With the only poll this week being Essential Research’s best result for the Coalition in 18 months, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its slow and steady trend this week in shifting 0.2% to the Coalition on two-party preferred. The only change on the seat projection is a gain for the Coalition in Victoria. No new leadership ratings this week, so that’s your lot. Full results as always through the link below.
@bemused:
“Yes, it was a Russian missile …”
That is still denied. At that point comparisons with the Americans falls apart.
“but who commanded it? Russian regulars or the rebels?”
Putin denies that it was either. Again – compare with the Americans? Really?
“Who gave the order to deploy it?”
Putin. Again denied of course.
“ Who gave the order to fire?”
Given the radio communication intercepts replayed within hours to the whole world it was the Russian backed rebels. There has never even any doubt about that at all.
“Yes, it is now fairly conclusive that it came from that side.
Why would the Russians want to do it, particularly knowing how the US and others would react?”
It was obviously a frack up mistake, but Russia bears most (not all) of the responsibility. Malaysian Airlines is guilty of contributory negligence by not rerouting its planes around the conflict area (as other airlines, including Qantas had done months before) because it wanted to scrimp on fuel and air rights fees.
There is no great mystery about this at all.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #701 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 5:47 pm
Ukraine was part of the USSR and has BUK missiles so that on its own tells us little.
I has been traced to a particular Air Defence Regiment and I assume that is correct. But what was to stop the Russians transferring it to the Ukranian rebels as a means of supplying them?
Work is proceeding on tracing its movements – that, if it bears fruit, will nail down where and to whom it went and if it ever left Russian control.
Still a few loose ends.
A-E
After global warming, THE issue confronting Australia.
Thoughtful post, IMO. But, while it is an important issue across the board, foreign interferance is not actual the highest order issue.
I would reset the debate around a (very generalized) binary: trade and defence.
ATM all sides in Australian politics tacitly accept the notion that Australia can have a separate main trading partner and main military partner.
IMO, from first principles, and based on historical precendents, this is simply not a goer in the long term.
I have believed all along that the nanosecond China cracked the trade whip we would be confronted with the realization no amount of air warfare destroyers, submarines and planes would help us. Our Defence White Paper is based on the assumption that we can ride the two horses. Instead, we are sliding along with our national arse crack on a razor blade.
China is now cracking the trade whip. And not all the US military power can do a thing about it.
The most interesting moment on Insiders this morning was Kenny mentioning the high level Australian businessman in China who was told wtte that Chinese enterprises have been told to drag the chain when it comes to doing business with Australia.
Ciobo, Bishop and Turnbull are desperately trying to ‘fix’ the problem. But any immediate fix will be short-term and cosmetic. The reality is that if we truly want to stay free we will have to wean ourselves off the China trade.
Is somebody trying to argue that Putin is a worse liar than Trump?
Good luck with that.
While not wishing to steal the thunder of the Irish thread, the polls were out by humungous amounts. I suggest that the Shy Lefty effect.
Note where the author is employed.
Boerwar @ #704 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 4:06 pm
Putin is a smarter liar than Trump. Both are liars though. (I hesitate to use the phrase same-same for obvious reasons.)
DG
I think I agree with you but I am not so sure that Trump is a dumb liar. His lies have taken him to leadership of the free world.
Bill Shorten ups the ante.
http://www.afr.com/news/bill-shorten-ups-the-ante-against-rotten-corporate-tax-cut-20180527-h10lln
Rowe lampoons Joyce’s plea for privacy on his family natters.
bw
Trump the leader of the free world? I put it to you that because of Trump that role has been ceded to perhaps Merkel or Macron. It’s quite possible that Trudeau or even Ardern are closer to being “leaders of the free world” than Trump. May and Turnbull are of course nowhere near it.
Greensborough Growler @ #703 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 4:21 pm
Is that a pig (pork) behind Barnaby, looking out the window?
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/05/2018-braddon-by-election.html
2018 Braddon By-Election
My preview and candidate guide, including detailed discussion of whether state election results rub off on federal election results in the same state (TLDR – it’s complicated).
Whether Potus is now leader of the free world or not is irrelevant. What’s true is that Trump’s lies have gotten him and his family into the White House where they are using the legitimacy of the WH to enrich the family businesses, doing this in ways that violate the Constitution, and the laws governing the office.
To round out the snarkish ‘same same’ malarkey that Piroti raised with his comparison with the Americans, while Putin (and his apologists) are still floating down de nile four years later the American naval commander’s action was the focus of intense american scrutiny from the get go. America even agreed to the international court case going ahead and ultimately reached a settlement with Iran. Comparison with Putin and Russia? Really? Get a grip.
