ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

ReachTEL becomes the latest pollster to record movement in favour of the Coalition.

The latest monthly ReachTEL result for Sky News records Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 54-46 a month ago. The Coalition are up two on the primary vote to 36%, Labor is down one to 35%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%. On the forced response preferred prime minister question, Malcolm Turnbull now leads 54.5-45.5, out from 52.3-47.7 last time.

Stay tuned for a post on the by-election that now looms in the seat of Perth, following Tim Hammond’s surprise retirement announcement.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

953 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 20
1 2 3 … 20

  2. fess

    ‘…so why go to all that effort, and expose all the other stuff coming out just for the sake of having an apology?’

    Because Mirabella is still proving to herself that she SHOULD have won the election and was robbed.

    Firstly, she blamed the National voters for not following the HTV – and the local Nats for not insisting that they do.

    Now, it’ll be “Cathy knew this was untrue and let it go, this shows she’s a Bad Person and if she hadn’t done that, I’d have won.”

    Every possibility, therefore, she’ll put her hand up for Indi again…

  4. Back onto polling, isn’t it odd that the ReachTEL primaries add up to 87? Where are the other 13?

    #ReachTEL Poll Fed TPP L/NP 48 (+2) ALP 52 (-2)
    Primary L/NP 36 (+2) ALP 35 (-1) GRN 10 (0) ON 6 (-1)

  8. Steve777 @ #43 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 4:25 pm

    “…In that picture, is that JBishop next to her partner/not partner? Her hair style looks similar to the one “sported” by Senator Cash. Or are my eyes playing up?”

    You’re eyes are OK, it’s the same style. Maybe they go to the same salon.

    When ever I see Cash I’m reminded of the girls here who sometimes walk around wearing their motorbike helmets.

    Now it will happen with Bishop! 🙁

  10. Every possibility, therefore, she’ll put her hand up for Indi again…

    Surely that ship has sailed and the Liberal party would want someone fresher with more voter appeal?

  12. Interesting what ads come up here

    https://www.googleadservices.com/pagead/aclk?sa=L&ai=CJSftV4rpWoLWDJa7qAGhlJKgCd3J4rxRy4S7_4AHrQIQASDe6-ADYKX4kYCQAaABlKO4uQPIAQKoAwHIA8kEqgTTAU_Q9OUH7nbnUIdLpUDyXEg0i1iJOgxcm-SP_f6hoQE6Kl8OOHk9cQSZ2VTayWJZkMDNKnLwDFZg9O_r5R84eRtswhIK0ja2SCfbAuVSHb0MKETvY5Lr76sq24njocLLkCykB5S7is8we-PmDwunGa5jvRzjEkZI554A_Z3k6W5yg_NrlKVed9tXsh9TQZipzbihT_kU1FqEVSLUcjpADQGmKSZDGUcaDW2-Ez8Yq-xy2pXKV6gukxjWA9lF1JhQS87ky-C_gmD-vAHi4CAx4BjlPH7ABIz8-LrRAYgFk6e4iwWgBgLYBgKAB-GZ4HOoB47OG6gH1ckbqAf3zBuoB6a-G9gHAaAI_tipBLAIAtIIBwiAYRABGAKxCSqMImLDc_8ogAoB2BMMghQVGhN3d3cucG9sbGJsdWRnZXIubmV0&num=1&cid=CAASEuRofxmjznhmD6hBlAc2VCS-3w&sig=AOD64_2MqtN7m33trF1tVjITiKoj8zNQMA&client=ca-pub-3201847171074721&adurl=https://www.dresslily.com/shirts-c-175.html%3Frecommend%3D14686%26lkid%3D1886120

  15. “Interesting what ads come up here”

    That ad’s been following me here. I haven’t worn a shirt anything like those since the ’70s when it would have blended in.

    P.S. Maybe Malcom should have bought his colourful shirt for serving in a soup kitchen there – $26 instead of $850.

  16. An indication there could be further charges to come?

    Katelyn PolantzVerified account@kpolantz
    13h13 hours ago
    “Due to the status of the Special Counsel’s investigation,” Robert Mueller doesn’t want Michael Flynn’s sentencing date to be set until after June.

    :large

  17. The critical question is “How would you like to wake up in the morning and find Mirrabella, Cash, Bishop or O’Dwyer next to you?”

    Either gender!

    So female or male

  20. Steve777

    Maybe Malcom should have bought his colourful shirt for serving in a soup kitchen there – $26 instead of $850.

    Yes, there’s some fetching ensembles there that look right up Mals alley.
    I wonder if they throw in sunnies to complete the look?

  22. sprocket_, this is a more or less constant problem with Sky News ReachTELs. The 13 is Others plus “undecided”. Undecided in ReachTEL parlance are voters who initially choose the undecided option but then on the second (forced) prompt pick a party. Other pollsters just include these in the headline figure.

    The original poll reports would have the correct primaries to one decimal, the correct Others figure, the figure for “undecided” and a breakdown of “undecided” by party. Sky are throwing away all this lovely data. Quite a shame.

  23. “It isn’t Probyn’s feelings, or some quaint article of faith, or a reflection of secret communism. It’s about as controversial as noting that the sky is blue on a sunny day.”

    Tony Abbott is destructive and Andrew Probyn reported the fact.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2018/may/02/andrew-probyn-was-right-about-abbott-and-impartiality-isnt-ignoring-the-facts

    P.S. since I clicked on that shirt ad, it’s followed by to the Guardian, the Canberra Times, Weather sites.

  26. No wonder the ABC feels browbeaten, this was Abbott on 2GB (and, as if any 2GB announcers ever apologise for saying much worse things about politicians, like, say, Julia Gillard):

    “Now I’m not asking for an apology … because I’m not that kind of a person, but given the chronic bias in the ABC, given the incorrigible left-liberal cultural position the ABC adopts, you’d think if they wanted to encourage people to have a bit of faith in them, the very least they would do when such a finding has been made against them in respect of a conservative politician, is apologise,” the former prime minister said.

  27. Whoops! Which bank?

    “The Commonwealth Bank lost the personal financial histories of 12 million customers, and chose not to reveal the breach to consumers, in one of the largest financial services privacy breaches ever to occur in Australia.

    BuzzFeed News can reveal that the nation’s largest bank lost the banking statements for customers from 2004 to 2014 after a subcontractor lost several tape drives containing the financial information in 2016.

    While the bank initially notified the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner (OAIC) of the breach shortly after it became aware of it in 2016, a spokeswoman for the OAIC told BuzzFeed News it was now making further inquiries into the privacy breach, following a damning report into the bank’s culture released on Tuesday.‘

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/paulfarrell/australias-largest-bank-lost-the-personal-financial?utm_term=.tiLO1JYqK#.qyZjG54Jz

  28. after a subcontractor lost several tape drives containing the financial information in 2016.

    Tape drives!!? What the hell!!? Are they amateurs!?

  30. BuzzFeed News can reveal that the nation’s largest bank lost the banking statements for customers from 2004 to 2014 after a subcontractor lost several tape drives containing the financial information in 2016.

    Wow I wonder if I was affected by this, being CBA customer circa 2006.

  31. What is a tape drive? Is that something like a the ticker tape they used to throw out of windows at a passing parade?

  33. As far as Mr Hammond should have been aware, perhaps, but until you really try something you have no idea what is actually involved.

    Maybe one of his young children has a disability? Many don’t manifest until it become clear developmental goals are not being reached.

    I’m just speculating. There’s a lot we don’t know about anyone’s personal life, and moreover, Hamming may not have been able to foresee some of the developments either.

  34. Steve777
    re Commonwealth Bank

    Doesn’t it have a disaster recovery process?

    For some unknown reason I find that sentence hilariously funny.

  35. You outsource to a contractor, it becomes the contractor’s responsibility. But still, pretty shoddy all round.

    Well I’m not hiring you as CIO for my next startup!!

  36. Maybe one of his young children has a disability? Many don’t manifest until it become clear developmental goals are not being reached.

    All of his children are aged 6 and under, including a 6mth old baby and a two year old toddler. The baby alone would make it rough on his partner him being away, without the needs of the other kids thrown in the mix.

    Tough choice given he was only recently elected, but I can understand him prioritising his family.

  38. LU
    Suggesting that one of Hammond’s children may have a disability is jumping the shark.

    Everybody is different. He loves his kids and doesn’t like being away from them. Unlike the infamous Barnaby Joyce who it is reported was rarely home.

    I guess it is a sign of how bad politics is when some of us can’t take anything a politician says, even personal stuff like family matters, at face value.

    Bit sad really.

  39. I remember a Liberal MP under Howard resigning for much the same reasons. He was apparently reading one his kids a bedtime story over the phone and thought that that was silly, he should really be there in person.

  41. Hammond should have stayed on until the next election, a matter of a year or so away at the most.

    We all have to accept realities that were not anticipated or appreciated from time to time.

    Nothing that has been said does anything but raise speculation about “the real reason” whatever that may or may not be.

  42. “Doesn’t it have a disaster recovery process?

    For some unknown reason I find that sentence hilariously funny.”

    I think their recovery plan from their current self-inflicted disaster is to offer a few sacrificial lambs, pay a nominal fine, sincerely promise never to do it again and lay low for a year or so. Then back to business as usual.

    I don’t know whether they have a disaster recovery plan for their friends losing Federal office.

    But seriously, every organisation needs a disaster recovery plan for their records. A bank should be able to recovery from the destruction of its records and IT assets through accident, misadventure, criminal acts, terrorism or natural disaster within a few days. Data should be backed up off-site, with an alternative installation available that they can use to resume business.

  43. But seriously, every organisation needs a disaster recovery plan for their records.

    And they obviously never thought to ensure contractors acting on their behalf had one either.

  45. Sounds to me as if the newspaper made a settlement offer to Sophie that she rejected. If she doesn’t beat that offer, she may well be paying THEIR costs. This may be a Pyrrhic victory for her.

  47. Davidwh @ #87 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 9:52 pm

    Tape drive back-up was pretty common in the naughtiest. However they should have converted these by 2014.

    Tape drives have been around for ever with mainframe systems and just when their demise is predicted they get better with higher data density.
    A while since I have had anything to do with them, but I expect they will be around for a while yet.

  48. Hi Ross,
    I’m not suggesting it. I’m responding to the argument that he should stay the term or should have known better. There are some things that you cannot know before you make a decision. Perhaps disability was an extreme example.

    Hammond has my full respect and understanding. Good luck to him. He was doing a job I couldn’t do. Hell, my wife gets the irrates when I go interstate for a night or two, and that only happens 3 or 4 times a year!

  49. ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #95 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 10:31 pm

    Sounds to me as if the newspaper made a settlement offer to Sophie that she rejected. If she doesn’t beat that offer, she may well be paying THEIR costs. This may be a Pyrrhic victory for her.

    I thought what was revealed was as bad or worse than what she was falsely accused of.
    So her reputation may not be deemed to have been worth very much and her damages award assessed accordingly. I estimate at least a dollar.

  50. Agree Bemused but an organization like the CBA should be using offsite digital storage. It’s more reliable and affordable these days.

Comments Page 2 of 20
1 2 3 … 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *