The Sunday after Super Saturday

A good night for Bill Shorten as Labor lands a surprisingly emphatic win in Longman, and does enough to get home in Braddon.

While Labor’s by-election performances were nothing special in historical terms, it was undeniably a good night for the party, thanks largely to an unexpectedly clear win in Longman. Five campaign opinion polls had Labor slightly behind in the seat, before the election eve Newspoll found them edging to a 51-49 lead. Labor actually appears headed for a winning margin of around 4%, bolstering a fragile 0.8% margin with a swing of 3.4%. The big surprise was the near double-digit fall in the Liberal National Party primary vote, which leaves them struggling to crack 30%. This is well below the 34% attributed to them by Newspoll, to say nothing of a series of ReachTEL results that had them approaching 40%.

The LNP slump rendered redundant what everyone imagined would be the decisive factor, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Despite this, One Nation were the other big winner in Longman, adding around 7% to their 9.4% vote from 2016. This indeed flowed a lot more strongly to the LNP than in 2016, reflecting the party’s how-to-vote card recommendation and the fact that they clearly picked up much of the LNP’s lost support. After receiving 56.5% of One Nation preferences in 2016, Labor looks to have scored only a third this time.

The Braddon result was less good for Labor, notwithstanding that they have clearly won, and that this looked in doubt throughout the campaign. The main change from the 2016 result is that independent Craig Garland scored a creditable 11.0% (although it may come down a little in late counting), chipping a few percent away from each of Labor, Liberal and the Greens. Rebekha Sharkie’s win in Mayo was of about the anticipated scale: her present lead over Georgina Downer after preferences is 8.6%, compared with her 5.0% margin in 2016. Sharkie’s primary vote performance was even more robust, up from 34.9% to around 45%. This bespeaks one poor aspect of the by-elections for Labor – after playing dead at two successive elections, its vote in Mayo has fallen all the way to 6.0%.

In the two WA seats, Josh Wilson did notably better in Fremantle than Patrick Gorman did in Perth, although neither was in the least bit troubled. Wilson gained 11.6% to gain a clear majority on the primary vote, with the Greens treading water at 17% and the Liberal Democrats garnering enough stray Liberals to land in the low teens. Despite the 42.3% Liberal vote from 2016 being up for grabs (compared with 36.9% in Fremantle), Labor only made a negligible gain on the primary vote in Perth, with the Greens also only up slightly. The rest spread among a large field of 15 candidates, with independent Paul Collins the strongest performer among claimants to the Liberal vote. Turnout was notably subdued in Perth and Fremantle, and looks likely to settle at around 70%.

If you click on the image below, you will find an accounting of the swings in Braddon and Longman and, in the former case, an projection of the final result. Since the swing on votes counted in Braddon thus far is exactly zero, it concludes Labor’s existing margin of 2.2% will be maintained. Also featured are regional breakdowns for Braddon and Longman, with the former broken into the larger towns (Burnie, Devonport and Ulverstone) and the remainder, and the latter into Bribie Island area and the remainder. This doesn’t turn up anything particularly interesting: especially in Longman, the swings were remarkably uniform. Craig Garland’s vote was a little lower in the larger towns, but there was otherwise little distinction to speak of in Braddon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

813 comments on “The Sunday after Super Saturday”

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  1. The Downers are an interesting family. When Tom Playford put a freeway through their Aldgate fiefdom, Arbury Park, Sir Alick Downer allegedly voted Labor – for the first and only time – at the next state election.

    Clyde Cameron was a house guest at Arbury Park. Mick Young once joked that when he praised the magnificent edifice there, he was told “that’s Alexander’s dolls-house”.

    John Bannon wrote a biography of Sir John Downer, a Federation Father. Not long ago a friend sent me a long account of massacres of Aborigines in the NT by early settlers – shootings, families pushed over cliffs, piccaninnies thrown on campfires. Sir John set up a royal commission, stacked with his cronies, to investigate. Result: nothing to report.

  2. zoomster: “Place against that that the Labor party regards it as a tenet of faith that it contests every election.”

    Every by-election? I can’t be bothered checking, but I thought they hadn’t run a candidate in a few of these over the years.

  3. Toff

    I hesitate to link this, but I think this is the one you have read.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2009/november/1330478364/tony-roberts/brutal-truth

    Sir John Downer, one of the founding fathers of Australian federation, was equally complicit in all this. An examination of the injustices and massacres of the frontier period reveals his name more frequently than any other Adelaide politician. His role is worth considering in detail.