Again from Wikipedia:
“The event generated a great deal of criticism of the United States. Some analysts blamed the captain of Vincennes, William C. Rogers III, for overly-aggressive behavior in a tense and dangerous environment.[7][11]
“In 1996, the United States and Iran reached a settlement at the International Court of Justice which included the statement “…the United States recognized the aerial incident of 3 July 1988 as a terrible human tragedy and expressed deep regret over the loss of lives caused by the incident…”.[12] As part of the settlement, even though the United States did not admit legal liability or formally apologize to Iran, they still agreed to pay US$61.8 million on an ex gratia basis, amounting to $213,103.45 per passenger, in compensation to the families of the Iranian victims.[13]
“This event ranks tenth among the deadliest-ever aviation disasters and retains the record for highest death toll of any aviation incident in the Persian Gulf. The incident displaced the shootdown of Korean Airlines Flight 007 five years earlier to become the deadliest airliner shootdown up to that point, and remained so until its death toll was surpassed by the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in July 2014.”
DG
‘….or even Ardern are closer to being “leaders of the free world” than Trump. May and Turnbull are of course nowhere near it.’
NZ does not have an air force. Its navy consists of two frigates commanded by a rear admiral. Its regular army numbers 4,500.
Far from being a leader, the cunning Adern is hiding behind Australia’s military skirts.
Rowe with apologies to Jack Thompson?
Indeed.
https://www.google.com/search?q=image+of+jack+thompson+nude+centrefold&client=firefox-b&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi33ofjvaXbAhVIa7wKHcYbCm8Q7AkISg&biw=1280&bih=610#imgrc=i-1DIc9S3fHbbM:
c
Jailing corporate crooks would be a step in the right direction.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #715 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 6:28 pm
Well in the Vincennes case it was clear cut and undeniable.
The MH17 case was sufficiently murky to allow an attempt to deny responsibility.
bw
I was referring to the people (Merkel, Macron, Trudeau, Ardern, May, Turnbull, Putin, Trump) rather than their military capabilities. BTW, New Zealand serves no strategic purpose from a military perspective. Australia can be used as a launching pad into Asia, but NZ can’t be used a launching pad to anywhere, not even Australia. Therefore it doesn’t need an air force as much as the other nations.
DG
Being leader of the free world involves your state investing in the military wherewithal.
The New Zealanders are freeloaders.
Not leaders.
@Boerwar-
“I have believed all along that the nanosecond China cracked the trade whip we would be confronted with the realization no amount of air warfare destroyers, submarines and planes would help us. Our Defence White Paper is based on the assumption that we can ride the two horses. Instead, we are sliding along with our national arse crack on a razor blade.”
I have believed all along that, save for cyber intellegence and counter intellegence, Australian defence policy is largely irrelevant to our retlationship with China. To be blunt, unless America is prepared to ‘go nuclear’ American defence policy is irrelevant to America’s relationship with China as well. China knows that, but uniformed chaps in Washington and Canberra are engaged in a mutual mastubation fest involving much Sabre rattling and other such neo con fetishising behaviour. Frankly, if the Dragon comes for us, then we must simply assume the position and put on our best shit eating grin.
No, the real deterrent to China is the fact that if they conquer us, they know that they would then have to govern us. Why bother when they can simply trade with us for what they want (resources and as a market)?
In my view it is possible to seperate who our major military partnerships are with who our major trading partners. I don’t think it’s necessary to link them and indeed, in my view we should be keeping those considerations quite seperate. The conflation of these has lead to us doubling down on the ‘freedom of navigation’ malarkey in the South China Sea, which is is neither in our security or trade interests.
New Zealand certainly takes a leading role in the South Pacific and arguably has a better relationship with many of the countries in the region than does Australia.
Only if you have your Putin googles on and smoked enough crack cocaine to kill a small horse could one consider the MH17 case ‘murky’, bemused.
Boerwar @ #3944 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 6:34 pm
Itself a nod to Goya.
rhw
La maja desnuda? I have my doubts about that…
A-E
‘I have believed all along that, save for cyber intellegence and counter intellegence, Australian defence policy is largely irrelevant to our retlationship with China.’
It may be irrelevant to you but there are numerous signals from China that is not largely irrelevant to them.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #724 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 6:51 pm
Well I have done none of those things and all I am saying is that the investigation is ongoing with probably more to emerge that will conclusively fill in the finer details.
I have just tweeted this to Georgina Downer. I bet I get blocked on my first attempt to engage.
