By-elections, preselections and Section 44

A round-up of the latest news on by-election and related fronts.

A little extra polling:

• The Australian on Tuesday provided an extra finding from the weekend Newspoll: that opposition to reforming Section 44 has hardened since August, when Barnaby Joyce’s difficulty first emerged. Fifty-one per cent now believe dual citizens should be disqualified from parliament, up seven, with 38% opposed, down five. Forty-six per cent opposed a referendum being held on the matter, with 43% in support.

By-election latest:

• Western Australia’s Darling Range state by-election will be held on June 23. Nathan Hondros of Fairfax reports the Liberal preselection, which will be determined by the party’s state council on Saturday, will be contested by Alyssa Hayden, who unexpectedly lost her upper house seat for East Metropolitan region to One Nation in 2017, and Rob Coales, a police sergeant and Serpentine-Jarrahdale councillor. The early mail was that Coales was favourite, but according to Hondros, it is “understood party powerbrokers are supporting Ms Hayden”.

• David Crowe of Fairfax reports the date for the Super Saturday by-elections could be pushed back to July 7, as the government looks at an Australian Electoral Commission recommendation to implement an online tool for candidates to lodge declarations and supporting documentation, so as to avoid further issues arising from Section 44. This had caused initial plans for a date of June 16 to be scotched, although concerns linger about the electoral impact of an eight-week campaign.

• Speaking of, Michael McKenna of The Australian reports the Liberal National Party preselection for Longman is being held off until next Tuesday to ensure frontrunner Trevor Ruthenberg was able to clear up his own Section 44 issue, arising from his being born in Papua New Guinea.

• Georgia Downer has emerged unopposed for Liberal preselection in Mayo. The Australian reports “ambitious conservative” Michael van Dissel was another potential nominee, but withdrew as it became clear the Right was solid behind Downer. In contrast to the Liberals in WA, Labor will be contested Mayo, despite never having held hte saet before. A Labor source quoted by Philip Coorey said the party believed its preferences could assist Rebekha Sharkie, and that failing to run would suppress the party’s Senate vote at the next election.

• Braddon will again be contested for the Liberals by Brett Whiteley, who held the seat from 2013 until his defeat by Labor’s Justine Keay in 2016, and served in the state seat of Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010. The Burnie Advocate reports former McDonald’s licensee Craig Brakey and Wynyard RSL president Gavin Pearce also contested the state executive vote, but Whiteley was chosen unanimously.

• The Western Australian Liberals’ decision to forfeit the Perth by-election, said to have been instigated by Matthias Cormann, has been widely criticised in the party. Following Tim Hammond’s resignation announcement on May 1, Christian Porter told Sky News Australia the party would “undoubtedly” run, and state Opposition Leader Mike Nahan, who had mocked Labor’s unsurprising decision not to field a candidate in the recent by-election for Colin Barnett’s old seat of Cottesloe, said the by-election was “one we need to contest”.

• The Western Australian Greens have announced their by-elections candidates: Caroline Perks, senior sustainability officer at the City of Perth, in Perth; and Dorinda Cox, domestic violence campaigner and former police officer, in Fremantle.

Other preselection news:

• Jane Prentice’s preselection defeat in her Brisbane seat of Ryan has roused controversy over the lack of gender balance in the Coalition. The winner was Julian Simmonds, a Brisbane councillor who once worked on Prentice’s staff when she herself was on council. Simmons, who is identified with the Right, won a local party ballot by 256 votes to 103 over Prentice, a moderate and early backer of Malcolm Turnbull. Charlie Peel of The Australian reports the vote was “roughly split along traditional party lines, with Nationals backing Ms Prentice”. Critics of the decision include Campbell Newman, Leichhardt MP Warren Entsch and Capricornia MP Michelle Landry.

• Jared Owens of The Australian reports Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan, who respectively hold Queensland Senate seats for the Liberals and the Nationals, face preselection challenges from Scott Emerson, the former state Shadow Treasurer who lost his seat of Maiwar to the Greens last November, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and a member of “one of Queensland’s grazing families”.

