The fortnightly Essential Research result has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down just slightly from its 55-45 in the poll conducted in the very immediate wake of the leadership change on August 24. All we have of the primary vote at this stage is that the Coalition is up a point to 36%. Scott Morrison records a 39-27 lead on preferred prime minister, little changed from his 39-29 lead in the last poll. As with Newspoll, Essential’s second poll of the Morrison era includes its first approval ratings for the two leaders: Morrison debuts on 37% approval and 31% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 35% approval, up one on a month ago, and 43% disapproval, down one.
UPDATE: On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 36%, Labor is down two to 37% – solidly lower than Newspoll – the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is up one to 8% (their second increase in a row, the opposite of what Newspoll has shown). The full report is here.
The poll finds 47% disapproving of the leadership change compared with 35% in support, widening a gap that was recorded at 40% to 35% in the last poll (the narrowness of which I found hard to credit). Presented with a series of propositions on the leadership change, 63% agreed with the proposition that they had lost trust in the government and wanted a new one; 60% that Morrison “was not elected by the people and has no legitimacy” and “needs to go to an election as soon as possible“; and 67% that they were “sick of the major parties changing their leaders” and “consider voting for a third party to send a message to them both”. Also included are a finding that 69% think a policy to reduce carbon emissions important, versus 23% for unimportant; and leadership attribute ratings which I may or may not take a closer look at when the full report comes out later today.
Also today, The Australian has some results from a poll of 1000 respondents in Wentworth. The poll was conducted for Andrew Bragg, the early Liberal preselection frontrunner who is now set for a seat in the Senate, who seems to be publicising it to back his decision to vacate the field in Wentworth for a woman. A straight voting intention question recorded the Liberal primary vote at just 39%, compared with Malcolm Turnbull’s 62.3% in 2016, with Labor’s Tim Murray on 25% and Kerryn Phelps, who is expected to announce shortly she will run as an independent, on 20%. However, a secondary voting intention specifying a female Liberal candidate found the party’s vote increasing to 43%.
Adrian, briefly
I am waiting for a cartoon depicting the white sons of a QC (and grandsons of Australian of the Year) on a rampage.
waiting, waiting, waiting ………
Briefly
With respect, Williams humiliated and degraded herself with her behaviour. We are entitled to expect much better from such a gifted player, one who is no doubt a role model for thousands, perhaps millions of young kids around the world.
@Lizzie
LOL
I agree that Knight is an idiot, but not for the cartoon about Williams. It’s a caricature, for the sake of the gods. Do we really believe it’s okay to draw caricatures of members of the dominant ethnic group but not of members of minorities?
Williams is a liar and a cheat and she deserves to be caricatured and portrayed for what she is. Sadly, although her attempt to play the sexism card appears to have failed, the race card seems to be getting some traction.
a r @ #149 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 10:30 am
Not from footage I have seen out of Iran. Under Hassan Rouhani they have liberalised somewhat. There was a viral video recently of a woman tearing off her hijab, exposing her hair in a public street and yelling at a cleric/morality policeman. She was surrounded by men and hustled away but not arrested. That sort of thing.
Similar sorts of outbreaks are occurring in Afghanistan. Again, under a more moderate government than the Taliban.
Though not common, it’s good to see the women aren’t being arrested and stoned to death or imprisoned for it.
Insofar as my own opinion matters (not much, I suspect), as a fairly rusted on 1 Greens, 2 Labor voter who isn’t a member of either party, I find the Barber allegations, Di Natale’s silence on the matter, and the related issues of nepotism, etc, all very worrying – it doesn’t reflect well at all on the party’s internal and external leadership, and has the potential to be incredibly damaging for a party with a strong feminist demographic in its base.
But being a Queenslander with no insider status whatsoever within the Greens nor much knowledge of the intricacies of Victorian politics, it would be impossible for me to give an answer to any of Ven’s four questions that isn’t a confused shrug.
Now that I’ve finally seen THAT cartoon by Knight, I gotta say I see nothing particularly offensive (dare I say racist) about it at all.
It depicts a mild caricature of an obviously emotional Venus Williams jumping up and down near to (or on) a broken racket, with a spat dummy on the ground nearby . She is clearly having a tantrum.
Talking to the umpire is her opponent – a dark-skinned woman with yellow hair. The dark skin and the yellow hair clearly establish exactly who it is: Naomi Osaka. In doing so the scenario is also established: it is the recent final of the US Open.
The umpire is haplessly asking Osaka whether she will forfeit the game, obviously to keep Williams happy (the back story being that Williams is a big money-spinner for the “business” end of the game).
I think it’s quite a funny cartoon, one that covers the issue well with the suggestion that Naomi Osaka’s victory was inconvenient for a lot of people: Williams, the umpire, tennis bureaucrats, the bookies, the crowd and (perhaps) the Twitter Swarm who were almost certain to take up the “sexist/racist” cudgels on William’s behalf.
