We are having one of the poll-free weeks that have occasionally bedevilled us since Essential Research moved from weekly to fortnightly, with Newspoll having one of its occasional three-week gaps so its next poll coincides with the resumption of parliament. So here’s some random bits of electoral news:
• A polling nugget I forgot to relate a fortnight ago: according to a report by Nick Butterly of The West Australian, a Labor internal poll recorded a neck-and-neck result in the Perth seat of Stirling, which Michael Keenan holds for the Liberals by a margin of 6.1%. After excluding the 10.8% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 40.2% (49.5% in 2016), Labor 37.6% (32.2%), Greens 9.0% (11.7%) and One Nation 5.3%. The poll was conducted by Community Engagement from a large sample of 1735.
• Gareth Parker in the Sunday Times reports that Matt O’Sullivan, who ran unsuccessfully in the lower house seat of Burt at the 2016 election, has narrowly won preselection for the third position on the Liberals’ Western Australian Senate ticket, behind incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman. O’Sullivan emerged with 56 votes to 54 for Trish Botha, co-founder with her husband of an evangelical church in Perth’s northern suburbs. The closeness of the result surprised party observers, especially given Christian conservative numbers man Nick Goiran backed O’Sullivan. As Gareth Parker noted in his weekly column, Botha appears to have attracted support from “non God-botherers” opposed to Goiran’s alliance with Mathias Cormann and Peter Collier, who may not have been aware of the messianic language employed by Botha’s church.
• Katy Gallagher has announced she will seek preselection to recover the Australian Capital Territory Senate seat from which she was disqualified last month over Section 44 complications, after speculation she might instead seek the territory’s newly created third lower house seat. However, it appears she will face opposition from the newly anointed successor to her Senate seat, David Smith, former local director of Professionals Australia.
• As for the lower house situation in the Australian Capital Territory, Andrew Leigh will remain in Fenner and Gai Brodtmann will go from Canberra to the nominally new seat of Bean, leaving a vacancy available in Canberra. Smith appears set to run if he loses the Senate preselection to Gallagher; Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports he will be opposed by Kel Watt, a lobbyist who has lately made a name for himself campaigning against the territory Labor government’s ban on greyhound racing. Other potential starters include John Falzon, chief executive of the St Vincent de Paul Society; Jacob Ingram, a staffer to Chief Minister Andrew Barr; and Jacob White, a staffer to Andrew Leigh.
• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has launched his own website of local and international election and polling news.
Always gives me a laugh.
The Greens voted down Malaysia knowing that it was likely to result in the reopening of Manus and Nauru, something they could not stop.
They rarely get the opportunity to be relevant and make a difference, in this case they f@#$ed it up royally!!!
We are experiencing he driest autumn conditions here in well over a century.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2018-06-13/dry-start-to-season-sees-grain-crops-scaled-back/9853916?WT.ac=localnews_greatsouthern
Global warming? What global warming?
Scout
Labor votes with the LNP too.
Latest is the support for the income tax cuts for the lowest incomes.
That does not make Labor responsible for the Corporate Tax cuts.
Boom
I am defending facts not the Greens there is a difference.
guytaur @ #1596 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 12:59 pm
There is no need to debate this, it’s not a policy issue.
The Potato’s actions are already being attacked, Shorten made references to it on Q&A.
The Potato’s actions come down to how the policy is implemented and Labor has already made loud noises about their opposition to some of these decisions.
To paraphrase Shorten; Labor doesn’t believe you need to be an arsehole to the detainees and feels more could have and can be done in finding resettlement options, accept the NZ offer for starters.
To whoever said we should have ‘epidemic planning’.
I was on the NSW epidemic and pandemic planning committee.. We have incredible plans in place and allocated resources; from vaccine stockpiles, temporary hospital plans, rules for clearing out jails and institutions right through to requisitioning supermarket refrigerator trucks as temporary morgues and fast burial plans for a quarter of the population… More of that ‘stuff’ our taxes pay for!
Barney
Thats Mr Shorten winning the debate with an excellent point.
More please
For the life of me I cant see why you can’t accept that a ‘consequence’ of a joint enterprise leaves both parties to the joint enterprise responsible for that consequnce, Guytaur. Both the LNP and the Greens needed the numbers of each other and they both used each other’s numbers to down Labor’s legislation in the senate. They are equally responsible for the consequence of that vote. This is basic logic.
No Guytaur, it is good to see you acknowledge the Greens voted with the LNP though. The tax cuts for corporates has not yet been voted on.
You are using a LNP / trump tactic of look over there.
The thing that annoys me is that Greens constantly say they dont play politics – they do
Well. I’m not going to argue with you.
I’m crazy already.
I will say this again and again and again and again.
Malaysia was a terrible idea and the Greens saved Labor from carrying forever an appalling mistake. The reality was that there was no pub;lic support in Malaysia. probably we “supported” aka bribed some people in Malaysia to accept the deal but how long it would have held in anyone’s guess. The problem with Malaysia had nothing to do with the Greens or Labor or even bloody Abbott. The problem was MALAYSIA. If Malaysia had been prepared to sign an agreement with the Australian government then probably the high court would have ruled in favour of the deal. There would have been no particular problem. i would have supported it and possibly even the Greens would have.
However no one in Malaysia was prepared to sign publicly on the dotted line. Only a fool of a government would accept such a deal. Not worth the paper it was NOT written on.
The fact that the final outcome was the hideous Naru and Manus Is prisons is neither here nor there. When it was developed they were not on the agenda. Stopping the Malaysia deal was right at th time, although hind sight may mean that even the risk of possible flogging, sold into slavery (prostitution) or refoulment was better than imprisonment in hell.
guytaur @ #1607 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 1:12 pm
Yes and the debate is in public, there is no need or place for this debate at Labor’s Conference at this time.
Scout
If you are correct about Greens claims which I very much doubt. I don’t remember Bob Brown ever saying he doesn’t play politics. Just that he doesn’t play the same way as the LNP and Labor.
I have always seen the Lib Lab same same as political game playing.
Thats my opinion.
I have never however seen a Greens politician say they don’t play politics. If that was true they would not be politicians.
This is how bad the myth making is getting about the Greens
@Guy –
“Scout
Labor votes with the LNP too.
Latest is the support for the income tax cuts for the lowest incomes.
That does not make Labor responsible for the Corporate Tax cuts.”
More sophistry. If Labor voted for the corporate cuts (even if it was for tactical reasons), then they ARE responsible for the consequences of that vote. Just like they will be if they decide to vote for the whole package of individual tax cuts (including the 2nd and 3rd phases), even if they promise to amend or repeal the parts they don’t like when in Government. There may in fact be valid reasons to adopt such a tactic, but make no mistake Labor is responsible for the consequences of its vote.
daretotread. @ #1611 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 1:14 pm
You’ve obviously been to Malaysia?
lizzie @ #1599 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 4:02 pm
Guytaur has a dilemma. He really wants to vote Labor, but only if they implement Greens policies.
@ Barney – lols
AE
The Greens are not responsible for the LNP Asylum Seeker detention. Thats where your argument falls down.
The Greens never voted for off shore detention. They voted against it.
You know as well as I do if the Greens were the government there would be no Manus and Nauru.
I have even refrained fro mentioning Rudd forming the agreement with PNG which reopened Manus.
Using executive power to recreate the off shore detention centre. We now know illegally accepted by the PNG government.
This is what I mean. I don’t blame Rudd for the LNP policies. I don’t blame the Greens either.
I blame the people who are responsible the LNP
https://www.law.berkeley.edu/article/the-real-scoop-on-genetically-engineered-foods/
“..we had buy in to the Vietnam War and so had to take some responsibility for the consequences.”
and of course we have no responsibility for refugees from Iraq and Syria or Afghanistan?
indefinite detention and “resettlement” in impoverished failed nation states is ethically and legally (international law) wrong.
They should be processed asap and resettled here on in other countries that are signatories of the refugee convention. Refugees could also be encouraged to return to their countries once humanitarian crises are over.
The conflation of the few thousand refugees coming by boat with xenophobic fears about migration (and temporary student migrants and tourist) causing ‘overcrowding’ (i.e. lack of infrastructure investment) in Sydney, and other cities is a classic case of scapegoating. It is horrible that this works so well politically, but it is more terrible that one of our major mainstream parties has been so enthusiastic in using it for the past 20 years and the other party is too scared to show moral leadership. They are all who support them on this issue are racist c@#ts and/or opportunistic c@#ts. take your pick . we are the richest and luckiest people in history, and our history is that refugees make great citizens. home grown white australia supporters no so much.
It is not myth making it is reality, the greens love to blame Labor but do not accept any sort of critical analysis.
I detest what Dutton, Abetz etc push forward the division created by the Greens gives them the opportunity to do so
The umpies are looking ominous in the Tiges v Cats game.
The Gs are bitter and twisted because they’re sliding into irrelevance. Labor just refuse to be drawn into their fairy stories….they are Democrats in the making.
On asylum seekers, the Gs and the LNP are the opposite sides of the same bent coin.
This was 3 hours ago. No news of a final count yet that I can find.
One assumes the electronic ballots should be easier and quicker to count than the paper ones.
jeffemu @ #1553 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 2:28 pm
This epitomises the misconceptions about tax write-offs or deductions on PB.
Lets say he spends $1,000,000 and his rate of tax is 30% (current corporate rate).
Then he may not pay any tax on that $1,000,000, but he has still spent $1,000,000 and no longer has it.
Had he not spent that $1,000,000, he would have paid tax on it at 30% and still had $700,000.
So how has he benefited?
He hasn’t, but the ATO is $300,000 worse off and he is $700,000 worse off.
$700,000 has gone to suppliers and some of that will end up in tax.
I get to drive past 2 Palmer billboards just on my way to work in Brisbane so I’m assuming there must be lots more out there.
sf
‘a few thousand refugees’
50,000 was it not?
Uncontrolled mass crossing of borders was used as the ultimate weapon to push the UK out of the EU, has gifted an extreme right wing party Government in Italy, threatens to do the same in France and will do so at the next election if Macron falters, keeps a swag of right wing governments with fascist tendencies in government in mittel Europa, and is about to cost Merkel her job in Germany.
I understand that the Greens don’t do reality but your open slather policies would gift Dutton the job of Prime Minister.
“However no one in Malaysia was prepared to sign publicly on the dotted line. Only a fool of a government would accept such a deal. Not worth the paper it was NOT written on.”
___________________________________
They were prepared to sign on the dotted line and DID sign on the dotted line. Facts are such pesky things, aren’t they!
FFS Guytaur! The Greens are responsible for the consequnces of THEIR actions. They had actual real power over this particular issue. They didn’t use it wisely. More folk died at sea as a consequence of their vote. Accordinly to your ‘logic’ the lookout and get away driver would not be resonsible for an armed robbery becaue neither physically took the money off the bank teller!
The outcome of the Senate vote is a matter of public record. The 10 Green ‘nay’ votes were decisive for the defeat of the legislation. They are jointly responsible for that with every other nah voter. It matters not what their respective motivations or roles in that exercise was. The nay voters are equally responsble for the consequnces of the vote. You can’t crab walk the Greens away from those facts.
briefly @ #1515 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 1:23 pm
I’ve continued to lurk. Just doing other things!
Torchbearer @ #1604 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 4:12 pm
Torchbearer
Very good. Actually I am delighted to hear that such detail is in place – especially the temporary morgues since ghastly though it is it is the job of planners to make such provisions.
My comment is good on you.
Did you read the article that prompted it. It was from the Atlantic which is a respectable if conservative publication? It was a bit alarmist but it did not paint a very good picture of US preparedness or indeed vaccine supply.
I like to think that our public hospital system is rather better than in the US so that many of the problems in the article would not really apply here – we do not depend on a lot of private hospital boards but rather on a few state governments for decisions. This is good.
Now being a bit old fashioned I rather liked the old quarantine hospitals, but they are gone and I hope what we have replaced them with will do the job effectively.
These are some genuine questions – ie I am asking you and hope that they are well addressed?
In the case of some highly contagious disease where contact with waste is a problem – Ebola obviously but also smallpox and maybe others, have we got the waste disposal capacity to mange it?
What about OHS for the waste handlers. Ditto for cleaning staff and I guess also medical staff. Are Unions involved in the planning?
What do we do if there is a shortage of vaccines or antibiotics due to supply chain problems – essentially from OS ie out of our control?