• Michael Owen of The Australian reports on a “strong challenge” for Liberal Senate preselection in South Australia from Alex Antic, an Adelaide councillor. This apparently poses a threat to another female Liberal MP, Anne Ruston, who might otherwise be expected to lead the ticket, but not to the mooted number two candidate, David Fawcett. It might also endanger Lucy Gichuhi’s hold on number three, long shot proposition though that may be.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,071 comments on “By-elections, preselections and Section 44”

Comments Page 14 of 22
1 … 13 14 15 … 22

  2. C@t

    Trump’s knowledge of God could undoubtedly fit on the head of a pin just large enough for three letters: G O D. Probably overlaid by MEFIRST.

  3. Interesting to hear Putin say, now that Sergei Skripal has been released from hospital in the UK after being poisoned with Novochok, well, IF he had been poisoned with Novochok he would be dead now. Which I see as a tactical mistake on Putin’s part. It shows to the world that he, Putin, and Russia, know all about Novochok. Also it intimates that they wanted to kill Skripol.

    He would have been better off going with the plausible deniability line…’Who, us!?!’

  5. Also, this from the Paul Kelly article amused me wrt his selective memory:

    …Shorten is an effective and tireless campaigner, as he proved in 2016. Yet there is a record of opposition leaders tarnished with longevity in the job.

    Lazarus with a Triple Bypass, much?

  8. C@tmomma @ #653 Saturday, May 19th, 2018 – 8:14 am

    Interesting to hear Putin say, now that Sergei Skripal has been released from hospital in the UK after being poisoned with Novochok, well, IF he had been poisoned with Novochok he would be dead now. Which I see as a tactical mistake on Putin’s part. It shows to the world that he, Putin, and Russia, know all about Novochok. Also it intimates that they wanted to kill Skripol.

    He would have been better off going with the plausible deniability line…’Who, us!?!’

    Russia invented Novochok – they have never disputed that fact. What they do dispute is that they were behind this attack. When the Soviet Union dissipated the formula for Novochok was sold & disseminated to a number of other labs & countries, including the US.

  10. The Ubertuber is so rich he could easily finance his own campaign, just like Turnbull.

    With his margin slashed at the last election to just 1.6 per cent, left-wing activists have sniffed their opportunity to dispatch their conservative bête noir.

    But the Liberal National Party is digging in to save Mr Dutton, asking the Australian Electoral Commission to redraw the electoral map to his benefit at the expense of surrounding seats and MPs.

    Progressive lobby group GetUp has raised a war chest of almost $225,000 in just one week to be unleashed against Mr Dutton in a campaign of doorknocking, robo-calls and giant billboards.

    “We really see him as a threat to our democracy,” GetUp director Paul Oosting said. “We see his views as very extreme and even at odds with the views of many Coalition voters.”

    …But a confident Mr Dutton told Fairfax Media he had been inundated with support, eliciting commitments of $650,000 to buttress his own campaign since GetUp’s announcement.

    “If GetUp want a fight, they’ll get one,” he said, describing the lobby group as a “front” for the Greens, Labor and the militant Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union. “I don’t intend to lose to GetUp.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/if-getup-want-a-fight-theyll-get-one-peter-dutton-under-siege-in-his-own-seat-20170529-gwfde3.html

  18. As said many a time, a whiteboard is needed to follow the whole Trump saga. He is but one part of this Imbroglio. This is not merely a Russia thing. It involves China, Israel, Qatar, UAE and even connects to the guy who lost the Malaysian election.
    At its very basis,it is all about enriching and consolidating power into the hands of a few.
    For a long time US, UK, and others didn’t mind the huge sums of money being laundered and injected into their economies and banks
    and turned a blind eye to any quid pro quo.
    This latest assault that took place was a step too far. A guided democracy was acceptable to a certain point. Now they are scrambling to basically save any semblance of a democracy.
    This is not just a US problem.
    You only have to look at what has been happening in our own backyard.

  21. zoomster @ #542 Saturday, May 19th, 2018 – 7:57 am

    Another snippet — Georgina has heaps of credibility to burn, I’m sure —

    ‘In the Victorian preselection, she said she had lived in Melbourne for 20 years and had no interest in returning to Adelaide. ‘

    If you listen closely, the sighs of relief from Adelaide are audible, even as far away as Newcastle.

    Tomorrow morning, I understand, the church bells will peal and the good burghers of Adelaide will announce a celebratory art work. This work will take the form of a vacant space representing the dear lady in question.

    ☮

  22. zoomster @ #647 Saturday, May 19th, 2018 – 4:57 am

    Another snippet — Georgina has heaps of credibility to burn, I’m sure —

    ‘In the Victorian preselection, she said she had lived in Melbourne for 20 years and had no interest in returning to Adelaide. ‘

    So far she has admitted to being a vacuous parrot and will say anything to promote her best interests.

    I can see why the Liberals like her!! 🙂

  24. JUST IN: Michael Cohen’s lawyers say that @MichaelAvenatti should not be allowed to represent @StormyDaniels in the dispute over Cohen’s files in NY b/c, they argue, he has “demonstrate[d] his lack of fitness to practice before this court.”

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidner/michael-cohens-lawyers-want-stormy-daniels-lawyer-kept-out?utm_term=.hf1POLMAXz#.vyrgApvxkK

    Andrew C Laufer, Esq‏ @lauferlaw · 57m57 minutes ago

    LOL. Let me translate “ @MichaelAvenatti is kicking our assess so badly we’re begging the Court to order him to stop hurting us. Please, Your Honor, he makes us cry, Bigly…!!!” #basta

  25. I was under the impression the boundary changes in QLD had already been gazetted (as in Tas) with SA, Vic and ACT pending.

    Just checked the AEC QLD was donw on 27 March.

  26. Another day, another mass shooting in the US, and more twisting and turning from gun advocates that gun law reform isn’t needed.

    *sigh*

  28. Today’s Real Time panel. I find Bari Weiss highly annoying (think: a younger Annabel Crabbe), Evan McMullin is the token Republican, but fortunately he’s a never-Trumper so is at least somewhat sensible.

    :large

  29. State of play —

    ACT – boundary changes still under review;

    Victoria – awaiting announcement of final boundaries (so still a couple of steps to go);

    SA – as for Victoria.

    Queensland – finalised.

    Tasmania – finalised.

  31. The Bettota Advocate had an apt headline for this situation that keeps happening in the US ( mass shootings)

    ” We cant keep letting this happen, says only country where it keeps happening”

  36. I went to Art Gallery of NSW to see the Archibald Exhibition yesterday, along with the Lady and The Unicorn tapestries which are extraordinary, and seductive.

    The Archibald was chock a block with Sydneysiders doing their thing.

    Apropros of recent posts I thought this worth reporting. It is a compelling work that was hard to leave.

    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LDo8vhYXV3M/Wv9e6RYZa5I/AAAAAAAAGqQ/QHj-SJQgnlcp-4oquDLF3qQ5VSc8OWuRQCLcBGAs/s1600/fullsizeoutput_32ca.jpeg

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Kic5ZhILTWY/Wv9fe7KPhgI/AAAAAAAAGqY/p2D4IA1WoE4vGXJHRmCkBlrdfS6fISD5ACLcBGAs/s1600/fullsizeoutput_32cb.jpeg

  39. I haven’t seen any news about Turnbull aligning himself with the royal wedding.

    Perhaps it’s because the bride isn’t from the “correct” background for his taste.

    Nor has Abbott called for Harry to be given a knighthood!

  40. phoenixRED @ #685 Saturday, May 19th, 2018 – 6:32 am

    2018 has been deadlier for schoolchildren than service members

    The school shooting near Houston on Friday bolstered a stunning statistic: More people have been killed at schools this year than have been killed while serving in the military.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/05/18/2018-has-been-deadlier-for-schoolchildren-than-service-members/?utm_term=.a75174409b35

    I can see the recruitment poster.

