Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor roars back in the latest Essential poll, despite a slump in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll sharply reverses a recent trend away from Labor, who are back to leading 54-46 on two-party preferred after their lead fell to 51-49 in the previous poll. This is apparently driven by a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote, but as usual we will have to wait until later today for the full numbers. However, it’s a curiously different story on leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull gains two on approval since last month to reach 42% while remaining steady on 42% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is down four to 33% and up five to 46%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is unchanged, shifting from 40-26 to 41-27. Like ReachTEL and unlike Newspoll, Essential has posed a straightforward question on company tax cuts that finds approval and disapproval tied on 37%. The poll also finds 68% support for an increase in Newstart.

UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition primary vote crashes from 40% to 36%, Labor’s rises one to 37%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are steady on 8%.

UPDATE 2: Further details from those ReachTEL polls for Sky News, which were conducted last Wednesday. In the national poll, after allocating results from a forced response follow-up for the 5.1% undecided, the primary votes were Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.3%, Greens 10.7%, One Nation 9.3% and others 8.2%, translating into a 52-48 lead for Labor after respondent-allocated preferences favoured them by 54.8-45.2. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question was almost exactly unchanged at 54.6-45.4 (54.5-45.5 last month); his very good plus good rating went from 29.9% to 30.8%, and his poor plus very poor from 32.6% to 37.0%. Bill Shorten went from 28.4% to 27.7% on good plus very good, and from 35.5% to 39.9% on poor plus very poor.

In the poll for the Braddon by-election, after allocating the forced follow-up results from the 5.9% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 48.2%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 6.6%, independents 7.2%, others 3.5%, resulting in a 54-46 Liberal lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. In Longman, with the 7.1% initially undecided likewise allocated, the results are Liberal National Party 40.4%, Labor 37.3%, independents 5.5%, Greens 2.7% and others 14.1% (confirming there was no specific option for One Nation), resulting in an LNP lead of 52-48. Respondents for these polls were asked how they would vote “if a by-election in the federal electorate of X were to be held today”. The by-election polls were conducted last Wednesday, from samples of 824 in Braddon and 810 in Longman; the national poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 2523.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,057 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Paul bongiorno in the Saturday newspaper dealt with Joyce affair, PHONey problems and income tax cuts. I think doyley posted that ALP can vote for the whole income tax package in senate and say that tbey will repeal the 2 and 3 stages when they come to power. Bongiorno discusses the danger of that approach. Infact one of the PB posters indicated that he/she will be voting against ALP if they take that approach. I also tend to agree that ALP approach is replete with danger. I think LNP has incorporated that tax measure to wedge ALP.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2018/06/09/the-latest-barnaby-joyce-fallout/15284664006339

  2. Yes, cattle

    They rode into town on their horses and under their Beetrooter hats

    When a Medical Benefit Fund is advertising that for the last 2 years their premiums have risen less than anyone else’s what exactly does that tell you?

  3. Steve777 says:
    Saturday, June 9, 2018 at 1:08 pm
    I have to say I find the brumby business a little puzzling. No one is making any money from them and opportunities to do so seem limited.

    They are bad for the natural environment. Maybe that’s seen by right wingers as a reason to like them. Surveys have shown that politically conservative shoppers eschew brands that are “good for the environment”, whether they are or not. Then I suppose if the brumbies degrade the natural environment sufficiently then it could be opened up for mining, grazing, oil drilling, tourist development or skiing (no problem – warming is socialist myth).

    Or maybe it’s because the brumbies are a legacy of settler Australia, so are superior to the natural environment.

    A little cynical, perhaps, but spot on. Onya!

  4. Pica says: Saturday, June 9, 2018 at 3:13 pm

    “You wouldn’t believe me if I told you what it is.”

    Oh, do tell…..I don’t care if I’m incredulous, I just want to know……

    *************************************************************

    There are lots of ‘allegations’ of the nature of the Russian Kompromat that ‘allegedly’ exists – I won’t list all the various speculations what is supposedly in existence about Trump – check out a few twitter feeds to see all …

    However, I trust ex- NSA , John Schindler and his past/present connections and it was he who said ‘we would not believe it even if he told us’ – and he said once before ‘I hope I never ever see it again’

    and he added today :

    John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    Oh, Donnie’s plenty ashamed of this.

    BIGLY

    So, IF he is to be believed, it must be something truly bad …..

