Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor

Newspoll records another miserable result for the Coalition on voting intention, with a small amount of consolation for Scott Morrison on personal ratings.

The second Newspoll of the Scott Morrison era is no better for the Coalition than the first, with Labor maintaining its 56-44 lead. As reported in The Australian, both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, Labor to 42% and the Coalition to 34%. The minor party primary votes are still to come (UPDATE: Greens steady on 10%, One Nation down one to 6%). Newspoll skipped the personal ratings questions a fortnight ago, so its results this week are the first ever for Morrison, and the first in four weeks for Bill Shorten. Morrison is on 41% approval and 39% disapproval, while Shorten is up five on approval to 37% and down five on disapproval to 51%. However, Shorten has not replicated the 39-33 lead he recorded on preferred prime minister in the immediate wake of the leadership change, and now trails 42-36. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1653.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

878 thoughts on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. Nothing official from Kerryn Phelps yet, but Samantha Maiden for one is convinced she will run in Wentworth, and if she can finish 1/2, will romp in on preferences. A worst case scenario for the Liberals – with their Eastern Suburbs rusted ons waiting with their croquet bats and polo sticks give Scotty from the Shire a good whacking for boning their darling Malcolm.

    And Kerryn Phelps looks right at home….

  4. A 27-year-old and 24-year-old, both of Fitzroy North, and a 27-year-old, from East Melbourne, will face court on December 4.

    What’s the go with the slow wheels of justice in Victoria?

    Shouldn’t they be in court this week to determine bail conditions and other preliminaries?

  5. Sprocket

    Malcolm Turnbull supposedly had an inflated margin due to his local popularity. I wager there would be a fair chunk of pissed off voters who could flock to Kerryn Phelps.

    Personally I think Phelps would be a good person to have in parliament (as an independent).

  6. Amy in the Guardian is talking about a “new” 3rd case.

    It doesn’t take much of a genius to work out that “what’s the go with the au pairs” is going to dominate much of tomorrow, especially now there are hints of a third case.

    I don’t think this is new.

    The original story was 2 cases in Brisbane, the Adelaide one was the new case.

    So, this “new” case may be the other Brisbane case that we haven’t had any details about yet.

  7. shellbell @ #754 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 7:46 pm

    A 27-year-old and 24-year-old, both of Fitzroy North, and a 27-year-old, from East Melbourne, will face court on December 4.

    What’s the go with the slow wheels of justice in Victoria?

    Shouldn’t they be in court this week to determine bail conditions and other preliminaries?

    See the link further down about who they are related to!

  8. Margot Kingston tweets

    2. In other words, Mr Bragg’s claim he selflessly stood aside for a woman at #WentworthVotes is just cynical crap. He gets safe Senate spot and a woman gets to fight for the Govt’s life in a marginal seat.

    and the feed continues

    https://twitter.com/margokingston1/status/1039078088942833664

    incl recalling Wentworth Reachpoll showed Libs primary at 39% if Phelps ran as an independent, and that a woman candidate would improve polling 3-4%

  9. Ides:

    These are the candidates for Liberal preselection. Of all of them I’ve only heard of Peter King.

    Former political staffer Katherine O’Regan, former president of the NSW Liberal Women’s Council Mary-Lou Jarvis and rheumatologist Maxine Szramka are the three women in the running for preselection.

    Also in the running are Dave Sharma, Richard Shields, Peter King, Carrington Brigham and Michael Feneley.

    I too think a quality high profile independent would do very well in Wentworth, esp without an incumbent.

  14. Looks like suicide-vest Boris has done a Baa-baa-na-by.

    Ditched his old stand-by-her-man-raise-the kids-wife for a newbie, with apple cheeks, no less.

  15. Maybe they’re so fast in Victoria that they’ve already sorted out the Walker brothers bail conditions or remand in custody, Shellbell.

  17. FS

    Odd there is no mention of an initial court hearing where those things were determined.

    That sort of brutality should mean reporting, some surety and no approaching witnesses etc.

  19. Amy on tomorrow’s Liberal Party room meeting(she’s thinking about a different show to The Muppet Show):
    And of course, Tuesday is party room day, where Scott Morrison is sure to invite the cameras in to get pics of the happy, happy, joy, joy party room family getting on with the job in action.

  21. Come back Julia!

    (Also from Amy Remeikis, reporting of a conversation Pats Karvelas had with JG today):

    But she is of course asked about the Liberal leadership change and had this to say:

    “I think it is a mistake to put it all together

    all of Australia’s leadership swaps

    and say it is all the same…and I think on the conservative side this is in many years a reflection of the kind of shake out in conservative politics around the world.

    “…I think, right around the world – are the Republicans the party of Donald Trump or the party of dear departed John McCain…are the parties of Europe centrist right parties as we’ve known them, or are they fracturing to the further right?

    She says that when you “take the personalities out of it”, the Coalition is experiencing symptoms of the same trend.

    Abso-bloody-lutely!

  22. Ven @ #671 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 5:49 pm

    Poroti@5:14pm
    William Bowe asked PBers a few days ago whether it is OK for those who use Scummo if others on the blog use Juliar.

    If the nym fits…though I’m coming around to Fozzy Bear, based on behaviour not appeal. Juliar didn’t.

    I do think we should develop a nominally orthodox cast of the GRASPer muppets (subject, of course, juvenile taste and predictable exigencies):

    Fozzy Bear: Morrison S (Morrison S & Pope D, SMH 2018).
    Kermit: Turnbull MB (Pope D, SMH 2018 -disambiguation: Greiner N ~ 1990s).
    Miss Piggy: Bishop J (Pope op cit.2018).
    Gonzo: Frydenburg J (PB 2018)
    Animal: Abbott A (Santamaria R Op Dei. 1975)
    Beaker: Pyne C (PB 2018)

    Please feel free to castigate and /or particpate.

  26. Interesting that cartoonists are portraying Morrison as a crazed preacher with a prominent cross…while he is desperately trying to be footy blokey dad…

  27. Greensborough Growler @ #684 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 6:14 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #675 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 5:56 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #672 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 2:50 pm

    Boerwar @ #666 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 5:41 pm

    spr

    ‘“Long time between calls” – the email from Russell Keag to Peter Dutton just tabled. So they had spoken previously? Not a complete nobody to the home affairs minister? ‘

    Not consistent with the what the Minister told Parliament at all, at all.

    maybe, maybe not.

    Dutton said he hadn’t spoken to Keag since he left the Police force.

    So, 20 years is a very long time.

    This needs more substantive evidence than what has been produced to date.

    The informal language used in the email suggests it is being written to someone who is or was well known to the author.

    Time is irrelevant.

    Get your chicks for free?

    Money for nothing…

  29. As Scotty says, “The curtain has come down on that Muppet Show, and another curtain has gone up!”

    The more he keeps,repeating this, the more it will be his ‘a good government which lost its way’ rationale used for getting rid of Rudd Mark #1.

    The transaction costs of boning a PM who was voted in by the people is very high. If the people don’t like a PM, they expect to have the right to vote them out. So a disappointment in not getting to vote out Abbott and now Turnbull.

  33. The Nats won’t give up Number 2 in the senate in NSW. The Liberals might have had the upper hand with the Joyce fiasco earlier in the year. But that was before last month……..

  34. Loving the Never Trumpers like Wilson and Schmidt and their use of language to describe TRump and his hangers ons!

    Steve SchmidtVerified account@SteveSchmidtSES
    11h11 hours ago
    Mike Pence, America’s most titanic fraud and quisling is disappointed in Barack Obama talking to the American People about the assault on our democracy being led by the man for whom Pence’s slobbering servility knows no bounds. I wonder what it would take for Trump to disappoint

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1038807503247757312

  36. Ides of March.not logged in @ #755 Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 7:46 pm

    Sprocket

    Malcolm Turnbull supposedly had an inflated margin due to his local popularity. I wager there would be a fair chunk of pissed off voters who could flock to Kerryn Phelps.

    Personally I think Phelps would be a good person to have in parliament (as an independent).

    Medically, Phelps used to actively promote some pretty dodgy ideas of “alt-med”. Politically, I have no idea.

  38. The Ramsay Centre and Syd Uni courtship has moved onto the dance floor.

    Sydney University presented a draft memorandum of understanding for a partnership with the controversial centre to a tense meeting of academics and students on Monday.

    Sydney University would limit the Ramsay Centre’s participation in a Western civilisation degree to one voice on an appointment panel.

    The university would have full control over the curriculum, sole responsibility for staffing and teaching, and require 12 years’ worth of guaranteed funding even if the centre decided to pull out after eight.

    The provost, Stephen Garton, who drafted the MOU, and Professor Peter Anstey, who put together an early draft curriculum, both spoke in favour of moving forward with negotiations.

    However, six out of the seven people who spoke from the floor opposed any partnership with Ramsay. They included the two union representatives and student representatives.

    The Ramsay Centre wants to fund a Western civilisation degree, with Oxbridge-style small tutorials at two or three Australian universities. The funding comes from a $3 billion bequest from late healthcare magnate Paul Ramsay.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/sydney-university-s-conditions-for-ramsay-centre-deal-revealed-20180910-p502ww.html

  39. Qanda looks like the student version tonight – all high school students apart from the Senators.

    ABC Q&AVerified account@QandA
    10h10 hours ago
    Tonight watch #QandA with @senbmckenzie @SenatorWong Dylan Storer Joanne Tran Rueben Davis Holly Cooke at 9.35pm AEST on @abctv @abcnews & @abciview

  40. My guesstimate would be Kerryn Phelps would be a true independent. I can’t imagine labor holding this seat for an extended time if at all and therefore she would be the best option long term.

  50. I have been convinced that Phelps will run since watching her on the Drum a week or so ago. If she does get up, she’ll be interesting to watch; she certainly does not appear to be any sort of apologist for this government.

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