    Want to escape the dangers of school?
    Join the Army!!!

    🙁

  41. Barney:

    The sad thing for me in that video is the interview with a surviving student who said she expected something like that would happen at her school because it’s been happening all over.

  43. C@tmomma @ #23069 Saturday, May 19th, 2018 – 8:14 am

    Interesting to hear Putin say, now that Sergei Skripal has been released from hospital in the UK after being poisoned with Novochok, well, IF he had been poisoned with Novochok he would be dead now. Which I see as a tactical mistake on Putin’s part. It shows to the world that he, Putin, and Russia, know all about Novochok. Also it intimates that they wanted to kill Skripol.

    He would have been better off going with the plausible deniability line…’Who, us!?!’

    Like polonium (and a BUK M3), novichok was deliberately used as an unmistakable signed threat by Putin’s State Oligarchy. The Skripal’s survival is immaterial, as is the gross imprecision of delivery systems and modes, a process that is anathema to military command and control. Putin is a spy turned gangster (like Stalin), not a strategist. If we insist on projecting our “values” onto Russian political reality, we are going to get burned over and over again.

  44. Puesto Loco™‏ @PuestoLoco

    Time to remind America:
    ½ the guns in America are owned by just 3% of the population.
    78% of American adults don’t own a gun.
    Thus, we are held hostage by a very small minority of ODDBALLS, a terrorist organization called NRA and gun manufacturers.

    ARTICLE :

    Three percent of the population own half of the civilian guns in the US

    Do Americans own a lot of guns?

    In both absolute and relative terms, the answer is yes. The US tops the list of countries with the most guns, owning about half the world’s guns while making up only 5% of the world population.

    https://qz.com/1095899/gun-ownership-in-america-in-three-charts/

  45. Confessions @ #691 Saturday, May 19th, 2018 – 6:44 am

    Barney:

    The sad thing for me in that video is the interview with a surviving student who said she expected something like that would happen at her school because it’s been happening all over.

    It’s become the cultural norm and that means expectation and acceptance by many people.

    This makes it more difficult to deal with. 🙁

  46. Most Australians probably think that now we have marriage equality, LGBTI people’s rights are fully respected. Unfortunately, that’s not the case.

    Safe schools rally
    PHOTO: Discrimination against LGBTI people causes staggeringly high rates of mental illness, self-harm and suicide, particularly for young people in our schools. (AAP: Mal Fairclough)
    Many of the remaining areas of discrimination don’t have the same level of visibility as marriage equality — particularly issues affecting trans, gender diverse and intersex people — but that doesn’t make them any less important.

    Following the resounding Yes vote for marriage equality just six months ago, we now have a real window of opportunity for Australia to move forward. We can and should ensure that LGBTI people are treated fairly, and with dignity and respect, under all of our laws.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-17/australia-gay-rights-lgbtqi-same-sex-marriage-human-rights-un/9767166

  47. BK @ #643 Saturday, May 19th, 2018 – 7:44 am

    The SMH editorial bemoans the fact that Sydney is bursting at the seams.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/we-re-bursting-at-the-seams-as-sydney-grows-up-too-fast-20180518-p4zg65.html

    I wish the media wouldn’t use that dipshit Abbott as their “go to” person to quote on this issue …

    One issue this development rush raises is immigration. State governments have little say here but as suburbs are transformed out of recognition to fit in new arrivals, the groundswell of voter rage which is already scaring Macquarie Street MPs is felt in Canberra, too.
    Immigration places heavy demands on both cities and the countryside which supplies them with food. Tony Abbott has already, quite reasonably, raised the issue of immigration. It is a debate we must have.

    Having Abbott on your side always makes you wonder if you could possibly have made a serious mistake somewhere … 🙁

    Still, at least the issue is finally appearing on the radar of voters.

Comments Page 14 of 22
1 … 13 14 15 … 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *