Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential finds Malcolm Turnbull increasing his lead as preferred Liberal leader, Anthony Albanese drawing level with Bill Shorten for Labor, and little change in voting intention.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.

The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,484 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. adrian
    Leigh Sales manages to conduct an entire interview with the NFF re the drought, without once mentioning climate change.

    Worse than that Leigh finished up with discussion on farm subsidies & comparison with Europe , implying the answer is more handouts.

    Never mind we are farming where we shouldn’t ( infact never should have ) & that the EU farm subsidy’s are in support of 1000 years of cultural identity & it’s ties to the land.

  2. Poroti and Rocket:

    As you are aware, there have been mass extinctions in the past history of the earth when conditions became inimical to many life forms.

    We are heading there at a great rate of knots.

    Thermophilic bacteria will be fine, many marine organisms of the deep ocean, and maybe cockroaches, but it will be curtains for most species on land until fish populate the land again.

    Or southern great albatrosses, maybe. Dinosaurs may then repopulate the earth.

  3. Farm near my mum’s in Hunter Valley had a dead cow in it’s dam for days. Thought they needed the water rather than contaminate it. Some farmer are so lazy.

  4. “Apparently three government bodies, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, along with the CSIRO and the Australian Institute of Marine Science, now have to submit proposals to the self-proclaimed GBR foundation for research funds.”

    The question that Turnbull has to answer, personally, since he was obviously instrumental in the decision to allocate the funding, is exactly why CSIRO was not offered the $. If they wanted research with industry links then CSIRO should be their first option. Straight marine research, then AIMS.

    Govt has to account for this.

  5. Nicko @ #353 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 6:11 pm

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-22/great-barrier-reef-funding-labor-accuse-due-diligence/9785782

    Here is the May report ABC did about the reef funding.

    Since then we now know Malcolm had a big hand in giving this grant without any public servants present, and now we know who the four founders of the GBRF, as they only just revealed it, which KK asked back in May.

    So the upshot of it is that this is now an even bigger story than it was back then? The PM’s direct intervention with no due process for approx $500m funding.

  6. mikehilliard says:
    Wednesday, August 1, 2018 at 8:13 pm
    Farm near my mum’s in Hunter Valley had a dead cow in it’s dam for days. Thought they needed the water rather than contaminate it. Some farmer are so lazy.
    _________________________

    That is why you sterilise your drinking water when in cattle and horse country down the gorges:

  7. Fess,
    Yes it looks bad for the PM, he need to answer questions no doubt it, will any journo have the guts to demand answers?
    The guardian sent questions to the PM’s office but it was shuffled off to frydenbergs office to answer.

  8. Re GBR…Back in May:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/29/greens-want-inquiry-into-awarding-of-444m-great-barrier-reef-grant

    “The Australian Greens will push for a parliamentary inquiry into how $444m in reef funding was awarded to a small not-for-profit foundation with little scrutiny and without a competitive tender process.

    Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson, the party’s spokesman for healthy oceans, will move for a Senate inquiry into why the Great Barrier Reef Foundation was announced as the recipient of the record government grant without the funds being offered to existing government reef agencies.

    The inquiry, if supported by Labor and the crossbench, would also investigate the capacity of the foundation to meet the objectives of the government’s Reef 2050 plan, the proficiency of other organisations that could carry out similar work, and the foundation’s governance – including the management of commercial and potential conflicts of interest.
    :::::
    Labor’s environment spokesman, Tony Burke, said the opposition would talk to the Greens about the proposed inquiry.”

  9. Nicko @ #361 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 8:26 pm

    Fess,
    Yes it looks bad for the PM, he need to answer questions no doubt it, will any journo have the guts to demand answers?
    The guardian sent questions to the PM’s office but it was shuffled off to frydenbergs office to answer.

    Which came back with boilerplate evasion and self-congratulation about how great the Turnbull government was putting all this money into ‘Saving the Reef’.

  10. Nicko:

    #AlboGaveASpeech in June that sent the press gallery off in a tizzy over leadershit. No wonder this wasn’t followed up back then!