___
As a voter in Mayo I am interested to see where you stand on anthropogenic global warming. I am also interested in which particular items of the IPA’s manifesto that you now eschew.
This certainly refutes the L/NP & MSM narrative of “Labor soft on people smugglers”:
Thank god for the abc -revealing the truth of the Victorian alp conference. Debates get shut down by John Setka of all people.
Why bother with a conference ?
BK:
If she isn’t willing to engage with voters in Mayo what use is she as a candidate?
Except citizen shorten can’t risk an open debate at the vic alp conference. He’s obviously going to let it rip with the boats if he gets in.
We in Australia definitely need one of these:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/welcome-to-hell-a-history-of-portals-to-the-underworld?ref=home
Boerwar @ #721 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 4:39 pm
That’s a pretty militaristic view of what makes the “free world”. It certainly has nothing to do with my interpretation of the term, and I suspect no-one else’s either.
What makes a nation “free” is its internal structure and institutions, not whether it can beat another nation in a war.
By your definition, Vietnam is the leader of the free world since they kicked America’s ass in the 60s/70s.
For all intents and purposes, Australia is a free nation, yet we’d get our asses kicked if we were to engage in a war with Indonesia.
So, yeah, nah. I’m not buying into the “having a bigger stick than your enemies is what makes a nation free” idea.
But anyway, what makes you think that Americans are freer than Kiwis? I strongly believe that Kiwis as a people are freer than Americans. Certainly Kiwi children are free to got school each day, as well as come home again without the risk of being mowed down by a lunatic in possession of a military grade weapon.
That is my definition of freedom, not having my government waste trillions of dollars on penile compensators.
Australia’s Top 40 Tax Heroes —
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/top-40-tax-heroes/
I have also dropped the question into Downer’s somewhat minimalist Facebook page. No doubt it will get scrubbed.
zoomster:
Were you at the Vic state conference today?
I see another person on Facebook said she’d like to know too.
Dan Gulberry – Merkel and Macron are the leading voices of reason in the West, but I would not describe them as the leaders of the “free world”. That role is currently vacant, which was Putin’s goal in the first place.
He told you that in private?
BK:
I think your earlier assessment of her campaign is correct: minimalist, barely there.
Mumble says she is highly unlikely to be the Lib candidate at the general election if the Libs don’t win the by-election.
If you watch The Big Short, at the conclusion of that accurate depiction there are questions to be asked
In regards the Korean Peninsula, the resolution needs to be between North and South and if that resolution sees the North withdrawing from the arms race and the South telling the USA to go home then so be it
In Victoria and the proposed North West link the Premier has said the proposal will be taken to the next election
The Liberals complain there is not enough detail being made public – noting there is another 6 months until the election
So politics as normal
However in regards the Liberals East West link on the outskirts of the Melbourne CBD, this project was not taken to an election prior to Contracts and Side Letters being signed – and when it was taken to an election the Liberals lost that election which they said was a referendum on the project
The Liberals have their typical hide in regards this matter
And no questions are put to them by media
Labor will present the project and take it to an election
The Liberals signed Contracts and (unknown) Side Letters then invited a vote on it – and lost the election
fess
Alas, no.
I was nominated as a proxy for one of our local delegates, but the nomination was in too late.
(Still could have gone, of course, but other things were going on as well…)
BK @ #729 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 7:08 pm
Very tricky BK, you used some big words there.
BK @ #729 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 5:08 pm
I’ve just taken the liberty of looking over Ms Downer’s candidacy Facebook page and note that almost all of the supporters photographed are elderly or approaching retirement age.
Does the demographic of Mayo skew older than the rest of Australia?
DG
‘That’s a pretty militaristic view of what makes the “free world”. It certainly has nothing to do with my interpretation of the term, and I suspect no-one else’s either.’
Leadership involves power. Power grows out of the barrel of a gun. Putin and Xi would not give a millisecond’s time to the views of Adern. Of course the Australian Greens get a bit of frottage time out of listening to Adern but that just reinforces my main point.
grimace @ #5949 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 7:26 pm
No. They just smell that way.
Edwina StJohn @ #731 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 7:12 pm
I prefer John Setka to any member of the LNP or IPA you care to name.
I have a campaigning question to throw out to my fellow Bludgers.
While I was browsing Ms Downer’s Facebook page I noticed a couple of pictures that implied that Ms Downer was out doorknocking. Do the L/NP in the eastern states engage in the practice at any sort of scale?
The WA Liberals and Nationals don’t have a field campaign worthy of the name and would struggle to knock on one door for every hundred that the Labor’s CAN does even if they attempted it.