While Labor’s by-election performances were nothing special in historical terms, it was undeniably a good night for the party, thanks largely to an unexpectedly clear win in Longman. Five campaign opinion polls had Labor slightly behind in the seat, before the election eve Newspoll found them edging to a 51-49 lead. Labor actually appears headed for a winning margin of around 4%, bolstering a fragile 0.8% margin with a swing of 3.4%. The big surprise was the near double-digit fall in the Liberal National Party primary vote, which leaves them struggling to crack 30%. This is well below the 34% attributed to them by Newspoll, to say nothing of a series of ReachTEL results that had them approaching 40%.
The LNP slump rendered redundant what everyone imagined would be the decisive factor, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Despite this, One Nation were the other big winner in Longman, adding around 7% to their 9.4% vote from 2016. This indeed flowed a lot more strongly to the LNP than in 2016, reflecting the party’s how-to-vote card recommendation and the fact that they clearly picked up much of the LNP’s lost support. After receiving 56.5% of One Nation preferences in 2016, Labor looks to have scored only a third this time.
The Braddon result was less good for Labor, notwithstanding that they have clearly won, and that this looked in doubt throughout the campaign. The main change from the 2016 result is that independent Craig Garland scored a creditable 11.0% (although it may come down a little in late counting), chipping a few percent away from each of Labor, Liberal and the Greens. Rebekha Sharkie’s win in Mayo was of about the anticipated scale: her present lead over Georgina Downer after preferences is 8.6%, compared with her 5.0% margin in 2016. Sharkie’s primary vote performance was even more robust, up from 34.9% to around 45%. This bespeaks one poor aspect of the by-elections for Labor – after playing dead at two successive elections, its vote in Mayo has fallen all the way to 6.0%.
In the two WA seats, Josh Wilson did notably better in Fremantle than Patrick Gorman did in Perth, although neither was in the least bit troubled. Wilson gained 11.6% to gain a clear majority on the primary vote, with the Greens treading water at 17% and the Liberal Democrats garnering enough stray Liberals to land in the low teens. Despite the 42.3% Liberal vote from 2016 being up for grabs (compared with 36.9% in Fremantle), Labor only made a negligible gain on the primary vote in Perth, with the Greens also only up slightly. The rest spread among a large field of 15 candidates, with independent Paul Collins the strongest performer among claimants to the Liberal vote. Turnout was notably subdued in Perth and Fremantle, and looks likely to settle at around 70%.
If you click on the image below, you will find an accounting of the swings in Braddon and Longman and, in the former case, an projection of the final result. Since the swing on votes counted in Braddon thus far is exactly zero, it concludes Labor’s existing margin of 2.2% will be maintained. Also featured are regional breakdowns for Braddon and Longman, with the former broken into the larger towns (Burnie, Devonport and Ulverstone) and the remainder, and the latter into Bribie Island area and the remainder. This doesn’t turn up anything particularly interesting: especially in Longman, the swings were remarkably uniform. Craig Garland’s vote was a little lower in the larger towns, but there was otherwise little distinction to speak of in Braddon.
c@tmomma: “meher baba, There’s a name for what you are doing. Concern Troll.”
I thought that a concern troll was someone who ostensibly supports one political party/football team/etc. but constantly puts out undermining posts/tweets/whatever.
That’s not me. Who do/can I support politically? Sadly, I really don’t know.
Confessions at 11.56
I think she is saying that she would be just as prepared to call out Labor government bullshit and spin as she is re this government. And call it how she sees it, not follow CPG groupthink.
Put another way, she doesn’t bag the government because she is biased to Labor but because she thinks Governments and spin merchants need to be called out.
One can only imagine that journos have never watched/listened to Georgina on the ABC in which she proved time and again that she has nothing worthwhile to contribute.
Oh you give journos far too much credit. Any sensible assessment of their brainpower from evidence of their output would conclude that they saw all of Downer’s efforts as an IPA stooge and thought ‘wow she’s cleverer than me…’
Same reason why they love Trumble so much.
Zoomster has the right of it. Georgina is a joke of a candidate on almost every level. Gender balance is about the only thing she has in her favour and if this is the best the Libs can come up with for female representation then they should just abandon the pretense and revel in their identity as the rich (preferably white, but money is colourblind) old male party.
Greensborough Growler @ #337 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 8:53 am
Pretty special and definitely not a throw. 🙂
…and climate change.
Lazy journalist ignoring the obvious there.
meher is in no way a concern troll.
I increasingly disagree with him, but he puts out his arguments and is prepared to fight for them.
In my book trolls are posters who put out the same bullshit repeatedly to get a rise out of the other posters here.
TPOF:
I’m not familiar with her reporting, hence my question.
Could it be that some of the CPG and others have a fixed view of Mr. Turnbull’s brilliance (instanced by ❓ ) and perhaps think that should a real unicorn event (a la Dinosaurs from Amber) occur and the polls reverse, being a dissenter in any way would be a career ender ❓
In any event the said CPG seem to have less knowledge than the dude briefly interviewed on ABC TV who said he had no idea who he voted for. A wonderful exposition which should be a hall of fame moment for we Ostrians. 😇
Watching ABC TV last night as Mr. Jennett prepared to make some opening remarks – just to his left on screen was Mr. Trent Zimmerman ( a handsome enough gentleman). Mr. Zimmerman was very still and for just a moment had the appearance of cardboard silhouette). I though he performed very well in attempting a defending role in a beaten situation 😕 (a difficulty level of 1.9 – a Forward 2 ½ Somersault with 2 Twists). Well done Trent and you performed well under fire later in the evening when the Labor gentleman got a little testy, if not downright uppity.
😵
Yes I’d also agree meher is not a concern troll.
Re Lizzie @11:48AM. There are lots of alternative voices. I’ve encountered nearly all of those listed and am on the mailing list for a few. I discovered many from following links provided by posters here. There’s a wide variety.
The big problem though, is that the Right controls all the megaphones. Labor needs to work around that.
At the risk of being drowned in a tsunami of well-deserved schadenfreude, I’m risking logging in here this morning. 😀
Dismal performance by Downer. They just can’t run her against Sharkie again. It’s giving a seat away.
No Meher isn’t a troll, concern or otherwise. Nor is Rex. They post what they think, like nearly all of the rest of us. They post some stuff I agree with, some stuff I don’t.
And more from Bolt who enjoyed this result almost as much as the Laboristas here
“Memo to media: as Shorten proved at the federal electiion, he is a much better campaigner than the knockers claim. The Liberals should now realise that pinning hope on Shorten’s alleged unpopularity and relying on a kill-Bill strategy is simply no subsitute for having the right policies, right lines and right results.”
Katharine Murphy shows that the Guardian’s political coverage is poor and no better than the partisan trash that passes as political analysis on Sky, News or the ABC.
But Grog.
So you read the Graun to:
a: get the CPG groupthink from Murph without having to wade through the Murdoch or the Bullshit Artists Formally Known as Fairfax sewers
b: find out a bit of what’s really happening from Grog
Diogenes @ #360 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 12:05 pm
🙂
I think Georgina Downer will probably be run again in Mayo. She won’t win it, but her dad probably still has that much influence left. But the LNP would be utterly mad to give her any safer seat, because she would promptly lose it.
Nicholas: “The Greens parliamentary wing has chosen a poor strategy of asking politely for relatively minor tweaks to existing policy in a desperate effort to appear mainstream. As a consequence, the Greens get all of the downside of radicalism (being laughed at and marginalized by most people) but none of the upside (that you are liberated to advocate genuinely radical policies!!). The Greens are perceived by most people as radical but they don’t get any of the advantages of actually being radical. They should be maximizing their appeal to people disaffected with the mainstream; instead they are really just an environmentally cleaner version of the mainstream.
In short, the Greens are neoliberals on bicycles.”
You mean you’d like the Greens to be more like the Socialist Alliance? Their national share of the vote was 0.12% in 2004, 0.08% in 2007, 0.08% in 2010, 0.3% in 2013 (a high point) and 0.4% in 2016.
I reckon that, for a party which is basically situated to the left of the ALP, the Greens have done remarkably well in attracting votes. I think they get a huge proportion of the available votes from the left-leaning people who are disaffected with the mainstream. I don’t really think they’d have much change of attracting the votes of most other people disaffected with the mainstream: eg, if they wanted to attract PHON supporters, they’d certainly have to give away their policies on boat people and immigration, and probably climate change as well.
Fess
Amy was responding to someone who said wtte how wonderful you are to get stuck into the govt in QT, because your humour is so enjoyable. She meant that if Labor was the Gov, she’d get stuck into them in QT too.
Yesterday’s results prove, once again, that the personal ratings captured in regular polls mean not much.
The only results that count are the Primary and the TPP.
Preferred PM – the leader of the party with the highest 2PP.
Everything else is bullshit.
lizzie:
Thanks.
The fires in the Northern Hemisphere (Greece & California) are a frightening example of what might happen here.
Darren Laver @ #332 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 11:50 am
Murphy’s response to someone on Twitter, voicing (politely) concerns about her coverage of these by elections, was to say why would she listen to some ‘random’ on twitter, says all you need to know about her attitude.
People on twitter are a potential audience that she can ill afford to alienate. Particularly given the fact that the content that this content provider provides is so wilfully inadequate.
They’ll run Downer again in Mayo because they don’t have any hope of getting Mayo back whilst Sharkie is around so they can:
1. not burn a potentially good candidate on a hopeless cause
2. ensure the problem of trying to find a winnable spot for Downer when there are better candidates available goes away for good.
3. save money reusing the campaign material
Pegasus
I think in all honesty your Greens are in a bit of trouble. They are doing well in some areas but more at a local level than national.
I think they have just not easily made the transfer from Bob Brown and while Christine Milne kept them level pegging De Natale has not. Not sure why exactly but he has not cut through.
I do not think much of either of the two Tasmanian replacements they seem pretty Meg Lees to me.
Labor HAS moved to the left especially on social issues and cut the ground from under the Greens. Middle of the road parties get short runs in Australia. They emerge, live briefly and die. It seems to me that the current Greens have opted for this middle ground which I think is a recipe for total failure.
My suggestions would be for the Greens to go back to their roots – Greens especially planning issues, public transport and PEACE. These are three areas where they can carve a niche separate from Labor.
No sense going to the middle. It never works. Carve a separate niche where Labor will not follow.
meher
I had a friend run for State parliament, against an independent – at the end of the campaign, the indie offered to pay his car expenses, on the basis that he’d campaigned for him. Which was the intention.
I have been told to run dead in various elections, but it doesn’t suit my temperament!
The Gs vote is gradually dwindling, a late-20th century protest voice fades into obscurity.
Meanwhile, the pressures in the environment only get worse.
Just putting it out there – I’m enjoying Nicholas’s contributions this morning. While I share some of Meher’s observations in response @12:11pm) I reckon that young Nick nails the problem with the current direction of the Greens at 11:33pm – except for his parting one liner – “In short, the Greens are neoliberals on bicycles“ which I disagree with on the same basis that I disagree with that charge being leveled against Labor.
I think the Greens leadership see the future to replace Labor as the main progressive partly by first replicating the ground vacated by Labor Left and then riding some populist wave to Nivarna. I think they are stuck on 10% for that reason. Further, I get the shits with Peggie for the same reason I used to get the shits with Labor Left – her attack modus is purely based virtue signalling via transactional politics: there is no ‘think big’, ‘policy boldness’ in there. Just snark.
