Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Only the barest of improvements for the Coalition in the latest Essential poll, as reports of private polling in Wentworth confirm a collapse in the Liberal primary vote.

The fortnightly Essential Research result has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down just slightly from its 55-45 in the poll conducted in the very immediate wake of the leadership change on August 24. All we have of the primary vote at this stage is that the Coalition is up a point to 36%. Scott Morrison records a 39-27 lead on preferred prime minister, little changed from his 39-29 lead in the last poll. As with Newspoll, Essential’s second poll of the Morrison era includes its first approval ratings for the two leaders: Morrison debuts on 37% approval and 31% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 35% approval, up one on a month ago, and 43% disapproval, down one.

UPDATE: On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 36%, Labor is down two to 37% – solidly lower than Newspoll – the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is up one to 8% (their second increase in a row, the opposite of what Newspoll has shown). The full report is here.

The poll finds 47% disapproving of the leadership change compared with 35% in support, widening a gap that was recorded at 40% to 35% in the last poll (the narrowness of which I found hard to credit). Presented with a series of propositions on the leadership change, 63% agreed with the proposition that they had lost trust in the government and wanted a new one; 60% that Morrison “was not elected by the people and has no legitimacy” and “needs to go to an election as soon as possible“; and 67% that they were “sick of the major parties changing their leaders” and “consider voting for a third party to send a message to them both”. Also included are a finding that 69% think a policy to reduce carbon emissions important, versus 23% for unimportant; and leadership attribute ratings which I may or may not take a closer look at when the full report comes out later today.

Also today, The Australian has some results from a poll of 1000 respondents in Wentworth. The poll was conducted for Andrew Bragg, the early Liberal preselection frontrunner who is now set for a seat in the Senate, who seems to be publicising it to back his decision to vacate the field in Wentworth for a woman. A straight voting intention question recorded the Liberal primary vote at just 39%, compared with Malcolm Turnbull’s 62.3% in 2016, with Labor’s Tim Murray on 25% and Kerryn Phelps, who is expected to announce shortly she will run as an independent, on 20%. However, a secondary voting intention specifying a female Liberal candidate found the party’s vote increasing to 43%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,254 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 46
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  1. Pegasus@8:54am
    I asked following questions about Greens to Nicholas and Rex and I didn’t get a response, hope you can provide some replies
    1. Is it true Victorian parliament ex-Green leader Barber and Di-Natali are Co-son-in-laws i.e they are married to blood sisters.
    Or
    2. Is it true that Barber married Di Natali sister ie Barber is Di Natali Brother-in-law.
    3. If one of the above is true, how come Di Natali is resorting to nepotism in Greens party especially under his watch and that too in his state of origin because he can at least feign ignorance like he usually does if it happens in other state ?
    4. Based on recent ABC report, Barber behaved like a misogynist with his Greens women MPs, which Politicians on Conservative side will be envious of. How was such a person allowed into Greens Party let alone become a MP of Greens party where most of the MPs/ senators are women?

  3. The first code violation against Serena Williams was actually directed at her coach. Quite obviously he was telling her to move forward into the court on her points more.
    Everything else stemmed from that.

  4. Ven,
    Good on you for pressing Princess Pegasus to justify her party’s behaviour. I bet she thought the coast was clear and she could just start up the old cut and paste machine regardless. No doubt all you’ll get by way of a reply to your questions is some smart-arsed snark, as opposed to a genuine answer.

  5. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, September 11, 2018 at 8:48 am
    I still don’t know what was supposed to be either racist or sexist in William’s treatment.

    1. Coaching during a game is illegal.
    2. Williams was given a caution about illegal coaching.
    3. The coach (later) admits that he was coaching. It is clear from the vid footage that he WAS coaching Williams illegally.
    4. Williams starts shouting at the umpire that she is not a cheat, etc.
    5. She smashes her racket.
    6. Gets docked a point for racket violation.
    7. Calls the referee a thief and a cheat.
    8. Gets docked a game.

    My reading is that Williams bastardized the referee, Osaka, and the game. There is nothing sexist in the referee’s decisions which were straight down the line as both rules, procedure and the facts.

