Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor

Newspoll records another miserable result for the Coalition on voting intention, with a small amount of consolation for Scott Morrison on personal ratings.

The second Newspoll of the Scott Morrison era is no better for the Coalition than the first, with Labor maintaining its 56-44 lead. As reported in The Australian, both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, Labor to 42% and the Coalition to 34%. The minor party primary votes are still to come (UPDATE: Greens steady on 10%, One Nation down one to 6%). Newspoll skipped the personal ratings questions a fortnight ago, so its results this week are the first ever for Morrison, and the first in four weeks for Bill Shorten. Morrison is on 41% approval and 39% disapproval, while Shorten is up five on approval to 37% and down five on disapproval to 51%. However, Shorten has not replicated the 39-33 lead he recorded on preferred prime minister in the immediate wake of the leadership change, and now trails 42-36. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1653.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

878 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. poroti @ #793 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 8:50 pm

    rhwombat

    So Dutts is Pink after all…

    When I saw BF uniforms this came to mind.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8urkDqSoc54

    Scary Geldof.

    I did an an elective term at St Bartholomew’s, in London, in 1978. The local med students did a pretty good production of Cabaret – with a twist: during the staging of “Tomorrow Belongs To Me”, the flags that were unfurled were the those of the British National Front not the Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei. It was chillingly apposite at the time, the eve of Thatcher.
    Tomorrow belongs to me

  2. Phelps is pretty formidable, and currently an independent on Sydney City Council having resigned from the Clover Moore team, where succession plans were muted.

    The profile is huge; just about everyone would know her by name through her medical career incl Pres AMA, her gay rights and marriage campaign, her conversion to Judaism and her own marriage to Jackie Stricker was given big local coverage (the Stricker name well enough known in Medical circles and the Jewish community), two medical clinics straddling the spectrum – Surry Hills and Double Bay, and she is widely published.

    She’d be considered stable, sensible, reliable, and hard working, and a pair of safe hands, completely divorced from the Lib clutserfuk, without the poisonous ‘daddy will spin in his grave’ genetics if one dare vote for Labor, and so the candidate who gets ticked for all those who are uncertain, want to punish the Libs, but can’t vote for Labor, daddy and hip pocket say no.

  3. B.S.Fairman

    Yes, in Sweden it seems 82.4% voted against Sweden Democrats.
    They scored 17.6% and 62/349 seats, compared to 12.9% and 49 seats in 2014.
    As you say, mainly a problem because the Left and Right Alliances were so close, with 40.7% (144 seats) and 40.3% (143 seats) respectively.

    It reminds me of the German Federal election last year, where only 87.4% of voters voted against Alternative für Deutschland, and AfD gained 94/709 seats. I can’t see their vote getting much higher – especially as it is concentrated in the smaller population areas of the old “East Germany”.

  4. “‘Anything pro-union is shut down really fast’: Tesla workers speak out
    Elon Musk has said he is ‘neutral’ about a union but former employees blame their firing on their efforts to organize while current workers say a ‘culture of fear’ persists”

    I know Elon still has some fans here, but the smart money is all on Tesla being in big trouble if they can’t improve significantly

  5. ItzaDream @ #805 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 9:14 pm

    Phelps is pretty formidable, and currently an independent on Sydney City Council having resigned from the Clover Moore team, where succession plans were muted.

    The profile is huge; just about everyone would know her by name through her medical career incl Pres AMA, her gay rights and marriage campaign, her conversion to Judaism and her own marriage to Jackie Stricker was given big local coverage (the Stricker name well enough known in Medical circles and the Jewish community), two medical clinics straddling the spectrum – Surry Hills and Double Bay, and she is widely published.

    She’d be considered stable, sensible, reliable, and hard working, and a pair of safe hands, completely divorced from the Lib clutserfuk, without the poisonous ‘daddy will spin in his grave’ genetics if one dare vote for Labor, and so the candidate who gets ticked for all those who are uncertain, want to punish the Libs, but can’t vote for Labor, daddy and hip pocket say no.

    I like “clutserfuk” – it sounds malapropriately Yiddish. May I steal?

  6. rhwombat @ #810 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 9:21 pm

    ItzaDream @ #805 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 9:14 pm

    Phelps is pretty formidable, and currently an independent on Sydney City Council having resigned from the Clover Moore team, where succession plans were muted.

    The profile is huge; just about everyone would know her by name through her medical career incl Pres AMA, her gay rights and marriage campaign, her conversion to Judaism and her own marriage to Jackie Stricker was given big local coverage (the Stricker name well enough known in Medical circles and the Jewish community), two medical clinics straddling the spectrum – Surry Hills and Double Bay, and she is widely published.

    She’d be considered stable, sensible, reliable, and hard working, and a pair of safe hands, completely divorced from the Lib clutserfuk, without the poisonous ‘daddy will spin in his grave’ genetics if one dare vote for Labor, and so the candidate who gets ticked for all those who are uncertain, want to punish the Libs, but can’t vote for Labor, daddy and hip pocket say no.

    I like “clutserfuk” – it sounds malapropriately Yiddish. May I steal?

    The wonders of the unconscious! It’s all yours.

  7. rhwombat
    In the same year in the uni prosh parade I was part of about 50 Kiwi National Front (KNF) marchers. Our goose stepping Kiwi armband was to die for 🙂 The pièce de résistance was the organiser came up with an old open topped merc to ride in ahead of us. Needless to say the letters to the editor the next day were not amused.

  8. I hear tonight, Brother Love Morrison is lukewarm on Rupert’s agenda for the ABC and communications in general, and Murdoch is lukewarm on Brother Love’s conservative social legislative agenda for Australia.
    Hmmm…….

  9. and currently an independent on Sydney City Council having resigned from the Clover Moore team

    Yes, as someone who basically voted for the Clover Moore team including Phelps I can’t say I was terribly impressed when Phelps spat the dummy after only a couple of months.

    My take away from this was that Phelps doesn’t play well with others, so yes, she would undoubtedly be very independent (dumping the independent team to be even more independent will give that impression).

    I don’t know what the general feeling is, but I would disagree with this:

    She’d be considered stable, sensible, reliable

    Phelps’ behaviour wrt her position on SCC doesn’t strike me as ‘stable, sensible, reliable’. ‘Flaky’ and/or ‘egomaniac’ would seem more apropos.

  10. “Phelps’ behaviour wrt her position on SCC doesn’t strike me as ‘stable, sensible, reliable’. ‘Flaky’ and/or ‘egomaniac’ would seem more apropos.”

    I we all know, even on the other side of the country where little Sydney town is not in anyway important, that the Clover Moore team already had a full quota of that kind.

  11. Jackol @ #816 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 9:28 pm

    and currently an independent on Sydney City Council having resigned from the Clover Moore team

    Yes, as someone who basically voted for the Clover Moore team including Phelps I can’t say I was terribly impressed when Phelps spat the dummy after only a couple of months.

    My take away from this was that Phelps doesn’t play well with others, so yes, she would undoubtedly be very independent (dumping the independent team to be even more independent will give that impression).

    I don’t know what the general feeling is, but I would disagree with this:

    She’d be considered stable, sensible, reliable

    Phelps’ behaviour wrt her position on SCC doesn’t strike me as ‘stable, sensible, reliable’. ‘Flaky’ and/or ‘egomaniac’ would seem more apropos.

    Jackol, it was the general feeling I was trying to convey. I was careful to say ‘she would be considered’. I have had some contact with her and I’m only here to give my thoughts about what the good and not so good people in Wentworth are likely to think, in my not inconsiderable experience of them.

  12. Someone asked about preferences in Wentworth. FWIW my mother votes Labor and sometimes Greens, and she has said would give her 2nd preference to Phelps if she ran.

  13. Richo saying that he expects the gap to close between now and the election but he cannot see the Liberals getting back into it. He expects Labor to have a big win.

  14. Backseat?

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-30/same-sex-marriage-yes-campaign-advertisement/8857438

    “Advocates for same-sex marriage have fired back at an opposition ad which claims that changing the Marriage Act could lead to radical gender studies programs being taught in schools.

    The Coalition for Marriage on Tuesday released its first television ad, which featured three mothers and argued that children would be exposed to compulsory classes on gender theory if same sex marriage was legalised.

    Australian Marriage Equality has now released its own ad, featuring Dr Kerryn Phelps.”

  15. poroti @ #813 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 9:26 pm

    rhwombat
    In the same year in the uni prosh parade I was part of about 50 Kiwi National Front (KNF) marchers. Our goose stepping Kiwi armband was to die for 🙂 The pièce de résistance was the organiser came up with an old open topped merc to ride in ahead of us. Needless to say the letters to the editor the next day were not amused.

    🙂
    Goose stepping Kiwis, or Kiwi stepping geese?

  16. WeWantPaul says:
    Monday, September 10, 2018 at 9:27 pm
    “Footnote for Cartoon Corner: Mark Knight drawing some ire on Twitter with his depiction of Serena Williams
    https://twitter.com/Knightcartoons/status/1039017329030393856?s=19”

    I don’t know the Melb budgie cage liners well but I had assumed Mark was being deliberately racist in line with general media in Victoria. There are only so many clearly racist cartoons you can draw before people draw the right conclusion.

    Considering the way she behaved it seems like a reasonable depiction to me. People who behave like that deserve to be ridiculed.

  17. “Considering the way she behaved it seems like a reasonable depiction to me. People who behave like that deserve to be ridiculed”….I agree (and I am aboriginal), but the combo of race and gender is a minefield

  18. Minor point about the Knight cartoon – the girl (aged 20 so I think I can call her a girl) who beat her was not a pony-tailed blonde as shown in the cartoon. She’s Haitian-Japanese. Interesting that Knight drew a tennis cliche instead.

  19. For those interested in the election in Sweden…

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/sweden-faces-a-hung-parliament-after-election/10225024

    “As the final ballots are counted, Stockholm-based journalist Maddy Savage joins RN Drive for the latest on the results.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/sweden-s-centre-holds-for-now-but-who-forms-government-20180910-p502wn.html

    “And whoever wins, the rise of populist, nationalist and anti-immigrant parties is changing Europe’s political landscape, with centrists adopting far-right language and policies to defend their vote.

    It’s becoming a familiar story.”

  20. Jack Aranda @ #831 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 10:02 pm

    Minor point about the Knight cartoon – the girl (aged 20 so I think I can call her a girl) who beat her was not a pony-tailed blonde as shown in the cartoon. She’s Haitian-Japanese. Interesting that Knight drew a tennis cliche instead.

    Minor point about your statement. Osaka is Haitian-Japanese with peroxide bleached yellow blonde hair. She is shown as light brown, with blond hair in a pony tail, which is just as she appeared in the final. Cartoonists always exaggerate physical features. It is the nature of caricatures.

  21. “Considering the way she behaved it seems like a reasonable depiction to me. People who behave like that deserve to be ridiculed.”

    I think the problem with that view, isn’t so much that it is objectively wrong, so much as it is a standard, that while I have no doubt at all you apply impartially and fairly, has not been applied fairly and impartially to her. I personally would want to distinguish the appalling sexist treatment she has coped from ridiculous tennis authorities since Paris if not before, but Kyrios does worse most week and it is all ‘what a prat’. She was a prat, at worst once, and many in the press, lots of white guys in particular, carry on a lot like they just don’t like strong women of colour. They may or may not but they need to be a lot more even handed if they don’t want to look like employing a really really nasty prejudice.

    As for the line of rich white guys who’ve gone on and on about ‘the rules’, well rules don’t just need to be fair they need to be fairly and impartially applied. The number of tennis greats that have come out and said that just isn’t the case, far outweighs any fat white guy they might put on the drum. Valid as his white male privileged view is.

  22. Pegasus @ #823 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 9:45 pm

    Backseat?

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-30/same-sex-marriage-yes-campaign-advertisement/8857438

    “Advocates for same-sex marriage have fired back at an opposition ad which claims that changing the Marriage Act could lead to radical gender studies programs being taught in schools.

    The Coalition for Marriage on Tuesday released its first television ad, which featured three mothers and argued that children would be exposed to compulsory classes on gender theory if same sex marriage was legalised.

    Australian Marriage Equality has now released its own ad, featuring Dr Kerryn Phelps.”

    I was asking the question. You answered it. *golf clap*

  23. C@t:

    I’ve just finished watching that Maggie Haberman speech. Thanks for posting!

    I recall that she has (or had) a pretty good relationship with Trump dating back to her time with the New York Post, which she said in the speech is one of Trump’s go-to newspapers each day. So she clearly has a better insight into his temperament than many other WH correspondents.

    I also thought it was telling that Trump says one thing to his fans and behaves differently behind closed doors. The eg of his tweets trash talking the press as the enemy of the state while secretly wooing media executives in the WH stuck out for me.

  24. In announcing she would not support a no confidence motion ahead of the election of a representative for Wentworth, the Member for the previously blue ribbon seat of Mayo has detailed the projects the government will provide funding for as a condition for that interim support – and the List is extensive

    Given these concessions, how does the Liberal Party intent to wrest the seat back for the Liberal Party?

    I would think the Liberal Party have ensured the current MP is assured victory in the seat for the foreseeable future

  25. Observer

    I would think the Liberal Party have ensured the current MP is assured victory in the seat for the foreseeable future

    Not only that – they have presented the blueprint to people who live in other “safe” rural electorates (ie ones that Labor will rarely or never win). Elect an Independent and then see the attention that your electorate gets instead of being ignored by the Coalition.

  26. @Pegasus

    I predict the center-right parties will make a deal with the Sweden Democrats. Parties ideologically similar to the Sweden Democrats are in governments in Denmark (Danish People’s Party) and Norway (Progress Party).

  27. William in today’s Crikey with a wash-up from the Wagga by-election:

    Most of all, the Nationals clearly blundered in acceding to Liberal demands not to field a candidate, as federal leader Michael McCormack acknowledged a fortnight ago.

    I am at a loss to understand what the Nationals were thinking. Yes it was a Liberal held seat, but with no incumbent Liberal member, surely all coalition agreement bets would’ve been off, leaving the Nats free to field a candidate.

  28. The last time the Liberals and Nationals fielded candidates in the same state seats in New South Wales was in 1999. A lot of this is to do with optional preferential voting, which means their preferences don’t flow as strongly to each other.

  29. Nick Ross
    ‏Verified account @NickRossTech
    2h2 hours ago

    OMG @NBN_Australia spending a fortune on its moronic Check, Select, Connect TV ad. Talks about checking how many devices you have connected at the “busy period” in the evening. How many people are going to have a clue what that means? #auspol #royalcommission @MRowlandMP #nbn
    8 replies 29 retweets 38 likes

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