What do we do if is is a multi species issue eg bubonic plague or what MIGHT have happened in the Hendra outbreak? Do we have a massive bat/horse/dog/cat cull? This is a bit like what did happen in Qld – horses obviously taking the brunt but the odd dog and cat were also destroyed?
Are all states equally well prepared?
Won’t be surprised if Swan wins presidency of ALP. I think Butler’s public shit stirring has hurt his chances. The base wants the party to stick to the message and win the next election and few people really give a shit about internal fights Butler was trying to enflame.
Thanks Torchbearer. I am on a LHD disaster committee and I am impressedby the amount of planning and resources that NSW Health has in place. Of course we won’t know its effectiveness until an incident happens but the effective response to last year’s flu, when we had 10x the usual number of cases indicates that we are in a good space.
DTT’s basic schtick is that she is the only one who appreciates the danger of epidemics and all clinicians and the ministry are fools with no plans in place. To imply that we don’t have a stockpile is typical of her ignorance
Disaster management must keep a low profile to ensure the chicken littles of the world don’t muddy the waters.
Andrew Earlwood
FFS You can’t crab walk away from the fact Rudd signed the agreement with the PNG government that set up Manus that the LNP is using now.
Get it. The Greens are NOT doing indefinite detention. In fact the Greens from what I have seen have argued against detention at all.
I don’t blame them for indefinite detention. I don’t blame Labor for it either.
Your BS Spinning does not change the fact that indefinite detention and the plight the Refugees are in right now are all of the LNP’s doing.
NOT THE GREENS NOT LABOR.
Thats the facts.
You see what I mean
DTT
“However no one in Malaysia was prepared to sign publicly on the dotted line.”
Not so. The Malaysian government signed a MOU about the deal (swap 800 refugees here for 4,000 in Malaysia).
The issue for the HC was that Malaysia had no domestic law guaranteeing the protection of the 800 to be sent, nor were they a party to relevant international law.
When the Gillard government then tried to alter (s186 I think) of the Migration Act to counter the HC decision (the normal statutory practice when the HC is “offended”), the Abbotteers and the Greens combined to block the legislation.
It is hard to imagine that Malaysia would have been more harmful to the refugees than Manus and Nauru turned out to be, nor that the Malaysian government would have been crueller than Dutton.
Labor’s policy turned out to be better than what transpired when the Greens balance-of-power vote blocked it.
TPOF @ #1634 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 4:30 pm
I wish you wouldn’t lurk so much. We need wise heads. 🙂
OC
I feel a touch of the old Ebola coming on.
No BW, apparently its smallpox now.
Oakeshott Country @ #1633 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 4:32 pm
Oakshott
Geez you are offensive. I did not say that or imply it but I did question complacency. The fact that you made that comment convinces me I am right. How bloody dare you react in such a pathetic way to valid questioning. Arrogant god doctor you may be but that does not mean you are the fountain of all knowledge.
NOTHING you or anyone wrote during the Ebola epidemic gave me any confidence in your having a clue. By contrast Torchbearer demonstrated an EXCELLENT grasp of reality. I was genuinely impressed.
If you want me to treat you with respect, behave with respect to others.
She does the same with education. Only she knows what it’s like in contemporary classrooms and what should be taught to kids. Not only ignorance but extreme arrogance as well.
I am with you there sister
Confessions @ #1643 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 1:40 pm
You can add Countries to the list!!! 🙂
dtt
It has been demonstrated to you countless times that Malaysia did sign on the dotted line.
What killed the deal was that the legislation currently in place only allowed such deals to be made with UNHCR signatories.
The UNHCR commented at the time that ALL refugees in Malaysia, not just the ones targetted, were experiencing better treatment as a result of the deal.
lizzie @ #1599 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 4:02 pm
And really squeals if labelled “Greentaur”
I for one am grateful DTT stays away from energy systems.
When we were all going to be taken out by avian flu, a board member at the local hospital asked what our contingency plans were. Basically, the hospital had plans to cover the most extreme emergencies one could imagine – for example, they had planned for scenarios where the three hospitals we covered were isolated by flood waters and over half the staff were stricken. These plans linked in with plans at a regional and State level.
I can remember Shire staff being seconded to do similar planning at a regional level – for example, game planning scenarios such as a major dam failure.