    As for the cartoons, illustrating Williams as a brat throwing a tantrum is entirely justified, IMO. If the cartoon is based around the fact that Williams is big and black then that is, IMO, entirely within a cartoonist’s remit. Every single cartoon in the world is based on the actual appearance of the subject.

    I have been the subject of just one political cartoon in my life and I had to laugh when I saw it. There I was, drawn to look like a bearded, long haired, stoned, white hippy lying under a bush doing nothing. The hair and the beard made me look vaguely like Rip Van Winkle. Was it a caricature? Of course. Was it me? Of course it was.

    Using the term ‘playing the sexism card’ is, IMO, entirely justified. There is zero evidence of sexism in the referee’s behaviour. Williams is using the pretext of sexism to try to explain away her appalling behaviour. Her other justifications, the ‘I Work Hard Card’ and the ‘I Am A Mother Card’ simply don’t help either. She worked hard. They all do. She is a mother. Lots of us are.

    BW

    Thanks for this contribution. I was thinking of doing something similar myself but you have dealt with it far more comprehensively than I could.

    You will never change the minds of those who indulge in this kind of stuff of course. Their determination to find victims where none exist knows no bounds. Racism and sexism SHOULD be called out whenever and wherever they occur (and you have an impressive track record of doing that on this site) but in this case the cries of victimisation are patently misplaced IMO.

  6. C@tmomma @ #103 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 6:46 am

    The first code violation against Serena Williams was actually directed at her coach. Quite obviously he was telling her to move forward into the court on her points more.
    Everything else stemmed from that.

    Coaches need to be placed in straight jackets and gagged if they wish to watch their players. 🙂

  9. Big A Adrian @ #23 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 7:39 am

    Interesting how Mark Knight decides to portray Serena”s opponent as a blonde (contrasting, of course, the black beastly caricature of Serena), given that it was a Japanese/Hatian who is just as dark as Serena. This is not the first time Knight has dabbled in offensive racist depictions.

    Did you watch the match? Firstly, Osaka is much lighter skinned than Serena, and she has yellow blonde peroxided hair, which she wore in a pony tail.

    I am not supporting Knight’s depiction of Serena, which is over the top, but exaggeration of caricatures is a stock in trade of most cartoonists.

  10. Barney in Go Dau @ #100 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 9:40 am

    a r @ #96 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 6:36 am

    Ante Meridian @ #86 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 9:24 am

    It’s ‘racquet’, not ‘racket’ in this country, for crying out loud.

    Such a weirdly placed ‘q’, all so that an extra ‘u’ can be inserted into a word that was fine without either. Don’t make me sic Donald Trump on you…

    Blame the French! 🙂

    Again, something I picked up after moving to the US of A, was that the name for a certain metal is aluminum and not aluminium. In my stubborn ignorance I insisted on the latter for years until it was politely pointed out that the original name in English was in fact aluminum. Along with other words, ‘upper class’ English adopted a different spelling in the period towards the end of the 1800’s and early 1900’s as a way of differentiating themselves, and especially using French adaptations coz, you know, they were/are more cultured. We learn from our betters. 😉 I never researched it, but it sounds plausible.

  11. Ven:

    Those all may well be legitimate questions, but I’m not sure how you expect random Poll Bludger posters who presumably have no connection to the inner workings of the Greens party structure to be able to answer them. These are the sorts of questions you ask actual elected MPs or party insiders, not rusted-on supporters on an online blog. (And Nicholas, at least, has stated numerous times that he’s not a member of the Greens, and isn’t even a big fan of them – he just prefers them to the majors.)

  15. Tony Burke‏Verified account @Tony_Burke

    We would happily provide a pairing agreement to make sure we had ministerial level representation to fight whaling.

    Peter Whish-Wilson‏Verified account @SenatorSurfer · 19h19 hours ago

    Senator Cormann said that the Environment Minister, Melissa Price, couldn’t attend the whaling convention meeting in Brazil because she was needed in the House. But here Tony Burke is offering a pair. What is going on?

  16. Sohar says:
    Tuesday, September 11, 2018 at 9:40 am
    One thing I’ve learned from reading this blog is how deeply ingrained racism is in Australians.

