 weeks and they were running day and night, I was down to 30cm or so in each tank and hadn’t ordered any. Was getting a bit anxious as forecast rain never eventuated, until the weekend .

  20. Vogon Poet @ #2268 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 5:48 pm

    we had a very dry winter, the waiting time for a truckload of water was 5 weeks and they were running day and night, I was down to 30cm or so in each tank and hadn’t ordered any. Was getting a bit anxious as forecast rain never eventuated, until the weekend .

    Well, we are at least not short of water for domestic use. The 30mm has been enough to keep our house tanks topped up … but our river has dried up and the farmers in our area have had to buy water.

    The drought is still a long way from being over here 🙁

  22. Roger Miller,

    Bushfire
    I did 4 rooms of parquet. Each piece about 1 inch by 2.

    Needless to say you’ll pay some poor bastard to do it next time. They need the work.

  23. Apologies if posted already…

    The Liberal party is in serious danger of losing the seat of Wentworth this weekend according to a new ReachTel poll that shows Liberal candidate Dave Sharma’s primary vote has slumped to 32.7%. The vote of high profile independent and local GP Kerryn Phelps has surged to 25.8%.

    Labor’s Tim Murray has also increased his share of the primary vote to 21.6%, compared with 19.5% in a ReachTel poll two weeks ago. The Greens’ Dominic Wy Kanak has 9.1% while independent Licia Heath has 5.6%.

    The poll commissioned by Greenpeace did not attempt to calculate the two-party preferred result but did ask about preferences. Ominously for the Liberals, the result is in line with their own internal polling reported in the Australian this morning.

    It had Sharma’s vote “in the mid 30s” and Phelps “well into the 20s”.

  25. Nath

    I believe that you have on two occasions posted details of a project with William

    Would you be so kind as to post again please.

    Internet kiss for you. Hug to follow in the mail. 💋

  28. The Guardian:

    Alex Turnbull has switched his support in the Wentworth race from Labor’s Tim Murray to independent Kerryn Phelps, saying it makes more sense:

  29. I was too slow; went to the supermarket to buy some popping corn; they are all out. People must be seriously stocking up for the weekend.

  30. Fantastic dat for Prime Muppet & Co.

    The result of the division to suspend standing orders is tied

    71 to 71

    Tony Smith uses his casting vote: usually it would be that the motion doesn’t have a majority and he wouldn’t create one, but he declares the motion to suspend standing orders lost without casting his vote, because it doesn’t have an absolute majority.

  31. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/17/senate-to-force-debate-on-lgbt-teacher-protections-before-wentworth-byelection

    The Senate will debate discrimination protections for LGBT teachers on Wednesday and Thursday after a motion moved jointly by Richard Di Natale and Penny Wong was accepted without a vote.

    The tactic to force debate on the Greens private senator’s bill means the issue will be considered before the Wentworth byelection on Saturday, despite Scott Morrison refusing to give bipartisan support for ending religious exemptions to discrimination law for teachers and school staff.
    :::
    Labor and crossbench senators including Derryn Hinch, Tim Storer and Centre Alliance support ending the exemptions for religious schools and the Greens corralled them to support a suspension of standing orders after question time on Wednesday.

    Instead, a motion to debate the bill for one and a half hours on each of Wednesday and Thursday passed after question time with general agreement, and without the Coalition forcing the Senate to vote or to suspend standing orders.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/oct/17/government-defends-israel-embassy-move-discussion-politics-live?page=with:block-5bc6d1a9e4b002841cd8d043#block-5bc6d1a9e4b002841cd8d043

    The Senate debate on removing discrimination law exemptions for religious schools is underway.
    ::::
    Labor senator Jacinta Collins also made some very interesting remarks about the need to respect the right of religious schools to be run in accordance with their beliefs, and parents to have their children educated “in accordance with their religious convictions”.
    ::::
    This sounds like Labor is giving a red light to discrimination on the grounds of sexuality but a green light to positively selecting people that uphold a school’s ethos. I’m seeking clarification on that, and how it might be achieved.

  33. What would happen if the ALP announced that they would re-locate the Israeli embassy back to Tel Aviv should the LNP make the move to Jerusalem in the near future?

    Would they do it? Would people welcome it?

  38. Only one more day where Smiths casting vote

    Can’t wait for the Prime Muppet to explain how it’s imperative for the Burghers of Wentworth to vote for Sharmer so he can protect his muppet ministers

  39. This idea of an automatic election after a change of Prime Minister is not, in my opinion, a good one. Would we really want a new election within 4 – 6 weeks if, for example, a Prime Minister was assassinated (would that increase the incentive for some nutter to remove the leader of a government he didn’t like)? Would it have been appropriate to hold an election after the death of Curtin? Indeed, would Australia have been any better off going to an election after Menzies first stint ended? Not having an election ultimately resulted in us having PM Curtin.

    What of the ALP’s rules on selecting leaders? If an ALP PM resigned, or died in office, how could the ALP fight an election if they’re still in the process of selecting a leader?

    There are plenty of countries that cope just fine with frequent changes of prime minister. Some might argue that there’s no reason why Australia can’t either. I would argue that we have managed just fine in the past. Early in our federation things were unstable. So it was during the middle of WW2 with three PMs in a short period. Then we had Holt, Gorton and McMahon.