  5. Lung cancer killed my uncle who was a very heavy smoker from a relatively early age.

    Thing that shocked the family though was he never fought the diagnosis. He continued to smoke and refused the surgery he was told could cut out the tumour. I can’t remember if he took drugs or had chemo or anything, but he basically just gave up and chose to let the cancer take hold and win.

  6. phoenixRed:

    Did you catch Real Time? Today’s ep was a bit too shouty for my liking, with two Republicans in particular arguing between themselves about immigration. Thought Bill should’ve shut that down as they were taking over the show.

  8. poroti:

    From the article:

    Tomago chief executive Matt Howell said Australia was at a crisis point with its energy system because it was losing baseload generation needed for heavy industry.

    “This is a direct result of renewable energy hollowing out the baseload generation in this country,” Mr Howell said.

    Since the closure of the Northern and Hazelwood coal plants only new wind and solar capacity had been built, but it was not suitable for heavy industry.

    How come WA doesn’t have these problems? We’ve had plenty of renewable energy projects built here and we don’t suffer outages the likes you hear of over east.

  9. Confessions says: Saturday, June 9, 2018 at 4:06 pm

    phoenixRed:

    Did you catch Real Time? Today’s ep was a bit too shouty for my liking, with two Republicans in particular arguing between themselves about immigration. Thought Bill should’ve shut that down as they were taking over the show.

    *********************************************

    Hi Confessions – due to family arriving have only had time to watch Bill’s intro – very funny with lots of good lines

    I am really interested in Trumps poor attitudes to loyal countries that have stood by the US – and Trumps ‘sucking up’ to Putin/G7 and am starting to believe that Russia has the* goods * on Trump ……

    I often think – is it me or what ????? – but I have these thoughts about Trump, Hanson, Turnbull, Abbott, Dutton, Cash etc etc ……. and why do I dislike them so much while others glorify them ????? – is it me or them ????

  10. phoenixRed:

    The panel talked about Trump’s wanting to rule for life, and discussed some ways this could happen. It sounded plausible to me, but when you watch it I’d be interested in your thoughts. Esp the likelihood of him delaying the next presidential election on spurious, cooked up grounds that have some claim to legitimacy.

  13. So the coal fired power stations breaking down are the fault of renewables.

    There’s an answer for that. Create a multi billion dollar taxpayer funded program to give people who hate renewables a mini coal fired power station in their own backyard!

    Alibaba can help you out with just the right product for your renewables hating family.
    https://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?fsb=y&IndexArea=product_en&CatId=&SearchText=coal-fired+generator” rel=”nofollow

  14. Confessions says: Saturday, June 9, 2018 at 4:26 pm

    phoenixRed:

    The panel talked about Trump’s wanting to rule for life, and discussed some ways this could happen. It sounded plausible to me, but when you watch it I’d be interested in your thoughts. Esp the likelihood of him delaying the next presidential election on spurious, cooked up grounds that have some claim to legitimacy.

    ******************************************************

    I wake up every morning and switch on the 6 am news and hope to hear that Robert Mueller has had a big bombing run of the Trump Crime Family & Associates – but so far I remain disappointed that there is not enough GOP ‘good men’ to say ENOUGH !!!!

    America to me – as a US green card carrier – is a total enigma – it can be the cause of great good for peace and prosperity but it can also seemingly slip into what its enemies call “the Great Satan” – I never quite know what side I am on. I see it virtues but also admit its total disrespect of others in this world and the hurt and damage its policies can sometimes cause. Trump is a horrific symptom of an Empire in total decline as were the Roman , the 3rd Reich or the red map of the British Empire …… and eventually China will be the worlds # 1 SuperPower ( hopefully long after I am dead and buried )

  16. Trump is a horrific symptom of an Empire in total decline

    Another reminder from today’s show. Ten years ago in the 2007 election campaign, the Tea Party was just a small grassroots movement, supposedly based around the concept that people were ‘taxed enough already’, but quickly became a movement that represents white, low educated people living outside cities.

    Today that movement owns the Republican party and has a sizeable number of sitting Congress members. The Republican base are no longer people with an interest in the economy, their main gripe today is immigration and white people resuming their ‘rightful’ place in society as top of the heap, with their jackboot on the throats of cultural minorities. The Democrats are largely silent, save for Adam Schiff. They should be talking about national security given Trump is such a risk to it, colluding with enemies, his border security policies and so on, as well as treason and Republican complicity on that issue.

