The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll sharply reverses a recent trend away from Labor, who are back to leading 54-46 on two-party preferred after their lead fell to 51-49 in the previous poll. This is apparently driven by a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote, but as usual we will have to wait until later today for the full numbers. However, it’s a curiously different story on leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull gains two on approval since last month to reach 42% while remaining steady on 42% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is down four to 33% and up five to 46%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is unchanged, shifting from 40-26 to 41-27. Like ReachTEL and unlike Newspoll, Essential has posed a straightforward question on company tax cuts that finds approval and disapproval tied on 37%. The poll also finds 68% support for an increase in Newstart.
UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition primary vote crashes from 40% to 36%, Labor’s rises one to 37%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are steady on 8%.
UPDATE 2: Further details from those ReachTEL polls for Sky News, which were conducted last Wednesday. In the national poll, after allocating results from a forced response follow-up for the 5.1% undecided, the primary votes were Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.3%, Greens 10.7%, One Nation 9.3% and others 8.2%, translating into a 52-48 lead for Labor after respondent-allocated preferences favoured them by 54.8-45.2. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question was almost exactly unchanged at 54.6-45.4 (54.5-45.5 last month); his very good plus good rating went from 29.9% to 30.8%, and his poor plus very poor from 32.6% to 37.0%. Bill Shorten went from 28.4% to 27.7% on good plus very good, and from 35.5% to 39.9% on poor plus very poor.
In the poll for the Braddon by-election, after allocating the forced follow-up results from the 5.9% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 48.2%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 6.6%, independents 7.2%, others 3.5%, resulting in a 54-46 Liberal lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. In Longman, with the 7.1% initially undecided likewise allocated, the results are Liberal National Party 40.4%, Labor 37.3%, independents 5.5%, Greens 2.7% and others 14.1% (confirming there was no specific option for One Nation), resulting in an LNP lead of 52-48. Respondents for these polls were asked how they would vote “if a by-election in the federal electorate of X were to be held today”. The by-election polls were conducted last Wednesday, from samples of 824 in Braddon and 810 in Longman; the national poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 2523.
Socrates @ #1944 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 6:44 pm
It was not supported by another poster on PB.
Bushfire Bill @ #1949 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 7:13 pm
Never would have picked you as a smoker as you seemed way too intelligent.
Diogenes:
You pulled something out of your memory last night (1am my time) regarding a 5% poll lead (55% vs 45%) leading to a 90% win rate after 6 weeks, and down to 66% after 6 months. Thanks for that.
Interestingly, if I assume the published MOE for a current poll (zero days) is calculated at a 95% confidence level, and the 90% and 66% values you remembered represent the confidence level for the MOE after 6 weeks and 6 months, then it’s a decent linear fit over three data values. (0days,95%) (42days,90%) (182days,66%).
I am probably chasing Alice (the rabbit hole), but it’s an interesting diversion. 🙂
Cheers
Drinking coffee has a direct causal link to lung cancer? This is news to me.
Obesity is often discussed as the new smoking for today’s generation in terms of long term health impacts. Fat shaming is already a thing, so if you smokers thought you had it hard at a time when smoking was all the rage, I’m guessing you ain’t seen nothing yet when the wowsers and moral police set their sights on overweight people.
Bemused 7.13
“It was not supported by another poster on PB.”
What was the other posters view of the problem?
frednk @ #1940 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 6:21 pm
Don’t be absurd. When companies like AGL are planning to continue to burn coal for the next couple of decades – or longer – renewables have not “won”. Ultimately, we have all “lost”.
To tie together two of tonight’s threads …
Coal = smoking cigarettes. You know it will eventually kill you, but you can’t give it up.
Gas = vaping. You know it is still dangerous, but it is way less damaging than coal.
Renewables = cold turkey. Yes, it is ideal – but it is also impractical in many cases.
It is all about harm minimization.
Socrates @ #1954 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 7:23 pm
That the article was a beat up and it was well known in advance the the work would be required wherever the trains were built.
Wish I could remember who it was, but IIRC it was yesterday afternoon.
Drinking coffee has a direct causal link to lung cancer? This is news to me.
Missed the point Fess.
Caffeine us an addictive substance. Anyone who “needs” a coffee in the morning, or throughout the day to get them from A to B is a caffeine addict. Tea drinkers ditto.
Caffeine doesn’t cause lung cancer, of course. But neither does nicotine.
Nicotine, divorced from the combustion process of burning tobacco, is just another addictive substance, no more or less than caffeine.
THAT is my proposition.
So why should vaping be banned? It causes no offence (except to the intractible wowsers among us). It involves no combustion. It invades no space, stains no teeth, stinks out no clothes or furniture.
