Federal preselection round-up

A round-up of recent federal preselection news, as the Prime Minister asks his party’s state branches to get a move on.

With the fortnightly cycles of Newspoll and Essential Research in sync for the time being, we would appear to be in another off week for federal polling (although ReachTEL are about due to come through, perhaps at the end of the week). However, there is a fair bit of preselection news to report, with Malcolm Turnbull having told the state party branches to get candidates in place sooner rather than later. That might appear to suggest he at least wishes to keep his options open for an early election, although betting markets rate that a long shot, with Ladbrokes offering $1.14 on an election next year and only $5 for this year.

• With the creation of a third seat in the Australian Capital Territory, the Canberra Times reports the member for Canberra, Gai Brodtmann, will contest the seat of Bean – new in theory, but in reality the seat that corresponds most closely with her existing seat – while Andrew Leigh will remain in Fenner. The ACT Chief Minister, Andrew Barr, said he contemplated running in the Canberra electorate “maybe for a moment”. The other name mentioned is Kel Watt, “a member of ACT Labor’s right faction and lobbyist for the Canberra Greyhound Racing”.

• The Courier-Mail reported a fortnight ago that Jane Prentice, Liberal National Party member for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, is likely to lose preselection to Julian Simmonds, a Brisbane councillor and former staffer to both Prentice and her predecessor, Michael Johnson. Despite Prentice being a moderate and a Turnbull supporter, the move against her has reportedly “outraged” Campbell Newman.

• Elections for administrative positions in the Victorian Liberal Party have seen Michael Kroger easily face down a challenge to his position as president, and conservative young turk Marcus Bastiaan much strengthened, including through his own election to a vice-president position. The Australian reports Bastiaan is “largely regarded as Mr Kroger’s numbers man”, but his use of his new influence to cancel an early Senate preselection process suggests the situation may be more complex than that. According to James Campbell of the Herald Sun, the preselections had been initiated at the behest of Kroger, consistent with Malcolm Turnbull’s aforementioned call for them to be handled expeditiously. The report further says Bastiaan’s determination to delay proceedings suggests a threat to James Patterson or Jane Hume, the two Senators who will face re-election at the next election. However, a report by Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review suggest the bigger threat from the conservative ascendancy is likely to be faced by factional moderates in the state parliament.

• The Toowoomba Chronicle reports John McVeigh, the Liberal National Party member for Groom, has easily seen off a preselection challenge by Isaac Moody, business manager of Gabbinbar Homestead. Moody accused McVeigh of having “betrayed” his constituents by voting yes in the same-sex marriage plebiscite (49.2% of those constituents did the same).

• The Clarence Valley Daily Examiner reports Labor’s preselection for the north coast New South Wales seat of Page will be contested by Isaac Smith, the mayor of Lismore, and Patrick Deegan, who works for a domestic violence support service. Page has been held for the Nationals since 2013 by Kevin Hogan, whose margin after the 2016 election was 2.3%. Smith is backed by Janelle Saffin, who held the seat for Labor from 2007 to 2013 and is now the preselected candidate for the state seat of Lismore.

• The Townsville Bulletin reports that Ewen Jones, who lost the seat of Herbert to Labor’s Cathy O’Toole in 2016 by 37 votes, has again nominated for Liberal National Party preselection in the Townsville-based seat of Herbert.

• The Courier-Mail reported a fortnight ago that George Christensen might face a preselection challenge for his north Queensland seat of Dawson from Jason Costigan, member for the state seat of Whitsunday, but Costigan announced a few days later that he had chosen not to proceed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

907 comments on “Federal preselection round-up”

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  1. Anna Bligh, by Shakespeare

    Anna Bligh’s eyes are nothing like the sun;
    Coral is far more red than her lips’ red;
    If snow be white, why then her breasts are dun;
    If hairs be wires, black wires grow on her head.
    I have seen roses damask’d, red and white,
    But no such roses see I in her cheeks;
    And in some perfumes is there more delight
    Than in the breath that from Ms Bligh reeks.

    (Sonnet 130)

  2. dtt Full time undergraduate degrees for Australian citizens are $9,500 per annum at Uni of Sydney, less elsewhere, not $25,000. I gave you the link. Its easy to use.

  3. daretotread

    very interesting – all figures see too tough for youngie folks

    i;m a bit of a euro – saunders advocate

    all free
    (with discount food too)
    easier to calculate

  4. hope to RC goes on and on

    has anna no shame – she should resign, or face conviction

    put her on the stand not on 7.30

  5. Yabba

    Actually $10,750 at UQ.

    Not that it makes much difference to the figures. Difference drops from $150,000 to $110,000 in net savings for the girl who gets work Also I was working on a three year course wheras nearly all are now 4 years.

  6. dtt.

    Over their life, on average, a Uni graduate will pay much more tax than a non-graduate.

    In fact the difference is multiple times more than the cost of their degree.

  7. GG, as I wrote, well done. It is very interesting to note that it’s taken you 2 years. That’s what the surgeon told Mrs ag0044 to expect, roughly. No quick fix. And, once she’s got both her knees fixed, we can go dancing … if I could dance.

    Grimace, thanks for the sweepstake listing.

  8. A real problem having Anna Bligh in such a key position. She would know a bit about what’s going on. Try to avoid a sensitive issue and she might give her old mates the heads up.

    Who knows, she might have suggested the Banks ask for the RC!!!.

    What acceptable reason could you give for moving her on. Her friends should be saying ‘GoAnna’

  9. Don’t ever think that the culture now APRA has turned the light on in regards the CBA is restricted to just the CBA – or just the “Big 4” or just to the Banking Industry

    It is the culture of significant businesss

    This is the demographic one man’s pay rise is another man’s job, the most effective form of regulation is self regulation, this government and trickle down economics comes from

    There is not only a job to be done by the RC and the RBA, there is a job to be done by voters

  10. It’s funny how APRA has just now noticed that something was not quite right. What has it been doing for the last couple of decades?
    It’s not just bank execs & boards that need culling.

  11. It will be 🙂 if/when some of this money is found to be stuffed into a company Truffles’ is using to stuff his money in.

    “Anti-corruption campaigners hail ‘huge win’ as government caves in over dirty money hidden in UK tax havens

    Names of super-rich who launder funds in British Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands will be revealed, in ‘humiliating climbdown’

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-tax-havens-dirty-money-corruption-theresa-may-bvi-cayman-islands-a8331311.html