  17. Bushfire Bill

    I too am pleased for you.

    While hypnotism worked for me (80 a day to nothing in one day) anything that reduces the intake and damage is good.

    As another poster has said today on another matter.

    Onya ❗
    👍 🐘🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟

  18. BB, thanks for your article on vaping. It reminds me of Red Symons. He was a smoker and couldn’t give up. He asked his doctor if he would get lung cancer. Not necessarily, but you are more likely to get it smoking. However, you will get emphysema. That was enough for red to use patches. Which he has done ever since.

    Vaping is no doubt a better option than smoking , but from what I have read nicotine has detrimental effects to the body, but if you can minimise harm by vaping the nicotine instead of smoking it, which you obviously have, good on you.

    As for making vaping illegal, I am all for doing so because of the damage nicotine can do, EXCEPT in cases like yours where it reduces harm. I’ve got no idea how this can be achieved or managed.

  20. Confessions says: Saturday, June 9, 2018 at 5:02 pm

    The Democrats are largely silent, save for Adam Schiff. They should be talking about national security given Trump is such a risk to it, colluding with enemies, his border security policies and so on, as well as treason and Republican complicity on that issue.

    *************************************************

    Exactly Confessions – America is STILL a country of ‘The Blue And The Grey’ – the have and the havenots – that will tear itself apart if Trump is *removed* …..

    The Democrats need to find a PERSON(S) and POLICIES that will appeal to WIDER America to bring the American populace together as a nation ….. and to vote overwhelmingly as a rejection of the Trump policy of DIVIDE and CONQUER !!!! Its up to them …..

  21. zoomster @ #1878 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 2:35 pm

    lizzie/BK

    It’s all a tentative diagnosis atm (mainly based on ‘the most severe pain I’ve ever felt, worse than childbirth..” “Ah, kidney stones, then.”

    Won’t even be able to book an ultrasound until Tuesday, due to the long weekend.

    Am presently spaced out on endone…

    Yes, sounds just like how I was diagnosed by the Ambos!
    Apparently quite unmistakeable.
    Must say the Ambos were just great. An all female crew and did a great job. I forgave them for having a little laugh as they gave me their diagnosis. 😉

  22. Given that smoking is legal and most likely always will be, it doesn’t seem to me to make sense to ban vaping, especially if it is less harmful.

    I never took up smoking. When I was at the age where boys started smoking when adults weren’t looking, I was seriously asthmatic and was therefore never tempted. The asthma abated by the end of my teens, but by then I was old enough to know better and, as a student, couldn’t have afforded to smoke or ingest other strange substances even if I’d wanted to.

    But, being overweight most of my adult life in spite of my GP’s advice, I can appreciate how difficult it is to give things up.

  23. Vaping as a way of getting people off of cigarette smoking is fantastic.

    Vaping as a way for the tobacco companies to create a new ‘safe’ way to dispense their ultra-addictive product to sustain their industry into the future … not so much.

    How to finesse the industry to encourage the former and prevent the latter … I certainly have no idea.

    Ultimately (for me) it has to fall into the same harm-minimization aspect that I think should apply to all drugs, so vaping has to be safe, legal, available, regulated. I just hope to hell that vaping never becomes ‘sexy’ for teenagers and we open up the peer pressure/cultural aspects again just because this incarnation of nicotine is not as dangerous as the previous ones.

  24. The Democrats need to find a PERSON(S) and POLICIES that will appeal to WIDER America to bring the American populace

    They need to grow some balls to be honest. You should watch today’s New Rules final segment. Totally agree with Bill on that one.

  25. Ven says:
    Saturday, June 9, 2018 at 3:47 pm
    Paul bongiorno in the Saturday newspaper dealt with Joyce affair, PHONey problems and income tax cuts. I think doyley posted that ALP can vote for the whole income tax package in senate and say that tbey will repeal the 2 and 3 stages when they come to power. Bongiorno discusses the danger of that approach. Infact one of the PB posters indicated that he/she will be voting against ALP if they take that approach. I also tend to agree that ALP approach is replete with danger. I think LNP has incorporated that tax measure to wedge ALP.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2018/06/0

    With our preferential system of voting you really only have two choices. Liberal or Labor. So who is going to vote for the Liberals because Labor didn’t vote against their tax package?

  29. Best wishes zoomster. Me too, been there done that. Not much fun.
    Don’t overlook the benefit of 4gm (2 reg tabs x4/day, or 2 panadol osteo x3/day) for baseline analgesia and reducing amount of the heavy stuff.

  30. ItzaDream @ #1928 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 5:46 pm

    Best wishes zoomster. Me too, been there done that. Not much fun.
    Don’t overlook the benefit of 4gm (2 reg tabs x4/day, or 2 panadol osteo x3/day) for baseline analgesia and reducing amount of the heavy stuff.

    I found that the best treatment of all was Buscopan, an anti-spasmodic.

  32. Greg the lying Hunt saying he won’t sanction legalising vaping because it is a gateway to (legal) cigarette smoking is head explodingly illogical and plain stubbornly stupid. It reduces cigarette damage by some 80%. And he’s the Federal Minister for Health. Not.

    While the USA goes about legalising recreational marajuana.

  34. “Paul bongiorno in the Saturday newspaper dealt with Joyce affair, PHONey problems and income tax cuts. I think doyley posted that ALP can vote for the whole income tax package in senate and say that tbey will repeal the 2 and 3 stages when they come to power. Bongiorno discusses the danger of that approach. Infact one of the PB posters indicated that he/she will be voting against ALP if they take that approach. I also tend to agree that ALP approach is replete with danger. I think LNP has incorporated that tax measure to wedge ALP.”

    I’ve been thinking about this a lot while on holidays.

    In my view Labor should present an alternative tax plan – one that matches the first phase of the LNPs plan, with their own versions of phases 2 and 3, but slightly more modest and skewed towards the bottom 8 socio-economic deciles.

    THEN labor can say to the LNP – if “you”* agree to repeal your tax plan and pass our tax plan IF we win the next general election, we will allow yours to pass through now, so that the small punters can get their tax cut next financial year.

    * Of Course, such a pledge from Truffles and Mesma won’t mean shit, because when the LNP lose they will both retire forthwith. No – Labor must demand that those LNP ministers most likely to occupy liberal leadership positions in opposition must give the pledge personally as well – Dutton, ScoMo, Cormann, Lady Mandible, Porter etc. Even Abbott must give the pledge. Turn this around on the Liberals. Then, when in opposition, they would oppose Labor’s tax plan at their political peril.

    If that sounds too tricky and contrived then OK – I’d be pushing for labor to insist that the Liberals split the bill and oppose the 3rd phase at the very least.
    …

  35. ItzaDream @ #1958 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 3:56 pm

    Greg the lying Hunt saying he won’t sanction legalising vaping because it is a gateway to (legal) cigarette smoking is head explodingly illogical and plain stubbornly stupid. It reduces cigarette damage by some 80%. And he’s the Federal Minister for Health. Not.

    While the USA goes about legalising recreational marajuana.

    I’m of a similar view to Jackol on the subject of vaping. I like that it can get people like BB off smoking cigs, but hate that the industry can use if as a way of pushing more people on their product.

    The harm minimisation framework is definitely the way to go on vaping, and yes, thank goodness kids today don’t regard it as cool.

  36. JOHCHKA FISCHER. ‘The U.S. President Is Destroying the American World Order’

    More on Trump, Putin, EU, ME, and the Bolton – from a thoughtful frank German perspective.

    Fischer: The Federal Republic of Germany was probably the greatest success of American foreign policy. Since 1949, a stable, flourishing democracy has emerged under the patronage of the U.S. After two world wars, we Germans have recognized that we cannot do world politics. It almost destroyed us as a nation, both politically and morally. America was responsible for our protection, and we got used to it. Driving in this slipstream was comfortable and understandable from a historical point of view, but that is now over.

    http://johnmenadue.com/johchka-fischer-the-u-s-president-is-destroying-the-american-world-order/

  37. Cooking

    Queen Pudding (bread and butter pudding base with layer of jam then meringe topping, using apple custard base this time), for Bill Maher tonight cept think he’s gone already, and

    Sicilian Apple Cake, best ever, for tomorrow’s visitors

    #cookinonPB
    #longweekendonPB

  38. ItzaDream @ #1930 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 5:56 pm

    Greg the lying Hunt saying he won’t sanction legalising vaping because it is a gateway to (legal) cigarette smoking is head explodingly illogical and plain stubbornly stupid.

    Yep. Total BS. If you want to use the term ‘gateway’, then vaping from what I’ve read is a gateway OFF the cigs.

