Miscellaneous Liberal leadership latest:
• Roy Morgan has conducted an SMS poll of 1288 respondents with two rounds of preferred prime minister question: Malcolm Turnbull versus Bill Shorten, and Peter Dutton versus Bill Shorten. The former credits Turnbull with a lead of 52% to 44.5%, while the latter has Shorten leading 59% to 36.5%. Morgan’s SMS polling doesn’t have a brilliant track record, and it has been noted in comments that the party breakdown figures suggest a sample with an excess of “others” voters, which includes One Nation. Even so, the poll is unlikely to be so flawed that Dutton’s poor showing should be dismissed outright. The demographic breakdowns are of interest in that Shorten leads Dutton by about 45% among respondents under 35, but Dutton has a slight lead among those 65 and over, which illustrates that Dutton’s constituency closely reflects that of the Liberal Party as a whole. Dutton also does particularly badly in Victoria, but better in Queensland.
• The government has referred the question of Peter Dutton’s potential Section 44 ineligibility to the Solicitor-General, Stephen Donaghue, as Labor circulates advice that a “reasonable prospect” exists that the High Court would disqualify him, given the chance. Malcolm Turnbull’s equivocal comments about the matter in Question Time yesterday angered Dutton’s supporters, given the matter can very easily be swept aside by making no move to refer it to the High Court. The prohibition on parliamentarians with a “direct or indirect pecuniary interest in any agreement with the Public Service of the Commonwealth” was interpreted with extreme narrowness by Chief Justice Garfield Barwick in 1975, then far more broadly by a majority of the court in the Bob Day case last year. It seems a case can be made either way as to whether Peter Dutton lands on the wrong side of the new line, by reason of a family trust that owns two childcare centres in receipt of government subsidies. Anne Twomey in The Conversation notes the government could face a welter of litigation arising over any action taken by Dutton as minister while ineligible, which would apply from three months after the time he became subject to the pecuniary interest.
• Antony Green lays out the case against an early election. On top of anything else, it is noted that the Liberals simply aren’t ready for one, financially or in terms of candidate selection. He also comes down hard on the notion that Malcolm Turnbull could forestall a leadership defeat by going to an early election (which may owe its popularity to the end of season three of The Thick of It), on the grounds that it is so obviously self-defeating as to be unworthy of consideration.
• Nonetheless, the potential for a dissolution to be requested by a tottering leader raises intriguing constitutional questions. In her book The Veiled Sceptre: Reserve Powers of Heads of State in Westminster Systems, Anne Twomey cites somewhat contrary views from Robert Blackburn, who suggests a Governor-General would be “duty-bound to reject any request by a Prime Minister for dissolution during a leadership contest”, and George Winterton, who argues a chief minister should be required to demonstrate his or her support on the floor of parliament where the matter is in doubt. Blackburn’s quote raises the question of what constitutes a leadership contest, which is distinctly different in the British context he was addressing as compared with Australian practice. Winterton’s point arose in a piece on Australian state Governors, and well describes the attitude taken by Queensland Governor Walter Campbell in 1987, when Joh Bjelke-Petersen was setting the current record for intransigence by a leader in the process of being ousted by his party.
Out of curiosity, are there any Dutton supporters who are non-white. I suspect that deep beneath all of this is something about race.
Mike Carlton
@MikeCarlton01
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1m
Replying to @AlboMP and @TheTodayShow
Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake – Napoleon Bonaparte
The issue of the advice by Dutton is further evidence of how Trust Deeds are used to circumvent
Including tax obligations
Dutton has divested all interest and control under the provisions of the Trust Deed – but remains a beneficiary so receiving distributions from the activities of the Trust
The crux point used to be the Appointee who was considered the beneficial owner regardless
By dismissing an explanation of the Trust Deed the Apointee issue is not addressed
What we have by comparison is Trump = Turnbull x Dutton
By these “business” interests and the complexities these people disassociate themselves from the majority of the population
I also note the resignation of Sukkar – a former solicitor specialising in tax matters on behalf of the likes of Turnbull and Dutton
And his ambition in this is Treasury and Deputy Leader!