One final piint on quality of rail rolling stock. Unlike the car infustry, Australian train manufacturers have generally always had a reputation as supplying a premium quality product. So if a cash strapped state government says i5 can get cheaper trains in India, no doubt they can. But the question, are they as good, is valid to ask.
Bombardier in Melbourne makes arguably the world’s most expensive trams, but overall the price premium here is not that bad. If there was a national commitment to an adequate rail PT program in coming decades, IMO there would be enough work to maintain a viable industry here. Night all.
Bemused
Ok thanks, that makes sense. They should have reported the full cost though. Bad accounting, not bad engineering.
Bushfire Bill
The ‘wowsers’ and tobacco companies would form a united front on stopping vaping. Don’t smoke, never have but it seems a no brainer that vaping is far better than chugging down the carcenogenic cocktail in tobacco smoke.
For a start you may not ‘glow in the dark 🙂
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/01/opinion/01proctor.html
By the way, Bemused, thank you for the compliment.
But intelligence is no substitute for stupidity.
Thankfully, I never became addicted to pills, cannabis, heroin, ice, jogging, thrill-seeking, cups of tea, lambs fry, surfing, or gambling. Never even tempted.
I wish I could say the same for wine, women and song.
Is it? I used to have a cup of tea first thing (literally) in the morning and did so for near on 20 years. One day I realised I didn’t like it and stopped. I haven’t had tea for over a year now, and have replaced it with a glass of cold, or cup of hot water with lemon.
Similarly I have a cup of coffee most mornings, but there are days (sometimes several days in a row) when I don’t feel like coffee and will instead have a cup of hot water or a glass of cold water with lemon or lime.
As a smoker did you ever have days when you didn’t feel like smoking and simply didn’t?
Confessions, the first sign of addiction is denial.
Addiction can always be overcome by an exercise of the will. In your case you found you did not like your cuppa in the morning. That was a negative sign which outweighed the positives of your (until then) addiction.
We all have to find our downside, one that eventually outweighs the rewards. I found mine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaslighting
Gaslighting is a form of manipulation that seeks to sow seeds of doubt in a targeted individual or in members of a targeted group, hoping to make them question their own memory, perception, and sanity. Using persistent denial, misdirection, contradiction, and lying, it attempts to destabilize the target and delegitimize the target’s belief.
Instances may range from the denial by an abuser that previous abusive incidents ever occurred up to the staging of bizarre events by the abuser with the intention of disorienting the victim. The term owes its origin to the 1938 Patrick Hamilton play Gas Light and its 1940 and 1944 film adaptations. The term has been used in clinical and research literature, as well as in political commentary.
I think we see a bit of this at PB…
Bushfire:
I can assure you it was absolutely no hardship to give up tea and (sometimes) coffee in the morning. No ‘exercising of will’ or anything. Giving it up was no difficulty at all, but on the days I drink coffee I never drink more than two cups in a day and never in the afternoon.
I think you’re trying too hard to link smoking to an acceptable, commonplace behaviour to prove the addictive qualities of nicotine, but would suggest you link it with alcohol consumption instead. Or processed sugar consumption.
We constantly read about the physiological impacts on the body when people who are heavy drinkers or heavy consumers of processed food either stop consuming alcohol, or switch out their diet for raw unprocessed foods. That to me is a better comparison with heavy smokers giving up.
Socrates
Look at the latest edition of create; and then ask yourself is a technology that requires such infrastructure really viable. When there are auto trains on old lines ( a much more controlled environment) I will start believing in self drive cars.
Caffeine is indeed addictive but I only drink it when programming, withdrawal takes a day and a few aspirins; hardly the end of the world.
Confessions, I’m perfectly happy to concede that your drinking coffee in the morning was not a sign of addiction. After all you have given it up without any thought or regret. You just stopped.
Not everyone is the same, and I suggest that caution is required when assuming that simply because you didn’t feel addicted to caffeine, or are not prepared to admit that you might have been, then no-one can possibly be.
I used caffeine addiction precisely because it really exists, and because it is socially acceptable for the most part, unlike untrammeled alcohol addiction.
Associating nicotine addiction with socially unacceptable smoking is a mistake. Today, nicotine addiction and smoking can be separated. Continuing to conflate the two is, I suggest, why vaping has been, or is about to be banned here, and why there is so much hysteria about it.
Player One says:
Saturday, June 9, 2018 at 7:27 pm
frednk @ #1940 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 6:21 pm
My conclusion; renewables have won;
Don’t be absurd. When companies like AGL are planning to continue to burn coal for the next couple of decades – or longer – renewables have not “won”. Ultimately, we have all “lost”.
P1 I don’t expect people like you to accept reality. AGL will not build a new coal fired power station; they will build solar/wind and batteries; and I really don’t care how disconnected from reality you or the hard right are. Within 30 years 90% of Australia coal fired stations will be gone.
We will be followers not leaders; two terms of Liberal government has seen to that; the fact that six years was enough underlines how fast it is all moving.
…had to have a major (ish) filling done a few weeks ago, because basically a tooth fell apart, and had ongoing problems afterwards which led to a bit more work on it last week — wondering if it’s a piece of tooth or filling which is causing the problems?
frednk @ #1969 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 8:27 pm
You say that as if we have 30 years to sort this out. We don’t.
You are like a nicotine addict – you’re always going to give up next week.
BB,
Thanks for sharing your experience. HI has tried vaping but hasn’t liked the flavour of the stuff bought online. Now smokes skinny rollies as they take time and has reduced the amount of tobacco smoked.
How did you find one you liked?
zoomster @ #1970 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 8:32 pm
That would pass through your stomach and digestive tract. It would not get to your kidneys.
Bushfire Bill @ #1968 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 8:25 pm
I think you are allowing yourself to be caught out by some “gaslighting”.
When I was in the work force, one of my pet annoyances was people who showed up 5 minutes late to a 9:00AM meeting with a cup of coffee. Their morning cup was more important than everyone’s time.
P1; the rate at which coal is retired will depend on the rate of build; which is now accelerating; not the destruction. Wind and solar is cheaper; the need for “base load” will reduce as we learn to run a network without it.
Your Gas dream is not going to happen; gas is a similar cost to build as wind/solar but it costs too much to run. They will be peaking stations; competing against all other forms of such activities; batteries hydro. I suspect snowy two will not happen, too expensive to build, it’s a Turnbull dream.
Steve777 @ #1975 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 8:44 pm
Who was running the meeting?
They should have received a reminder of the starting time.
“Who was running the meeting?
They should have received a reminder of the starting time.”
When it was me they did.
Just catching up on that Fairfax expose on the SASR.
Very disturbing, to say the least, but it accords with certain rumours I have heard over the years concerning a deterioration in standards, as our special forces did more and more tours working hand in glove with the Americans. One Calvary Commander I know – who has himself done 3 tours – told me in effect that rot set in when the military brass started using the mytique of the Regiment for promotional purposes, explaining in part the descent from ‘the dentists’ to ‘the spartans’. Certainly more medals (with 60 Minutes stories etc etc) have been won since 2007 than during any other period. One only has to read the combat reports relating to the 2002 battle for Tora Bora (hardly any medals, despite incredible heroism of each of the operators over more than 24 hours of constant combat) with the 2008 and 2010 ‘battles’ that lead to the awarding of VCs (and accompanying promotional tours for the recipients, even though they were still serving Operators) and a multitude of other medals for other operators – to realise that the Regiment had fundamentally changed. Simply put the SASR as presently constituted bear only a passing resemblance to the regiment and its operators from its inception up until about 2003. This change happened to coincide with the appointment of our current GG to Chief of the Army and then Chief of the Defence Force. Truly, Sir Peter was the consummate politician in uniform, but at what price? …
One other interesting ‘thing’. Up until about 2005 operators and commanders engaged in combat could request and would get ‘real time’ advice from Department of Defence lawyers about the rules of engagement whilst on the actual field of battle. Many of my legal colleagues who are also serving reserve officers talk about being on duty at one end of a satellite phone giving advice to some WO, Lieutenant or Captain in Afghanistan or Iraq. Regrettably that practice doesn’t appear to be in operation and I would bet ‘Lionadis’ wouldn’t have bothered in any event.
Steve777 @ #2002 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 6:44 pm
That’s my pet hate too: tardiness.
Steve777 @ #1978 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 8:49 pm
Good on you. I share your feelings.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1979 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 8:53 pm
All of which avoids the big underlying question.
WTF are we doing there in the first place?
frednk @ #1976 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 8:46 pm
Quite likely. Australia is addicted to coal, and (like an addict) pretends that the consequences only happen to other people.
“All of which avoids the big underlying question.
WTF are we doing there in the first place?”
It actually doesn’t at all. It’s a seperate question.
Politicians are responsible for that decision.
Regardless of the quality of the political decision making, our military are responsible for executing the policy of the government of the day according to military law.
P1; gas is not coal. Gas is not going to happen because wind and solar are going to happen first. The Gas period has come; and gone. It really is that simple.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1984 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 9:12 pm
Politicians made a bad decision and the military pay the price.
frednk @ #1985 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 9:13 pm
You do understand that it is the cumulative amount of C02 that we emit that counts, right?
Any amount of coal that we can prevent being burnt is a plus. Anything that perpetuates the burning of coal is a minus.
Now, tell me again why you want to continue to burn coal till 2050?
Seems P1 just doesn’t get it that the amount of coal being burnt is going to decline rapidly, with very little being burnt as 2050 approaches. Possibly none.
Qasar, a relative-in-law had taken up vaping and gave me a try. It was OK, but nothing to write home about.
Then Her Indoors organised with the relative a “starter” kit for me, consisting of a second hand vaping pen, some “oil” (“Grape” flavour, it’s actually flavoured glycol) plus some nicotine oil to mix with it. The first batch of “Grape” came already laced with nicotine oil by my relative (4mg per 50mls of Wild Grape).
Vaping works by means of a wick immersed in the flavoured glycol that absorbs it. Around the wick is wrapped some resistive wire – called a “coil”. Wick and coil are enclosed in a bullet-sized stainless steel receptacle (also called a “coil”). You press a button causing electrical current to pass through the coil, heating it and then vapourizing some of the glycol in the wick. The vapour – glycol, flavour and nicotine (optional) – is mixed with air and inhaled through a mouthpiece. The “nicotine hit” is not as strong as that first heady drag on a ciggy in the morning, but takes effect fairly quickly anyway.
I buy my accoutrements on-line from a Melbourne firm called Wick & Wire. For what it’s worth, the flavour I use is “Wild Berry”, and I have halved the nicotine dose from 4 to 2mg per 50ml of oil.
There’s a certain “ceremony” involved in vaping. You have to prepare things – flavoured glycol, coils, keep things clean – more trouble than smoking a tailor made fag, but less than rolling your own or smoking a pipe. You can see why young people have turned vaping (non nicotine) into a sort of subculture. It’s the ceremony of it.
This is, I suppose, is why “Health Authorities” frown on vaping, believing that it might lead to use of nicotine.
But in my opinion the hit from vaping nicotine is far less alluring than dragging on a fag, and you’d have to be really keen to use vaping as a path to full-blown nicotine addiction. And even if you did could it be anywhere as bad as using fags?
“Politicians made a bad decision and the military pay the price.”
People die in war. Military (and civilians) pay a price, no matter whether a particular war is a ‘good war’ or not. Bad political decisions do not excuse poor military decisions. Any more than a ‘good war’ would excuse such conduct. ‘Leonidas’ and his patrol were given a free hand by his immediate commanders (hello Andrew Hastie), despite decades of military discipline and training in our strict rules of engagement. The rule book went out the window. This had nothing to do with the then Minister of Defence, Stephen Smith or the government of the day. It is entirely on the military.
Let’s be blunt about this – kicking a captive off a cliff and then ‘putting him out of his misery’ is plain murder, no matter the circumstance. Despite seperate complaints to seperate commanders nothing was done for 4 years. If proven, this would be unprecedented in Australian military history. This is a big deal.
It’s always shocking to read something like this, but I guess he’s lucky he has the platform to bid a final farewell.
…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-note-to-readers/2018/06/08/3512010c-6b24-11e8-bea7-c8eb28bc52b1_story.html?utm_term=.3a2d12e5ff0c
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1990 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 9:27 pm
Oh I agree that is murder and should be prosecuted as such.
The training given to people in the military of necessity de-sensitises them to killing other human beings.
So a decision to put the military into such an environment pretty much guarantees that such things will happen.
So it gets back to politicians creating the circumstances.
@Bemused
Actually you started it.
Correct me if I’m wrong, and through the mists of time I may be ‘misremembering’, however I’m pretty sure that Player One spent day after day subsequent to the 2016 Census, being certain beyond all getout, that the breakdown in online form submission and system crashing was the fault of the Bureau of Statistics and the fact that they hadn’t properly war-gamed how many of us would submit our forms at the one time.
Apparently not.
Here is the truth of the matter via Senate Estimates, as it relates to a justification for passing the government’s Cyber Espionage Bills before the 5 by-elections:
And, yes, I am prepared for Player One to quibble and say that, the Bureau of Statistics should have been prepared for the consequences of a DNS attack, and they weren’t. However, that sort of deduction is a bit too simplistic for my liking. It seems to me like it was a sophisticated and sustained effort. Beyond that which any Australian entity had had to deal with previously.
C@tmomma @ #1994 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 9:42 pm
You are indeed wrong.
Player One @ #1995 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 9:47 pm
How?
‘Fess,
I fear something similar to that which has befallen Krauthammer has happened to CTar1. 🙁
Zoidlord @ #1993 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 9:39 pm
Pull your head in.
C@tmomma @ #1996 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 9:47 pm
There was no denial of service attack on the census. That was a fairly lame and easily refuted excuse.