ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

ReachTEL becomes the latest pollster to record movement in favour of the Coalition.

The latest monthly ReachTEL result for Sky News records Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 54-46 a month ago. The Coalition are up two on the primary vote to 36%, Labor is down one to 35%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%. On the forced response preferred prime minister question, Malcolm Turnbull now leads 54.5-45.5, out from 52.3-47.7 last time.

Stay tuned for a post on the by-election that now looms in the seat of Perth, following Tim Hammond’s surprise retirement announcement.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

953 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Fairfax says Patrick Gorman, ALP WA state secretary and member of the left is likely to be a candidate for preselection in Perth

  3. (repeated from previous thread)

    citizen says:
    Wednesday, May 2, 2018 at 5:39 pm
    I’m a bit confused. Is the story about 10,000 scholarships for students from African countries ‘fake news’?

    Shock jock Smith and Poorleen were frantic about it today.

  4. And the usual LNP comment re Patrick Gorman, if the information is correct, “Another Union hack for Labor”…………………………Gee, panic stations! Labor’s lead is now down to 52-48………time for a rethink about Labor leadership…………..Come on down Rex!

  5. The Right and the Left both excoriated Macron with venom – the usual Greens/Reds-reactionary extremes pairing against the middle. For some reason they avoided talking about Macron’s policies when he was running for POTF.

    Along with Merkel, Macron is the key player in the future of Europe, the Brits having dealt themselves out to peripheral issues like the Northern Ireland border.

    This makes Macron probably the fifth or sixth most powerful person in the world.

    So now they are talking about Macron’s taste in women. Deep stuff and quite indicative, IMO.

  7. c
    It looks like someone fed her a line, she repeated it and was then forced to retract it.

    Something about being suckered.

  8. I seldom see the Fin Review but it was in a doctor’s surgery today. The BCA are screaming that they are non-political but those nasty Labor people are attacking them so they need to respond. So sad.

  10. From previous thread:

    Tricot @ #897 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 3:36 pm

    Dan G @ 5.13 pm…………..sorry to disappoint you but you are not the only one in the seat of Perth here.

    While I understand the “more time with the kids” stuff with Hammond, why did he not think of this before he put his hand up for candidate? It is not as if he were some political greenhorn.

    I wish him well, of course, but I wonder if some other candidate, willing to stick it out, might have been the better choice? A. McT certainly managed it and is still at it………………………………..

    Ah, well there you go. I was unaware we were “neighbours” (electorally speaking).

    As far as Mr Hammond should have been aware, perhaps, but until you really try something you have no idea what is actually involved.

    On Allanah, she is a lot more senior than Tim and (without checking) would have children who are grown up and able to fend for themselves. As Roger M pointed out, she only lasted one term in Canberra as well, despite years of experience at being an elected member of parliament.

    Personally, I would like to see Mr Hammond put up his hand for state parliament. He has name recognition, and the toil on his family life would be nowhere near as arduous as it is for a West Australian federal MP.

    We shall see what the future holds for him and the electorate of Perth.

  13. RM………she essentially saved the seat for Labor at the time. A. McT has, and is, a Labor stalwart and deserves all the praise she gets. She knows something about staying power. Smith was an excellent Labor member but the seat is not that certain for Labor and Smith had to depend on Green preferences at more than one election to get across the line.

  16. Dan……….basically am in agreement with you. Our new Governor of the State, big Kimbo, had a marriage break up during his time as LOTO and few of us can really appreciate the strain/sheer grind of frequent hops to and from Canberra. I mean, who would look forward to actually wanting to be in Canberra, especially in winter?

  20. What on earth is the mad monk on about?

    Also “had of stuck” instead of “had’ve stuck” or just “had stuck”?

    Abbott slams banks over their priorities
    5:39PMGREG BROWN
    If banks had of stuck to the subject of banking instead of making political statements they may not be in the mess they are now.

  21. citizen
    somehow failing to reporting massive money laundering and financial services conflicts is the fault of supporting marriage equality. You know it makes sense.

  22. Roger Miller @ #21 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 3:40 pm

    citizen
    somehow failing to reporting massive money laundering and financial services conflicts is the fault of supporting marriage equality. You know it makes sense.

    I’d say supporting ME and sponsorship of sport and the arts were PR exercises to deflect scrutiny of their wrong doings.

  23. Did I just hear Kate Carnell recommending that a stick be taken to the unemployed to encourage them into an underpaid job. How Dickensian.

  26. Some of these questions are the bomb! “Do you support wage theft?”

    ACTU Secretary Sally McManus will visit Cairns on Wednesday to launch the Change the Rules campaign in the region. Ms McManus will address a group of local activists on Wednesday evening at a campaign event, after taking part in the CFMMEU Indigenous conference earlier in the day.
    Ms McManus’ visit comes as issues polling conducted by Reachtel and the ACTU shows broad support for changes that will deliver more secure jobs and fair pay rises for working Australians.
    The polling shows more than 70% support for changes to the law to expand the scope of bargaining, expand access to industrial action as a last resort and stop wage theft and casualisation.
    The polling of the Federal Division of Leichhardt, covering the area from Cairns to Torres Strait, shows:
    62.3% support expanding bargaining to industry or sector levels
    58.4% support making it easier to take industrial action as a last resort
    70.6% want legislative action to stop wage theft
    57.7% support action to reduce casualisation

  28. Player One @ #24 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 6:48 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #22 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 6:46 pm

    I’d say supporting ME and sponsorship of sport and the arts were PR exercises to deflect scrutiny of their wrong doings.

    I’d say you’d be right!

    Maybe they should just let Big Tobacco back in to the advertising business. All the Tobacco Companies want to do is kill you. The Banks want to bleed you dry, send you to the poorhouse and then charge you consultancy fees after you are dead for their erudite advice!

  29. mikehilliard says:
    Wednesday, May 2, 2018 at 6:48 pm
    Did I just hear Kate Carnell recommending that a stick be taken to the unemployed to encourage them into an underpaid job. How Dickensian.

    Carnell is the perfect example of the link between the LNP and business. She is a former Liberal chief minister in the ACT who was booted out of office, then headed a few business lobby groups and appointed by Turnbull to her present job of small business ombudsman.

    Instead of properly tackling big business over their treatment of small business, she sinks the boot into those employed by small business.

  31. So Mirabella wins her defamation case? I doubt it matters in the scheme of things – the testimonies of her behaviour that came out in court proceedings were just eyebrow raising in their pettiness and bitterness.

  32. Greensborough Growler @ #28 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 6:57 pm

    Maybe they should just let Big Tobacco back in to the advertising business. All the Tobacco Companies want to do is kill you. The Banks want to bleed you dry, send you to the poorhouse and then charge you consultancy fees after you are dead for their erudite advice!

    I suppose the banks at least allow you the illusion that you are well off before they kill you 🙁

  33. Some of the Macron visit photos are compelling. In this one, JulieB’s partner/not a partner Monsieur Pantsdown gets to stand in the meet ‘n greet line up…

  35. In this one, JulieB’s partner/not a partner Monsieur Pantsdown gets to stand in the meet ‘n greet line up…

    Has anyone checked whether he’s officially on the govt payroll? He seems omnipresent at all these types of things.

  39. Davidwh @ #34 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 7:06 pm

    I know GG. It’s what people do when they don’t like the real news in the hope false will become real.

    Actually, it was me showing scepticism about a (what I thought might be legitimate) anti-meme. Once ghost clarified it was obvious. This is why I said it was strange.

  40. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, May 2, 2018 at 7:04 pm

    Some of the Macron visit photos are compelling. In this one, JulieB’s partner/not a partner Monsieur Pantsdown gets to stand in the meet ‘n greet line up…

    (This isn’t addressed specifically to Sprocket) In that picture, is that JBishop next to her partner/not partner? Her hair style looks similar to the one “sported” by Senator Cash. Or are my eyes playing up?

  41. “What on earth is the mad monk on about?”

    My guess is he’s probably in the same orbit as Miranda Devine, who in an article linked here last week said the banks got into trouble because they were too busy making statements about same sex marriage, addressing climate change, Indigenous recognition and other stuff she disdains. They’ve also made lots of statements regarding the “need” to cut corporate tax and in opposition to a banking Royal Commission, but I don’t think she had a problem with those.

  43. “…In that picture, is that JBishop next to her partner/not partner? Her hair style looks similar to the one “sported” by Senator Cash. Or are my eyes playing up?”

    You’re eyes are OK, it’s the same style. Maybe they go to the same salon.

  44. As much as we might dislike Mirabella and all she stands it seems to me that when most of the evidence ( as reported and I was not there) was the she did not, as alleged by the newspaper, push McGowan out of the way it shouldn’t be surprising that she succeeded in her suit.

  46. And while we are on unelected hangers on the meet ‘n greet with French Presidents, who can forget this faux pas?

  47. Confessions, Steve777,

    Thanks.

    [Steve777, like the “alias”. Love the sound of the big RRs as they wind up. The buzz-saw effect.]

  48. Rossmcg. @ #44 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 7:27 pm

    As much as we might dislike Mirabella and all she stands it seems to me that when most of the evidence ( as reported and I was not there) was the she did not, as alleged by the newspaper, push McGowan out of the way it shouldn’t be surprising that she succeeded in her suit.

    The defendants had actually apologised for the mistake. Pushing it to Court after that is just a desire to keep it in the public space and extract maximum money.Tthe payout might be the big surprise.

    I reckon it makes a political comeback problematical. No one wants a mouthy abuser being fragile about return fire. Basically, she’s the Bemused of the Liberal Party!

  49. There’s little doubt Mirabella was defamed. The question is how much she gets in damages – it will be interesting to see what her reputation is worth.

  50. Rossmcg. @ #44 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 5:27 pm

    As much as we might dislike Mirabella and all she stands it seems to me that when most of the evidence ( as reported and I was not there) was the she did not, as alleged by the newspaper, push McGowan out of the way it shouldn’t be surprising that she succeeded in her suit.

    Yes but the irony is that in suing the paper all this other unflattering stuff came out about her. I’d bet London to a brick nobody remembers the specific use of the word ‘push’, so why go to all that effort, and expose all the other stuff coming out just for the sake of having an apology?

    It’s very petty.

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