BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor (still)

The addition of Newspoll’s state breakdowns to the BludgerTrack results in a net gain of two for the Coalition on the national seat projection.

There were no new federal polls this week, but we did get repackaged old ones in the form of quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll and Ipsos. I only have full results from the former at this stage, but am hopeful of acquiring the latter next week. So all that’s happened in this week’s BludgerTrack update is that the new Newspoll data has been used to recalculate state breakdowns, with the national results exactly as they were last week.

As is often the case, the big hit of Newspoll state data has made little difference in the larger states, but quite a bit in the smaller ones, where samples are smaller and results less robust. This puts the Coalition solidly up in both Western Australia and South Australia, where they gain one seat apiece on the seat projections. While the changes in Victoria and Queensland are small, they have put the Coalition up a seat in Victoria and down one in Queensland. So the net effect of the changes is a two-seat gain to the Coalition, with Labor now projected to win 86 seats nationally to the Coalition’s 60.

Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor (still)”

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  1. “Rosenstein has been a hero to date. The institution of law is holding up fairly well in no small part due to his tireless efforts.”

    He has been holding up remarkably well for a Republican, I’m not sure the institutions of law are holding up at all well, the SCOTUS in particular has suffered massive probably irreparable damage. The FBI has suffered massive damage, the DoJ has suffered massive damage. We will see how they holdup.

    Rosenstein hasn’t betrayed all honour and does appear to be doing a version of his job (not the version he’d wheel out for a dem in the same position as Trump though make no mistake, think of Comey and Hillary’s emails kind of difference). He may well finish the job and deserve to be called a hero, I just think it is way to early to call.

  2. Rosenstein briefed the key beneficiary and chief suspect of a criminal election rigging investigation, about the investigation just before the chief suspect was going to attend a meeting with the known criminal mastermind. I can’t see DoJ or the FBI ever extending that curtesy to a dem President, in the extraordinarily unlikely event the Dem president hadn’t been forced to stand aside or down long before now.

  3. Kissinger has met with Trump several times. Could this be what is playing out ?

    45 years ago, Kissinger envisioned a ‘pivot’ to Russia. Will Trump make it happen?

    On Feb. 14, 1972, President Richard Nixon and his national security adviser Henry Kissinger met to discuss Nixon’s upcoming trip to China. Kissinger, who had already taken his secret trip to China to begin Nixon’s historic opening to Beijing, expressed the view that compared with the Russians, the Chinese were “just as dangerous. In fact, they’re more dangerous over a historical period.”

    Kissinger then observed that “in 20 years your successor, if he’s as wise as you, will wind up leaning towards the Russians against the Chinese.” He argued that the United States, as it sought to profit from the enmity between Moscow and Beijing, needed “to play this balance-of-power game totally unemotionally. Right now, we need the Chinese to correct the Russians and to discipline the Russians.” But in the future, it would be the other way around.

    Could it be that, almost 45 years after Nixon’s breakthrough with China, the United States’ 45th president will be taking Kissinger’s advice? President Obama tried to make a “pivot” to Asia the capstone of his foreign policy. Will Donald Trump make a “pivot” toward Moscow, and away from Beijing, a capstone of his?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2016/12/14/45-years-ago-kissinger-envisioned-a-pivot-to-russia-will-trump-make-it-happen/?noredirect=on

  4. Sceptic @ #183 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 6:50 pm

    Trumps Chequers comments seem even more bizarre, CNN report that Rosenstein informed Trump of the pending inditments before he departed for Europe.

    A reminder from ‘Fire & Fury’ about the background of Rosenstein as Deputy Attorney General to Sessions and the sacking of Comey –

    Rod Rosenstein, the author of the letter that ostensibly provided the justification for firing Comey, now stood in the line of fire. The fifty-two-year-old Rosenstein, who, in rimless glasses, seemed to style himself as a bureaucrat’s bureaucrat, was the longest-serving U.S. attorney in the country.

    He lived within the system, all by the book, his highest goal seeming to be to have people say he did things by the book. He was a straight shooter—and he wanted everyone to know it.

    All this was undermined by Trump—trashed, even. The brow-beating and snarling president had hectored the country’s two top law enforcement officials into an ill-considered or, at the very least, an ill-timed indictment of the director of the FBI. Rosenstein was already feeling used and abused. And then he was shown to have been tricked, too. He was a dupe.

    The president had forced Rosenstein and Sessions to construct a legal rationale, yet then he could not even maintain the bureaucratic pretense of following it. Having enlisted Rosenstein and Sessions in his plot, Trump now exposed their efforts to present a reasonable and aboveboard case as a sham—and, arguably, a plan to obstruct justice.

    The president made it perfectly clear that he hadn’t fired the director of the FBI because he did Hillary wrong; he fired Comey because the FBI was too aggressively investigating him and his administration.

    Hyper-by-the-book Rod Rosenstein—heretofore the quintessential apolitical player—immediately became, in Washington eyes, a hopeless Trump tool. But Rosenstein’s revenge was deft, swift, overwhelming, and (of course) by the book.

    Given the decision of the attorney general to recuse himself from the Russia investigation, it fell under the authority of the deputy attorney general to determine whether a conflict existed—that is, whether the deputy attorney general, because of self-interest, might not be able to act objectively—and if, in his sole discretion, he judged a conflict to exist, to appoint an outside special counsel with wide powers and responsibilities to conduct an investigation and, potentially, a prosecution.

    Karma, in the background quietly putting lead in the boxing gloves.

  5. Victoria @ #199 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 7:29 pm

    Jenauthor

    Trump’s modus operandi is simple.

    repeat a lie long enough, it becomes truth. If you repeat the lies over and over, people start believing it is the truth

    The other aspect is – WHO can ever keep up with his lies and foulness.

    After a while you just have to let it all just wash over you. Yuk.

    Its down to US Voters to sort this, starting in November with the mid terms.

    Mueller maybe further down the track.

  6. Ven @ #190 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 7:05 pm

    30+@5:44pm, c@tmomma and other.
    I do not understand one thing about MT. He always goes for long campaigns as if he a great campaigner. Take for example,2016 fed elections or these by-elections. I actually read an article by Murphyroo, where MT normally finished his campaign day in 2016 fed elections by 3:00 pm. That is not the mark of a great campaigner.
    In the article posted by 30+, Bishop attended a expensive campaign lunch for GD.

    I think Turnbull believes that long campaigns drain Labor’s coffers, expose Bill Shorten to the voters for long periods which he thinks is a negative for Labor, and allow the Liberal Party to use their position as holders of government to roll out a carefully-orchestrated series of stunts, er, announcements.

  7. “repeat a lie long enough, it becomes truth. If you repeat the lies over and over, people start believing it is the truth”

    That was also Tony Abbott’s MO as well. It seems to work. In fact, it is standard operating procedure for right wing politicians with the support of powerful allies in the media and business.

  8. Victoria

    repeat a lie long enough, it becomes truth. If you repeat the lies over and over, people start believing it is the truth

    The Chequers news conference was great, you could feel the undercurrent of mirth from the reporters.. Helsinki should be a dooser.
    Can’t imagine the press putting up with anything.. unless all questions come from Fox & Breitart

  9. C@tmomma

    Given how much Turnbull had to tip into the kitty last time I would think the Libs would go for short and sweet.

  10. Should have added this bit to #207 above –

    On May 17, twelve days after FBI director Comey was fired, without consulting the White House or the attorney general, Rosenstein appointed former FBI director Robert Mueller to oversee the investigation of Trump’s, his campaign’s, and his staff’s ties to Russia.

    If Michael Flynn had recently become the most powerful man in Washington for what he might reveal about the president, now Mueller arguably assumed that position because he had the power to make Flynn, and all other assorted Trump cronies and flunkies, squeal.

    Rosenstein, of course, perhaps with some satisfaction, understood that he had delivered what could be a mortal blow to the Trump presidency.

    Bannon, shaking his head in wonder about Trump, commented drily: “He doesn’t necessarily see what’s coming.”

  11. The other aspect is – WHO can ever keep up with his lies and foulness.

    The Washington Post has kept a pretty good record. Except you’ll have to wait for phoenixRed to link to it as I can never find the latest iteration.

  12. http://thehill.com/homenews/media/396951-trump-and-putin-to-hold-joint-press-conference

    “President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a joint press conference on Monday following their one-on-one meeting in Helsinki, the Finish government said Friday.

    The White House announced late last month that Putin and Trump would be meeting on July 16 as the president seeks to improve relations with Moscow, but this is the first confirmation that the two will address the media together.”

    Can see this being cancelled….

  13. 30+ bad Newspolls

    Right click on image ,Copy and paste the image address but make sure it is an https rather than just http . http mostly does not show. Also check that it ends in a normal image format .png .jpg etc.

  14. Sceptic

    The ball is in Trump’s Court. Is he loyal to the country he has given an oath to protect, or does he continue to do the bidding of the Kremlin?

  15. In a nutshell…

    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    ·
    13h
    Ask yourself this simple question.

    Q: Why did Mueller just go to the trouble of indictin’ 12 Russian intelligence officers that will never be extradited?

    A: Cause there’s a whole boat-load of indictments comin’ for those that conspired with ’em.

  16. Dave

    No doubt Trump has previously tried, and will again attempt to be rid of Rosenstein and Mueller.
    Won’t make a jot of difference. Justice is coming for him and his co conspirators.

  17. “President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a joint press conference on Monday following their one-on-one meeting in Helsinki, the Finish government said Friday.

    I wonder if they’ll be holding hands?

  18. dave @ #223 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 6:33 pm

    Vic – I’d reckon trump will sack him if he ever can and get away with it.

    My view too.

    What’s worrying is this trashing of institutions like the DoJ and FBI began with Trump, and yet his Republican colleagues who previously claimed to be law and order establishment types under President Obama, locked and loaded behind Trump’s conspiratorial batshit crazy rhetoric against the agencies he is sworn to uphold. To the extent we saw the questioning of FBI officer Strzok the other day. WTF?

  19. It would also mean party members in both Jagajaga and Macnamara, who have not voted in preselections since the 1990s, would again miss out on open ballots to choose their candidates.

    One senior figure from the party’s right said it might be a price worth paying for internal stability.

    “People would be unhappy if the preselections were called in from the point of view of local democracy,” the source said. “But they would accept it, for the sake of peace.”

    Have preselections in the ALP gone the way of the dodo.

  20. Fess

    The trashing of institutions is a deliberate ploy to undermine trust in them.
    Fox News together with Trump’s enablers in the GOP are aiding and abetting. Disgusting to say the least

  21. poroti @ #204 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 7:40 pm

    Kissinger has met with Trump several times. Could this be what is playing out ?

    45 years ago, Kissinger envisioned a ‘pivot’ to Russia. Will Trump make it happen?

    On Feb. 14, 1972, President Richard Nixon and his national security adviser Henry Kissinger met to discuss Nixon’s upcoming trip to China. Kissinger, who had already taken his secret trip to China to begin Nixon’s historic opening to Beijing, expressed the view that compared with the Russians, the Chinese were “just as dangerous. In fact, they’re more dangerous over a historical period.”

    Kissinger then observed that “in 20 years your successor, if he’s as wise as you, will wind up leaning towards the Russians against the Chinese.” He argued that the United States, as it sought to profit from the enmity between Moscow and Beijing, needed “to play this balance-of-power game totally unemotionally. Right now, we need the Chinese to correct the Russians and to discipline the Russians.” But in the future, it would be the other way around.

    Could it be that, almost 45 years after Nixon’s breakthrough with China, the United States’ 45th president will be taking Kissinger’s advice? President Obama tried to make a “pivot” to Asia the capstone of his foreign policy. Will Donald Trump make a “pivot” toward Moscow, and away from Beijing, a capstone of his?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2016/12/14/45-years-ago-kissinger-envisioned-a-pivot-to-russia-will-trump-make-it-happen/?noredirect=on

    Poroti

    Yes I think so. It will not work

    As i said A day or so ago I posted a list of three options which faced USA in dealing with the other two major powers. It gave poor old prog Higgins a bit of a brain overload and accused me of DTTsplaining”” – – I think that is another term for providing information and analysis that is a bit too complex for the prof.)

    Anyway given that anyone who gives it a moments thought will understand that militarily there are now three very strong powers USA, Russia and China, with a series of middle range power that may or may not provide support. The Kissinger doctrine was clear – never let China and Russia join together because that would be dangerous for the USA.

    OK so far this is not controversial (except maybe for odd ball denialists). I identified THREE approaches.I cannot really see many others but happy for others to suggest them.

    1. USA braves it out and decides to take on both Russia and China. To do this it is first necessary to weaken them by stripping away allies and destroying economies

    2.USA befriends either Russia or China with the long term aim of weakening one of them sufficiently to enable them the defang it. They could then move on the defang the other when the time was right.

    3. USA accepts that it is only one of three or eventually more “great powers”and withdraws to its own borders.backing out of its world policeman role. Emphasis would obviously be of Defence rather than Offence.

    I suspect that it is now a bit too late to heed Kissinger’s advice (it may always have been). I suspect that the ONLY time when it might have been possible for the USA to preserve its world dominance was in the GWB era when Russia was very weak and China while ramping up was also much weaker than the USA. I suspect in 100 years historians examining all this stuff will identify the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq and the wrong turns for the USA. They should have gone after China.

    By the way I am not supporting this position on moral grounds but identifying it as the obvious strategic move.

    My big fear is that the military types and the rest of the elites”just will not accept that USA cannot regain its world dominance that it has in the 1990s and indeed have had since 1945.”

  22. Vic:

    The trashing of institutions began with Trump but has become mainstream among Republicans and Trump’s enablers.

    This is not good. In a two party system you can’t expect good outcomes at a governing level when one of those parties is batshit crazy and mired in ideological conspiracies.

  23. Confessions @ #235 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 9:14 pm

    Vic:

    The trashing of institutions began with Trump but has become mainstream among Republicans and Trump’s enablers.

    This is not good. In a two party system you can’t expect good outcomes at a governing level when one of those parties is batshit crazy and mired in ideological conspiracies.

    Speaking of which:

    House conservatives are preparing a new push to oust Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, according to three conservative Capitol Hill sources — putting the finishing touches on an impeachment filing even as Rosenstein announced the indictment of 12 Russian intelligence officers for interfering in the 2016 election.

    House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows, in fact, had the impeachment document on the floor of the House at the very moment that Rosenstein spoke to reporters and TV cameras Friday.

    Conservative GOP lawmakers have been plotting to remove Rosenstein for weeks, accusing him of slow-walking their probe of FBI agents they’ve accused of bias against President Donald Trump.

    Democrats contend Republicans’ fixation on Rosenstein is really an effort to undermine special counsel Robert Mueller, who reports to Rosenstein and has been making inroads in his investigation of the Russian election interference plot. Mueller’s probe has entangled members of Trump’s inner circle and Trump has increasingly assailed it as a politically motivated “witch hunt” as it’s presented greater danger to him and his allies.

    Conservative sources say they could file the impeachment document as soon as Monday, as Meadows and Freedom Caucus founder Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) look to build Republican support in the House.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/13/house-republicans-rod-rosenstein-impeachment-719816

    They are seemingly intent on establishing a lawless State.

  24. The Catholic Education Fix will be formalized next week, I presume. Malcolm will then meet with their combined holinesses and stitch up a deal involving largesse worth how much? Hundreds of millions? Or billions.

  25. “The Right have the numbers in Caucus. He’s got no chance.”

    Bill has the party membership these days as well.

    Albo for leader is just a LNP-CPG leadershit distraction. A variation on #killbill.

  26. Maggie Haberman
    ‏Verified account @maggieNYT
    14h14 hours ago

    “The nation’s top intelligence officer said on Friday that the persistent danger of Russian cyberattacks today was akin to the warnings the United States had of stepped-up terror threats ahead of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.”

  27. Before I call it a night…

    (A candidate for Congress asked Russian hackers to provide documents on their campaign’s opponent before the 2016 US election, a charging document says)

    This tweet from Donald Trump tells me this is the guy. You know it makes sense.

    Donald J. Trump
    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    ·
    Jul 13
    Congressman Matt Gaetz of Florida is one of the finest and most talented people in Congress. Strong on Crime, the Border, Illegal Immigration, the 2nd Amendment, our great Military & Vets, Matt worked tirelessly on helping to get our Massive Tax Cuts. He has my Full Endorsement!

  28. I’m not a tennis fan anymore but having to watch the crap of GWS v Richmond coach pressers instead of Joko v Rafa in a Wimbledon semi is a fucking disgrace. Channel 7 should hang their heads in shame.

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