  40. Bushfire Bill @ #8315 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 3:19 pm

    Regarding this SMH story on “vaping” (e-cigarettes)…

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fog-of-war-is-vaping-good-for-smokers-or-only-for-big-tobacco-20180607-p4zk1i.html

    … it appears that “the jury is still out” (at least according to some) on the health effects of e-cigarettes.

    I am a vaper. I took it up in a desperate attempt to give up the fags, which I have been on since my late teens.

    I have tried cold-turkey, patches, gum, and yes, hypnotism… the lot. None of it has worked.

    As the price of cigarettes increased I managed to reduce my intake of cancer sticks, but was not able to give them up. I never smoked “three packs” a day, like you hear many did. I was a “one pack a day” person, but even that today can cost around $250 per week. This is REAL money., up to around $14,000 per year (which is a nice holiday in Europe if you backpack it).

    Fags killed my old man, and his father too (from emphysema and heart failure). They probably killed my brother-in-law as well, but we’re not sure (his disease was stomach cancer). They were undoubtedly killing me, and still probably will.

    But since I commenced vaping, more as a dare than as a commitment I have not smoked one cigarette.

    Within a week of taking up vaping, I didn’t even hanker for a fag. The simple psychological pleasure of being able to walk past the cheap(er) cigarettes counter at Coles or Woolies without automatically buying a couple of packs to tide me over is very satisfying. I’d avoided these nicotine magnets for the first week of vaping, because I thought they’d tempt me. But when I finally went into town, there was no problem, no temptation and (most importantly) no regret.

    Vaping works, or at least it did for me.

    At first I consoled myself with the secret thought that nothing had ever worked, and that vaping would be no exception. I came to accept that when the urge to smoke got too much (which I knew it inevitably would), I’d just go up to the local shop and purchase a packet (which I would have to smoke away from home, to avoid breaking Her Indoors’ heart). I saw the TV commercial where the guy who’s given up spends so much time fighting with his wife that she buys him a pack, just to restore peace to the household. In the same commercial, the first time he gets a beer under his belt in the pub with his mates he’s smoking again. But despite the litany of failures on-screen the underlying message of the ad was clear: hardly anyone gives up first time they try. That was me.

    The person who designed that commercial was a genius, because it takes away the shame of failure, and gives you hope.

    I no longer hanker for a fag. I can see others smoking and not want to cross the street and bot a durry off them. The ash trays in the house are clean, and have been so since Day #1. I wouldn’t even know where the old Bic lighters were. Above all, I no longer see myself as a smoker, not even as a recovering smoker. Not smoking, surprisingly, is not a matter of regret to me, but (in my little world at least) a matter for celebration. I don’t see myself as missing out on anything. I haven’t given up anything. I’ve taken up living again.

    Financially, vaping costs me about the same as three cigarettes cost per week, a pitifully, vanishingly small percentage of what I used to spend before. I’ve got my wind back and can now walk fast all day, up and down the beautiful beaches we have here, “like a madman” says Her Indoors.

    What I didn’t predict (but should have) was the weight gain. Since I’ve given up I’ve put on 11 kilos. That’s too much. I enjoy my food so much (you can actually taste it when you stop smoking) that I went back to having second helpings, something I hadn’t done for decades. However, for the last three weeks my weight has stabilized. With the extra exercise I’m planning, I’m hoping for a modest reduction soon. What is fairly clear to me is that it wasn’t the nicotine that kept weight off me by suppressing my appetite. It was the smoke itself, the foul-tasting, cough-inducing, nausea-making delivery mechanism, not the drug itself.

    I used to see smoking as a punctuation to life. Got something to do? Have a fag first while you think about it. Getting a coffee? Time for a cigarette. Smokers and ex-smokers will know exactly what I mean. And don’t talk to me about having a drink or a morning coffee without the requisite stogie. There is as much “habit” to smoking as there is “addiction”.

    But I was wrong about that too. Smoking is not a punctuation to Life. Life becomes a punctuation to smoking. Welcome to the world of fags, where the tail always ends up wagging the dog.

    OK, so I am still addicted to nicotine, even if it is about 2% of the previous cost of smoking the drug. However, because I can measure out my own dose, I’ve been reducing the amount of nicotine I vape every week. In a year I’ll be off it. that’s the plan, anyway.

