Next federal election pendulum (provisional)

A pendulum for the next federal election, assuming new draft boundaries in Victoria, South Australia and the ACT are adopted as is.

Following the recent publication of draft new boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, we now have some idea of what the state of play will be going into the next election, albeit that said boundaries are now subject to a process of public submissions and possible revision. The only jurisdictions that will retain their boundaries from the 2016 election will be New South Wales and Western Australia, redistributions for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory having been done and dusted since the last election.

The next election will be for a House of Representatives of 151 seats, ending a period with 150 seats that began in 2001. This is down to rounding in the formula by which states’ populations are converted into seat entitlements, which on this occasion caused Victoria to gain a thirty-seventh seat and the Australian Capital Territory to tip over to a third, balanced only by the loss of a seat for South Australia, which has now gone from thirteen to ten since the parliament was enlarged to roughly its present size in 1984.

The changes have been generally favourable to Labor, most noticeably in that the new seat in Victoria is a Labor lock on the western edge of Melbourne, and a third Australian Capital Territory seat amounts to three safe seats for Labor where formerly there were two. The ACT previously tipped over for a third seat at the 1996 election, but the electorate of Namadji proved short-lived, with the territory reverting to two seats in 1998, and remaining just below the threshold ever since. The Victorian redistribution has also made Dunkley in south-eastern Melbourne a notionally Labor seat, and has brought Corangamite, now to be called Cox, right down to the wire. Antony Green’s and Ben Raue’s estimates have it fractionally inside the Coalition column; mine has it fractionally tipping over to Labor.

The table at the bottom is a pendulum-style listing of the new margins, based on my own determinations for the finalisised and draft redistributions. The outer columns record the margin changes in the redistributions, where applicable (plus or minus Coalition or Labor depending on which side of the pendulum they land). Since I have Cox/Corangamite in the Labor column, I get 77 seats in the Coalition column, including three they don’t hold (Mayo, held by Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, and Indi and Kennedy, held by independents Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter), and 74 in the Labor column, including two they don’t hold (Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Clark, as Denison will now be called, and Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne).

For those who like long rows of numbers, the following links are to spreadsheets that provide a full accounting of my calculations for the finalised redistributions in Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. I will do something similar when the Victorian, South Australian and ACT redistributions are finalised, which should be around August.

Federal redistribution of Queensland 2018
Federal redistribution of Tasmania 2017
Federal redistribution of Northern Territory 2017

Coalition seats Labor seats
+0.0% (0.6%) Qld CAPRICORNIA HERBERT Qld (0.0%) 0.0%
0.0% (0.6%) Qld FORDE COX (CORANGAMITE) Vic (0.1%) +3.2%
(0.7%) NSW GILMORE COWAN WA (0.7%)
0.0% (-1.0%) Qld FLYNN LONGMAN Qld (0.8%) 0.0%
(1.1%) NSW ROBERTSON LINDSAY NSW (1.1%)
(1.4%) NSW BANKS GRIFFITH Qld (1.4%) -0.2%
0.0% (1.6%) Qld PETRIE MACNAMARA (MELBOURNE PORTS) Vic (1.5%) +0.1%
+0.2% (1.8%) Qld DICKSON BRADDON Tas (1.6%) -0.6%
(2.1%) WA HASLUCK DUNKLEY Vic (1.7%) +3.2%
(2.3%) NSW PAGE MACQUARIE NSW (2.2%)
+1.1% (2.5%) Vic LA TROBE ISAACS Vic (2.4%) -3.3%
+7.6% (2.8%) SA BOOTHBY EDEN-MONARO NSW (2.9%)
+2.0% (3.2%) Vic CHISHOLM PERTH WA (3.3%)
+4.3% (3.3%) SA MAYO RICHMOND NSW (4%)
+0.0% (3.4%) Qld DAWSON LYONS Tas (4%) +1.7%
0.0% (3.4%) Qld BONNER BENDIGO Vic (4%) +0.2%
(3.6%) WA SWAN MORETON Qld (4.1%) +0.0%
(3.6%) WA PEARCE HOTHAM Vic (4.3%) -3.2%
-0.0% (3.9%) Qld LEICHHARDT DOBELL NSW (4.8%)
-1.9% (4.1%) Vic CASEY JAGAJAGA Vic (5.1%) +0.4%
(4.7%) NSW REID McEWEN Vic (5.4%) -2.4%
+0.4% (4.8%) Vic INDI BASS Tas (5.4%) -0.7%
+1.2% (5.7%) SA STURT LILLEY Qld (5.8%) +0.5%
+0.1% (6%) Qld BRISBANE SOLOMON NT (6.1%) +0.1%
(6.1%) WA STIRLING GREENWAY NSW (6.3%)
+0.5% (6.2%) Vic DEAKIN BURT WA (7.1%)
-0.1% (6.7%) Qld KENNEDY BALLARAT Vic (7.5%) +0.1%
(6.8%) WA CANNING FREMANTLE WA (7.5%)
0.0% (7.1%) Qld BOWMAN PARRAMATTA NSW (7.7%)
-0.7% (7.1%) Vic FLINDERS BLAIR Qld (8.2%) -0.7%
-1.2% (7.4%) Vic ASTON LINGIARI NT (8.2%) -0.2%
+1.6% (7.6%) Vic MONASH (McMILLAN) WERRIWA NSW (8.2%)
-2.9% (7.7%) Vic MENZIES HINDMARSH SA (8.2%) +0.7%
+0.0% (8.2%) Qld WIDE BAY BARTON NSW (8.3%)
-0.1% (8.4%) Qld HINKLER MACARTHUR NSW (8.3%)
-3.5% (8.6%) SA GREY KINGSFORD SMITH NSW (8.6%)
-0.1% (9%) Qld RYAN CORIO Vic (8.6%) -1.4%
+0.1% (9.1%) Vic WANNON BEAN ACT (8.9%) New
+0.1% (9.2%) Qld FISHER ADELAIDE SA (8.9%) +2.1%
(9.3%) NSW HUGHES OXLEY Qld (9%) 0.0%
0.0% (9.6%) Qld WRIGHT MARIBYRNONG Vic (9.5%) -2.8%
(9.7%) NSW BENNELONG HOLT Vic (9.9%) -4.3%
-0.6% (10.1%) Vic HIGGINS SHORTLAND NSW (9.9%)
(10.2%) NSW HUME PATERSON NSW (10.7%)
-0.0% (10.9%) Qld FAIRFAX FRANKLIN Tas (10.7%) +0.0%
(11%) WA MOORE MAKIN SA (10.8%) +0.1%
(11.1%) WA DURACK RANKIN Qld (11.3%) 0.0%
(11.1%) WA TANGNEY BRAND WA (11.4%)
(11.1%) NSW WARRINGAH FENNER ACT (11.8%) -2.1%
+0.2% (11.3%) Qld FADDEN McMAHON NSW (12.1%)
(11.6%) NSW LYNE HUNTER NSW (12.5%)
0.0% (11.6%) Qld McPHERSON CANBERRA ACT (12.9%) +4.4%
(11.8%) NSW CALARE CUNNINGHAM NSW (13.3%)
-0.2% (12.4%) Vic GOLDSTEIN KINGSTON SA (13.5%) +0.1%
(12.6%) WA FORREST WHITLAM NSW (13.7%)
(12.6%) NSW COWPER NEWCASTLE NSW (13.8%)
-0.8% (12.6%) Vic KOOYONG LALOR Vic (14.3%) +0.9%
(13.6%) NSW NORTH SYDNEY GELLIBRAND Vic (14.7%) -3.6%
+6.9% (14.4%) SA BARKER SYDNEY NSW (15.3%)
-0.4% (14.6%) Qld MONCRIEFF CLARK (DENISON) Tas (15.3%) -0.0%
(15%) WA O’CONNOR BRUCE Vic (15.8%) +11.7%
(15.1%) NSW PARKES MELBOURNE Vic (17%) +0.4%
0.0% (15.3%) Qld GROOM FOWLER NSW (17.5%)
(15.4%) NSW COOK WATSON NSW (17.6%)
(15.7%) NSW MACKELLAR SPENCE (WAKEFIELD) SA (17.9%) +0.8%
(16.4%) NSW NEW ENGLAND GORTON Vic (18.3%) -1.2%
(16.4%) NSW RIVERINA CHIFLEY NSW (19.2%)
(16.4%) NSW BEROWRA BLAXLAND NSW (19.5%)
0.0% (17.5%) Qld MARANOA CALWELL Vic (20%) +2.2%
(17.7%) NSW WENTWORTH SCULLIN Vic (20.4%) +3.1%
(17.8%) NSW MITCHELL FRASER Vic (20.9%) New
-0.3% (18.1%) Vic GIPPSLAND WILLS Vic (21.7%) +0.5%
-1.4% (19.9%) Vic MALLEE BATMAN Vic (22.2%) +0.5%
(20.5%) NSW FARRER GRAYNDLER NSW (22.4%)
(20.7%) WA CURTIN
(21%) NSW BRADFIELD
-2.5% (22.4%) Vic NICHOLLS (MURRAY)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

682 comments on “Next federal election pendulum (provisional)”

Comments Page 8 of 14
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  1. I reckon the coalition, esp, will be against cannabis use in general bc it’ll destroy profits of liquor industry

  2. Excellent interview with Ms. O’Dwyer. This charming young lady completely lived up to expectations.

    Hon Kelly O’Dwyer MP

    Close observation showed the inner demon at work behind the shifty, close set, beady eyes.

    Ms. O’Dwyer obviously struggling to escape from the clutches of the horrible, evil, brain eating, really stupid alien creature now occupying the central cortex inside (what passes for) her brain.

    Crowd funding is required, I believe, to raise the money to send Ms. O’Dwyer to Indonesia for the necessary surgery to restore her to normality.

    I believe a berth is available for her transportation. The latest live sheep transport ship due to leave soon should be suitable.

    A note:- According to the latest ABC pop psychology test, I am a middle class woman and as such, demand a little respect.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-13/what-your-habits-reveal-about-your-social-class/9610658

  3. The best part of the O’Dwyer interview was the middle 5mins.

    On energy, the panel tried to paint those opposing the NEG as Liberal outsiders, dissidents, forgetting it was Morrison who brought the lump into Parliament and passed it around the front bench.

  4. jenauthor @ #352 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 7:48 am

    I reckon the coalition, esp, will be against cannabis use in general bc it’ll destroy profits of liquor industry

    In America Republicans who were against legalisation of marijuana are following the money to take up lucrative board positions on grower companies. John Boehner is the latest. I imagine Liberals here taking a similar journey.

  5. According to Lenore, there was animal suffering on board a ship before it even left port, but now it’s on the way to Turkey.
    Wot regulations???

  6. So Malcolm Turnbull refuses to answer uncomfortable questions from the media if he chooses to? Accountability = zero

  7. KayJay @ #353 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 6:49 am

    Crowd funding is required, I believe, to raise the money to send Ms. O’Dwyer to Indonesia for the necessary surgery to restore her to normality.

    I believe a berth is available for her transportation. The latest live sheep transport ship due to leave soon should be suitable.

    The sheep don’t go to Indonesia, you’d need to put her on one with the cows to get her there!!! 🙂

  8. Prof. Peter Doherty‏ @ProfPCDoherty · 16m16 minutes ago

    Watching #Insiders can there be any doubt that the nation will continue to endure a continuing agony of obfuscation and denial until this awful LNP government is consigned to the recycling bin of history?

  9. lizzie @ #361 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 6:55 am

    Prof. Peter Doherty‏ @ProfPCDoherty · 16m16 minutes ago

    Watching #Insiders can there be any doubt that the nation will continue to endure a continuing agony of obfuscation and denial until this awful LNP government is consigned to the recycling bin of history?

    That’s one of the problems.