    I fully agree that racism is ‘deeply ingrained’in many Australians. I have observed it in a lot of people I know, some of them very dear to me. But I have seen very little of it on this blog. Apart from anything else, William wouldn’t tolerate it.

  17. On Racism. Upnorth no longer lives in Australia. For the last 7 years my family and I have relocated to various locations in Asia. Currently residing in the Land of Smiles, I am regularly called a Farang, Angmoh, Gweiloh, Gaijin, Lao Wai, big Nose. I am regularly charged more than others for goods and services based on my skin Colour. I am refused access to some venues because of skin Colour. I will never be fully accepted by the wonderful people I dwell amongst simply because of my skin Colour – but hey I accept that.

    Australia truly is a lucky country. Sure pockets of racism do exist as in all nations but we are a paradigm of virtue in a world which unfortunately still judges a person by the Colour of their skin.

  18. http://www.worldwidewords.org/articles/aluminium.htm

    The metal was named by the English chemist Sir Humphry Davy (who, you may recall, “abominated gravy, and lived in the odium of having discovered sodium”), even though he was unable to isolate it: that took another two decades’ work by others. He derived the name from the mineral called alumina, which itself had only been named in English by the chemist Joseph Black in 1790. Black took it from the French, who had based it on alum, a white mineral that had been used since ancient times for dyeing and tanning, among other things. Chemically, this is potassium aluminium sulphate (a name which gives me two further opportunities to parade my British spellings of chemical names).

    Sir Humphry made a bit of a mess of naming this new element, at first spelling it alumium (this was in 1807) then changing it to aluminum, and finally settling on aluminium in 1812. His classically educated scientific colleagues preferred aluminium right from the start, because it had more of a classical ring, and chimed harmoniously with many other elements whose names ended in –ium, like potassium, sodium, and magnesium, all of which had been named by Davy.

    The spelling in –um continued in occasional use in Britain for a while, though that in –ium soon predominated. In the USA, the position was more complicated. Noah Webster’s Dictionary of 1828 has only aluminum, though the standard spelling among US chemists throughout most of the nineteenth century was aluminium; it was the preferred version in The Century Dictionary of 1889 and is the only spelling given in the Webster Unabridged Dictionary of 1913. Searches in an archive of American newspapers show a most interesting shift. Up to the 1890s, both spellings appear in rough parity, though with the –ium version slightly the more common, but after about 1895 that reverses quite substantially, with the decade starting in 1900 having the –um spelling about twice as common as the alternative; in the following decade the –ium spelling crashes to a few hundred compared to half a million examples of –um.

    Actually, neither version was often encountered early on: up to about 1855 it had only ever been made in pinhead quantities because it was so hard to extract from its ores; a new French process that involved liquid sodium improved on that to the extent that Emperor Napoleon III had some aluminium cutlery made for state banquets, but it still cost much more than gold. When the statue of Eros in Piccadilly Circus in London was cast from aluminium in 1893 it was still an exotic and expensive choice. This changed only when a way of extracting the metal using cheap hydroelectricity was developed.

    It’s clear that the shift in the USA from –ium to –um took place progressively over a period starting in about 1895, when the metal began to be widely available and the word started to be needed in popular writing. It is easy to imagine journalists turning for confirmation to Webster’s Dictionary, still the most influential work at that time, and adopting its spelling. The official change in the US to the –um spelling happened quite late: the American Chemical Society only adopted it in 1925, though this was clearly in response to the popular shift that had already taken place. The International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) officially standardised on aluminium in 1990, though this has done nothing, of course, to change the way people in the US spell it for day to day purposes.

    __________________

  21. Knight has set out to humiliate Williams and has used several stereotypes to achieve that. Williams has been degraded. It smells like revenge-toon. He’s taking pleasure in her fall and adding insult to her losses.

    Knight is an idiot.