  11. A forensic psychiatrist analyses Trump and provides talismans for the distressed:

    So how can we hold onto our own mental health in the face of the danger Trump poses? First, don’t use logic or rationality to try to understand or counter Trump’s statements and behaviors. He is driven not by reason but by negative emotions that are infectious. Trump thrives on creating fear and sowing confusion. He lies without guilt. Don’t match his emotion with your own.

    Second, be clearer than ever about your core values, beliefs and principles, and rely on them for guidance and comfort, especially when you are feeling most triggered and fearful. Challenge every day the natural inclination to feel overwhelmed, fatigued or numb in the face of Trump’s behavior. This is what people with his psychological inclinations count on. Trump is aware that whatever he says repeatedly—no matter how outrageous—many people are more likely to believe, or at least to stop resisting.

    Lastly, recognize that fear is your enemy. Holding onto the opposites of realism and optimism is the best antidote. James Stockdale, a Navy vice admiral, was imprisoned for eight years in North Vietnam and tortured repeatedly. What he said afterward about how he survived is relevant for anyone dealing with feelings of helplessness and hopelessness: “You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/07/27/inside-the-mind-of-donald-trump-219074

  12. Peta Credlin is onto it

    Sky News Australia
    Sky News Australia
    @SkyNewsAust
    A senate inquiry is looking at how the Reef Foundation was awarded $443.8 million in the May budget

    @aclennell: Malcolm Turnbull has to explain why he made the captain’s call on this issue and why this organisation got such a generous grant

    MORE (link: https://bit.ly/2BuFqi1) bit.ly/2BuFqi1 #Credlin
    1:09
    1.6K views

  13. 1:09
    1.7K views
    Embedded video
    Kristina Keneally
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    2h
    In fact, I was told in Senate hearings by a current GBRF Board member that the story on their website about “4 businessmen founders in an airport lounge” was an “urban myth.”
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    After keeping their founders a secret for 20 years, Great Barrier Reef Foundation finally releases their names today in a statement on their website.
    2 days after I asked at the Senate Inquiry, 2 months after I asked at Estimates.
    From ⁦@p_hannam⁩ (link: https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/secretive-great-barrier-reef-foundation-reveals-four-founding-leaders-20180801-p4zuwb.html) smh.com.au/environment/co…

  14. One of the founders: Sir Sydney Shubert, father of John and right hand man to Jo Bjelke Petersen. How could the GBR Foundation be anything but as pure as the driven snow?

  15. I think the momento de la verdad with the reef foundation will come in Question Time. That will give Labor a chance to put it to MT direct and the TV stations to report his reaction. I wouldn’t be surprised either if a lot of pus is now leaking out of the Public Service on this issue.

  16. The coral research might be worth a punt.
    Coral species vary widely in their ability to withstand heat. There are coral species in some parts of the world that easily withstand the recent bleaching/death regime on the Reef.
    We have a particular problem. Right now.
    Staghorn corals, quick growers, are major reef builders.
    They are also more susceptible than other corals to heat stress.
    If staghorns are bred up to withstand an extra degree or couple of degrees then one of the main elements of the Reef – its physical structure might stand a chance.
    It would not be the same Reef as before because all sorts of corals and fish and coelentrates and annelids, etc, etc, etc, will become extinct.
    The heat exchange pump idea might work to keep species in small patches of the Reef going as a genetic resource.
    Reef ‘management’ is following the same tragic trajectory as land biodiversity management: erratic effort, effort disproportional to the need, and badly-focused effort being overwhelmed by a swelling tide of extinction drivers.

  17. Rocket rocket

    No doubt Credlin sees this as a way to help Turnbull’s demise.
    But this stinks to high heaven and he needs to explain on what planet he thought it was a good idea to hand over half a billion dollars without due process.

  18. I’m not sure why people are surprised about the GBR foundation. This government loves outsourcing. So now they have outsourced allocation and management of research grants for the Great Barrier Reef.

    This is just another example of the the triumph of neoliberalism and crony capitalism over sound policy.

  19. bc @ #377 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 6:44 pm

    I’m not sure why people are surprised about the GBR foundation. This government loves outsourcing. So now they have outsourced allocation and management of research grants for the Great Barrier Reef.

    This is just another example of the the triumph of neoliberalism and crony capitalism over sound policy.

    For me it’s that there was no governance or transparency around the allocation of funds.

  20. Boerwar @ #374 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 8:43 pm

    If staghorns are bred up to withstand an extra degree or couple of degrees then one of the main elements of the Reef – its physical structure might stand a chance.
    It would not be the same Reef as before because all sorts of corals and fish and coelentrates and annelids, etc, etc, etc, will become extinct.
    The heat exchange pump idea might work to keep species in small patches of the Reef going as a genetic resource.

    Un. Fucking. Believable.

  21. <p.Gecko says:
    Wednesday, August 1, 2018 at 8:50 pm
    Re reefgate: How did they arrive at 443.8m? Seems to be a fairly precise figure. Based on what I wonder.

    It’s probably an even amount in Cayman Islands currency!

  22. Fess

    I have been out of loop most of today, so I don’t know how much has transpired. I am mainly checking in to see if any further developments on the GBR grant.

  23. Need to go and look at Mars now that their is only patchy cloud in Melbourne. Closest approach since 2003 (which if I remember was just about as close as it can get with the relative orbital dynamics).

    Hope exposure of #reefgate at least results in that money being better spent, say on the CSIRO which has endured lots of funding cuts under this anti-science Government (no actual Minister for Science any more since 20/12/2017 – just Zed Seselja as an Assistant Minister – he of course part of the “Monkey Pod” Liberals whose hot air itself adds to Earth’s warming atmosphere).

  24. The inquiry into the 2018-19 Budget measure, the Great Barrier Reef 2050 Partnership Program, was established because Greens senator Whish-Wilson put up a motion. The motion was supported by Labor and crossbench senators.

    https://thirdsector.com.au/senate-to-probe-444m-great-barrier-reef-grant/

    “Under Freedom of Information laws, Labor requested all communications between the authority and the minister’s office but received no documentation. This came after the Greens called for an inquiry into the grant at the end of May.
    :::::
    Whish-Wilson said this was a case study in how the government has outsourced its core environmental obligations to the private sector.

    “In this case we have seen them outsource the control of the purse strings for reef science and repair, and in other cases we have seen the government seek funds from the private sector to save endangered species or help manage its own national parks.

    “There can’t be any more important task for the Australian government than being steward of the Great Barrier Reef, one of the true natural wonders of the world, and with this Senate inquiry we will get to the bottom of what it means to have had this funding redirected away from the existing public agencies.”

    Kudos to the Greens Party for setting the inquiry in motion.

  25. Vic:

    The focus of prosecutors on his ‘extravagant lifestyle’ gives further credence to reports Mueller’s approaching this as if it’s a Mafia corruption syndicate case.

    My view anyways.

  26. Malcolm Turnbull has not tweeted since last Saturday, when he was in Braddon with Brett Whitely.

    Come out, Malcolm. Your subjects want to hear from you

  27. When this issue re surfaced a week or so ago, the story was that Turnbull’s wife was presenting the cheque, and His Wonderfulness was merely present.

    I vaguely remembered it having been referred to some months ago, but it was presented then as small potatoes, I assumed involving donated monies of small proportion.

    Now Lucy isn’t even mentioned, and His Wonderfulness and Frydenberg were there with the recipients.

    Somebody is having us on.

    Mountebanks the lot of them.

  28. The forces are being marshalled to bone Malcolm Turnbull. And in an exquisite irony, the 2 things which will bring him down is his hubris on his own popularity, and his reckless disregard for the environment.

  29. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, August 1, 2018 at 9:02 pm
    Malcolm Turnbull has not tweeted since last Saturday, when he was in Braddon with Brett Whitely.

    Come out, Malcolm. Your subjects want to hear from you

    When things look to be going OK he seems to be everywhere taking selfies with unsuspecting members of the public.

    When the going gets tough, he gets going to places unknown.

  30. Reputable Government agencies having to beg to bunch of self selected unqualified nobodies for access to taxpayers funds to expend for Government purposes?

    Is this appalling Government outsourcing itself?

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