Miscellaneous Liberal leadership latest:
• Roy Morgan has conducted an SMS poll of 1288 respondents with two rounds of preferred prime minister question: Malcolm Turnbull versus Bill Shorten, and Peter Dutton versus Bill Shorten. The former credits Turnbull with a lead of 52% to 44.5%, while the latter has Shorten leading 59% to 36.5%. Morgan’s SMS polling doesn’t have a brilliant track record, and it has been noted in comments that the party breakdown figures suggest a sample with an excess of “others” voters, which includes One Nation. Even so, the poll is unlikely to be so flawed that Dutton’s poor showing should be dismissed outright. The demographic breakdowns are of interest in that Shorten leads Dutton by about 45% among respondents under 35, but Dutton has a slight lead among those 65 and over, which illustrates that Dutton’s constituency closely reflects that of the Liberal Party as a whole. Dutton also does particularly badly in Victoria, but better in Queensland.
• The government has referred the question of Peter Dutton’s potential Section 44 ineligibility to the Solicitor-General, Stephen Donaghue, as Labor circulates advice that a “reasonable prospect” exists that the High Court would disqualify him, given the chance. Malcolm Turnbull’s equivocal comments about the matter in Question Time yesterday angered Dutton’s supporters, given the matter can very easily be swept aside by making no move to refer it to the High Court. The prohibition on parliamentarians with a “direct or indirect pecuniary interest in any agreement with the Public Service of the Commonwealth” was interpreted with extreme narrowness by Chief Justice Garfield Barwick in 1975, then far more broadly by a majority of the court in the Bob Day case last year. It seems a case can be made either way as to whether Peter Dutton lands on the wrong side of the new line, by reason of a family trust that owns two childcare centres in receipt of government subsidies. Anne Twomey in The Conversation notes the government could face a welter of litigation arising over any action taken by Dutton as minister while ineligible, which would apply from three months after the time he became subject to the pecuniary interest.
• Antony Green lays out the case against an early election. On top of anything else, it is noted that the Liberals simply aren’t ready for one, financially or in terms of candidate selection. He also comes down hard on the notion that Malcolm Turnbull could forestall a leadership defeat by going to an early election (which may owe its popularity to the end of season three of The Thick of It), on the grounds that it is so obviously self-defeating as to be unworthy of consideration.
• Nonetheless, the potential for a dissolution to be requested by a tottering leader raises intriguing constitutional questions. In her book The Veiled Sceptre: Reserve Powers of Heads of State in Westminster Systems, Anne Twomey cites somewhat contrary views from Robert Blackburn, who suggests a Governor-General would be “duty-bound to reject any request by a Prime Minister for dissolution during a leadership contest”, and George Winterton, who argues a chief minister should be required to demonstrate his or her support on the floor of parliament where the matter is in doubt. Blackburn’s quote raises the question of what constitutes a leadership contest, which is distinctly different in the British context he was addressing as compared with Australian practice. Winterton’s point arose in a piece on Australian state Governors, and well describes the attitude taken by Queensland Governor Walter Campbell in 1987, when Joh Bjelke-Petersen was setting the current record for intransigence by a leader in the process of being ousted by his party.
My guess is Dutton has the 43 because they include Cormann
But Cormann doesn’t want to have any blood on his hands so that he can stand cleanly when the spill motion succeeds. Nothing else makes sense.
Sportsbet now:
Labor 1.32
Coalition 3.10
Katherine Murphy spells it out for the non political
Today is about Dutton gaining the numbers. He has not got the numbers yet.
Et tu Cormann?
Apart from Murdoch, Gina and some other miners I can’t see where the Liberals will get money from.
Certainly not the banks, energy companies or other corporates.
Imagine how it would look if we had real time donations disclosures.
You’ve gotta laugh. There are two horses listed for the Warrnambool race meeting today:
Race 3 No 7 They call me Malcolm – which has been scratched – and
Race 4 No 10 Exit Stage Left
Talk about omen bets.
JR – I’m sure that the main reason the Libs were so desperate to get the Coy tax cuts up is because the party is totally skint. They desperately needed the donor cash. Now that has disappeared too.
I just had to remind myself, members of the Liberal party are currently pushing for the election of a new leader, who is not only an actual potato, but could very well be ruled ineligible to sit in Parliament. And said potato is not at all popular with the few members of the general public who have actually heard of him and have any idea who he is!! Great strategy guys!