    In the meantime my health is better in almost every way: I get more exercise, my circulation is improved (my gums and tongue are pink again, not grey), I hardly ever cough, my attitude has improved out of sigh. I have more self-respect. Once I get the weight under control (Her Indoors tries to make me feel good about it by telling me I have my cute bottom back again) it’ll be all plusses.

    I have NOT turned into a nag, or a loud-mouthed evangelistic anti-smoker. In fact I’ve helped two other people take up vaping (there’s a technical and logistical learning curve), and both are still on it (with no fags) despite it being early days for them yet. You could say I try to help others give it up, but I don’t judge them.

    My position now, after several months, is that in my mind’s eye I acknowledge myself as still addicted, but in a much more benign and “acceptable” way than when I was smoking. And much cheaper, too, at about the same cost as my cother addiction -caffeince – per day. If there is no shame in saying “God, I’d kill for a coffee”, then where is the shame in feeling like a toke on your vaping stick to go with it? Plenty of quite respectable people see their own caffeine addiction as something to be even bragged about, not something to be hidden away for secret times. Why shouldn’t vaping be the same? It’s vapour, not smoke. It doesn’t stink the place out, get in your clothes, penetrate the paint on the walls or permeate the furniture. Even Her Indoors says it completely inoffensive (and she’s sensitive to smoke).

    On the dangers of nicotine as a substance in itself there is a range of opinions as to the harm it does. Some say very little harm, some say more than that. But given that I am no longer intaking that toxic, hideously expensive mix of combustion by-products 25 times per day (and hating myself for it), what herm is being done is a lot less than before. A LOT less.

    For those that would seek to ban vaping, I’m convinced there is more than a light dose of wowserism at play. Why would any doctor wish to make getting off the fags, which kill tens of thousands per year, even more difficult, and more complicated than it is now? The medicos want you to see them for a prescription, and then pay $5 per day if you can convince them you’re fair dinkum. It’s not much of a deal compared to $0.50c a day.

    But, according to the article, it’s not all medicos, just mainly ones in Australia. Countries in Europe and the Americas have de-criminalized the DIY sourcing and purchase of nicotine oil. But besides the doubtful doctors, there are some politicians on the prohibition bandwagon, too. I am hoping this has nothing to do with the cigarette companies lobbying them for regulation, so they can dominate the market. One suspects that vaping will be banned in public places (as it is about to be in NSW and Victoria) until it isn’t. And then it will be commercialized by British American Tobacco and Phillip Morris, nice and neat.

    I accept that there is a chance of young kids taking up nicotine ingestion (you could hardly call it “smoking” as the article says some of the wowsers do), but what about to old (and not so old) farts who are desperate to give up? Don’t they have a case too? What’s it worth to the public health system to keep them from drowning in their own fluids? I am also aware that keeping smokers alive, even getting them off the cigs, is in the end a nett cost to the revenue, because (as Sir Humphrey Applebee says) then you have to pay them pensions!

    My take on the wowsers who want to ban vaping is that they are suffering from a clear case of knee-jerk reaction. As one woman said to me the other day, “But you’re still addicted!”, to which I replied, “Yes, but I’m still alive too, and enjoying it physically for the first time in as long as I can remember.”

    She didn’t convince me, and I didn’t convince her. She sees me as pathetic I suppose, but I see myself as liberated from a life-long destructive habit to the extent that I am not even tempted to go back to it… because I am no longer “a smoker”.

    And, thanks, to e-cigarettes that happened literally overnight. Anyone else trying to give up? I heartily recommend vaping, before the wowsers stop that too.

    Well done BB. I agree with you. Nicotine inhalers and/or ecigs should be part of harm reduction measures. There is very little opposition from inside the Alcohol & other Drugs community. The opposition is from the commercial monopolies and politicians.

  41. Coal fired power station.

    I have continued my information collection binge, attending the Melbourne CEO Breakfast – The DER Landscape & Future Strategy.

    It was an interesting talk; 5 minute settlement is coming; there is now a minimum inertia and fault level requirement ( I hope it is worded so you can create it with control systems and not just rotating masses); and a few other rule changes to support distributed generation.

    My conclusion; renewables have won; the Liberals have not stopped it, all they have done is turn Australia into followers instead of leaders. I really wish the ignorant sods would just shut up and get out of the way.

  42. 90% of the time kidney stones show up on plain XR, the characteristic pain plus blood in urine plus XR make it a certain diagnosis. I’m pretty sure Indomethacin is first line analgesia

  43. Citizen
    “There’s an answer for that. Create a multi billion dollar taxpayer funded program to give people who hate renewables a mini coal fired power station in their own backyard!”