It was probably inconvenient for Osaka herself, seeing the way an ugly, partisan, booing crowd reduced her – in her moment of triumph (one might also call it a turning point for the Game of Tennis) – to a crying, embattled victim – a genuine victim this time – who actually felt it necessary to apologize for beating Williams. I had a tear in my own eye, watching Osaka’s humiliation.
While the drawings of Williams are caricature, and very unflattering ones at that, in my opinion they do perfect justice to the ugliness of her performance at the US Open. She was clearly the favourite, but when things started to unravel her coach started breaking the rules (why would he break them unless he was pretty certain she would be watching?), Williams busted her racquet, started ranting at the umpire and finally insulted him personally, impugning not not the umpire personally, but the Game itself and it’s administration. I have rarely seen a worse display of bad sportsmanship and selfish behaviour since I was in kindergarten, and little Johnny Walsh literally took his bat and ball and went home because we didn’t make him team captain. His mother was even worse than he was, as they stormed off together.
The cartoon was perfectly appropriate and, in my view, dead accurate.
Sensitive Bludgers need to remember that if they want forensic, documentary accuracy they can always watch the replay (but it won’t be any prettier).
Asha Leu @ #149 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 10:30 am
Asha
Absolutely
It is pathetic beyond rationality when people on this blog attack the Greens for something Rex or Peg or Nicholas say. It is about as ridiculous as people attacking the ALP for something I say. i am a member but have zero influence on their policy. If (very, very, very, very, very occasionally) i have something that approximates inside info then I usually make it clear.
Time we stopped playing silly personality games and discussed policy like rational adults rather than like escapees from a Young Labor conference where internecine battles are the games played with all the enthusiasm and real world relevance of a game of Dungeons and Dragons (and indeed many of the same players).
don @ #138 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 7:22 am
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
I can completely relate to that.
For my one time on the slopes we arrived too late to take part in the morning classes, so I mucked around on the nursery slope for a while with my snow ploughing technique.
This soon resulted in me acquiring the false confidence to try a beginners slope.
All was cool until I reached a marked increase in the gradient and then all hell broke loose.
My two achievements were that by the bottom of the slope I could perform a baseball slide without my skis coming off and I didn’t kill anyone.
Then, utterly exhausted came the T-bar ride back to the top.
I don’t know how I stayed on it.
Pure hell!!
I had a lesson in the afternoon and found the basics not too difficult.
If only we’d arrived earlier!!! 🙂
A rather long clip (15′) but Lawrence O’Donnell argues persuasively that Dan Coats is the author of the
op-ed in the NYT:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2018/09/06/lawrence_odonnell_i_believe_dan_coats_is_the_trump_official_behind_anonymous_nyt_op-ed.html
C@tmomma @ #155 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 10:37 am
I’ve got some bad news, C@tmomma:
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/723867/Iran-Muslim-woman-risks-jail-cleric-orders-cover-up-video
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-woman-hijab-protest-arrest-jailed-prison-shapark-shajarizadeh-headscarf-white-wednesdays-a8439816.html
https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/07/11/iran-women-arrested-dancing
AM:
I have no issue with cartoonists holding Williams up to ridicule for her (ridiculous) behaviour. Nor are caricatures of individuals an issue per se. However, history is littered with stereotypical representations of racial/ethnic groups that are intended to pillory a group rather than an individual, and it’s where the caricature of an individual intersects with those that we have a problem.
There is no way this can occur with the predominant racial group, because a racial caricature doesn’t exist for them, so for that reason I would say that it’s okay to draw caricatures of members of the dominant ethnic group but not of members of minorities.
Millennial,
Yes, I think the woman was upset that the other woman had been jailed for a similar act. Also, as the article states, she was not arrested herself.
What we are seeing with Dutton is the same as what we saw with Bishop (the elder) and Dasher … a systematic execution. Over time, the dodgy stuff (which isn’t illegal but not a good look) will keep dripping out.
The Libs need to get rid of him … they couldn’t do it with Tony because he has the backing of the r-w media but Dutton is another matter. He will try again and they cannot afford for that do happen as it will completely fracture the party beyond any repair. So they’ll chip away and hope that he becomes the ‘sole’ bad guy and the party can skate over him with less damage than if he tried again.
Asha Leu @ #155 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 10:37 am
Asha
I hope for the green’s sake they replace Richard with Larissa asap. I do not mind Richard too much but he has not proved to be a good choice as leader. Sad to say I do not much fancy any of the others much either. Those two Tasmanian DO seem to justify the Teal Green image, just too business friendly for my left views. Sarah HY is OK in her way but not leadership material. Loved Scott Ludlum. The rest are pretty unknown. The new WA guy may be great but he will need 5-6 years before he could lead.
I think it is the best interests of the ALP and Austalia to have a strong left/progressive greens party.
My thinking is that they should return to their Greens roots and be environmentalists first and avoid the economic issues. I understand WHY they went down that path, but they have not negotiated it well and unless they backtrack they could well fall into the Meg Lees trap. I do not think Australia is ready for a German style centrist Greens Party. That space is already crowded – NXT and even Palmer.
Mind you I feel that the Libs are going to split so Aust politics are in a state of flux.
Dtt presenting as a labor member. Certainly a more skilful green troll than most
One of my first attempts at skiing involved my crashing into and knocking over an entire group of people receiving a skiing lesson.
Ante Meridian @ #154 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 10:37 am
I’m confused at how doing a caricature of Williams that exaggerates stereotypical racial features which she doesn’t even possess (her lips aren’t that huge, she’s not a small person by any stretch but neither is she anywhere near that short, broad, and stocky in build) would help portray her as either of those things.
Also, it would seem if anyone tried to cheat it was the coach.
Aren’t we all the minority group somewhere?
C@tmomma @ #163 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 10:54 am
True, but when it comes to Hijab Protesters in Iran the woman was the exception rather than the rule.
a r:
Quite so.
Roger:
Or, maybe, just maybe, she’s actually just sharing her honest opinions. Does everything have to be a goddamn conspiracy?
(And, really, just as with Rex, if you were going to get someone to try an manipulate online opinions to support your own cause, would you really go with DTT?)
poroti
I hit the big time – NT News.
Gichuhi unsurprisingly not putting her mouth where her bullying is.
a r,
Serena Williams does have large prominent lips. She’s also solidly built, much more so than the stick insects that mostly grace the women’s tennis circuit.
A caricature involves exaggerating a person’s features. So how in Blazes is a cartoonist supposed to portray her? Is there some special rule for her that cartoonists have to draw her with portrait-quality accuracy, while everyone else can have their looks distorted?
I don’t know of any sport at all at any level where a player can call a referee a ‘liar’, a ‘cheat’ and a ‘thief’ and expect not to get severely sanctioned. This is particularly so where millions of viewers are listening to every word, real time.
Further, Ms William’s threatened his future job prospects, and also referred to ‘my court’.
Roger @ #164 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 10:57 am
Roger
I have been handing out HTV for the ALP for something like 60 years and i am sure that even today i put a lot more effort in that you do.
I make no secret of my position. I am a maverick left very green leaning member of the ALP. If Iwere 25 I might well have switched to formally become a Greens person but having been a member of the ALP for 30 years before the Greens were a decent thing I see no reason to switch
Lucy, you’ll still be out the door in May. That’s the only reality, Everything else is a flat-out lie.
Alas, for me this was also true on all subsequent efforts. I found it far faster to walk through the snow, rather than try to ski on it.
I subsequently discovered that I have a foot slightly skewed, not so that it shows particularly (except as uneven wear of the heel of a right foot shoes I own) but which does mean I have trouble keeping the skis parallel. It would cost me a fortune to have special ski boots custom made.
I decided to save the money (which would only have meant I skied more, and consequently got cold and wet more frequently than I would have preferred) and spent it on booze instead.
Students of Potter will know that the biggest ski heroes live in the bar in any case and, if they are skilled, will make it seem that being pissed away from the piste is in fact the only worthwhile aim of attending a ski resort.
Having travelled widely in Iran ( I am male), women, individually or in groups would often mob me for a chat or coffee, looking for some foreign chat. No one blinks an eye. They mainly complain about how they hate, and ignore, their religious leaders.
There are plenty of gay men around chatting on corners too. Women in stilettos and next nothing on their head.
Iran ain’t Saudi Arabia…
This is Lucy complaining.
Just like the sheep exports, a damp squib.
Davidwh @ #169 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 10:58 am
Us ‘Leftys’ love minorities! 🙂
DTT:
Waters is impressive and charismatic, but her Q&A crocs gaffe a few weeks ago was, IMO, a pretty serious error of judgement on her part.
It is a shame Ludlum’s gone, as he always struck me as the ideal choice for leader.
Di Natale seems to be leading the party down a hole. His political nous have increasingly been shown to be, er, lacking, and I have little time for his attempts to tar both majors with the same brush again and again. There are certainly times when the same-same meme is a justified accusation, but more where it absolutely is not, and there seems to be an obstinate refusal on Di Natale’s part to give credit where its due to Labor. I always get this sense of cynicism dressed up as idealism from him, which was particularly notable during the party’s campaigning for the Batman by-election.
(In all fairness to Di Natale, though, he (and the party in general) definitely isn’t nearly as eager to criticize Labor or pull the same-same card as is often claimed here, and he’s far more vitriolic in his attacks on the Coalition than he ever is of Labor.)
More worrying though, is a lot of what keeps coming out about the party’s internal structures and a long-term strategies, and I think it’ll take more than a change of leader to fix that.
It’s getting to the point where I’m seriously considering preferencing Labor over the Greens next election (something I haven’t done since my first federal election in 2007, and only because I didn’t fully understand how preference distribution worked then) – the main thing staying my hand is that I have a lot more time for the Queensland party than the dominant Victorian and NSW factions, and my hope that the influence of people like Waters and Bartlett will help change things for the better.
‘autocrat
There is no way this can occur with the predominant racial group, because a racial caricature doesn’t exist for them, so for that reason I would say that it’s okay to draw caricatures of members of the dominant ethnic group but not of members of minorities.’
So, no cartoons of women, people of colour, people in ethnic clothes or Tasmanians?
Essential’s latest poll with primary voting intention:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2018/sep/11/the-guardian-essential-report-11-september-results
If an election were held today, the primary vote for the Coalition would be 36%, Labor’s would be 37%, the Greens’ would be 10%, and One Nation’s would be 8%
Bullied again, it seems.
BB:
That, or she’s been gifted a winnable spot on the SA Senate ticket in exchange for her silence.
Maybe both.
John Wacka Williams is threatening that the Nationals will run their own senate ticket in NSW if the Libs get one and two on the joint ticket (Jim Molan and Andrew Bragg)
In the broad:
The Greens modus operandi was the wedge.
The Greens brand was ‘holier-than-thou’.
The Greens tactics were ‘same same’ and ‘Kill Bill.’
To implement this, the Greens chose a Labor-Lite Leader.
The Liberals have shifted so far to the right that the wedge no longer works so well.
Sexual harrassment, bullying and the like have killed off ‘holier-than-thou’.
Even the most mug Greens now knows that Labor and the Liberals are not ‘same same’.
Greens’ ‘Kill Bill’ merely makes the Greens look like a sordid imitation of Dutton.
Di Natale has all the leadership qualities of a wet blanket. Mr Labor Lite is not cutting it.
Do any of these LNP politicians have any back bone whatsoever?
I’m thinking not.
Asha Leu @ #181 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 11:17 am
Asha
I agree Larissa and the crocodiles was a bad mistake but if she made a bit of a joke of it she could recover. Sorta apology come joke.
Yes the Greens are in a bit of a hole. They have NOT successfully made the transition from Bob Brown.
As I say their best strategy is to return to their green roots and regain their Mojo.
Ms Waters has done a few gaffes on Q&A. They are not gaffes of intellect. They are gaffs of personality.
Asha….despite their protestations to the contrary, dtt is Trumpy and Putinist. They hope for the worst for constitutional democracy, not the best. They use bigotry to excuse and promote their reactionary, nationalist, phobic and authoritarian values. They are not democratic, let alone subscribers to social democracy or an egalitarian order. They parade an entirely feigned leftism as a trolling device.
Serena Williams in some perspective.
I think the really low act was booing the Haitian-Japanese winner. What did she do wrong? Was that racist? Would they have booed a fellow American?
Basically I think Williams wanted that win so bad she couldn’t face a loss. The rest has become tennis history.
Boerwar
From your description of the cartoon you had not upset the ‘natives’ too much.
BW:
Yeah, I’m going to have to take issue with this one. I’m unaware of any particular attempt on the part of the Greens to go after Bill Shorten, besides general criticisms of Labor decisions and policies.
And why would they? Labor being led by someone perceived to be “right-wing” like Shorten (not that I think he’s any more conservative than any other modern Labor leaders, and on many issues I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the progressive stances he’s taken) is far better for the Greens’ long-term future than a leader like Albanese or Plibersek.
Are you confusing Greens MPs with Poll Bludger contributors again?
Williams has always been a sore loser. Doesn’t detract from her being a great champion and arguably the greatest tennis player of all time. I think her saying the umpire was being sexist was ridiculously OTT and unwarranted, though people say and do stupid things when they are under the pump.
p
It was not that long after a group of True Blue Territorians had decided to set up the Ku Klux Klan chapter in the Katherine. This initiative got as far as the all getting pissed and the hot air phase.
My life was threatened several times and I was twice lifted up by the shirt (feet off the ground) and threatened with round house punches by very big and very strong men. I am slight so there was no way I could physically defend myself. On both occasions I stated in a very quiet and calm voice that my hands were by my side, that I was not threatening them with violence, that there were witnesses and that the minute I got out of hospital I would be reporting aggravated assault to the police. This worked both times.
briefly:
Certainly, I can’t agree with much DTT has to say on Tump, Putin, and the respective political climates both individuals occupy. But your own claims about her motives are – like much of which you write here – ridiculous and hyperbolic.
DTT is just DTT. I’m almost certain there’s no sinister agenda there. It’s just the opinions of someone with rather, shall we say, unique, interpretations on many political matters.