BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

No real change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, except that there is now a Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trend in business.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, together with the state breakdowns published earlier this week by Ipsos. This yields only the tiniest change on voting intention, and no change whatsoever on the seat projection.

I’ve also made my first effort to reactivate the leadership ratings, which have been dormant since Malcolm Turnbull’s because there has been insufficient data to generate a trend measure for Scott Morrison. This is still the case with his net approval ratings, for which there are only five data points, but there have been two extra points for the preferred prime minister question, which makes all the difference.

As such, the leadership ratings trends available through the full BludgerTrack display (click below) show separate trend measures on the preferred prime minister chart for the Turnbull-versus-Shorten and Morrison-versus-Shorten eras. This demonstrates that Morrison’s lead over Shorten is more or less the same as Turnbull’s was. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

  1. Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    8h

    Just heard through grapevine Morrison is seriously considering releasing children from Nauru, if early-week polling suggests the LNP is likely to lose #WentworthVotes. Only doing it to neutralise Phelps campaign, not because of any humanitarian concerns. #auspol #insiders

  2. Dee Madigan

    The attendance at Everest was less than half the of the Melbourne Cup. With just 7k increase on the year before. Proving not all publicity is good publicity.

    They got the GovGen to hand out the cup.
    Making out it was a national event of great importance?

  3. Stuart Robert and more creative accounting and self-dealing:

    The Angry Goddess

    @Bishop64
    The Angry Goddess Retweeted #StopGreed
    OMFG who is the landlord, this looks and smells like a #RORT #auspol

    #StopGreed

    @daveyk317
    #StopGreed Retweeted Metta Bhavana
    Is Stuart Robert also stealing more taxpayers money by renting a tiny office for $59,590.75 per month … off whom …? Is this another Stuart Robert money laundering operation like the #StuartRobert internet theft or #AlexHawke printer expenses ?
    @KKeneally @SenatorWong

  4. lizzie @ #1001 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 7:41 am

    Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    8h

    Just heard through grapevine Morrison is seriously considering releasing children from Nauru, if early-week polling suggests the LNP is likely to lose #WentworthVotes. Only doing it to neutralise Phelps campaign, not because of any humanitarian concerns. #auspol #insiders

    You had me diving for cover for a moment.

    As we like to say Chez KayJay

    A bastard who does a good thing is still a bastard – substitute adjectives to suit ❗

  5. But wait, there’s more!

    Do you think this is why Stuart Robert’s internet bill (charged to the taxpayers), was so high?

    Denise Shrivell

    @deniseshrivell
    Denise Shrivell Retweeted Federal Politics
    The religious organisation which Robert & his family are involved in produces a streaming video & subscription tv channel. Just saying.

  6. And just to prove that ScumMo’s pro gay children edict is just a scam to get him through the Wentworth by-election, his numbers man and best Evo mate, Stu Robert, is linked to this outfit:

    Turnbull government MP Stuart Robert has close ties to an African church that supports harsh anti-gay laws and is run by a preacher described as “one of the most homophobic people in the world”.

    Mr Robert was a founding director of Watoto Australia, an offshoot of the Ugandan-based pentecostal Watoto Church, and has called church leader Gary Skinner one of the “great influences” on his life.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-mp-stuart-roberts-close-ties-to-antigay-african-church-20160930-grsgi8.html

    It’s from 2016, but a leopard doesn’t change his spots.

  7. Democrats are systematically underrepresented under the current arrangements. Increasing the Democrats’ representation to bring it in line with their level of voter support is democratically justified. It is naive to pretend that there are no partisan considerations when the other side has been so successful at enacting aggressively partisan changes to rules. People getting disenfranchised is a big problem that demands a muscular response. Republicans have been able to count on Democrats being passive. Their brazen disregard for good process demands a bold response. It would not be a bad thing for big states to be broken up into smaller states that are closer to their respective voters and that deliver appropriate Senate representation for those voters.

  8. Lizzie

    This is not a criticism but an attempt to clarify quoting various items

    I think you are putting a blockquote in the wrong place which results in the case of another quoting your post – the item will be truncated.

    For instance:-
    Uno momento – cup of coffee – ☕

    ——————————————–
    KayJay (Block)
    Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 7:52 am
    Comment #1003

    Holden Hillbilly @ #1002 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 7:43 am

    ———————————————

    Were I to post this I would highlight and copy and then paste into the comment box.

    Then I would bold the

    KayJay (Block)
    Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 7:52 am
    Comment #1003

    section
    and then

    blockquote

    Holden Hillbilly @ #1002 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 7:43 am

    end blockquote.

    I recall Bemused posting about using C+ and using blockquote.

    Sorry,
    Good Morning to you. 😇

    On the other hand, if others can’t work it out then they can resort to thoughts and prayers. 🙏🙏

  9. cat:

    [‘It’s from 2016, but a leopard doesn’t change his spots.’]

    This, his internet and office expenses, the reasons why he was previously sacked makes this man a perfect target for Labor. He has no scruples whatsoever.

  10. KayJay

    This is not a criticism but an attempt to clarify quoting various items

    You’ll have to run that past me again.
    I’ve noticed that some posters join 2 bits together as if by one poster, which can be confusing. But I don’t do it.

  11. Regarding Scotty ‘releasing’ children off Nauru, is he going to separate them from their parents?

    Perhaps he has been looking at Trump’s tactic at the Mexican Border, where families when caught, have the parents being locked up in jail and the children removed to a separate institutional camp with no real method of matching them up at a later time. Or giving them over to the church to look after.

  12. KayJay

    Good song for the day.

    ♫Well I woke up ♪Sunday morning

    Have some Willie Nelson

    I woke up still not dead again today
    The internet said I had passed away
    But if I’d died I wasn’t dead to stay
    And I woke up still not dead again today

    I run up and down the road and makin’ music as I go
    They say my pace would kill a normal man
    But I’ve never been accused of bein’ normal anyway
    And I woke up still not dead again today

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J34esa_aJxc

  13. The ALP has held a ‘boot camp’ for 40 NSW pre-selected candidates. And Bill Shorten is confident enough to invite Murdoch organ the Daily ToiletPaper to attend – who provide a ‘neutral’ write up. Some excerpts..

    “OPPOSITION leader Bill Shorten has laid down his election battleground calling on his troops to ramp up a street-by-street crusade championing Labor unity.

    Candidates were also instructed to spruik the party’s promised funding for schools, hospitals and other “hip pocket” entitlements during a candidate bootcamp in Sydney yesterday.

    More than 40 preselected Labor candidates, who will contest NSW seats in next year’s federal election, were summonsed to party head quarters in Sussex St for an official induction.

    >…….

    It was the first time newly preselected candidate have met, with party elders imparting hustings wisdom.

    There was hard won advice on how to conduct media interviews, “know the party policies”, “don’t do a Diaz” — Liberal Party aspirant Jaymes Diaz was demolished on a TV interview as he revealed his policy ignorance — and “don’t promise the budget”.

    ……..

    One candidate was politely asked to remove his puffer vest, while others were styled for their candidate profile photos.

    As for the candidate code of conduct, the message was simple: “Don’t break the law”.

    In a rallying speech to candidates, Mr Shorten said the party had risen from a “pretty tough place” to a “competitive position” in the past five years.

    It was now time to “close the deal”.

    This included promoting “positive policies” that appreciated the “good hard work” of millions Australians, and addressing inequality, he said.

    “You wouldn’t have heard me five years ago say we would be a steady and united party in Australian politics,” Mr Shorten said.

    “Labor has a better parliamentary team than the conservatives.

    “But we take nothing for granted. So on election night – we don’t know the outcome – but we will agree on this: Let us have no petrol in the tank. We now just have to close the deal.”

    Speaking after his address, he identified health and education and the economy as key election issues, with cost of living and wages also making the top three concerns. In Sydney over-development was a major issue.

    He promised more hip pocket policies.

    “The fact of the matter is our income tax cuts are bigger … private health insurance, we are capping it at two per cent, but we’ll have more cost of living measures, yes,” he told The Sunday Telegraph.

    As for how this campaign would be different this time around, it was a wiser and even more well-travelled Mr Shorten that would heading out on the hustings.

    And Labor, should it be delivered a victory, would address a mistake that both parties had made in the past of not having a plan as to what to do when in government with a 100-day plan already in place.

    “We are more united and I’ve learned a great deal,” he said.

    “Comfortable in my own skin? I am. I’ve learned a lot. In my job I am enjoying myself. “People used to initially ask me if I’m enjoying myself, and I’d say what? But I really am enjoying it. I joined politics to make a difference and we are doing that.”

  14. I am having a battle with this item, however:-

    Your post at:-

    ——————————————–

    lizzie (Block)
    Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 7:41 am
    Comment #1001

    Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    8h

    Just heard through grapevine Morrison is seriously considering releasing children from Nauru, if early-week polling suggests the LNP is likely to lose #WentworthVotes. Only doing it to neutralise Phelps campaign, not because of any humanitarian concerns. #auspol #insiders

    ——————————————————-

    You put a blockquote before Eddy Jokovich
    and another
    before Just heard

    If you omit the first blockquote prior to Eddy then, for those using C+ all is well and the display is also correct.

    Again, on the other hand (that’s about 4 so far) I can correct if responding and maybe nobody else noticed or cares.

    I now sally forth to try to eradicate onion weed. Sadly I will miss Insiders. 😢

    My wife would accuse me of piosity* in matters such as this. 🙏

    *Definition of piosity. : an exaggerated or superficial piousness : an obvious manifestation of devoutness.

    Attention now turns to giving Mr. Cosgrove a suitable figurative kicking. 🥾👢

  15. Nicholas and others

    The problem that the USA has with reforming the Senate (and house0 is that their set up is inherently more states based than ours and this is fixed in the constitution.

    So only by splitting states can they add more delegates or get anywhere near proportionality.
    For example in Australia Tasmania/NSW is roughly 1/5 based on population whereas in the USA California/Wyoming is closer to 1/80.

    There can be little argument against adding DC and Puerto Rico as full states as they are larger than Wyoming. This would probably add 3/4 democrats to the Senate.

    However should California split that might be harder to achieve, because you would need all sorts of approval processes. It would open up a battle and a whole lot of states would split to get political dominance.

  16. KayJay @ #1006 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 7:55 am

    lizzie @ #1001 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 7:41 am

    Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    8h

    Just heard through grapevine Morrison is seriously considering releasing children from Nauru, if early-week polling suggests the LNP is likely to lose #WentworthVotes. Only doing it to neutralise Phelps campaign, not because of any humanitarian concerns. #auspol #insiders

    You had me diving for cover for a moment.

    As we like to say Chez KayJay

    A bastard who does a good thing is still a bastard – substitute adjectives to suit ❗

    Stuntman Scum is just a pathetic reboot of Toady Rabbott, the Cycling Smeagol – albeit sans scapular. Pastor ScumMo will crash and burn after Sharma’s Saturday shunting, but will keep on frantically going through the motions until next May, when the foetid pottage of the Lying Nasty Party will be ditched by the ~72% of us who are not beholden to the GReedy Arseholes & Spivs Parties of Thatcher’s children.

  17. Steve777 et al last night:
    “”Morrison: a mouthful of air, an exhalation, an empty smirk.”

    It needs something about loudness.

    “Scott Morrison: intake of air, loudly exhaled, an empty smirk” would do it.”

    A pithier version:’ Cheyne Stokes respiration, then Rictus Sardonicus’
    This also also give the notion of impending doom.

  18. I’m waiting for Cassidy to interrupt Corman’s crapfest to ask about corruption within the government.

    No doubt I’ll be waiting a long long time.

  19. From the Port Macquarie News – the replacement fot Hartsuyker:
    Local solicitor Patrick Conaghan, business owner and electrician Jamie Harrison and Port Macquarie newsagent Chris Genders will front The Nationals’ membership during the preselection process.
    I think we can safely say that none of these names are ringing bells in Stockholm
    I don’t know the others but Harrison has had a colourful career. Dismissed with the disgraced Port Macquarie council that wasted $70M on a cultural centre. He had previously faced disciplinary action when arrested outside an Irish bar sans culottes. At one stage he wrote a very angry piece to the PMQ news when Oakeshott refused to endorse him as an independe for his old state seat – independent indeed.
    He gained some national attention after accusations were made that he post dated the application of Andrew Stoner, state leader of the nationals, for a greater solar electricity subsidy
    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/andrew-stoners-solar-shortcut/news-story/d2f7d196bc5b2cc8a5ac60ec5760611b?sv=d6c7fc41135ed1310c41ede9a3592650

    He will be an ornament to the Nationals front bench

  20. C@tmomma, the problem is how most of them would define their job, which is certainly not to tell the truth – just to create the illusion most of the time.

  21. Good on David Marr for pointing out the reality of Treasurer Costello’s period in the job. He blew the biggest mining boom we’ve ever had!

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