    They just get recycled!! 🙁

  10. Kelly O’Mandible’s smug smirk at Barry’s suggestion that the banks don’t deserve to get a tax cut, and her lapse into trickledown cant in response at the end of that interview is a Labor Election Ad in itself …

  11. Socrates @ #297 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 8:40 am

    Morning all. Thanks BK and Cat for some fine posts on capitalism over night. The banks are not the only corporations behaving badly. Uber is proving itself a highly unethical firm on several fronts in recent times. Uber Eats is another one. Personally I refuse to use them.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-22/uber-eats-criticised-over-conditions-on-restaurant-owners/9662814

    If Uber’s practices are legal here the Trade Practices Act needs to be rewritten. If they are not legal Uber, l8ke banks, should be prosecuted by Asic.

    I am fascinated by the hype about ‘Digital Disruption’ that companies like Uber are supposed to epitomise.
    Their disruption is not in their use of ‘digital’ technology, it is in their entry of markets using a business model that in most cases violates the law and existing norms of behaviour.
    The simply ignored all the laws and regulations in place to govern the taxi and hire car industries. And to the eternal shame of State Governments, including Labor Governments, they have been allowed to get away with it.
    They are a bunch of bandits and like you I will not use them under any circumstances.

  12. LOL! Riffing off his use of Special Council instead of Special Counsel in his middle of the night anger tweeting. And I love how that same photo has become a meme in itself.

    Bari Biern@barib
    6h6 hours ago

    “Do you know where the Special Council is meeting?”

    :large

  13. lizzie @ #358 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 9:53 am

    According to Lenore, there was animal suffering on board a ship before it even left port, but now it’s on the way to Turkey.
    Wot regulations???

    David Littleproud, despite his huffing and puffing, did nothing when push came to shove to actually do something. At least Labor called for a suspension of the travel.

  14. Mark Dickenson The PM signed off on it!‏ @bugwannostra · 57m57 minutes ago

    The Abbott/Turnbull government defunded all the banking oversight in 2013. APRA ASIC & the ATO were all cut. The LNP governments are the friends of corruption as long as there is money in it for their party. #insiders

    I think the Coalition staffers spend all their time researching “facts” to use against Bill Shorten and Labor.

  15. Barney in Go Dau @ #314 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 9:54 am

    KayJay @ #353 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 6:49 am

    Crowd funding is required, I believe, to raise the money to send Ms. O’Dwyer to Indonesia for the necessary surgery to restore her to normality.

    I believe a berth is available for her transportation. The latest live sheep transport ship due to leave soon should be suitable.

    The sheep don’t go to Indonesia, you’d need to put her on one with the cows to get her there!!! 🙂

    Dammit. I have been caught out, once again.

    In my defense I am simply very busy enjoying my new upgraded status as a middle class woman. 😜

  16. Xanthippe said that O’Dwyers interview is already being described as a “56 car pile-up” on twitter.

    WWP
    Thanks for the link interview on banks not being prosecuted for crimes. I agree it is a problem! But it is far worse than unethical. When crimes go report3d but unprosecuted, you have reached the stage of a corrupt system, because generally police and prosecuters have a statutory responsibility to investigate and prosecute crime.

    Under the Liberals we have become the Greece of the south.

  17. Socrates @ #371 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 7:07 am

    Xanthippe said that O’Dwyers interview is already being described as a “56 car pike-up” on twitter.

    WWP
    Thanks for the link interview on banks not being prosecuted for crimes. I agree it is a problem! But it is far worse than unethical. When crimes go report3d but unprosecuted, you have reached the stage of a corrupt system, because generally police and prosecuters have a statutory responsibility to investigate and prosecute crime.

    Under the Liberals we have become the Greece of the south.

    I thought we already were, well at least Melbourne!! 🙂

  18. Part of the problem for the government is that no matter how tough they want to seem to be on the banks and financial institutions, it will always be possible for the ALP to project itself as tougher: it’s like the asylum seeker situation in reverse. My guess is that when these proposed new penalties get to the Parliament, Labor will hit them with a stack of amendments: more criminal offences, mandatory prison sentences, life disqualifications from being a company director, the works. If it gets up, they will get the credit, but if the LNP can stop it, the ALP will have claimed the moral high ground, and will have more ammunition for their campaign line that the LNP’s priority in all of this has been to run protection for their friends.

  19. Bruce Haigh‏ @bruce_haigh · 21m21 minutes ago

    #auspol #Insiders #liveexports As a retired farmer I am against the live animal trade. It is not necessary. How is it that NZ has banned the trade and continues to have a profitable trade? NZ with a limited economic base needs the trade more than us.

    John Wren‏ @JohnWren1950

    By banning live exports, the NZ government gave impetus to local processing (value adding). They now have massive abotoirs, meat packing and freezing plants employing tens of thousands across the country. Banning live exports creates many many jobs. #auspol #nzpol

  20. Rossmcg

    Thanks for the charity link. I should add I have decided not to attend Anzac day services this year. I still feel sympathy for our returned soldiers, and remember two fallen relatives from the past. But between the RSL’s shenanigans, and the increasing nationalism on the day, I no longer like where it is taking us. I feel we have moved from remembering the dead to avoid future war, to glorifying past wars to prepare for the next foreign deployment. I will remember my relatives in my thoughts, and leave it at that. Have a good day all.

  21. Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 54m54 minutes ago

    There are train wrecks, and then there is Kelly O’Dwyer’s interview on Insiders

    I’m sure that the Coalition will be pleased that Anzac Day will take attention away from Banks.

  22. I think the Coalition staffers spend all their time researching “facts” to use against Bill Shorten and Labor.

    Which is why I want to know whether what Kelly O’Dwyer accused Bill Shorten of is true or not! Under the Gillard government DID Labor ignore the calls of Mark Butler for a Royal Commission into Financial Services, OR was it defeated in the House by the votes of the Coalition and some Cross Benchers?

    Does anyone know the answer?

  23. WeWantPaul says:
    Sunday, April 22, 2018 at 8:46 am
    In fact Uber is largely doing the same thing as finance / banking types, taking a big clip of money as it goes past without really providing anything of value.

    Uber collects commissions on the deals it facilitates between ride-providers and ride-users. This can be seen as a form of rent or a toll on transacting in the e-market it operates, within which ride-deals are agreed and completed.

    It’s false to say it doesn’t provide anything of value. If this were the case, no-one would use Uber in the first place. Uber succeeds because ride-providers supply their services below their real long run cost of production and because riders will pay a premium for customised service.

    There is also a huge barrier to entry in that market. A lot of others tried and failed before Uber achieved the scale necessary for the market to function. From their point of view, they are tapping otherwise unmet demand for and unused supply of transport services. However, because they have a monopoly in their own e-market, participants on both sides get screwed. Suppliers are underpaid. Users are overcharged.

    For mine, I have never used Uber.

  24. There is no viable business model compatible with humane live sheep transport. The numbers mean the poor wretched animals have to stand close packed side by side, and they die of heat stress – cooked alive.

    I was appalled at that young female interviewer (Sky?) asking Craig Emerson why he was getting emotional about it.

  25. I was appalled at that young female interviewer (Sky?) asking Craig Emerson why he was getting emotional about it.

    Laura Jayes has survived and stayed at Sky when others with a conscience and a heart and a soul have given up on it and left.

  26. ItzaDream

    It was reported that inspectors were prevented from getting on to the latest ship to leave.
    I was thinking – if protesters try to gain access to the port, am I right that they would be arrested?

  27. Does anyone know the answer?

    From memory the bank RC arose from a Senate inquiry into Commonwealth Bank, but that report was handed down in 2014 when it was the Abbott govt in office. Cormann rejected an RC at the time.

  28. lizzie @ #381 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 10:27 am

    ItzaDream

    It was reported that inspectors were prevented from getting on to the latest ship to leave.
    I was thinking – if protesters try to gain access to the port, am I right that they would be arrested?

    Don’t know, but more than likely I’d wager. No room for whistleblowers and protestors, nor truth.

  29. Hubert Horan is an expert on the economics of urban transit. He has written a series about Uber’s business model. He concludes that Uber loses $2 billion a year and only remains in business because its investors subsidize the passengers’ fares. Uber has not made any value-adding breakthroughs in technology, products, or processes. Uber’s investors hope to create the perception that Uber is a highly successful company, persuade gullible people to buy shares in an IPO, and cash in before the whole thing collapses.

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/can-uber-ever-deliver-part-one-understanding-ubers-bleak-operating-economics.html

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/12/can-uber-ever-deliver-part-two-understanding-ubers-uncompetitive-costs.html

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/12/can-uber-ever-deliver-part-three-understanding-false-claims-about-ubers-innovation-and-competitive-advantages.html

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/12/can-uber-ever-deliver-part-four-understanding-that-unregulated-monopoly-was-always-ubers-central-objective.html

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/12/can-uber-ever-deliver-part-five-addressing-reader-comments-and-questions.html

  30. Former Prosecutor Lays It Out: Trump/Russia Was A High Tech Watergate

    Former Watergate prosecutor Nick Akerman said that the Trump/Russia scandal is a high tech Watergate, and an example of the technology catching up with the crimes.

    Akerman said on MSNBC’s AM Joy, “Instead of bringing a bunch of guys up from Miami to break into the Watergate headquarters, the Democratic headquarters, they did it with the Russians who did it electronically this time making it a lot more difficult to uncover.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/04/21/former-prosecutor-lays-it-out-trump-russia-was-a-high-tech-watergate.html

  31. If there was a problem with a union (any problem, any union) the msm would be asking what Shorten, as an ex unionist, knew about it; O’Dwyer is an ex bank executive, but apparently her past is out of bounds.

    Not one question along the lines of “When you were a banking executive, Ms O’Dwyer, were you aware…?”

  32. If Kelly O’Dwyer’s husband is the head of UBS she should be NOWHERE near the Finance Portfolio. It is an absolute scandal. She SHOULD have been asked about that.
    The other huge scandal is how many Secretaries of the Treasury and Reserve Bank Governors who have flipped over and joined the boards of big coys. I can’t take anything that Ken Henry says seriously (zero) and Glen Stevens now works for Macquarie Bank. Absolutely disgraceful.

  33. Rossmcg. @ #368 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 10:04 am

    The spivs strike again.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/failed-charity-s-1m-splurge-on-publicity-campaign-approved-by-government-20180420-p4zaus.html

    The national obsession with Gallipoli opens the door.

    I am afraid I am completely over ANZAC Day and what it has become.
    I have not the slightest inclination to join or watch the Bogan Festival that takes place at Gallipoli on ANZAC Day or any other day of the year. I wouldn’t blame the Turks if they told us to just f*** off.
    It has become a national embarrassment.
    OTOH, I do honour the sacrifice of Australians who fought in all wars, men and women. But I will do it in my quiet contemplative way.
    I also despise the politicians who get us involved in futile wars that are none of our business.

  34. A tale of the same question asked in two separate interviews given only hours apart.

    Comey on CNN:

    TAPPER: Do you think the nation would be better off if Hillary Clinton had won?

    COMEY: I can’t answer that. That’s something- that hypothetical is too hard for me to go back in time to try and answer-

    TAPPER: You paint a pretty dire picture of President Trump. It’s hard to imagine how you don’t think the nation is better off if Hillary Clinton had won.

    COMEY: I don’t think about it in those terms though, Jake. I think we have the current president, who was in my view legitimately elected, is serving as president. The question is, ‘Is he adhering to our values?’ He’s clearly not. So what do we do about it? I think the first thing we do is not get numb to it. When he calls for the jailing of private citizens in his tweets, don’t shrug but realize- that’s not okay. That’s not normal.

    And to the New Yorker:

    REMNICK: Do you think we’d be a lot better off with Hillary Clinton as president than Donald Trump?

    COMEY: Certainly given her commitment to our traditions and our norms and our values and the rule of law, yes.

    https://www.mediaite.com/tv/comey-says-wed-be-better-off-w-hillary-as-potus-hours-after-punting-on-exact-same-question-from-tapper/

  35. Financial corporations need to be made directly answerable to the criminal law. The current situation – where employees may be charged and convicted as proxies for the corporations, but the corporations themselves will not be charged and convicted – is just hopelessly inadequate. This has never been enough to achieve compliance and never will be.

