We’re in an off-week for federal opinion polling, although we may get geographic and demographic breakdowns from Newspoll – the leadership change had broken up their usual schedule of quarterly publication, and they have already published the results from the end of the Turnbull epoch. So here’s a summary of preselection news. Note the post below on the Wentworth by-election, and the one below that on the US mid-terms, courtesy of Adrian Beaumont.
• After successful lobbying from Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton and Mathias Cormann, Richard Colbeck will head the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket. Earlier reports indicated he would again be dumped, as he was in 2016 – initially costing him his seat, before he won it back on the countback that resulted from Stephen Parry’s Section 44-related disqualification. Claire Chandler, a conservative backed by Eric Abetz, is number two, with Hobart councillor Tanya Denison number three. The presence of two women on the ticket makes a change from the usual form of the state party, which last had a woman in federal parliament in 2002. Those who missed out included Brett Whiteley, who held Braddon from 2013 to 2016 and failed to win it back in the Super Saturday by-election, and Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby.
• Tasmanian Labor, on the other hand, has persisted in dumping Senator Lisa Singh to number four, despite her historic success in having below-the-line voters overturn her demotion in 2016. This reflects the party’s persistence in favouring the claim of John Short, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, who will be number three. The top two positions go to incumbents of the Left and Right, Carol Brown and Catryna Bilyk.
• Ann Sudmalis’s retirement in the dicey New South Wales seat of Gilmore leaves in the field her prospective preselection challenger, Grant Schultz, a real estate agent and the son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz. However, Mark Kenny of Fairfax reports “the moderate faction of the Liberal Party believes it can retain its hold on the seat and find a replacement for Ms Sudmalis”.
• Chris O’Keefe of Nine News reports Hughes MP Craig Kelly has been approached to run in the marginal state seat of East Hills, to smooth over his likely preselection defeat in his existing seat at the hands of Kent Johns. Kelly appeared to scupper his chances when he suggested forgiving Russia for the MH17 disaster was “the price we have to pay” for “good relations going forward”.
• Perin Davey, a Riverina water policy specialist, has won preselection to succeed the retiring John “Wacka” Williams as the Nationals’ New South Wales Senate candidate. The existing coalition agreement gives the Nationals the difficult third position on the ticket, but Joe Kelly of The Australian reports the party is considering breaking away to run its own ticket. To this end it has chosen a full slate of four candidates, rounded out by “small business owner Sam Farraway, Gunnedah Mayor Jamie Chaffey and Wagga-based farmer Paul Cocking”.
• Skye Kakoschke-Moore has been confirmed as the lead South Australian Senate candidate for the Centre Alliance, confirming that Nick Xenophon will stand by the pledge he made at the time of his failed run for state parliament that he would not run at the federal election.
PeeBee @ #1699 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:17 pm
So Trioli is pathetic for question Bill’s principles ?
Some low low percentages in this NYT article.
.
Planning to Vote in the November Election? Why Most Americans Probably Won’t
MADISON, W.Va. — Lula Hill voted in just about every election once she became old enough in 1952. Her coal mining family of registered Democrats believed that elections were like church services: You didn’t skip them.
https://outline.com/8BE5dG
Rex Douglas @ #1701 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 11:16 am
What real difference would saying anything have on the situation now?
When you have a chance of being the Government you might understand.
Rex Douglas @ #1701 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:22 pm
Link? Or are you just making stuff up as usual?
From The Hill.
With debate likely to be voted down on Friday and final vote on Saturday…. the executive summary better be good. And considering the FBI didnt even interview Ford nor witnesses corroborating her statements… the Republican carnies have turned due process into a circus.
‘How do you judge their principles given they are mute to the torture being inflicted ?’
Mute is one strategy to get in power and then be able to change it.
Mute is important, as you know Rex, because the Greens love to attack Labor for whatever they say.
Mute is what the Greens do when they could be bragging about how they voted down the Malaysian solution which would have stopped the torture.
Mute is Greens method of condemning the Liberals who are perpetuating the Torture.
In a way, the Greens love the torture of refugees on Nahru because without they cannot be holier than everyone else.
It would show they have principles and strength of character – traits that genuine leaders have.
So who are ya gonna vote for Rex?
A: The child torturers who belueve in trickle down economics, fucking the environment, fucking the NBN and generally making a dogs breakfast of government
B: The child torturers who are going to restore equity, have a sane energy/environment policy, fix the NBN And in general know what they are doing?
Tough choice.
Put up or shut up, Rex.
Player One @ #1704 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:24 pm
Yes just making it all up. Go back to sleep P1.
Cud Chewer @ #1708 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:30 pm
Liberal and Labor don’t deserve Govt.
Rex Douglas @ #1709 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:30 pm
As I expected. Given your track record, if you think anyone here is about to take your word on anything to do with Labor or Shorten then you are even sillier than you appear.
Rex, answer me one question, please. To whom would you give a higher preference in your House of Reps vote: the Labor candidate or the Liberal/National/LNP candidate? I understand neither may get your first preference.
I’m only asking because the plight of refugees from war-torn or poverty-stricken countries who flee to here across the seas has been worsened by the actions of Coalition governments far more than it has by Labor governments, ever since John Howard pounded the lectern and told his cheering voters those people were not welcome here.
”
PeeBee says:
Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 2:26 pm
‘How do you judge their principles given they are mute to the torture being inflicted ?’
Mute is one strategy to get in power and then be able to change it.
Mute is important, as you know Rex, because the Greens love to attack Labor for whatever they say.
Mute is what the Greens do when they could be bragging about how they voted down the Malaysian solution which would have stopped the torture.
Mute is Greens method of condemning the Liberals who are perpetuating the Torture.
In a way, the Greens love the torture of refugees on Nahru because without they cannot be holier than everyone else.
”
PeeBee
Rex is mute when I mentioned (on Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 1:36 pm) that SHY is sloppy with her public utterances. Sometimes people are mute for strategic reasons.
Americans get the government they vote and don’t for. There is no hope!
Rex, bear in mind a vote is not valid if it does not express a higher preference for Labor over Coalition or vice versus.
Rex are you going to preference Liberal above Labor, or vice versa.
Put up or shut up.
Rex Douglas @ #1710 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 11:29 am
It would give the Government ammunition to make an issue of it electorally.
The past has shown that fear wins out over logic, in the electorate, on this issue.
Snap Michael
Ven, I suspect Rex will be “mute” in response to my question to him as well.
Cud Chewer, I suspect he’ll neither put up nor shut up.
Cud Chewer @ #1716 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:36 pm
Rex has previously admitted he preferences Labor above Liberals.
Christopher Pyne insists $50 billion submarines deal is on track as SA senators attack project, cost blows out to $200b. NBN on steroids. This mob are a sovereign risk.
(Alexander Waverly @theUNCLEdaily)
Barney in Go Dau @ #1717 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:37 pm
It is an electoral issue – and the past has shown a lack of principle, character and courage has allowed the current shameful disgrace to continue.
P1 you’re not on my list of credible sources.
Michael @ #1720 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:39 pm
I’m willing to put up re the lack of heart for those poor souls. Are you ?
Or are you just a sheep with no principles ?
Cud Chewer @ #1724 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:43 pm
A shame. You might learn a few things.
From what I remember the bloody greens stymied the Malaysian solution, so they are responsible for the current predicament.
End of story!.
BK says: Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 2:36 pm
Americans get the government they vote and don’t for. There is no hope!
*********************************************
Churchill ‘allegedly’ did/did not say – You can always count on Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.
Rex Douglas @ #1726 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 11:41 am
Really?
Labor tried to move in a different direction and were crucified at the ballot box for it.
They only reverted back a more Coalition friendly policy after the Greens helped to block their attempts at an alternate approach.
I am undecided wither to vote for Labor or the Greens for the election at the moment. I am leaning towards voting for Greens 1, Labor 2 in the Lower House and Greens in the Senate.
Am I the only one here to comment on this new ReachTel poll in the Guardian, that has the Liberals Dave Sharma down to 40% in Wentworth with a 51/49% 2PP (making many preferencing assumptions)? I do not know if Labor will win, but ScamMo and his band of merry men might lose this.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/04/wentworth-byelection-liberal-vote-collapses-as-poll-shows-safe-seat-now-a-close-contest
If accurate (yes single seat, sample = 727) that is another 20% swing against the Libs in NSW. So much for ScamMo “cutting through”.
I have a dog to amuse me, P1
What Rex is exploiting is the asymmetry in electoral consequences for Labor, the Greens and the Coalition in having asylum seekers elevated to prominence as an issue. The Coalition can be as gung-ho as they like and they will largely profit from it; the Greens can be as compassionate as they like and only profit from it. But the party in the centre on this issue (Labor) can only bleed votes either way, no matter what it pronounces on this issue, since a centrist answer will piss off its left as too heartless and its right as too soft on the national border.
I suspect Rex knows this only too well. Thus, it is hard to say whether his raising of this issue to such prominence is aimed at carving votes off Labor to the Greens, or at goading Labor into making pronouncements that drive other voters from them to the Coalition. Either way, its effect is so clearly to make it harder for Labor to wrest Government from the Coalition that it is a good bet that this is Rex’s intention in cheering every time Labor gets asked a question on it.
Cud Chewer @ #1732 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:48 pm
Whatever floats your boat.
@Socrates
I am predicting Phelps will win Wentworth with a margin of under 5%. It will be interesting what she will be demanding for her supporting a minority Coalition government.
Socrates @ #1734 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 11:47 am
No, I linked it earlier. 🙂
Tristo @ #1730 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:47 pm
Labor is going to win the lower house, so voting Green there won’t make much difference. However, don’t waste your senate vote electing people with the morals of Rex Douglas, the maturity of Nicholas and the flexibility of Pegasus.
Cud Chewer @ #1732 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:48 pm
I think your dog is probably the winner out of that bargain!
Barney in Go Dau @ #1731 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:47 pm
Labor has cravenly looked away for 5 years as the torture was inflicted because they don’t have the principles, courage or political skill to challenge Abbott, Morrison and Dutton.
Labor have been cowards re the torture.
adrian @ #1787 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:04 pm
Not once have I heard Virginia Trioli question this government, over the last 5 years, on Manus and Nauru. She’s simply doing the ‘See? I can be tough on Labor but I quake in my boots at the sight of a Coalition MP because they may complain and my job would be in jeopardy’ schtick. It’s what ABC journalists do. It’s pathetic. It’s the ones like her and Tony Jones that have zero credibility. So to try and use her as some paragon of virtue for the ‘tough’ questioning of Bill Shorten, is equally pathetic.
Barney
Thanks. I agree victory for Labor is still a tall order. But losing another safe Liberal seat in NSW with a 20%+ swing is surely a sign that no matter who is PM, the Libs won’t be winning the next federal election.
Player One @ #1738 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:52 pm
And, they called it puppy love…….
Michael @ #1736 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 11:49 am
Rex’s pronouncements are a clear indication of what you should not do, so if in doubt listen to Rex and do the opposite. 🙂
Rex, I’ll ask again: who will you preference higher in your lower house vote: Labor or the Coalition? This was the question referred to in the comment about “putting up or shutting up”.
BTW, in 2010 I voted Green-Labor-Liberal precisely because I wanted Labor in Government, but encouraged to be more active on climate change and more humane towards refugees. I was younger then, and didn’t appreciate that sometimes if you prod the Government to take a step too far to the left, then next election the voters prod them into taking many steps to the right, as happened in 2013. And how has life been for refugees since Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison took over in 2013??
Anyway, that’s enough indulging the broken record and his trigger issue schtick.
Tristo,
I do. Kavanaugh’s reply to Ford in the committee hearings shows he is not just biased to the conservative ideology (which is fine) but politically partisan and thus incompatible for the SCOTUS. Not to mention his questionable temperament.
His guilt or otherwise of sexual assault will deliberately not be properly examined thanks to the organisers of this backblocks chook raffle come cockfight.
Socrates/Barney
Re Wentworth poll, although the allocation around the other candidates is all over the place, this poll and the other Wentworth poll a week or so ago appear to be consistent with Liberals around 40%, a 20%+ swing on the primaries, which must be a worry for the government
Do you ave a link to the poll release (not just the Guardian report); I’ve had a look but cannot find it
Michael @ #1735 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 2:49 pm
I don’t apologise for ‘having asylum seekers elevated to prominence as an issue’.
It’s interesting and telling that the torture inflicted by Australia seems to be low on your conscience.
@Player One
The Greens in my current state of residence (Tasmania) are pretty reasonable, for instance their state leader voiced very legitimate concerns over Chinese Communist Party influence in Tasmanian politics in-spite of accusations by other Greens of racism.
Although I might change my vote to Labor in both houses, I am not 100% decided yet.
Wentworths favourite son being treat like shit by the Libs is going to be punished in Wentworth. Whatever happens its a loss for the Libs.