I think Nicholas is right: a party sitting on the left flank of labor should be bold in ideas and policy terms – although I don’t really think it will end up leading to the electoral promise land either. But hey I still reckon the Greens would get that 8-12% they currently do. The upside would be some genuine policy differentiation. Something to actually debate. Even if one rejects the policy prescriptions on offer from the Greens at least one’s belief systems would get a decent challenge. One would be forced to think things through again. That can only be for the good.
lizzie @ #369 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 12:18 pm
It’s just a matter of time. If you recall, last year was predicted to be an extremely bad bushfire season. That didn’t happen, because of the amount of rain we had starting around October.
This year, the long term forecast is both drier and warmer. Let’s hope they turn out to be wrong again, but the reality is that the fuel loads just keep getting higher and higher, and soon they will be right and it will be truly devastating 🙁
I reckon Georgina Downer will end up as a Senator in the next 3-5 years.
BTW, although I agree that Georgina Downer is no great shakes, I don’t really share the delight of the rest of you in Rebekha Sharkie’s victory. I have a longstanding aversion to independents and small parties that don’t really stand for anything much beyond the parish pump and/or try to project a holier than thou, “I’m so above party politics” sort of air. A parliament filled with these sorts of people would never make a tough decision about anything.
@ratsak –
“So you read the Graun to:
a: get the CPG groupthink from Murph without having to wade through the Murdoch or the Bullshit Artists Formally Known as Fairfax sewers
b: find out a bit of what’s really happening from Grog”
This for me. Plus their Formula 1 coverage (from the UK Edition).
briefly
The Greens tried to emulate the German Greens. Fail.
Just took time out to read the following on the Guardian website. An excellent read, and quite relevant to some of what we are discussing here.
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/jul/29/i-didnt-want-to-write-this-but-the-courage-to-listen-to-different-ideas-is-vanishing
[Darren Laver
@darrenlaver
3m3 minutes ago
More
@AntonyGreenABC One thing that has been overlooked in the dual citz issue is what will happen after the next poll. Is it correct that for a certain period after the election, an elector can challenge someone’s citizenship status in court? ie. no longer a question for the house..
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Reply 1 Retweet Like View Tweet activity
Antony Green
Verified account
@AntonyGreenABC
Following Following @AntonyGreenABC
More
Replying to @darrenlaver
Yes. For 40 days after the return of the writ you can challenge the elected candidate, including their qualifications under Section 44.]
I think this has been overlooked. You would think Frydenberg and co would be sure to have their paperwork in order in time for the next election. I think you can expect a lot of “citizen challengers” this time around now that everyone is acutely aware of the dual citizenship issue.
Bk@8:27am
The 3 candidates they run in these by-elections proves the point that they think even a drover-dog will win on LNP ticket. For example, All of them live outside the electorate. Come to think of it even John Alexander of Bennolong lives outside the electorate.
I have no great aversion to independents in nominally safe Coalition seats. It’s hard for them to be worse than the alternative.
meher baba @ #343 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 12:00 pm
Meher
Yes to call you a concern toll is absurd. You are thoughtful person somewhere in the centre right of politics. But pretty Green.
My recipe for future success of the Greens are probably completely opposite to yours.
Mind you I suspect that we are in the process of a major party realignment just now so that anything could emerge.
I see the suggestions on the Bolt blog (someone referred to them) about Cory, Abbott, Nationals and ??Pauline forces all merging into one making quite a bit of sense. You end up with a Christian right party. Some of the ALP from SDA eg Bullock might well be comfortable there.
The rump of the Liberals would join what is left of centrist parties eg NEXT and Democrats and some Greens.
Labor would probably be foeced to move a bit further to the left.
The only obviously place for the Greens is as a further left party OR one that returns to its green roots and serves as a protest party. There is however the Peace issue that rather crosses the obvious left right boundaries and which is currently very fluid. The Greens may well recapture ground by owning that issue, but it is risky. Given Labor is all the way with USA and would follow them it on just about any silly conflict, this is perhaps a place where Greens to reclaim a voice.
It’s not their campaign tactics they should re-examine, it’s their policies.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/07/29/10/15/byelection-super-saturday-coalition-reexamining-tactics
The Gs business model is predicated on a contradiction- on the the proposition that they can attract Labor voters while simultaneously insulting the party those same voters affiliate with. Just ask wirking people in the suburbs how are they feel about the Gs. They see them as at best an irrelevance and otherwise as an obstruction to their interests.
The Gs effectively campaign against themselves a lot of the time.
They are on a path to invisibility.
ratsak @ #382 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 10:33 am
Completely agree with this.
Excuse my ignorance, but what happened to the High Court challenge to Dr Gillespie?
There goes 3 rainforests worth of newspaper speculation about the Labor leadership. As you were.
The press gallery can’t help themselves. In reading today that Shorten is safe, I see an implied qualifier for now (perhaps it is just me).
And as I posted earlier, at least some of them will depict the NEG negotiations next month as a test for Shorten.
zoomster: “I have been told to run dead in various elections, but it doesn’t suit my temperament!”
That’s the sort of Labor attitude I’m more familiar with: eg, Labor types from the North Sydney area always seemed to hate and despise Ted Mack, almost to the extent that they would have rather seen him beaten by the Libs.
And I remain unconvinced that the decision to run a Labor candidate in Mayo was a clever strategy, as I cannot see how it could have been of any possible help to Sharkie. If the idea was that they would get out the Labor vote, and then pass on preferences to Sharkie, then they didn’t achieve anything because it looks as if Sharkie would have won without any of the preferences from the Labor candidate.
The Libs had the right idea in Batman (even though it didn’t work out on that occasion): if you feel you can’t win, and you wan’t a third party candidate or independent to defeat your main opponent, then don’t run at all. If you run, you always risk splitting the vote of the candidate you hope to win and finishing ahead of them, thereby knocking them out.
Bill putting it right up media and Turnbull!
Poroti, the electoral system in Germany is hospitable to minor voices, such as the Gs. They can eke out a political living there.
The system here is similar in the Senate, where the Gs are able to cling to their perch.
They have neither the strategy nor the resources to compete and displace a major party in lower houses in any Australian parliament.
They should wake up to this. They are not entirely without power, but they make no use of it at all.
meher
Place against that that the Labor party regards it as a tenet of faith that it contests every election.
I like the way the Liberals are trying to spin the result that it was lower than the average swing for a byelections. An an average is just that, a statistical measure. Every seat is different, with different margins, candidates and local issues.
This government only has a majority of one seat and has been behind on the 2PP.
Meher – no risk of Labor getting ahead of Sharkie. Headline in todays Sunday Mail “Sharkie’s Revenge” really silly. And editorial not much better _ apathy of voters most observable feature of by election.
Interestingly, Sharkie adopted Labor’s colours in the campaign – Labor Red everywhere.
She identified herself as the Not-A-Lib candidate.
She cleaned up. The Not-A-Lib plurality in Mayo is huge. This must trouble the SA Libs. Where will the post-Xenophon vote go? Clearly, not straight back to the Liberal Party.
DTT: “I see the suggestions on the Bolt blog (someone referred to them) about Cory, Abbott, Nationals and ??Pauline forces all merging into one making quite a bit of sense. You end up with a Christian right party. Some of the ALP from SDA eg Bullock might well be comfortable there.”
Yes, there’s something in this. It would be a socially conservative party with a “free lunch” approach to economic policy and a strong anti-immigration stance. Rather Trumpian in fact (but probably a little more socialistic).
But who would lead it? Abbott wouldn’t be fully trusted by the free lunch brigade (remember the 2011 Budget anyone?), and I doubt Hanson would want to be part of any movement where she isn’t in charge. Bernardi is a lightweight. I guess Latham is a possibility, but I think in his heart he remains a strong believer in the free market (although for how long I’m not sure: he’s given most of his other beliefs away lately).
Anyway, it’s a ghastly thought: I can hardly think of anything worse.