    As attorney-general in the Bray government, Downer ignored a profoundly important clause in the pastoral leases – one that remains, with very minor amendments, to this day – that guaranteed Aboriginal people “full and free” access to the whole of the leased land and natural waters, the right to hunt wildlife for food and the right to erect “wurlies and other dwellings” as usual, as if the lease had not been granted. Its purpose was to mitigate the consequences of dispossession and prevent starvation.40 Downer could have changed the course of pastoral settlement in the Territory and saved many hundreds of lives had he upheld the law; instead, his illegal policy set the pattern.

    It’s very long and sickeningly detailed.

  4. ddt

    I appreciate your respectful and civilly expressed opinion about the Greens.

    I was happy when Bob Brown finally vacated the leadership. The Greens Party were always viewed as a single issue party despite its broad platform upon which its policies are based.

    imo Labor has moved to the left on some issues because there is now more public support for its positions for which the Greens Party prepared the ground over many years.

    The Greens have made the running on these same issues putting them up for debate and discussion in the community. In the past many of the Greens’positions were vilified and demonised.

    Now these positions are viewed as mainstream enabling Labor to be less timid in its advocacy and hence can now make the running against the Coalition without the backlash it might have experienced in the past.

    The Greens haven’t opted for the ‘middle ground’. Both major parties had moved to the right and the Greens is still on the left of Labor.

    There is now a rusted on Greens vote. The Party will persist to exist despite the wishes of the political duopoly.

    It will continue to advocate for the ‘big vision’ of a more equitable, compassionate and humane society – the very ‘big picture vision I support and the reason why I joined the Greens Party rather than another political party.

  5. To my mind, considering the gravity and scale of environmental destruction, it is just about unbelievable that the Gs make such poor use of their franchise.

    They wanna destroy Labor. Far tougher opponents than the Gs have failed in that pursuit. They will fail too.

    They should think again about their first and strongest claim to existence and work on that.

  6. John R: “I like the way the Liberals are trying to spin the result that it was lower than the average swing for a byelections. An an average is just that, a statistical measure. Every seat is different, with different margins, candidates and local issues. This government only has a majority of one seat and has been behind on the 2PP.”

    It would have been a good spin of the situation if they’d done it from the outset. Pyne was quite right this morning to point out that the Ryan by-election in 2001 produced an 8 per cent swing to Labor, and yet the Libs won the election held later that year.

    But the Libs got ahead of themselves and convinced themselves that they could win one or both of Braddon and Longman. So now the spin comes across as nothing more than a desperate excuse.

  8. A government-owned logging company is conducting a controversial experiment expected to kill native animals that are already heading toward extinction, the ABC can reveal.

    VicForests is owned by the Victorian Government and logs native forests for profit under exemptions to federal environment law.

    It is now logging parts of East Gippsland forest at different intensities to measure survival rates of the threatened greater gliders that call it home.

    VicForests argued the research would assist the conservation of the species, but acknowledged it was likely to kill some of them.

    In an email seen by the ABC that addressed similar logging nearby, VicForests’ staff acknowledged deaths were likely.

    “It is unfortunate that some individuals have to die in the process, but we really need to look at the big picture here,” a VicForests ecologist wrote.

    And when asked if gliders that survived the initial logging would die when VicForests burnt the leftover wood, the company’s manager of biodiversity conservation Tim McBride said: “Yep, that’s a very likely outcome.”

    Greater gliders — also known as “clumsy possums” — are the world’s second-largest gliding mammal. Until recently they were common in forests across eastern Australia from north Queensland all the way to Victoria.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-29/vicforests-says-experiment-very-likely-to-kill-greater-glider/10025588

  9. WA Labor did not run a candidate in the recent by-election in Cottesloe, held to replace the failed Lib Premier, Colin Barnett.

    Labor has never won Cottesloe and never will, so the decision not to run was a wise use of scarce resources even if it was emotionally in satisfying.

    The goose who replaced Barnett is a political 97 year-old. He is said to be putting himself forward as a replacement for Nahan.

  10. It would have been a good spin of the situation if they’d done it from the outset. Pyne was quite right this morning to point out that the Ryan by-election in 2001 produced an 8 per cent swing to Labor, and yet the Libs won the election held later that year.

    But the Libs got ahead of themselves and convinced themselves that they could win one or both of Braddon and Longman. So now the spin comes across as nothing more than a desperate excuse.

    I made exactly this point about a week ago. By setting the narrative as they did leading into the vote the Libs and the media have gifted Labor a much easier field to reset the story. Had the narrative been from day one about Government’s not winning these votes and how just keeping the swings down they would be in a better position today.

    But they went all in. They bet the house on Kill Bill and lost. Too bad, so sad.

    Of course even had they been sensible in their expectation setting hiding a 10% swing on primaries in Longman would have been hard to hide. But it might have at least had a chance.

    In short, Trumble is an idiot.

  13. So Labor won the seats that they should have won, a bit of strange result in Braddon, but nothing dramatic.
    The Liberals failed to win back Mayo, so they cannot be too happy.

    So really just continue on nothing to see here.

  14. Bullock has already joined the Liberal Party – the Tasmanian Branch.

    He has chosen to exile himself in the past.

  15. FS…I think Honey is 60-something in planetary time….at least 97 in political terms….another Archaic Relic

  16. OK, thanks Briefly.

    For a moment there I thought there may have been an opportunity for a future career after I retire from my present job!

  17. Spence….in visual terms, Sharkie is a Red Shirt.

    She is Not-A-Lib.

    Orange has also been misappropriated by ON 🙂

  18. briefly: “Bullock…has chosen to exile himself in the past.”

    Too right! I believe he’s living in Launceston.

  19. Widespread failures across the Sydney train network today. Closure of most lines. More pressure on Gladys Berejiklian and Andrew Constance given Sydney Trains repeated failures in the lead up to tue state election in March.

  20. We live in a post-literary culture in many ways. The adoption of Red Flags by Sharkie is a political statement without words.

  21. lizzie @ #407 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 1:06 pm

    Greater gliders — also known as “clumsy possums” — are the world’s second-largest gliding mammal. Until recently they were common in forests across eastern Australia from north Queensland all the way to Victoria.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-29/vicforests-says-experiment-very-likely-to-kill-greater-glider/10025588

    Sad. We still have greater gliders on our property. They are huge and impressive creatures, gliding up to 100m. I had not heard the “clumsy possum” term, but having seen one fall out of a tree, I can understand why they attracted that label!

  23. Lizzie.

    Mr McBride told the ABC the existing body of research on how to conserve greater gliders was not balanced because it was “all about preservation”. “The literature doesn’t support a balanced approach,” he said.

    I have to agree with the prof that this right up there with ‘whalers for whales’. It’s basically, lets see how resilient the little blighters really are. Maybe they won’t all die.

  24. The goose who replaced Barnett is a political 97 year-old. He is said to be putting himself forward as a replacement for Nahan.

    One of my friends actually turned her back on the Liberal party after that preselection decision. She said the seat should’ve been given to an up-and-comer, preferably a woman. She was outraged the old guy won preselection.

  25. Z, I’m at your service.

    Btw, I think the result in Mayo will be very heartening for McGowan.

    Not-A-Lib independent voices will easily defeat orthodox RW candidates.

  26. briefly: “MB, like many, Bullock has been attracted to Tasmania. Personally, I think it’s a gorgeous place.”

    Me too. But I don’t think I could live in Launceston. It’s a nice-looking town, with some beautiful scenery around it (Cataract Gorge, historic villages, the Tamar Valley, etc). But it’s too cold, its orientation to the north means that you seem to be constantly getting the sun in your eyes, and it seems to be an inwardly-focused and rather sad place: a bit like a once-important aristocratic family which is down on its luck.

    Having said all that, I’d far rather live in Launceston than anywhere in the Braddon electorate!

  28. I bought Massie’s ‘Peter the Great’ on the recommendation of posters here and thoroughly enjoyed it.

    If I liked that book, what should I read next??

  30. The decay of the Lib base is continuing. It’s well underway in Queensland. We saw something similar in WA last year, when the Libs scored just 26% of the vote in the Leg Council.

    The UAP broke apart in the 1930s and 40s. The same disintegration is occurring now.

  31. meher baba @ #392 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 12:55 pm

    DTT: “I see the suggestions on the Bolt blog (someone referred to them) about Cory, Abbott, Nationals and ??Pauline forces all merging into one making quite a bit of sense. You end up with a Christian right party. Some of the ALP from SDA eg Bullock might well be comfortable there.”

    Yes, there’s something in this. It would be a socially conservative party with a “free lunch” approach to economic policy and a strong anti-immigration stance. Rather Trumpian in fact (but probably a little more socialistic).

    But who would lead it? Abbott wouldn’t be fully trusted by the free lunch brigade (remember the 2011 Budget anyone?), and I doubt Hanson would want to be part of any movement where she isn’t in charge. Bernardi is a lightweight. I guess Latham is a possibility, but I think in his heart he remains a strong believer in the free market (although for how long I’m not sure: he’s given most of his other beliefs away lately).

    Anyway, it’s a ghastly thought: I can hardly think of anything worse.

    Meher

    It would be a horrid party but there are plenty of RW Christians who would love it.I actually put Pauline as a ? because I do not think her values really align nor do the LDP or indeed Katter.

    Cory is conservative but probably NOT a light weight. Dutton perhaps (I know Zig Heil), Kevin Andrew, Abetz as elder “statesmen”. I am thinking MOST would come from Qld and the nationals. Possibly the new right winger from Ryan. Christian Porter?

  33. Zoom….I’m sure you’re right about McGowan. Nonetheless, it’s a seat lost to the Liberals.

    The long hegemony of the Liberals is in its twilight.

    Labor has to be awake to this. There are great opportunities for us.

  34. TPOF,

    Thanks for providing that link. In a simiiar vein, Julia Baird:

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/shouting-down-your-opponents-just-cements-the-silos-20180727-p4zu1a.html

    The art of persuasion has been thoroughly trounced by polemic in public debate. Online, in comments sections, in staccato bursts of hate and attack, in the citing of feelings over facts, we see people shoving pillows over divergent views and trying to stop them being aired at all. When was the last time you were stopped in your tracks by a piece of logic that shifted your thinking on something important?

    Studies show that on social media, we are much more likely to seek out and promote views that converge with our own and shout down those that differ, even though they might be genuinely held. Which is dangerous, ugly, and ultimately counter-productive.

    As the host of a current affairs panel show on the ABC, where we work hard to present diverse views, faces, voices and cultures as well as expertise and authority on fistfuls of subjects daily, the growing anger from some of our online audience about just simply having to listen to different opinions is increasingly apparent.

  35. MB…the West is incredible in many ways….but I agree with you. I love the coast in the SE…incredibly beautiful

  36. I know I’m one of the despised “grammar pedants” (blame my father) but I cannot bear to see the expression “a Greens”. This is a comparative newcomer, isn’t it?

  37. Studies show that on social media, we are much more likely to seek out and promote views that converge with our own and shout down those that differ, even though they might be genuinely held. Which is dangerous, ugly, and ultimately counter-productive.

    That is why it is so valuable that Pegasus posts on Poll Bludger. She is the deliciously spiced stir-fried brocolli and tofu, or brocolli and teriyaki salmon, that Labor denizens of Poll Bludger so desperately need in their political diet. The posts of Boerwar and Briefly and Confessions and Catmomma and Andrew Earlwood are akin to junk food for Labor supporters – satisfying, yes, but healthy? Conducive to self-awareness and personal growth? Absolutely not.

  38. I’m looking forward to the dust-up following the next election when the Liberals will have to choose replacements for Turnbull and Bishop.

    Their internal hatreds and divisions will be exposed for all to see,

  41. N…I’ve never thought of my posts as edible. They’d break the teeth, unlike yours, which have the texture of marshmallows without the calories.

  43. Malcolm Turnbull says he will “humbly” re-examine his government’s policies after the Coalition failed to win two key seats from Labor in byelections on Saturday.

    I’d like to see that. 😆

  46. meher baba @ #345 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 12:00 pm

    c@tmomma: “meher baba, There’s a name for what you are doing. Concern Troll.”

    I thought that a concern troll was someone who ostensibly supports one political party/football team/etc. but constantly puts out undermining posts/tweets/whatever.

    That’s not me. Who do/can I support politically? Sadly, I really don’t know.

    Okay, okay, already! I was meaning today specifically. I mean, of all the things to pick on you chose Labor in Mayo!?!

    Anyway, whatevs. 🙂

  47. Nicholas,

    Cheers.

    I have stated in the past on more than one occasion, I deliberately post here as I am not interested in participating in an echo chamber.

    It’s good to see too that you continue to post here. Your posts are informative and insightful, and I appreciate your views being expressed so genuinely and with such conviction.

  48. Thanks Mr Denmore, a good summary of it all. While the tone on Insiders might have been reflective, I’ll bet London to a brick it’ll be theatre criticism business as usual from the press gallery when parliament resumes.

  50. Labor has to be awake to this. There are great opportunities for us.

    Yep. Helping the right to splinter is almost a core task. Labor knows the value of solidarity and also how hard it is to maintain.

    The vested interests have enjoyed the benefits of unquestioned loyalty of people voting against their own interests for too long. The ALP will be happy to assist breaking up this bloc and its electoral power.

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