  41. Pegasus @ #2278 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 5:07 pm

    The Guardian:

    Alex Turnbull has switched his support in the Wentworth race from Labor’s Tim Murray to independent Kerryn Phelps, saying it makes more sense:

    Yep,

    Alex Turnbull (@alexbhturnbull)

    So realistically if its tight, and the preference flows are as they are its better to vote for @drkerrynphelps if you want greater certainty of the Liberals not retaining the seat. However, if you want to virtue signal and not win, do your thing @Greens
    October 17, 2018

  42. The Greens attempt to strip former governor general Hollingworth of his pension fails after both major parties voted against a clause in a motion presented to the Senate.

    Greens Rachel Sierwet:

    “While the Senate supported clauses a to c of my motion, including the clause expressing concern about the current situation, the key clause (d) calling for amendments to the Act were not supported by either of the major parties,” she said.

    “Survivors have approached all parties and requested this change and we need to listen to them.

    “It is deeply concerning that governors general who have lost the confidence of the public and may have acted illegally or brought the office into disrepute, should continue to receive government-funded payments of hundreds of thousands of dollars a year.

    “The Greens will introduce a private members bill to amend the governors general act.

    “I will continue to work with the community on this issue.”

  43. Ronzy @ #2241 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 4:44 pm

    ….. The mistake which many make is to view scripture as not much more than a history text. For me, it is a text (The word of God) which is imbued with life changing truth, which is imparted via either an historical narrative of the lives and example of those who have gone before me, or the use of powerful literary devices to make a point. It is up to me to make sure that I understand and am able to discern which is which by verifying the correct meaning of the original language or researching the cultural setting of the time of its origin. For example, there is clear evidence that Revelation is written in the same style as a Greek Drama – though I suspect it was never meant to be performed – just think of the technical problems that it would have entailed.

    As Archbishop Michael Ramsay noted, when commenting on the literal understanding of Scripture, without employing reason in its interpretation -“Scripture becomes scripturalism …. and ’isms’ can be dangerous.”

    Ronzy, thanks for the laugh.

    Tell me, where was god before the arab goat-herders invented it? Is ‘verily, verily’ an example of ‘a powerful literary device?

    Is the parable of the talents (Matthew 25:14-30) an example of Joshua ben Joseph pointing out that the rich inevitably get richer, and that’s just fine, or that jewish slave masters of the time were gullible, or what, exactly? Funny only one of the unknown people who wrote ‘the gospels’ thought that it was worthwhile telling that story.

    And funny old St Paul, in his letter to Timothy, which he wrote about 25 years after his death, says
    “A woman should learn in quietness and full submission. I do not permit a woman to teach or to assume authority over a man; she must be quiet.” Please provide us with your inspired interpretation of this language. Is it an example of a powerful literary device, or self serving bullshit, or is there another god given word for it?

  46. On these figures could the Greens, by preferencing Labor, cause Labor to reach no.2 position ahead of Phelps, and then Phelps’ preferences get the Liberals over the line?

    The Liberal party is in serious danger of losing the seat of Wentworth this weekend according to a new ReachTel poll that shows Liberal candidate Dave Sharma’s primary vote has slumped to 32.7%. The vote of high profile independent and local GP Kerryn Phelps has surged to 25.8%.

    Labor’s Tim Murray has also increased his share of the primary vote to 21.6%, compared with 19.5% in a ReachTel poll two weeks ago. The Greens’ Dominic Wy Kanak has 9.1% while independent Licia Heath has 5.6%.

  48. Pegasus @ #2292 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 6:21 pm

    The Greens attempt to strip former governor general Hollingworth of his pension fails after both major parties voted against a clause in a motion presented to the Senate.

    Greens Rachel Sierwet:

    “While the Senate supported clauses a to c of my motion, including the clause expressing concern about the current situation, the key clause (d) calling for amendments to the Act were not supported by either of the major parties,” she said.

    “Survivors have approached all parties and requested this change and we need to listen to them.

    “It is deeply concerning that governors general who have lost the confidence of the public and may have acted illegally or brought the office into disrepute, should continue to receive government-funded payments of hundreds of thousands of dollars a year.

    “The Greens will introduce a private members bill to amend the governors general act.

    “I will continue to work with the community on this issue.”

    Vindictive arseholes!

  49. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/17/a-third-of-australians-in-favour-of-authoritarian-or-strongman-leader-study-finds

    A growing number of Australians are becoming attracted to the idea of having an authoritarian leader who can avoid elections and parliament, with the phenomenon strongest among younger voters.

    A new study, conducted by the Australian National University’s centre for social research and methods, found 33% of Australians now rate having an authoritarian-style leader as being “very good” or “fairly good”.

    In 2005, just 24% of Australians were favourably disposed towards the idea, which rose to 28% in 2012.

    The survey of more than 1,800 Australians, aged 18 years and over, conducted between April and August, found the rise in support for the idea of a “strongman” was also stronger among Australians under the age of 35.

    Report – The Australian Values Study 2018: https://anu.prezly.com/support-for-authoritarian-style-political-leaders-in-australia-on-the-rise?asset_type=attachment&asset_id=128028#attachment-128028

Comments Page 46 of 51
1 … 45 46 47 … 51

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *