More Monday miscellany

A summary of federal preselection developments, much of it relating to Tasmanian Senate tickets.

We’re in an off-week for federal opinion polling, although we may get geographic and demographic breakdowns from Newspoll – the leadership change had broken up their usual schedule of quarterly publication, and they have already published the results from the end of the Turnbull epoch. So here’s a summary of preselection news. Note the post below on the Wentworth by-election, and the one below that on the US mid-terms, courtesy of Adrian Beaumont.

• After successful lobbying from Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton and Mathias Cormann, Richard Colbeck will head the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket. Earlier reports indicated he would again be dumped, as he was in 2016 – initially costing him his seat, before he won it back on the countback that resulted from Stephen Parry’s Section 44-related disqualification. Claire Chandler, a conservative backed by Eric Abetz, is number two, with Hobart councillor Tanya Denison number three. The presence of two women on the ticket makes a change from the usual form of the state party, which last had a woman in federal parliament in 2002. Those who missed out included Brett Whiteley, who held Braddon from 2013 to 2016 and failed to win it back in the Super Saturday by-election, and Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby.

• Tasmanian Labor, on the other hand, has persisted in dumping Senator Lisa Singh to number four, despite her historic success in having below-the-line voters overturn her demotion in 2016. This reflects the party’s persistence in favouring the claim of John Short, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, who will be number three. The top two positions go to incumbents of the Left and Right, Carol Brown and Catryna Bilyk.

• Ann Sudmalis’s retirement in the dicey New South Wales seat of Gilmore leaves in the field her prospective preselection challenger, Grant Schultz, a real estate agent and the son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz. However, Mark Kenny of Fairfax reports “the moderate faction of the Liberal Party believes it can retain its hold on the seat and find a replacement for Ms Sudmalis”.

• Chris O’Keefe of Nine News reports Hughes MP Craig Kelly has been approached to run in the marginal state seat of East Hills, to smooth over his likely preselection defeat in his existing seat at the hands of Kent Johns. Kelly appeared to scupper his chances when he suggested forgiving Russia for the MH17 disaster was “the price we have to pay” for “good relations going forward”.

• Perin Davey, a Riverina water policy specialist, has won preselection to succeed the retiring John “Wacka” Williams as the Nationals’ New South Wales Senate candidate. The existing coalition agreement gives the Nationals the difficult third position on the ticket, but Joe Kelly of The Australian reports the party is considering breaking away to run its own ticket. To this end it has chosen a full slate of four candidates, rounded out by “small business owner Sam Farraway, Gunnedah Mayor Jamie Chaffey and Wagga-based farmer Paul Cocking”.

• Skye Kakoschke-Moore has been confirmed as the lead South Australian Senate candidate for the Centre Alliance, confirming that Nick Xenophon will stand by the pledge he made at the time of his failed run for state parliament that he would not run at the federal election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,067 comments on “More Monday miscellany”

Comments Page 34 of 42
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  1. Thank you, Prof. Higgins. I just have been reading widely at bedtime. Especially from those conservative opinion writers who have a handle on the situation around the Centre Right in the US. 🙂

  3. Can’t wait to read what Rick Wilson has to say about Trump’s outrageous performance this week!

    You know, if I was Melania Trump, I’d want to be getting a half a world away from him too!

  5. A massive coalition of U.S. Christian churches attended by 40 million people

    Thats great, but it represents only a fraction (10% ?) of the US Christian population.

  6. Republicans have to decide if they are going to drop even the pretence of integrity, or they say f**k process, we want Kavanaugh because we own him.

  8. Kyle Griffin tweets

    Mitch McConnell set up the key procedural vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination tonight before the Senate had even reviewed the FBI report on Kavanaugh.

  9. grimace @ #1616 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 12:01 pm

    KayJay @ #1452 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 6:19 am………………
    …………………
    ……………….

    You heard it from the Bludgers weeks ago that it wouldn’t take long for the poorly thought through simplistic fix to the GST to blow up in ScoMo’s face. Is there anyone competent at L/NP HQ directing these things?

    I posted the Telegraph front page as a result of a post by, I think, Citizen.

    To slightly change the old saying.

    What has he blown up this afternoon ❓ 🙄

  12. Simon² Katich® @ #1655 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 1:08 pm

    A massive coalition of U.S. Christian churches attended by 40 million people

    Thats great, but it represents only a fraction (10% ?) of the US Christian population.

    No, that can’t be right. The entire U.S. population is around 320 million. So it’s 12.5% at a bare minimum.

    But the U.S. isn’t 100% christian. It’s more like 70%, or 224 million people. Which would make the churches representative* of nearly 18%.

    But only about 45% of that 70% is actually christian enough to bother attending church. That brings the number down to around 100 million, and gives the churches a fairly staggering 40% representation.

    * To the extent that the church can be taken to represent the views of all of its attendees, anyways.

  14. Thats great, but it represents only a fraction (10% ?) of the US Christian population.

    40 million represents 12% of the total US Population.

  18. ScoMo leads Sulawesi prayers
    Scott Morrison prays at a Melbourne Pentecostal church.
    11:39AM
    Video from Melbourne Pentecostal church shows the PM leading prayers for Sulawesi earthquake victims and Australian farmers.

    Preacher Morrison again.

  22. In my day St Patrick’s was associated with massive over grown rugby players. In fact some of the speech welcoming Justin Fabian Gleeson to the NSW Court of Appeal was dedicated to his reputation as an enforcer on the rugby field.

    In my (at least early) days at St. Pat’S the First XV was actually the First XIII.

    And I can fondly remember Fabian Gleeson as a whiney little 6 year old in the back seat of the feared Gerry Senior’s car as he drove us back from thrashing Hartcher’s limp-wristed Chevalier girly men.

    In my day we produced Labor men, through and through.

    Until Brogden, that is.

    But as far as I know, no ABC political commentators. Only GPS alumni needed to apply.

  23. A reminder for all.

    Kavanaugh being blocked does not stop a Conservative being appointed to the Supreme Court.

    It only blocks a Trump is above the law nomination. If Flake and other Senators hold true to a liar cannot be on the Supreme Courr McConnell will lose that vote.

    Roe V Wade overturn can still happen with someone else on the Evangelical short list

  25. It’s a seat poll I know, but it shows uncertainty in the result. 🙂

    Wentworth byelection: Liberal vote collapses as poll shows safe seat now a close contest

    Exclusive: Liberals leading 51% to 49% on two-party-preferred basis in poll which also shows Kerryn Phelps damaged by preferencing decision

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/04/wentworth-byelection-liberal-vote-collapses-as-poll-shows-safe-seat-now-a-close-contest

  26. Bushfire Bill @ #1672 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 1:35 pm

    In my day St Patrick’s was associated with massive over grown rugby players. In fact some of the speech welcoming Justin Fabian Gleeson to the NSW Court of Appeal was dedicated to his reputation as an enforcer on the rugby field.

    In my (at least early) days at St. Pat’S the First XV was actually the First XIII.

    And I can fondly remember Fabian Gleeson as a whiney little 6 year old in the back seat of the feared Gerry Senior’s car as he drove us back from thrashing Hartcher’s limp-wristed Chevalier girly men.

    In my day we produced Labor men, through and through.

    Until Brogden, that is.

    I hated playing Chevalier. The front fields were hard as concrete. There were frosts in them thar days.

  28. guytar
    true, but if they don’t get Kavanaugh up, there is not time to get another candidate up before the elections, and if they lose control of the house at the elections, holding a vote between the elections and new candidates sitting would be seen as entirely illegitimate, especially after not even giving Garland even a hearing for 12 months.

  29. Roger Miller

    You mean Senate. Democrats have uphill battle to gain control of the Senate. The polls are looking as good as you could expect for that to happen but odds still are the GOP will retain control of the Senate.

    As I said about this earlier the panic of the GOP on Democrats gaining control of the Senate is instructive to what their internal polls must be saying.

  30. Hello All

    More evidence of Liberal desperation, in my opinion – in the sense that these are the talking points they deem worth trying to highlight – in Wentworth via a letter boxing received earlier today:

    Side One, full text [dark purple background]:

    With a 1 seat majority [white text on red, all capitalised letters]
    A vote [white text on baby blue, all caps]
    for Phelps is a vote [white text on baby blue, all caps]
    for … Labor? [white text on red, all caps]

    [black and white images of Phelps and Shorten]

    Phelps delivers a ‘gift for Labor by running in Turnbull’s old seat [first breakout quote, black bolded text on white with the words “‘gift’ for Labor’ highlighted in yellow]
    Source: The Australian, 17.9.2018 [white text]

    “A Kerryn Phelps win would be good for the Labor Party.” [second breakout quote, black less-bolded, slightly smaller font text on white with the words “good for the Labor Party” highlighted in yellow] Source: The Australian, 18/9/2018 [white text]

    Reverse Side, full text [dark purple background with same Phelps and Shorten images in lighter shade, all caps for all text except the microscopic authorisation block]:

    Fact
    Phelps’ campaign is managed by a
    seasoned Labor operator:
    “She has managed to convince the
    ALP political veteran Darren Barnett to
    head her campaign team. Mr Barnett’s las
    high-profile job was working as an
    adviser to Julia Gillard.”
    Source: The Australian, 17/9/2018 [all text in baby blue or white]

    Fact
    Phelps’ advocated putting
    the Liberals las (before backfilling):
    “Kerne Phelps has urged voters to put
    the Liberal Party last …”
    Source: The Guardian, 16/9/2018 [all text in baby blue or white]

    Labor + Phelps [yellow]
    = Uncertainty [the letters ‘Un’ in yellow, ‘certainty’ in white]

    [subscript size font in white:]
    Authorised by Chris Stone, Liberal Party of Australia, NSW Division, Level 12, 100 William Street, East Sydney NSW 2011. Printed by Blue Star, Unit 2, 81 Derby Street, Silverware NSW 2128

    By the way, the Liberals’ card arrived bundled with a rubber band in the same post and adjacent to the separately packaged official AEC Wentworth by-election pamphlet. Is that a coincidence? If not, is it allowed?

  33. Barney in Go Dau @ #1675 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 1:39 pm

    It’s a seat poll I know, but it shows uncertainty in the result. 🙂

    Wentworth byelection: Liberal vote collapses as poll shows safe seat now a close contest

    Exclusive: Liberals leading 51% to 49% on two-party-preferred basis in poll which also shows Kerryn Phelps damaged by preferencing decision

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/04/wentworth-byelection-liberal-vote-collapses-as-poll-shows-safe-seat-now-a-close-contest

    Thanks Barney. I like the way this is trending. Labor getting press after Sharma/Phelps/Phelps/Sharma, Phelps with a bullet hole in each foot, and Licia Heath getting some traction.

    Here’s Licia (from your link), and she’s esp running on eduction and accountability in Govt – Fed ICAC and Media exposé. Her CV includes Director on Women for Election in Australia – guidance and help for woman looking into parliamentary careers. The vid is a bit play school but valuable. And a lot of Wentworthians will be well able to sort their own preferences out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZMQKThr9pQ&ab_channel=LiciaHeath

  41. ”
    guytaur says:
    Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 11:55 am
    The Australian posts Peter Van Onselen talking about the power of lobbying.

    Rupert is getting desperate.

    Political party fundraising means that people and organisations with the funds to do so get access to power most citizens don’t, writes @vanOnselenP. But are they also buying influence? https://trib.al/4SCPx27 #auspol
    ”
    Guytaur.
    That is not a funding, This is funding 🙂
    Bloomberg is donating to Democrats in large numbers.
    ”
    Thursday, Oct 4, 2018 · 2:37:20 AM AEST · Stephen Wolf
    Senate: Billionaire former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg has upped his investment on helping Democrats break the GOP’s hold on Congress by donating a hefty $20 million to the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC. Bloomberg had already pledged $80 million to help Democrats flip the House, but he cited the backlash over the Brett Kavanaugh sexual assault scandal as having energized Democrats to the point where he thought the Senate was in play.
    “

  43. ”
    Victoria says:
    Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 12:16 pm
    Guytaur

    McConnell is an evil snake
    :
    Victoria you are insulting a snake. Doesn’t snake bite ony when provoked?

    McConnell is pure evil. Period.

  44. Rex Douglas @ #1693 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 11:05 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1685 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:03 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1687 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 11:00 am

    I see Bill Shorten copped some firm questioning from Virginia Trioli re the kids we’re torturing on Nauru. Well don VT.

    Shame it’s not directed at those responsible;

    The Government!!!!

    She included the Govt.

    So Bill should get a pass for being mute on offshore torture ?

    What can Labor do at the moment?

    I know you place a lot of value in worthless, ineffective words, it’s all the Greens, Reason and the like have, but Labor are likely to form the next Government and as such should be judged on their actions then.

  45. Kelly O’Dwyer just sent me a pamphlet and this is what she wants me to know:

    1. She is interested in my ideas to bust congestion in Melbourne and that the Fed government is assisting with Vic government to help relieve congestion.
    2. That she has secured funding for a special needs play group.
    3. That she has worked with community groups to make the community safer by providing some cctv equipment.
    4. That I am aware of Labors retirement tax and that 875,000 individuals and self managed super funds will be double taxed. They need this money to pay the bills she tells me.
    5. That state Labor are being sneaky by publicising the level crossing removal on Toorak Rd that won’t be completed until 2022.
    6. That her government is setting up a RC into aged care.
    7. She secured funding for some portable goals for a soccer club.
    8. Like many people who have contacted her, she is also disgusted by the Lib leadership spill, but she is focussed on giving people jobs (other that giving them the PM job, one would presume)
    9. That she is committed to empower ASIC get the powers to do their job.
    10. She gave some awards to volunteers.
    11. She secured funding for a school garden so children can grow up learning about protecting our environment.
    12. Announced funding for a training program to provide better support of breast cancer survivors.
    13. That Higgins boundaries have changed.
    14. She can help with messages to milestone birthdays/anniversarys, grant assistance, nominate local sports champions, or loaning her community marquee.
    15. I and everyone in the electorate are invited to a coummunity morning tea.
    16. I can contact her about what is on my mind.

    What can I say…. She dribbles a little cash, she is available to hear what you have to say and will attend a photo op if required. Does something about age care and financial institutes when shamed into it. Pretends the environment is important, but is part of party/government that does anything substantial about it (apart from funding a primary school garden).

    Kelly is a WOFTAM.

  48. Barney in Go Dau @ #1694 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:12 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1693 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 11:05 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1685 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:03 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1687 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 11:00 am

    I see Bill Shorten copped some firm questioning from Virginia Trioli re the kids we’re torturing on Nauru. Well don VT.

    Shame it’s not directed at those responsible;

    The Government!!!!

    She included the Govt.

    So Bill should get a pass for being mute on offshore torture ?

    What can Labor do at the moment?

    I know you place a lot of value in worthless, ineffective words, it’s all the Greens, Reason and the like have, but Labor are likely to form the next Government and as such should be judged on their actions then.

    How do you judge their principles given they are mute to the torture being inflicted ?

  49. ‘She included the Govt.’ pathetic Rex. Almost as pathetic as her interviewing. She mentioned the government was just as bad when Bill pulled her up.

    She should ask the gov rep the same question when they are on, after all as BIgD says they can do something about it.

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