The Court has shown that it a strictly black letter law group of justices.
So, Dutton does benefit and hence is ineligible.
Samantha Maiden
@samanthamaiden
·
1h
Lot of Labor people texting and /or wandering around Parliament last night clutching beers, laughing, complaining these Dutton challengers wouldn’t know how to organise a piss up in a brewery, a root in a brothel, doesn’t anyone know how to kill a Prime Minister anymore
@MissDissentEats tweets
Quote of the day to @murpharoo with Liberals “fighting over the spoils of defeat”. The end result doesn’t matter. #auspol #libshambles
I am still shocked he got 35. Surely enough of them still realise that in dumping Turnbull for Dutton they will be wiped out.
Changing to Rudd in an election year was an attempt to save the furniture, keeping Turnbull is the same intent. The only way there can now be a spill this week is if a compromise(d) candidate gets enough moderates to support it. Assuming that doesnt happen, a bad Newspoll between now and next sitting (2 weeks?) and its back on.
A wonderfully deserving appointment to the NSW Supreme Court
[Ms Rees is the former dux of Bellingen High School on the Mid North Coast and
for many years funded a scholarship at the school for the student who tops the HSC
and the female student with the best mark in the HSC]
@Patrickavenell tweets
Phil Collins is touring Australia. His best song is Against All Odds. Don’t @ me.
Simon² Katich® @ #113 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 5:44 am
An empty seat got 35 votes a couple of years ago! 🙂
Yeah – if Dutton has the numbers, he’d let the petition talk. This is about projecting confidence trying to force the holdouts over to him.
Stephanie Peatling @srpeatling · 5m5 minutes ago
Lib MP Sarah Henderson is speaking to Jon Faine on ABC 774. She says there have been ”acts of treachery” & that she was offered a ministry to support Peter Dutton. “‘To be rewarded for an act of treachery would be a terrible thing,” Ms Henderson said.
If Dutton doesn’t get up, will there be a backlash in Qld (noting that most Liberal MPs in Qld seem to have voted against him)
lizzie
If true Sarah Henderson has a little more class than I credited her with.
@lizzie
So they ok to get rid of Tony Abbott
But they will not act against Turnbull?
Are they not just a bunch of hypocrites?
So what was Dutton’s press conference about? It seemed to be over before it began.
guytaur
So all that nodding was real and not faked support!
phoenixRED
Thanks for the Trump updates.
Like the Nixon saga – there is nothing quite like the prospect of spending the rest of your entire life in jail to persuade a person that maybe they should tell the truth. How many people would willingly sacrifice all the rest of their time on Earth so that Trump could carry on in his “first-class” life? As with Nixon, none I would imagine.
What amuses me most in this saga is seeing right-wing commentators in Australia boosting Trump at every opportunity. Just yesterday there was some piece in The Herald-Sun along the lines of “Trump’s dodgy associates in strife but the President powers on”. I suppose all these Panahis & Bolts etc may soon have a choice to make – do they keep backing Trump saying he’s the victim of some massive left-wing conspiracy, or do they just shut up and pretend they never backed him.
It’s also that Henderson is on a margin of 0.03% in Victoria
phoenixRED @ #5 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 6:33 am
What the hell is wrong with them? What sort of person puts “supporting Donald Trump” on the list of “things that I want”?
The New York Times editorial board writes about the Trumpification of the LNP
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/21/opinion/australia-climate-change-malcolm-turnbull.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Editorials
Stephanie Peatling
@srpeatling
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9m
Replying to @srpeatling
Henderson’s position is interesting because her seat of Corangamite is Libs most marginal seat – held by just 0.3 per cent.
Good morning. A quote from this morning’s Guardian political blog.
“Progressive forces are already marshalling against Dutton, and GetUp has played a significant role. Earlier this week, the group released focus group research and polling that showed Dutton lacked support and was a relative unknown among voters. GetUp has now come to parliament. They’re planning an event at 10am. They are gathering with human rights activists with photos of the children still on Nauru.”
If Dutton is elected as leader, which looks set to happen sooner or later, then the so-called “progressive forces” – GetUp, the Greens, Antifa, etc. – will be presented with an unprecedented opportunity to do everything they possibly can to prevent Shorten Labor from winning the next election.