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Adele Ferguson doesn’t mince words with this assessment of APRA’s report in the CBA.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-a-money-blinded-mates-club-with-too-many-snouts-in-the-trough-20180501-p4zcpp.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz says that CBA’s damning report is a must read for any business leader.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-s-damning-report-is-a-must-read-for-any-business-leader-20180501-p4zclg.html
    Adam Creighton has his say on the report.
    https://outline.com/Sa4sBS
    Wayne Byres, the chairman of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, attended a meeting of the Commonwealth Bank board just before Christmas in 2015 and delivered an unequivocal message: your success has made you arrogant.
    https://outline.com/4BmFMq
    Clancy Yeates explains why a $1 billion whack won’t hurt Commonwealth Bank.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/why-a-1-billion-whack-won-t-hurt-commonwealth-bank-20180501-p4zcqb.html
    The Australian tells us that The Greens’ march to the uber left will continue today with the party to unveil a policy that would cap the amount of money an Australian arm of a multinational company can borrow from its international operations.
    https://outline.com/3f7rjt
    Michelle Bachelard tells us how the big for-profit nursing home companies are using the same “tricks and schemes” as tech giants to minimise the amount of tax they pay, even though the vast majority of their funding comes from the public purse.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/big-nursing-home-industry-is-aggressively-minimising-tax-20180501-p4zcq9.html
    The Tax Office began contacting 106 Australian private clients of Credit Suisse on Tuesday over $900 million in suspicious transactions linked to secret numbered accounts. Good!
    https://outline.com/rNmDfb
    Michael West weighs in on these egregious practices.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/six-top-aged-care-operators-reap-2-billion-from-taxpayers-pay-little-tax/
    Latika Bourke reports that Turnbull may be pushing for a constitutional change with respect to eligibility to sit in parliament.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-turnbull-to-receive-report-on-whether-to-hold-a-referendum-on-dual-citizenship-20180430-p4zck3.html
    Paul Bongiorno reckons that Turnbull and Morrison will be relying on voter amnesia to sell the next budget.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/04/30/counting-voter-amnesia-sell-budget/
    Mark Zuckerberg has been threatened with a legal summons unless he fronts a British parliamentary committee to answer questions about the social network’s safeguarding of user data, as well as allegations of Russian interference in the Brexit vote.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/british-mps-send-ultimatum-to-mark-zuckerberg-face-us-or-face-a-summons-20180502-p4zcrv.html
    On the face of it Mark “Bomber” Thompson is going down for quite a spell.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/afl-great-mark-bomber-thompson-to-face-court-over-drug-charges-20180501-p4zcpg.html
    A cynical Ross Gittins writes about the election beginning his article with, “Did you hear the news? It’s a budget miracle. Remember all the worry about debt and deficit? Gone. Not a problem. Disappeared. Or, better word – evaporated.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/ross-gittins-tax-cut-election-war-20180501-p4zcma.html
    David Gonski says that we need to recommit to improving teacher skills.
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/gonski-we-need-to-recommit-to-improving-teacher-skills-20180501-p4zcpf.html
    Jack Latimore says the Captain Cook statue is a warm-up for a populist election campaign.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/01/the-captain-cook-statue-is-a-warm-up-for-a-populist-election-campaign
    Here’s some good advice for small business owners.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/maccathmhaoil-cut-costs-business-mistakes-waster-20180501-p4zcql.html
    A Co-founder of the BCA gets all defensive over it being criticised for running advertisements to promote its policy recommendations to the public in pursuit of tax reform.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/business-council-is-not-a-de-facto-mouthpiece-for-liberal-party-20180501-p4zcqv.html
    Phil Coorey on the BCA’s posturing on Labor.
    https://outline.com/Y7RYSa
    Michelle Grattan also writes about it.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-the-waves-of-reputational-damage-spread-far-and-wide-95889
    Amy Remeikis has a good look at the current BCA/Labor stoush.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/02/business-council-accused-of-building-26m-election-war-chest
    Fergus Hunter warns that Australians will be bombarded with political propaganda ahead of the next federal election as big business, unions and grassroots activist groups plough tens of millions of dollars towards influencing the high-stakes contest.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/prepare-to-be-bombarded-with-political-propaganda-ahead-of-a-high-stakes-election-20180501-p4zcok.html
    Nicholas Stuart writes about the concept of value creation.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/the-economy/who-s-creating-the-value-here-20180501-p4zcmf.html
    Stephen Koukoulas examines what China’s role in the federal budget might be.
    https://thekouk.com/item/598-china-s-role-in-the-upcoming-federal-budget.html
    Labor has called for the government to meet its own deadline by declaring which departments or agencies would be moved to regional areas in next week’s budget.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/labor-calls-on-government-to-end-decentralisation-smoke-and-mirrors-20180430-p4zci2.html
    Dutton and Bishop are at odds over enhanced powers for the big spying agency.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/05/01/peter-dutton-asd-spying-australians/
    The SMH editorial is concerned that while the spectacular misdeeds of banks and other financial institutions may be fuelling dinner conversations across the nation, it is the issue of shady, shonky and plain unnecessary development that is the real barbecue-stopper in Sydney.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-s-growing-pains-get-worse-20180501-p4zcp8.html
    Bikie gangs are such lovely types!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/four-finks-bikies-arrested-over-alleged-kidnapping-20180501-p4zcnw.html
    George Pell’s life of extremes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/four-finks-bikies-arrested-over-alleged-kidnapping-20180501-p4zcnw.html
    Australia’s shared sense of prosperity is diminished by sustained low wage growth, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has warned, as the Coalition and Labor prepare to make the issue a key policy test of the May budget.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/low-wage-growth-diminishes-our-shared-prosperity-rba-governor-philip-lowe-20180501-p4zcob.html
    One of Australia’s foremost lawyers has issued an extraordinary warning that the Murray-Darling basin plan is likely to be unlawful because the authority overseeing it made a fundamental legal error when it set the original 2,750-gigalitre water recovery target in 2012.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/02/murray-darling-basin-plan-likely-to-be-unlawful-leading-qc-warns
    Two of the country’s leading educators argue David Gonski’s review of schooling stops short of the seismic changes needed to bring Australia into the 21st century and rescue vocational education from its “second-class” status.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pretty-damn-critical-education-experts-urge-big-business-to-step-into-the-classroom-20180501-p4zcnk.html
    Not a good day in court for the lovely Ms Mirabella yesterday.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/no-push-says-mcgowan-but-she-tells-court-mirabella-impeded-minister-20180501-p4zcp3.html
    Australia has just sweated through its hottest April (for mean temperatures) since climate records began, with top temps shattered around the nation, particularly in South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria.
    https://newmatilda.com/2018/05/01/april-2018-australias-hottest-record-courtesy-exceptional-heat/
    The countdown has begun – in less than two months free plastic carry bags in supermarkets will be a thing of the past.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/your-budget/2018/05/01/plastic-bags-ban-supermarkets/
    Genuine competition is a wonderful thing for consumers, so it’s been heartening to see a lot more of that in Australia’s supermarkets.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/05/01/three-cheers-aldi-kaufland/

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and Morrison’s company tax cuts.

    Peter Broelman nicely rebrands AMP.

    Paul Zanetti grooms a possible Nobel Peace Prize aspirant.

    Glen Le Lievre with a surprise witness.

    A couple here from Mark Knight.

    Quite a few good ones here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-may-2-2018-20180501-h0zi2u.html

  13. dtt

    ‘This is the rub. the graduate stating salaries are at best $10,000 ahead of those for high school only employees and after 10 years the differences wash out anyway.’

    Except there is a wealth of analysis which shows this isn’t true.

    For starters, you cheat by giving one sister above award wages, a permanent job and promotions. There might be the exceptional case where this happens, but in real life, Jenny would have been out of work once the maternity leave position was up, and pipped at the post in anything else she went for – short of cleaning or waitressing – by people with degrees.

    You also ‘cheat’ by starting of the Uni student with a debt. She has one, yes, but she doesn’t have to repay a cent of it until she is earning over $55,000 a year.

    I could hypothesise that, since the twins’ abilities were equal, Jane on graduation was given exactly the same dream run Jenny was – so she would also be paid an above average wage, get early promotions, and thus absolutely blitz her twin within a few years.

    Of course, the beauty of hypothesising is that you can rig the game to get the outcome you want.

    Which, again, is why it’s better to look at evidence —

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/graduate-salary-peak-is-higher-later-than-nontertiary-educated/news-story/ce6fc7282c0ca4d098e642824e7f8e6a

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-24/uni-graduates-likely-to-earn-one-million-more-over-lifetime/4330506

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-29/pyne-graduate-earnings-and-unemployment-claim-overblown/5446462 (which still finds that University graduates are less likely to be unemployed and to earn more over their lifetimes).

    Of course there are exceptions. But, overall, someone with a University education is less likely to be unemployed and will earn more over their lifetime (around $1 million, a good return on an investment of $25k) than a non- graduate.

  14. Observer @ #513 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 7:20 am

    Don’t ever think that the culture now APRA has turned the light on in regards the CBA is restricted to just the CBA – or just the “Big 4” or just to the Banking Industry

    It is the culture of significant businesss

    This is the demographic one man’s pay rise is another man’s job, the most effective form of regulation is self regulation, this government and trickle down economics comes from

    There is not only a job to be done by the RC and the RBA, there is a job to be done by voters

    In my naivete I asked Wayne Swan last night whether the exposure of the banks and other financial institutions by the RC and APRA will produce the change away from Friedmanesque economics pursued by most boards and companies that sees profit put before the common weal of customers and the country?

    He said, ‘No’. In fact, his opinion was that they won’t be happy until they get their Randian universe of no government and no taxes! 🙁

  15. ‘You also ‘cheat’ by starting of the Uni student with a debt. She has one, yes, but she doesn’t have to repay a cent of it until she is earning over $55,000 a year.’

    Changed horses on this one in midstream, so this doesn’t quite say what I originally intended.

    She doesn’t START with a debt of $25k; she acquires this over four years. Whereas dtt has her with a $25k debt in Year One, when her debt (after completing the year) would be around $6k. If she dropped out after six months, her debt would have been half that.

  16. Tut, tut, Crikey Worm (I’ve forgotten what this error is called, if I ever knew.) 🙂

    The BBC reports that the seventh-month joey was found by hikers beside its dead mother, who brought it to their local vet.

  17. More McGowan testimony:

    ‘She said she did not believe Mrs Mirabella’s reputation had been damaged by the story.

    Ms Schott told the court an article in The Guardian claimed Mrs Mirabella “aggressively blocked” a photo opportunity.

    “You said that Mrs Mirabella’s conduct had been aggressive, rude and disrespectful,” she said.

    Ms McGowan said she did not recall, but could not deny, doing the interview however she agreed with the words.’

    https://www.bordermail.com.au/story/5374397/cathy-tells-court-of-very-embarrassing-situation-with-sophie/?cs=11

  18. ‘Business Council of Australia chief executive Jennifer Westacott said the Gonski 2.0 proposals would create “the real culture change” big business was looking for in schools. She said it was “vital” schools and industry worked together to make students work-ready, and the business community “stands ready to play an active role”.’

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/pretty-damn-critical-education-experts-urge-big-business-to-step-into-the-classroom-20180501-p4zcnk.html

    Firstly, the business community could play an active role in this right now, if it wanted to. No one’s stopping it, for starters, employing apprentices and taking on trainees.

    Secondly, the reason why we need to make students learners rather than widgets is that the jobs we’d be training them for now may not exist in a couple of decades, and jobs we haven’t even conceived of yet will.

    This is exactly what Singapore recognised – having your focus on high academic achievement by itself does not create the flexible workforce needed in the 21st century.

  19. zoomster @ #523 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 7:39 am

    dtt

    ‘This is the rub. the graduate stating salaries are at best $10,000 ahead of those for high school only employees and after 10 years the differences wash out anyway.’

    Except there is a wealth of analysis which shows this isn’t true.

    For starters, you cheat by giving one sister above award wages, a permanent job and promotions. There might be the exceptional case where this happens, but in real life, Jenny would have been out of work once the maternity leave position was up, and pipped at the post in anything else she went for – short of cleaning or waitressing – by people with degrees.

    You also ‘cheat’ by starting of the Uni student with a debt. She has one, yes, but she doesn’t have to repay a cent of it until she is earning over $55,000 a year.

    I could hypothesise that, since the twins’ abilities were equal, Jane on graduation was given exactly the same dream run Jenny was – so she would also be paid an above average wage, get early promotions, and thus absolutely blitz her twin within a few years.

    Of course, the beauty of hypothesising is that you can rig the game to get the outcome you want.

    Which, again, is why it’s better to look at evidence —

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/graduate-salary-peak-is-higher-later-than-nontertiary-educated/news-story/ce6fc7282c0ca4d098e642824e7f8e6a

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-24/uni-graduates-likely-to-earn-one-million-more-over-lifetime/4330506

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-29/pyne-graduate-earnings-and-unemployment-claim-overblown/5446462 (which still finds that University graduates are less likely to be unemployed and to earn more over their lifetimes).

    Of course there are exceptions. But, overall, someone with a University education is less likely to be unemployed and will earn more over their lifetime (around $1 million, a good return on an investment of $25k) than a non- graduate.

    That is the theory and it is why kids still go to uni but i am not sure it is the reality. As I say at UQ a three year degree in business will cost you $33,000.

    I think my whole argument is predicated on the assumption that Jane gets a full time job. She would not have deferred if that were the case. She would then end up just a little ahead of her sister. The base clerical salary is $44,000 so my estimate of $50 was quite close. Given that the company wants to keep jane ie to tempt her not to go to university my $50,000 is pretty close, but by all means shave $15,000 off her net income over three years.

    We are still looking at about $100,000 in difference.

    Actually I DID assume Jenny from Uni would have the same sort of run as her sister. Remember I selected a basic generalist business course. Whereas Jan with out a degree would start ad $45,000 rising to $50,000 over three years and perhaps to $60,000 in 10 years and 65,000 after 15 years (at which time both girls take maternity leave for 5-10 years perhaps working in part time roles.

    To make it worth while for Jenny to go to university she has to recoup in 15 years the debt (33,000) and the income difference. If we agree it is about $100,000 (but that is a bit of an underestimate since Jenny does not get super or holiday pay if she takes time off).