Antonbruckner11
I doubt it is really about religion. More like asserting white man privilege.
Victoria – political causes can have a cultic status. I’m not talking about organised religion. And, yet, I think there are deep issues about race going on here (very deep).
Antonbruckner11
Snap. I saw your comment after I posted mine
Observer – Is Dutton the Appointer under the trust? I assume that means he can appoint a new trustee and make distributions to himself if he wishes.
Just how many times in the last 20 years has Eric Abetz said it’s about “selling the message”… he’s an absolute total fuckwit
Someone with time on their hands at the ABC should check the video library
Vic:
Hasn’t Turnbull said he would resign if he lost the leadership?
What a great day for Labor. They move a no confidence or SSO and Bill Shorten gets to make a campaign speech on the last day of parliament. 🙂
Why on earth did one of the Dutton supporters approach Jane Prentice with the letter? They must surely have known she is pissed off at being dump at pre-selection in favour of a conservative. Dutton forces are clueless….. and they might just win.
Fess
I know he made those comments before last election. But I haven’t personally seen any reports he would do so under the current circumstances.
I am inclined for him to remain PM for forseeable future, and have to account for some of his dodgy conduct.
Meher:
It is all very well to rage against the progressive groups like GetUp but I have been paying a lot of attention to what the Liberals and their ilk are most afraid of, and that is GetUp.
They are far less worried by anything else, including Shorten and the ALP, environment groups, refugee advocates etc.
One thing that really opened my eyes to GetUp was this article: https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2018/april/1522501200/malcolm-knox/jeremy-heimans-start
Since reading this I have been donating thousands to the group. I don’t really know what they are up to, nor do I need to know. All I know is that they are very effective in upsetting the forces of darkness.
I previously supported environment groups and the Australia Institute, and that support will go back to them following the defeat of this government.
Rossmcg says:
Thursday, August 23, 2018 at 9:05 am
I would have thought it a good idea not to launch a coup unless you are pretty sure you will win.
Turnbull has been a very ordinary PM but the idea that the people behind the plot to oust him would be better is risible.
One thing we know for sure is that Dutton is as thick as two bricks. If anyone can stuff up a palace coup, it’s Dutton.
Zoidlord@8:50am
Let me put it to mildly
An empty chair got 38 votes against Abbott in the first spill and none of the ministers voted against him
In the second spill he (a first time PM) was voted out because his colleagues considered him to be a whack job.
I think none of LNP think MT as whack job. Yes he does not stand for anything. I think unlike 2009, this time around he treated his MPs and Senators with more respect. I also think LNP women parliamentarians like him more than Abbott and Dutton.
Take yesterday’s Phil Coorey’s tweet where 4 LNP women parliamentarians said to Coorey that they felt intimidated about the petition asking for party room meeting
So the closet, rusted on Liberal reasoning is that with the ascension of Dutton, groups protesting against Dutton will see Shorten and Labor defeated
@LesStonehouse @PaulaDale37 @GuardianAus Wow now @TurnbullMalcolm is pulling the s44 card out in full view.
This is going to get really ugly!!
“A senior Turnbull backer insists no meeting until there’s 43 names on a petition, and no meeting with a challenger “under a constitutional cloud”.
#auspol #libspill
Won’t someone think of poor Bill?
How laughter can do you in.
There are a number of ways you can actually laugh yourself to death. One way is if you happen to have a brain aneurysm (and 1% to 6% of us unknowingly do). In that case a good hearty laugh could cause the aneurysm to rupture. That’s because laughing increases the pressure inside your skull, and this in turn puts stress on the aneurysm.
Laughter can also lead to death by hernia. During a good belly laugh, you contract your stomach muscles which puts pressure on the abdominal wall. That force can cause parts of your bowel to protrude through. This is called a hernia, and though people can live with them without too much complication, it the hernia gets strangulated during a particularly hard bout of laughter, you could require immediate surgery. If you don’t get to the hospital in time, it’s possible to die from the lack of blood supply to the bowel.