Large groups of people shrieking at Dutton about Nauru, Manus, SSM, transgender bathrooms, etc. everywhere he goes will only help one political cause: that of the Coalition trying to win the next election.
I’ve heard many conspiracy theories over the years about agents provocateurs operating in far left organisations. I suspect that, due to the rampant stupidity to be found in that political sector, such professional assistance isn’t usually necessary.
Re: Dutton’s eligibility- many Bludger lawyers (a species akin bush lawyers, lol) point to Dutton having an “indirect” interest in a company that has a contract with the federal government. There seems to be no doubt that a related entity – the Potato family trust – owns the two child care centres in question. Kartoffelkopf is a beneficiary of that trust.
It seems to me the real issue is whether the “interest” referred to in s.44 extends to an equitable interest or not, or whether it is confined to legal interests. To be clear, Dutton has an equitable interest in the trust. It is actually a direct interest, but one held in personam, not in rem.
Rocket Rocket
We may just get two for the price of one.
Trump and his cronies crashing and burning. And the Liberal party imploding at same time.
The next few weeks will be Cray Cray.
Zoidlord @ #121 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 5:50 am
The case for change should only be supported if a perceived better option exists.
I don’t see anything hypocritical in that! 🙂
Nah, “In The Air Tonight” (original, not the over-drummed rehash.)
“I Missed Again” is also looking apropos.
This is so ugly. I doubt they will be able to pull everyone together and sing after this. This what the death of a party looks like.
Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk
·
1m
Scenario
Dutton PM by lunchtime
No confidence notion at 2pm
It succeeds with a number of disaffected and exasperated Libs crossing the floor
Election called by end of day for 6 October.
Shellbell 845am
A wonderfully deserving appointment to the NSW Supreme Court
[Ms Rees is the former dux of Bellingen High School on the Mid North Coast and
for many years funded a scholarship at the school for the student who tops the HSC
and the female student with the best mark in the HSC]
Having worked a bit in that region, this is the nicest thing I have read today. Great story.
Baba
Ah yes the right is so afraid of compassion that it is still running the line that having that leads to electoral defeat.
All that shouting is in fact why Dutton is so unpopular. As you so amply demonstrate the right still fails to comprehend this.
What is with Sky News ‘After Dark’, or whatever it is called going on about a ‘centre right’ government?
Can’t they fly the the RWNJ banner proudly?
I think for the Liberals supporting Dutton the only coherent policy is the culture wars.
Everything else is pure populism.
If Turnbull refuses to have another party room meeting it wouldn’t take very many Dutton supporters to bring the government down on the floor of the parliament.
Steve Price
@StevePriceMedia
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7m
Kevin Andrews confirms to Alan Jones only TWO signatures are required under Liberal convention to request a party room meeting the leader however has to agree – Andrews only had two when he challenged and a meeting was held !!
So Potato is doing all the public destabilisation himself, not by proxies. Doesn’t seem to be in keeping with an effort to soften his image.
Worse, when answering the journos questions walking back to his office following that ‘press conference’ he was all dead eye, blank face and mid distance stare … how does anyone think THAT is electable?
Would Turnbull have it in him to resign from parliament immediately if leadership spill is lost by him?
More Dutton shown on ABC News.
He has told the media he has the numbers
Andrew_Earlwood @ #142 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 6:02 am
… or someone with lots of solid support! 🙂
I read an article recently where someone said that the Tories in England used to be the non-ideological party. Now they are infested with ideology (e.g. the Brexit madness). It’s obviously the same in the loopy right of the Liberal Party. These people want to exterminate all possible heretics. Malcolm did what they wanted, but he did not have the right credentials. He was not an initiate into the cult. This is about religion, not politics. Unbelievable.
John R
As I mentioned earlier, I watched a bit of Sky News after dark last night.
Horrible stuff
I would have thought it a good idea not to launch a coup unless you are pretty sure you will win.
Turnbull has been a very ordinary PM but the idea that the people behind the plot to oust him would be better is risible.
A little ironic given the Oxfam charity walk in Sydney winds it way around Jerusalem Bay where the accident occurred.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/british-tycoon-killed-in-sydney-seaplane-crash-leaves-72m-to-oxfam-20180822-p4zz4j.html
Jennett just used the phrase Psy Ops 😆