    So her salary over 12 years needs to be well ahead of her sister’s. Trouble is that is NOT the case. Median starting salary for a graduate is $52,000, so in all probability Jenny (let us say she joined the same firm as her sister, might get $2000 more per year to start. Now yes it is likely that having a degree will give jenny the edge on promotions, especially if she gets into a specialist area where her degree is relevant. However after 5 years I would expect her salary to perhaps exceed her sister’s by $5000 (let as say she is ahead by $3,000 pa for 5 years, $5,000 pa for 5 years and $10,000 pa for 3 years she is still $30,000 short of her sister (and has paid back most of the hex debt.).

    After about 15 years any realistic differences in income from you degree disappear, except in a clear profession eg law or engineering.

  20. ‘Well, it’s not happening to the extent it used to.’

    Only because more students are going to University, therefore there’s more competition. Which makes it even more important to go to University if you want a better future.

  21. dtt

    As I said, the advantage of hypotheticals is you can change the conditions to prove anything you want.

    And you keep repeating stuff that isn’t true —

    ‘After about 15 years any realistic differences in income from you degree disappear, except in a clear profession eg law or engineering.’

    As a couple of the links I used above demonstrate, (i) graduate wages rise by over 30% a year in the first three years compared to non graduates; (ii) graduates wages stay ahead of non-graduates for the first twenty five years of employment (iii) graduates earn around $1 million a year over their lifetimes than non-graduates.

    So Jenny would earn (using your figures) $54k in her first year, but over $70k by her third year.

  22. Zoomster

    Where those salary figures are up the creek is that they are comparing apples with oranges.

    I deiberateluy chose two identical twins, to remove any bias due to ability or personality.’

    However the sort of data quoted is actually the sort of stilly rubbish that leads to poor educational outcomes.

    First of all getting to unvisersity (or having the option) means that you had a sufficiently good school leaving pass to start with. if for example you redid those figures comparing say TER or ATAR scores when leaving school, I suspect the figures would by no means be so conclusive.

    No using the Qld OP system kids who finish high school to seek tertiary places get a score of 1-25. Perhaps another 20-40% choose vocational courses, probably because they have not the skill set to attempt tertiary courses in the first place. Those with OPs more than 20 will not usually find a place and those between 15-20 may not get a course they like and defer.

    So the comparison is NOT between kids who finish high school, because about 50% were not going to be in the race to begin with. This may be to do with their core literacy skills, their personalities, basic ability or willingness to apply themselves. the point is that raw data showing the value of higher education is actually showing the value of basic ability, which is reflected in ATARscores and hence in university enrollment.

    I deliberately talked of two identical ability girls where by luck/chance alone one chose to defer.

  23. Gee Trump really doesn’t want his true medical records coming to public. But there’s no need to raid his former GP, surely his new GP can simply request them with his consent like we do here in Australia.

    President Trump has never been a model of medical disclosure. Both of his most recent personal doctors have offered unbelievably rosy reviews of his health, omitting or spinning key facts, and both have had their credibility called into question.

    We may be finding out why they did what they did.

    NBC News just reported on what might be the craziest White House story you’ll read this week. It involves Trump’s colorful longtime personal doctor, Harold Bornstein, who claims that Trump’s bodyguard, a Trump Organization lawyer and a third man conducted a “raid” of his office in February 2017, seizing 35 years of Trump’s medical records.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/05/01/the-crazy-raid-of-trumps-doctor/?utm_term=.daa853b086db

  24. From the Creighton article
    In what will prove a feast for management consultants, CBA will have to draw up a Remedial Action Plan within 60 days, and appoint an “independent reviewer” to check on its progress.

    Are they still going down the path of an ‘independent’ review.
    I we had already tried that.

  25. dtt

    It’s not my fault you created a ridiculous hypothetical to prove your point. It was obvious you can’t do so using actual data.

    Jenny would cream Jane in the real world; you had to create a series of special circumstances to try and show otherwise.

  26. The BCA now whining about labor being anti-business. Is there anything more pathetic, in the whole universe, than rich people whining that they don’t get enough respect (especially when they have acted like mobsters?)

  27. zoomster @ #532 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 6:01 am

    ‘Business Council of Australia chief executive Jennifer Westacott said the Gonski 2.0 proposals would create “the real culture change” big business was looking for in schools. She said it was “vital” schools and industry worked together to make students work-ready, and the business community “stands ready to play an active role”.’

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/pretty-damn-critical-education-experts-urge-big-business-to-step-into-the-classroom-20180501-p4zcnk.html

    Jesus this “job ready” nonsense from the business lobby pisses me off.

    Business have completely washed their hands of any responsibility whatsoever to train and develop their employees. It is not possible for any general purpose education course to make a prospective employee “job ready” in the way they mean – they want the person to be ready to step into the role and be fully productive without any expense being incurred on a part of the business.

    When is the business lobby going to be called out on this insufferable rubbish?

  28. From Bernard Keane in yesterday’s Crickey:

    “At every stage, the Liberals have gone to the mat for the big banks and financial planners, prepared to remove regulations, cripple the regulator, attack their competitors — and prevent scrutiny via a royal commission. And they did it knowing exactly the kind of damage to ordinary Australians that was being inflicted by the shonks and spivs of the financial services sector. Everything the Liberals accused Labor of in relation to trade unions — being corrupted by their relationship with them, being willing to block scrutiny and help them operate outside the law, being at their beck and call — applied exactly to the relationship between the financial industry and the Liberals. The accusations directed at Labor and the unions were a perfect projection of what was going on on the conservative side of politics.

    And ordinary Australians paid the price.”

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2018/05/01/liberals-owe-more-than-an-apology-on-royal-commission/?utm_source=TractionNext&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Insider-Subscribe-010518

  29. …and, of course, it is lived experience as well – I know numerous young people who decided they didn’t need a Uni degree to earn good money, who were back applying for courses quick smart.

    It’s a feature of the local mill; kids do their gap year there, earning $60k a year. Their parents are always worried this means they won’t continue their education; the kids say it’s an incentive to do so.

    Uni doesn’t just mean higher wages. It means more rewarding and engaging work.

  30. zoomster @ #536 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 8:25 am

    dtt

    As I said, the advantage of hypotheticals is you can change the conditions to prove anything you want.

    And you keep repeating stuff that isn’t true —

    ‘After about 15 years any realistic differences in income from you degree disappear, except in a clear profession eg law or engineering.’

    As a couple of the links I used above demonstrate, (i) graduate wages rise by over 30% a year in the first three years compared to non graduates; (ii) graduates wages stay ahead of non-graduates for the first twenty five years of employment (iii) graduates earn around $1 million a year over their lifetimes than non-graduates.

    So Jenny would earn (using your figures) $54k in her first year, but over $70k by her third year.

    Zoomster

    I call that rot!

    From my own kid’s experience only one achieved anything like that sort of wages growth (and they are high flyers). One kid actually took a pay cut to start in a professional role (and that was from the income earned while doing a graduate degree at about 3/4 pace).

    Moreover that data includes the results from those kids in well paid in demand professions – medicine, dentistry, law(???), engineering and various health sciences. remove those fro the equation and again the data might look very different. One kid – the possibly the most academically talented, driven and hard working was exploited in a top law firm,for pay that showed nothing like that growth rate.

    Now please do not get me wrong.

    I am a great supporter of university education but I am very, very wary of generalist degrees, especially ones that have been heavily dumbed down, because the chances or emerging with a useful skill set which is much better than that acheived with a good high school education, is pretty remote.

  31. grimace

    I love this ‘standing ready to play an active role’ business – you’d think that the various educators were actively blocking business involvement.

    Gonski had a similarly stupid comment – he said business could get involved in schools, and used the example of the local accountant helping schools sort out insurance for school camps. No school worries its pretty little head about sorting out insurance for school camps, there’s a government department which does that….

  32. dtt

    As I’ve said earlier, you can always find exceptions. That’s exactly why you look at data, not anecdotal experience. The data, in this case, is clear.

    There are students who drop out of VCE, write a best selling single and go on to become multi million dollar earning megastars. Or get a role on ‘Home and Away’ which leads to an international acting career. These would also distort the average earnings for someone leaving school without their VCE/HSC.

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