  22. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, September 11, 2018 at 9:59 am

    Again, something I picked up after moving to the US of A, was that the name for a certain metal is aluminum and not aluminium. In my stubborn ignorance I insisted on the latter for years until it was politely pointed out that the original name in English was in fact aluminum. Along with other words, ‘upper class’ English adopted a different spelling in the period towards the end of the 1800’s and early 1900’s as a way of differentiating themselves, and especially using French adaptations coz, you know, they were/are more cultured. We learn from our betters. I never researched it, but it sounds plausible.
    ___________________

    I was teaching a science class in Canada, and was rabbiting on about Aluminium, getting somewhat confused looks from the class, which I could not work out, when a lone hand was put up:

    “Sir, don’t you mean Aluminum?”

    So I tried valiantly to say it their way. Canadians are wonderful people, I very nearly stayed and became a citizen. The winters got to me, so I came home.

  23. Upnorth

    Yes – by definition, a country can’t be the most successful multicultural country in the world and incredibly racist.

    Which is not to say that racism isn’t a thing, or that it shouldn’t be challenged.

  24. He went too far with William a couple of months back.

    Sorry, bad keyboard. He ‘did a Serena’ on on the PB umpire.

    Ah.

    That, er, doesn’t surprise me.

  25. Asha@10:00am
    You and I do not know for sure whether they are party members or Insiders of Greens or not.
    I saw them criticise ALP (not LNP mind you) for a lot of things and it inevitably leads to how pathetic Shorten is. I think their topics included nepotism and misogyny.
    As you posted they are supporters of Greens and Di Natali. I was just asking how can they justify not criticising Greens and Di Natalie on above topics?

  27. Ven no one is under any obligation to respond to your demands but I am pretty sure Nicholas isn’t even a member of the Greens. He doesn’t really seem to comment much on party machinations anyway, more of certain policy areas which he has strong views on

  32. Thanks Don. Way more info than I needed. 🙂 Good read though.

    Living in Seattle we spent lots of time in Vancouver (initially to get something closer to home) and adopted hockey as the sport to follow, the kind played on ice. Once you get over the casual brutality it leaves most other sports behind in speed, power and skill. As an ‘almost Canadian’ did you get similarly infected?

  33. Kate Jones
    ‏Verified account @katejonesqld
    32m32 minutes ago

    Deb Frecklington says she may support a conscience vote, so Gary Spence (Qld LNP President) threatens preselections of her team – who is leading the LNP? #takemetoyourleader #qldpol

  34. Scott @ this mornings party room meeting…
    “It’s been keeping Australians safe. And it’s our job to ensure we bring all Australians together. That’s our plan. That’s my plan. So, let’s get on with it”

    Spoken with all the intelligence & relevance of a football coach.. onwards & upwards together with the bogan PM

  35. Is “the most successful multicultural country in the world” an independently established fact, or just marketing fluff that our politicians like to throw around?

    While aborigines are treated in such a paternalistic way, this cannot be considered to be true.

  36. imacca @ #89 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 9:29 am

    “Across the hall, is Gonzo dancing on the desk while the rest of the Muppets argue with themselves?”

    And will any Labor MP’s walk past whistling the theme from the Muppet Show?

    And, my only comment of the Williams Tennis thing. Much more significant stuff happening in the world and i really dont care if a sportsperson chucks a wobbly. Disappointed for the Japanese lady though who had something she should have been able to celebrate spoiled..

    How about a recording of kermit singing “it is n’t easy being Green – suts the deposed Malcolm

  38. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, September 11, 2018 at 10:16 am
    Thanks Don. Way more info than I needed. Good read though.

    Living in Seattle we spent lots of time in Vancouver (initially to get something closer to home) and adopted hockey as the sport to follow, the kind played on ice. Once you get over the casual brutality it leaves most other sports behind in speed, power and skill. As an ‘almost Canadian’ did you get similarly infected?

    ______________________

    No, though I learned to ski when I lived in Montreal for a year, the school ski club needed a patron, and I went out with them on the bus during snow season every Saturday as honorary staff member, with second hand everything and trakkie daks.

    On my first effort I did not even know how to snow plough, and went down the beginners slope shouting “Get out of my way! Get out of my way!” before I fell over.

    But by the end of the season I was going down nearly vertical slopes, jumping from left to right and back on the moguls, and coping with the lines of refrozen melt along the way. A great sport.

    And yes, ice hockey is a great sport, but I prefer tennis. Less violence, unless you are playing Serena Williams, perhaps.

  39. Ven

    Google Barber diNatale Sister, get this, first item:

    ” The surprise new leader of the Greens, Richard Di Natale, is aiming to make … head and there’s no turning him from it, says Di Natale’s sister, Deborah. … is married to Greg Barber, a Greens member in Victoria’s Upper …

    Wasn’t that hard!

  40. Re the history of the name aluminum/aluminium…. Thanks Don, that was very interesting and enlightening.

    Regarding another element with a divergent spelling… I would hold that American sulfur (rather than British sulphur) is the correct spelling. (Ditto sulfate, sulfonate, sulfide, etc are the correct spellings.) The word sulfur is derived from Latin, not Greek. The Brits arbitrarily changed the ‘f’ to a ‘ph’, for no sensible reason. The Americans have this one right.

  41. 7 News Brisbane
    ‏Verified account @7NewsBrisbane
    3h3 hours ago

    .@PeterDutton_MP is facing new claims this morning for pressing the boss of Customs at the time, to help two Queensland policemen get jobs at the new Border Force agency. #auspol #7News

  45. Look at these enthusiastic faces…

    Brett Mason‏Verified account @BrettMasonNews

    PM @ScottMorrisonMP tells party room: “We have a big mountain to climb. We all know that. The events of the past few weeks have been very difficult for us all. That’s done. We have a mountain to climb together. All of us standing together. Let’s get on with it.” #auspol @SBSNews



  46. lizzie @ #115 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 10:05 am

    Tony Burke‏Verified account @Tony_Burke

    We would happily provide a pairing agreement to make sure we had ministerial level representation to fight whaling.

    Peter Whish-Wilson‏Verified account @SenatorSurfer · 19h19 hours ago

    Senator Cormann said that the Environment Minister, Melissa Price, couldn’t attend the whaling convention meeting in Brazil because she was needed in the House. But here Tony Burke is offering a pair. What is going on?

    Whaling is one of those touchstone issues that runs the gamut of political party support in Australia. So many Liberals support the protection of Whales. In fact, we have the headquarters of Whale Watch around the corner from me here on the Central Coast of NSW, in a very ritzy house, because it is such a good place to observe their migration from every year, which a lot, a lot, of people do. Plus, they make good money from running the Whale Watch business. So there will be a lot of Liberal voters who will notice this decision by the ScumMo government, and they won’t like it because they will see it for what it is. The Tony Abbott Troglodyte faction bowing and scraping to the Japanese.

  48. Late Riser

    Just had that aluminum discussion recently with some Americans. And I think from memory the “our” in colour, honour etc came from a push in England around the same time to make it more “French”! While the color honor etc usage just continued in the USA.

    (Ice) Hockey – I remember at one winter Olympics a British soccer writer covered it for one of their newspapers and he was amazed. He said that the sort of moves and passing tricks that happen once a game (or season) in soccer and are raved about for years happened in ice hockey so often it left him dumbfounded.

  50. Ven:

    In general, unless they have stated otherwise, I always operate under the assumption that anyone posting here is just a random nobody rather than some form of party insider. There’s a bizarre tendency on the part of many here to thinking certain posters have a direct line to the leader of whatever party they support or being a “mole” sent here directly to stir up discontent, when I’d wager that the vast majority of bludgers are just expressing their honest opinions.

    Now, I have no idea about Pegasus, but I’m almost certain Rex Douglas is not an insider of any political party, and he certainly isn’t on the payroll of Richard Di Natale or Menzies House or whoever the current bogeyman is. Would you want Rex advising you on political tactics. Or pay him actual money to advocate your cause?

    In any case, the way your questions are phrased suggested that you weren’t really asking their opinions on the issue, but rather for actual, concrete answers about the the Greens internal structure and how they will (or won’t) deal with the Greg Barber mess. They’re the sort of questions you hear reporters yelling at MPs as they enter parliament house, not what you ask rusted-on private citizens on a blog.

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