People with severe congestive heart failure or COPD are in short supply of backup cardiac function and lung capacity, so a long fit of laughter could mean the heart and lungs simply can’t compensate. The normal physiological changes that take place during laughter would be more than they could bear.
The millions of Americans suffering from coronary artery disease are also at risk for death by laughter. Laughing gets your heart rate up and that could rupture and dislodge coronary plaque. This would block arterial blood flow and a heart attack would follow.
There are some cases where it’s not the actual laughter that kills. Laughing could be a sign of something sinister going on. Pathological laughter can be the first sign of a stroke or a seizure, and these seizures could indicate a brain tumor or other potentially deadly conditions.
Though it is certainly no laughing matter, people die from brain aneurysms, strangulated hernias, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease and strokes all the time. The point is, don’t let fear keep you from the joys of laughter. And since we will all leave this world at some time, having the last laugh isn’t the worse way to go.
Vic:
Yes, Turnbull should at the very least be held to account for the way he trashed the NBN and the billions of dollars wasted, as well as his inaction on reducing our GHGEs.
Ven
Turnbull has to answer for the half billion dollars he handed over to mates. Also the whole Michaela Cash fiasco is bubbling underneath waiting to be exposed. His handling of NBN is another. I also feel there is another saga awaiting exposure.
I can see why anti Turnbull forces want him gone sooner rather than later.
But the whole change to Dutton is crazy.
Uhlmann reports the PM and allies believe a war is being waged against them by the News Corp papers, @2GB873 hosts Ray Hadley and Alan Jones, and @SkyNewsAust evening presenters. https://twitter.com/TheTodayShow/status/1032400773861138432
In the current political dynamic the numbers in the Senate are irrelevant.
Assuming that Fraser Anning and his assorted nutjobs join with the Greens and Libs in blocking legislation then I can’t see Shorten doing anything but immediately calling a DD and removing that rubbish from Canberra. Just return the blocked legislation to the Senate and force them to commit political suicide.
guytaur @ #172 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 9:22 am
Gasp! Fake news!!!
Welcome to Coalition Cluckfuster, day 1811.
These arseclowns can’t even run a decent leadership spill.
Wow, Uhlmann has blown the whistle on the Spider of Yass. I’ve never seen that before in a leadership spill.
Corman presser in five minutes.
Labor better watch Mr Dutton closely.
Greg Jennett reports that Dutton is going on 2GB. Timing of motions now critical. Labor could pass another motion and win in the HOR.
Apparently Fifield and Cash will be with Corman
Perhaps they’ll be sorry for gutting the ABC, then.
Anyone in the Libs has hide to complain about media treatment compared with what Labor copped and still cops.
Its especially ironic coming from Renewables caused a Blackout not storms toppling power lines Mr Uhlmann.
Burgey
Spot on. Especially what JGillard copped. When she resigned I was actually relieved for her. I know that seems so wrong. But I felt so exhausted for her
Very true. Uhlmann is trying to save the party he loves.
Cormann, Cash & Fifield about to hold a press conference (Guardian blog). Could be about banning Huawei but…
Think about all the questions that Shorten has to answer but this Liberal leadership crisis is sucking up all the oxygen!!
Turnbull gone
Uhlmann reports the PM and allies believe a war is being waged against them by the News Corp papers, @2GB873 hosts Ray Hadley and Alan Jones, and @SkyNewsAust evening presenters.
Fuck he’s perceptive isn’t he.
The list of things Trumble has put more fight into than gaining/keeping the leader of the Liberal Party role is the shortest list in the history of lists.
Corman backing Dutton
Has Josh Frydenberg popped up to say anything?
Corman has pulled the pin. BOOM!
Dovey,
Yeah, great idea. Let’s have a DD to clean out the crossbench. It worked such a treat last time.
Cormann has jumped
Sorry GG but
Jeeeeeeessssuuuuuuussssss!!!!!!!!!!!!
How can Turnbull survive this?
My surprise was how long it took Cash to jump. I expect she realised PMO with Turnbull not going to have her back in Court
autocrat @ #175 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 9:23 am
1812. There’s an overture…
Stickin the fork in the Turkey.
Corman looks genuinely sad about it all