    Better yet, force all recipients to install a mini coal fired furnace and power source in their own living rooms, just like in the old days. Then they can settle back and enjoy the health benefits of inhaling coal smoke.

  44. I was busy during the week and did not get a chance to post on this article:
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/pressure-builds-for-review-of-how-infrastructure-projects-are-assessed-20180607-p4zk5u.html

    Labor must change this when in office. At present, even those infrastructure projects that go through a “proper” BCR process do so against parameters dreamed up 20 years ago when only tollroads or freeways were considered. The current 7% discount rate used in Australia is one of the highest in the OECD – UK uses 4% with sensitivity tests of 3%. Why do we do this? It makes all long term investments look bad.

    Labor should get someone like Andrew Leigh to look into this, he will soon find a better answer.

  46. Diogenes @ #1941 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 6:33 pm

    90% of the time kidney stones show up on plain XR, the characteristic pain plus blood in urine plus XR make it a certain diagnosis. I’m pretty sure Indomethacin is first line analgesia

    Indomethacin aka Indocid – I was trying to think of that as I was given it. Pretty ineffective in my experience and Buscopan did much more to relieve pain from spasms.

    Mine showed up in an X-Ray and the cheery Radioligist told me his recommended treatment. “Drink light beer.”
    “Why light beer I asked?”
    The response: “Why so you can drink lots more as you try to pass the kidney stone.”

  47. A discount rate of 7%? That must be a leftover from the days when everyone assumed 5% interest rates were extremely low and that inflation was a given. I would have thought 3 or 4% made more sense now.

  48. This is the final piece in my transport rant of the week – autonomous cars. I am not a skeptic, some will soon work well enough to be safely let on the road, though not all. But the benefits are being oversold. They will not solve traffic congestion – they might make it worse, as more people drive. They will make roads safer, if properly regulated, and will be a great help in areas likke aged care, where people can stay in their own homes longer. Bottom line is they should help in outer suburbs, but will not eliminate the need for public transport. There are serious safety questions about the recent Uber crash, but the Google car works much better.
    https://streets.mn/2018/05/30/autonomous-cars-can-be-safe-or-mass-marketable-not-both/

  49. Steve

    Yes. The rates (4%, 7% and 10%) were set back in the 90s. I argued this with a senior Commonwealth economist some years ago, but he just fobbed me off.

  50. Thanks for the responses re. Vaping.

    It all boils down to whether nicotine addiction is bad for your health.

    I must confess I can’t see how it would be GOOD for one’s health, but there have been some studies…

    (Not going to start linking here, look for yourselves)

    Many see ANY addiction to ANYTHING as “a bad thing”. I put that on the “wowserism” class, definitely.

    Others associate the nicotine addiction with fags (not an unreasonable association) and therefore condemn any alternative means of nicotine delivery. This, I class as quite possibly muddle-headed, until proven otherwise.

    The simple truth is that inhaling cigarette smoke, full of toxins, half-combusted complex carcinogens, poisons, precipitates and outright tarry gunk, is a much less enticing prospect than inhaling what amounts to the same stuff as is produced by fog machines, laced with a little nicotine to help you get past the mindset that what you’re doing is not only killing you, but may be killing those you love, is anti social and also shameful.

    Think of what they do to coffee beans. “Roasting” means “half cooking”, leaving similar half baked toxins in place of natural oils. Then you boil water and use it make an infusion. Then you drink it, not only scalding your palate, but as often as not mixing the brew with the milk of imprisoned cows, and possibly with the similarly half cooked residues of the cocoa bean. Add in artificially purified sugar, and tell me that’s good, natural and perfectly harmless. And we haven’t even got to the effects of caffeine on the body (many of them similar to nicotine).

    Addiction is merely the use of substances or physical activities to stimulate the pleasure/reward centres of the brain. You can be addicted to exercise, caffeine, sugar, sex, danger, fat, chocolate, alcohol and yes, nicotine.

    What makes nicotine so shameful or, if not shameful, something to be regarded as unpleasant, undesirable and slightly sad, to be “given up” if at all possible while the other addictions remain undisturbed, socially tolerated or even celebrated?

    Divorce nicotine from cigarettes – not easy, but possible – and how dangerous is it, really?

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