    It’s equally pointless to have the regulator – ASIC – also responsible for criminal prosecution. This simply encourages concealment of misconduct from the regulator – a concealment that ASIC is essentially happy to go along with most of the time.

    Why would ASIC condone concealment of criminal acts by banks? There is this conundrum. Imagine a bank were to be convicted of, say, fraud or stealing or another serious offence. The essential characteristic of these offences is financial dishonesty. It should not be possible – and, I venture to say, would not be possible – for a corporation to both be convicted of such offences and hold a banking license. If a major bank were to lose its licence it would become immediately insolvent as would all of its counter-parties, including the other banks, many borrowers and the many creditors, including depositors, of the banking system. Absolute chaos would result.

    The financial system would not withstand the criminal conviction of a bank, at least as the current laws stand.

    This immunity has protected the banks for decades. It is this immunity that has allowed the banks to pillage their clients. The immunity has to be abolished. This will require far-reaching reform of the Bank Act, the Commonwealth Criminal Code and the Corporations Act.

    Banks themselves must be made accountable under the Criminal Code in ways that go beyond the imposition of fines – fines that in any case are never imposed because banks are never charged nor convicted of financial offences.

    I have been arguing for this inside WA Labor…and will continue to do so.

  36. Bemused

    I share your views on Anzac Day. War is a terrible thing. It is not to be celebrated the way have come to do it in Australia.

    My mother, who lived through war and saw men leave never to return and the damage to those who did come back invariably asks me each year why Anzac Day was turned into the media circus it has become.

    I blame politicians who just want their image on the news draped in the flag.

  37. Confessions @ #382 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 10:33 am

    Does anyone know the answer?

    From memory the bank RC arose from a Senate inquiry into Commonwealth Bank, but that report was handed down in 2014 when it was the Abbott govt in office. Cormann rejected an RC at the time.

    Which is exactly why I thought Kelly O’Dwyer was lying about it, or at least bending some sort of truth into truthiness. In fact, I think I might ask the Kouk on Twitter about it.

  38. Kelly O’Guppy (Ex-Bankster, spouse and breeder of Banksters) just publicly strafed any surviving rats from the self-torpedoing of the SS Spivs, Rent-Seekers, Sheep-Molesters and Greedy Arseholes Party.

    When the ALP take power at the next election, my hope is that they gut Adolph Kipfler’s Border Farce, ASIC and the AFP, and use the saved funds to set up an inquisitorial ICAC using a completely revised ATO to tax the Owners of the SRSSMGA into the stone age. The alternative involves renewably powered tumbrils.

  39. bemused says:
    Sunday, April 22, 2018 at 10:41 am

    I am afraid I am completely over ANZAC Day and what it has become.

    I disagreed with my father about many things. But I grew to understand and agree with him about ANZAC Day. My father served in the navy during WW2 and saw service in the Pacific. He had an unusual deployment and was stationed with US personnel, mainly marines I think, though he almost never related the details of his experiences. He was aware, of course, that very many of the personnel he served with were being sent to die in combat with Japanese forces. He had a supply support and liaison function in the oceanic tropics.

    After his demobilisation he burned his uniform and decorations. He banned weapons – even toy guns – from our house. We were allowed water pistols, but he really disliked even the toy cap-guns that my brothers and I wanted to play with. He never wanted to join the ANZAC commemorations. He barely ever talked of war, and then only to caution his children that war was not glamorous. It was pure inhumanity in his view.

    The older I grow, the more respect I have for his views. He was still a teenager when, along with his brothers, he enlisted. He was very young. He did what was expected of him through the war years and for a while afterwards. I believe he hated nearly every minute of it.

  40. I blame politicians who just want their image on the news draped in the flag.

    I’m sick of the Military Adulation porn already and it’s not even ANZAC Day!

  41. I note that the ABC have begun sanitising the Coalition line about evading the Royal Commission by echoing the talking point that O’Dwyer put out today that the Coalition took a ‘sober approach’ to establishing a Royal Commission into the Bank and Financial Industry.

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