The only new poll result this week, from Newspoll, landed right on the existing results for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records only the slightest of movements in this week’s update. The biggest of these is a 0.4% increase for One Nation, who were up two points in Newspoll. The only changes on the seat projection result from the fact that my hypothetical election is now one conducted using mini-redistributions, giving Labor extra seats in Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory, and the Liberals losing one in South Australia.
The voting intention readings don’t offer much excitement, but Newspoll’s latest leadership numbers further contribute to an impression of rising popularity (or at least, falling unpopularity) for Malcolm Turnbull, which seemed to kick in two to three months ago. Turnbull’s net approval trend rating is now well clear of Bill Shorten’s for the first time since early 2016, and he has more than recovered from a slight dip in his preferred prime minister rating over New Year.
Full results:
This whinge from Gai Waterhouse makes the front page of the DT:
Barney in Go Dau (Block)
Saturday, June 2nd, 2018 – 9:00 am
Comment #598
KayJay @ #597 Saturday, June 2nd, 2018 – 8:55 am
Zen benk acownt No and I zen you nice gold plate fowntan pen viz your Barney own it.
Prince Kayjay 😇
Victoria:
If you’re around you’ll get a kick out of this. Steve Bannon’s advice to the GOP to save them from midterm wipeout: be more like Italy!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bannons-strategy-for-victory/2018/06/01/59d20cae-65d8-11e8-99d2-0d678ec08c2f_story.html?utm_term=.48eb01f98e4d
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/06/02/inside-labors-refugee-strategy/15278616006320
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2018/06/02/barnaby-joyce-wreaks-havoc-again/15278616006305
Is this another one of Turnbull’s cunning plans that always seem to explode in his face?
lizzie @ #603 Saturday, June 2nd, 2018 – 9:08 am
The plan then would be to inflict a flesh wound on Mr. Shorten even though, according to the author of the above he, Mr. Shorten, is all but dead and buried, rotting in the backwoods of political life. The flesh wound would be inflicted by Mr. Turnbull shooting himself in the foot and blaming Mr. Shorten.
How strange it is then, that Mr. Shorten (may he rest in peace) looks set to lead the Labor party to a resounding victory wiping out the hopes of many a LNP MP for a continuation of a life in the sun.
Far too complicated for me. Ms. Karen Middleton, please explain.
Vere, sorry, where are those vibbly, vobbly toys for sale ❓
The latest from the far Right’s war on women: the Tradwife. All a bit too Handmaid’s Tale for me.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/01/opinion/sunday/tradwives-women-alt-right.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region®ion=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region
I can see another letter being written.
Laura Tingle looks at Divided Nation and the Libs problems with no mention of Labor leadersh!t.
Naughty girl!!!!! 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-02/pauline-hanson-not-the-only-politician-feeling-the-heat/9825020
C@tmomma
It is this adversarial approach that creates the great divide. The LNP and their business interests or the business interests and their LNP are seemingly incapable of accepting the rights of others to object to their money making projects that aren’t in the best interests of all.
Since Abbott was given a stint as opposition leader, this attitude was ramped up and remains the biggest obstacle to progress within Australia. The very weak Turnbull will be rewarded for his kowtowing to business interests with a legacy of weakness in his efforts to stay as PM.
We are now being directed by the likes of Fifield not to question the government if it doesn’t conform.
If it’s not the ABC its ths Unions or the industry super funds, the unemployed, the mamed, live exports, the GBR, the MurrayDarling, solar power and it goes on forever. Australians are being asked not to question the LNP government and it will punish any individual or organisation that does!
Promoting business without consideration is not the way forward in such changing times. No better example than the banks!
Of course, any objection against the LNP is blasted by the lackey serfs in ths media as restriction of the freedom to do whatever pleases the money makers.
The best performing countries in the world do not have this great divide. I’m continually surprised that the polls remain so favourable to the LNP, which is now no more than a right wing authoritarian shambles.
Australian voters are denied access to information such as the budget details, government contracts and a right to vote in by elections in appropriately quick time.
There are sitting LNP politicians who have not been referred to the High Court because its not in the best interests of Turnbull staying in power. What blatant deceit.
Perhaps the value of housing needs to fall 10% to provide a catalyst for Australians to chuck the bums out.
From that article about tradwives, the thought processes (such as they are) behind women wanting that lifestyle.
The problem with this is that they are selectively choosing from that era. They forget that the pill, no-fault divorce, married women being allowed to work even if they chose not to, and women being regarded as their own agency, not the property of their husbands only came about because of the second wave of feminism.
In politics disunity is death and current the Federal Coalition are very disunited (disfunctional as well). This does not forbode well for the forthcoming election.
Confessions @ #610 Saturday, June 2nd, 2018 – 6:45 am
Yep, it comes down to the ability to choose!
Financial constraints may inhibit a woman’s desire to stay at home but Society no longer says that is the way it should be and you have the right to choose.
Both staying at home or going out and working are valid choices!! 🙂
Good Morning
A reminder. Despite the hype Labor is still in front in the polls.
A good case is Tasmania. Murdoch dominated to the point the media thinks its good to talk about a National being foisted on that state.
Yet at the last election due to the inequality which the media cannot cover up due to the fact Tasmania is small enough that the unemployment rate and underpayment of those in work is felt across the whole community.
Thats whats happening on the Mainland as well.
The truth is that Hanson has reversed her position on corporate tax cuts precisely because the community is seeing the reality denied by the right wing press.
Look at the survey’s and results. The media may be trying to boost Turnbull even falling in line with the “Kill Bill” strategy to the point of saying its not supposed to “Kill Bill” but just be a flesh wound.
This does not change the reality. Its the media that is out of touch this is why I expect a landslide Labor win this time.
The LNP is basing its hopes that a fear campaign can overcome reality.
If thats the case Hanson would have supported the corporate tax cuts.
The truth is that people heard Sally McManus on the visa programme about immigration.
The minimum wage is a focus of even that socialist body the Reserve Bank of Australia with its oh so socialist economists arguing for wage rises.
Make no mistake its the media that is out of touch and look at the primary votes. We know the LNP does not win government on primary figures like Labor can because they don’t get the preferences.
The people that vote Liberal are so convinced by the don’t vote for minor party arguments they give their preferences to Labor before the minor parties.
For those on the right Hanson has proved the LNP argument for them again.
So they will preference Labor before a minor party. So look at those primary votes in the polling. Look at the 2pp and see the LNP and their backers are desperate and hyping to the point that reality is left behind.
The falling audience figures for the media are very telling. People literally don’t buy the propaganda. A lot of newsagents are now not putting out the banner headlines at the front of their stores.
People are refusing to take the Daily Telegraph even when its offered free at supermarkets.
This is the reality not the hype by the media and the Canberra Press Gallery is in a bubble along with their colleagues in other cities.
So yes Labor has an Everest to climb to win the election but be in no doubt Labor is starting in front.
Progressive ideas of equality are what the public is clamouring for no matter what the media says.
Australia is not a right wing country despite what the politicians and the media are saying stuck in their Canberra bubble.
Despite the conservatives we have got Marriage Equality. We have had a rise in the minimum wage in real terms under their watch. People know Private Health Insurance is a con. People know that even if they are being paid ok their friends and family are not.
The LNP can talk up job creation taking a leaf out of the US book but with compulsory voting that won’t save them. Bosses can’t suppress the vote by requiring people to work and not go to the polls.
The public has stopped listening to the LNP and are listening to Labor. Labor has to be strong and not weak and fall prey to the hype of the right and be Liberal lite.
Thats this whole Shorten is unpopular is about. The right through all its power of media propaganda is trying to run the narrative that will scare Labor into being Liberal lite and thus give the Liberals a chance. After all if Labor is going to be Libeal Lite we might as well vote for the real thing.
So Turnbull flew overnight to support Downer in Mayo and arrived with a pork barrel $5m cheque for swimming centre, which should be funded by the State government. A hint of desperation?
William Bowe @ #558 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 11:31 pm
Ladbrokes are running a gambling operation, not a psephology website.
The purpose of novelty markets such as next election is for marketing purposes, they want to attract people like me who wouldn’t normally (or ever) gamble, but can be tempted by a novelty market and hopefully change my behaviour from not gambling to gambling.
On gambling odds more generally, the probability of an outcome is not the only factor in determining the odds. The flow of money for a given option factors into it and complex algorithms are at play in determining the odds. The market may have been closed due to their access to inside information, the flow of bets may have made the risks associated with it too high, or some other reason.
Remember, gambling operations run in their own best interests and the house almost never looses.
lizzie @ #615 Saturday, June 2nd, 2018 – 7:01 am
The ABC Memorial Swimming Centre!
Lest we forget!!!! 🙁
Barney:
I can’t conceive of any woman wanting to go back to an era in which they had very little rights at all.
The push from the far right to make us all individuals is a push to ultimately disempower us. If we’re all doing it for ourselves, fighting our own battles, etc then we are in fact powerless against the forces combined against us. “Union makes us strong’ is a fact, not a slogan.
I’m beginning to see UBI as part of that pattern.
It gives you money with no responsibility.
For example, if you want to discourage women from engaging in the work place, and go back to being housewives, UBI helps.
If you want to discourage engagement in society, UBI helps. Go off and do your own thing, there’s no responsibility put on you to connect.
I’ve been speculating that this is one of the reasons UBI is promoted by right wing governments, which seems counter intuitive.
So I was interested in reading this report on the UBI trial in Kenya (I was looking into the background of the charity involved, to see whether it’s got right wing connections – I haven’t been able to find anything at all so far…).
This, I think, is very pertinent —
‘t is still the case that for people to make the most of the cash, they must be able to purchase high-quality, affordable products and services—such as water purification, education, health care, fortified foods, and farm extension services—that are typically not available in rural areas unless someone else subsidizes them.’
https://ssir.org/articles/entry/givedirectly_not_so_fast
In short the media still reports economic policy as if trickle down neo liberal market policy is not a failed and discredited economic policy.
If Labor or the Greens had such a policy you know what the headlines would be.
There would be nothing about tactics to discredit the LOTO of the day.
Confessions @ #618 Saturday, June 2nd, 2018 – 7:06 am
That will never be the case, my point is that women can choose what they do. 🙂
From the BK Files.
This is scary. A former student of Sydney’s Cromer High has furiously unloaded on his teachers for treating sex with teenage girls as a “fringe benefit” of the job.
https://outline.com/SNcEKe
At last, a brave new world for users, abusers, manipulators, psychopaths and all round assholes.
This makes me want to vomit!
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/05/31/girl-told-hungering-god/
The lady 🤰who has produced six children 👼who gets a mention today would perhaps be pleased with these events.
There is an old joke which goes something like.
Written on a toilet wall
My mother made made me a homosexual.
Underneath, neatly written.
If I give her the wool, will she make me one ❓ 🐑
If the above mentioned lady (6 children) only knitted them then all is well ❗
Zoomster
UBI helps woman be financially independent by giving them a right to an income independent of a man.
This means that woman can move and rent a house because they will have financial independence.
A UBI si not a friend to neo liberal free market economic types which is why I think Abbott went off the idea.
Remember the last attack on ‘red tape’, when $1000s were spent on correcting grammar and typos and nothing much changed?
Conservatives’ idea of red tape is probably safety regulation, animal welfare, shooting and motor licences.
Lizzie
I didnt take Jane Prentice to be a loony IPA follower. Shame.
Fess
I might argue that wives do not always have a choice whether or not to work to supplement the family income. Also, the social changes did not immediately arrive with the Pill. It took Whitlam to take the first steps to unshackle wives to pursue education and non-combative divorce.
Ides
Yes, I was a little surprised.
zoomster:
Good point about UBI abrogating responsibility.
lizzie
Until woman have financial independence then of course they have less choice. Our society has changed and now woman have more financial independence.
To see how far we have to go just look at how long the equal pay case is happening.
The only country to tackle this head on so far as I am aware is Iceland making equal pay a condition that employers have to have to be in business.
lizzie @ #627 Saturday, June 2nd, 2018 – 8:18 am
Yes of course.
It is my understanding that in the US there are states which still do not have no-fault divorce.
zoomster @ #613 Saturday, June 2nd, 2018 – 10:07 am
Zoomster
You are in your heart deeply conservative and cannot abide change of any kind.
To actually discuss UBI as a right wing p;lot is truly way out there as a reaction to the new and unknown, based on bloody nothing.
”UBI is basically just a reworking of our current Newstart, but without the acrimony and judgement. It is closer to the concept of unemployment benefit when first introduced, rather than our current mean workhouse type of arrangement.
Now I have issues with the concept mostly to to with how it an be afforded and of course to set it up in such a way that is does not discourage workforce participation. However these are implementation issues, not opposition to the concept.
The more fundamental ideological issue relates to the concept of middle class welfare rather than means tested welfare. Now as a child of the 60s and the Whitlam era, I actually prefer universal welfare rather than means tested welfare, a concept that is out of favour currently with most of the left and the ALP, but is the principle upon which medicare rests. I think means testing stuff divides society, reduces public support for welfare in general and leads to costly and intrusive surveillance and monitoring. Of course I recognise that cost is a factor, so perhaps the ideal is not possible.
Confessions
UBI mandates society has a responsibility to keep people out of poverty. It does the opposite of degrade social responsibility.
The idea is that an income is a human right not something that is at the whim of employers and no pay you become homeless.
The only thing the UBI does is give individuals more choice within that system. No punish people for not working.
This way more men may choose to stay home as much as woman do.
Making out UBI is all free market neo liberalism ideals is the major mistake when discussing UBI.
At its heart the universality of the idea is exactly like that of Medicare. Society has a responsibility to look after its citizens.
Fess
Thanks for linking latest musings from Bannon.
Will be interesting to see what the mood in Italy will be
zoomster is right to question the UBI.
It is something completely new and as such should be looked at from all angles so as to investigate potential issues.
Of course you could take the brain fart approach and just do it and then discover the problems first hand.
🙂
Barney in Go Dau @ #631 Saturday, June 2nd, 2018 – 10:33 am
Also known as ‘the scientific method’. Just don’t tell the scientists. 🙂
Guytaur
I think that UBI could not be introduced on its own without great thought and without other government programs and strategies.
One obvious side effect would be rent cost. If more people had more money rents would go up UNLESS you also combine it with either rent control, government housing or some sort of direct rental component coming from the UBI. This to prevent gouging by landlords. Again this is achievable with a bit of common sense.
I do worry about work incentives as discussed yesterday. I also worry about the lack of social interaction amongst those who choose only the UBI.
I personally would combine UBI with a Jobs guarantee program that is in a sense compulsory.
Taking on the allocated job would be semi compulsory, but it would be a real job. My idea would be that well in advance govrnment agencies, councis and NFP would identify tasks that they would like to achieve if money and resources were avaialble. When known unemplyment trigges are reached the money flows out and the local council has 50 positions for weed clearance, home maintenance, filing etc ie whatever is on the list.
Barney
No one has advocated just doing it.
Unlike the neo liberal economics approach of lets just gut regulations and let the market rip there are trials happening around the world.
The results are not in yet.
UBI has more credibility than neo liberal let the market rip economics which has not been tried as a brainfart anywhere.
Unlike what is implied by your use of brain fart the smart people want trials not just willy nilly lets just make western economies the laboratories approach we got with the neo liberal trickle down economics approach that the right foisted on the world.
Tim Wilson and Jane Prentice are all stoked up about too much red tape cooking sheep alive?
That is a new one!
Tim Wilson and Jane Prentice are all stoked up about too much red tape stopping bosses from stealing their workers’ super!
Tim Wilson and Jane Prentice are all stoked up about too much red tape is stopping bosses from stealing their workers’ pay!
Tim Wilson and Jane Prentice are all stoked up about too much red tape stopping workers from dying at work!
Turnbull presser now
That Pork Barrel Lizzie mentioned above
daretotread – the key underlying concept of a UBI is that it replaces all other social spending programs- it is meant to be the single standalone welfare spending. One of the supposed selling points is the massive savings in administration.
guytaur – the only problem with your claim about the credibility of a UBI versus Conservative economic theory is that UBI has not worked anywhere and Conservative economic theory is the most successful form of economic development in history – that’s why global capital and immigration flows want to go to the most economically successful countries.
guytaur……………agreed with many of your summations a few posts ago, but I diverge at the point your claim people are listening to Labor. They may, but I sense, as you have said yourself, they are ceasing to listen at all. I don’t think 2 out of 3 people stop listening to the LNP and then pay attention to Labor.
To that extent I think there is a general malaise in the whole community…….chaotic parliament, banks/financial institutions stinking to high heaven, corruption and shonky practices in business (and some unions), being conned about jobs while wages are stagnant – and to top it off – the captain of the Oz cricket team (and couple of mates) outed as cheats. I suggest we in Oz – and it seems many in the Western democracies, are actually despondent about the future.
There is a growing belief the system is fractured, if not broken, and Royal weddings and the stuff that goes with them, fixes nothing.
Tricot – the malaise is in the echo chamber here.
Crank
Trickle down there is no society gut regulations and let the market rip is a major falling of economics.
Its up there with communism.
You confuse Thatcher’s and Reagan’s neo liberal voodoo economics with capitalism which has been around before that.
Capitalism works when you regulate it. Capitalism works when you understand there is a society
Tricot
Thats the rot the Press gallery and like outlets around the world are parroting to preserve their vested interests.
People have not stopped listening to Labor or even the Greens. They know the reality and know the reforms Labor have proposed for accountability will work.
Just like the voting public liked Mark Latham’s lets stop the uncontrolled spending on politicians salaries and perks.
Same story and it resonates and Labor is on the right side of history on that.
Despite the media trying to make out both sides are the same. Something I don’t like the Greens saying. I know Labor is not great on many issues. However they are streets ahead of the extreme right wing LNP
Guytaur – there is no such thing as trickle down economics- a comedian made up the name and no serious economist or conservative subscribes to anything by that name.
Conservatives are committed to the rule of law and a minimum level of regulation to ensure effective and efficient operation. I have never seen a serious Conservative economist or politician campaign for no regulation and just letting the market rip – as you so eloquently put it.
Crank
Yes there is. Its what the IPA wish list is. Its what the LNP are using as their economic policy.
All the way down to calling regulation to stop cruelty to animals as “red tape”.
Thats neo liberalism there is no society economics as touted by Thatcher and Reagan in the 80’s. A brain fart that replicates the conditions that brought us the Great Depression and gave us the GFC