After Malcolm Turnbull’s worst week for polling news since the election, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds Labor’s lead at its narrowest in some time. The three results out this week included a Newspoll that had the Coalition ahead of Labor on the primary vote, something they have only managed a handful of times in the past year; a high-end-of-average result from Ipsos that included a 50-50 respondent-allocated two-party result, indicating a strong flow of preferences to the Coalition, which factors into the BludgerTrack preference model; and a par for the course result from Essential Research. Equally importantly, these new results displace a particularly bad data point from the Coalition from ReachTEL on March 28.
On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one each in New South Wales and Victoria, and two in Western Australia. While Western Australia continues to record the largest swing, BludgerTrack’s recent double-digit blowout appears to have been a burst of statistical noise. A precis of the results can be seen on the sidebar, but the real deal is the link through the image below:
Latest Gallup Poll Shows Lowest Approval of Trump’s Presidency
President Donald Trump’s favorable rating, already low by historical standards, has dropped to 38% — while his unfavorable rating is at 59%.
This marks a dip in his favorable rating from 41% in December last year. It comes as Trump has escalated his attacks on special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia to influence the 2016 election. In contrast to Trump’s overall image, Mueller’s image is net positive — 36% favorable and 28% unfavorable.
http://news.gallup.com/poll/232433/trump-favorable-rating-dips.aspx
This is what has just happened:
Russia’s client used chemical weapons against civilians;
Russia both denied this had occurred and blamed the UK while preventing an investigation by the UN;
While the US and two allies threatened punitive attacks on Russia’s client, Russia ramped up the rhetoric and threatened to counter-attack the US, raising the spectre of nuclear/nuclear conflict;
The US, the UK and France forewarned Russia of their targets and then launched their missiles, causing damage to some facilities but no apparent harm to the military assets or capabilities of Russia or its client.
The US, the UK and France have been drawn into making a show of force, but in the event this has only magnified their ineffectiveness and affirmed Russian impunity. The US has shown it will not attack Russian assets even if Russia has breached international law. This affirms for all to see: Russia and its partner, Iran, now have conclusive ownership of Syria.
There was little doubt about this before. There is none at all now.
Russia breached international law in Crimea and Ukraine and has done so again in England and – more than once – in Syria. It has done so without paying a military price and while making territorial, strategic and political gains. Russia is winning.
lizzie @ #14 Sunday, April 15th, 2018 – 7:22 am
I think the Separation of powers comes into play here.
Perhaps the Biblical injunction
Stops at the marital front door.
Some may choose to interpretate the Biblical verses as, perhaps, a psychiatric conundrum which mirrors the variation between care for “little ones” on one hand and “incarceration, demonisation and disregard on the other as a condition requiring treatment (possibly empathy injections).
I may have gotten myself into a tangle here.
What I started out to point out was the size of the childcare enterprise in question.
To my surburban, old time country boy mind, the centre in question is very large indeed.
Our Rooms – Camelia Avenue
Nursery (0 – 15 months)
8 children per room
Pre-Toddlers (15 months – 2.5 years)
10 children per room
Toddlers (2-3 years)
12 children per room
Pre-Kindy (2.5-3.5 years)
16 children per room
Kindy (3-5 years)
24 children per room
That’s a lot of children and, I suppose, a lot of moolah, lucre, pocket change, pesos or wherewithal.
This is not a criticism of the centre. I am quietly confident it operates well within the guidelines and supervision of the QKLG (Queensland Kindergarten Learning Guide).
My eldest favourite daughter has a miniscule outfit (4 children) – sometimes five when Arthur Percy, the most favoured great grandchild is visiting.
I think I need fresh coffee and a little rest to easy my troubled mind.
Good morning all. ☕ 🍔 that my hamburger for lunch.
E&OE
Assad is defiant as U.S.-led strikes in Syria show no sign of threatening his hold on power
President Trump called the attacks an “enormous success,” tweeting that they represented a “Mission Accomplished.”
But on the streets of Damascus, there was jubilation as government supporters realized a more expansive assault would not materialize. Residents gathered in central squares and danced to patriotic songs, waving Syrian flags alongside those of Russia and Iran, Syria’s allies in the fight against the anti-Assad rebellion.
“From Assad’s perspective, this was a big win. He must be thinking, this is good, I came out on top, I gained much more than I lost.” “Assad has absorbed worse before, and he will absorb this,”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/damascus-defiant-as-trump-orders-strikes-after-syria-chemical-attack/2018/04/14/5ec055a6-3f5c-11e8-955b-7d2e19b79966_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.714c27a78951
Looks like bemused was right.
Enjoyed the discussion on transport last night that I just caught up with. Made a pleasant change.
And thanks again lizzie.
Yep
Adam Davidson
@adamdavidson
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9h
In fact, this one is a lot simpler and clearer than the Iraq occupation or the financial crisis.
The Trump Org made much money through shady deals with corrupt criminals. Most of it will come out. It will be uglier and, somehow, also more pathetic than most realize.
Bushfire Bill @ #20 Sunday, April 15th, 2018 – 8:01 am
Macron has been seriously disappointing in his willingness to engage with Trump.
The whole thread is worthwhile
Adam Davidson
@adamdavidson
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9h
This is no time to be complacent, of course.
But the broad outline of this show is already written. It ends badly, very badly for insiders, not great for the rest of us either.
10/end
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Remember Bush and the Iraq war were polling at 70% on the day of that Mission Accomplished move.
It was still common for pundits–like Kudlow–to say there was no crisis in January, 2008, when the fire was burning all around us.
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In fact, this one is a lot simpler and clearer than the Iraq occupation or the financial crisis.
The Trump Org made much money through shady deals with corrupt criminals. Most of it will come out. It will be uglier and, somehow, also more pathetic than most realize.
8/
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It feels, to me, that we are in the same place we were around the time of that Mission Accomplished sign or the quiet before Bear Stearns and Lehman.
This isn’t about opinions anymore. Every single person who has looked at the business knows in a simple, clear way.
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There are many reporters who, now, know a lot about Donald Trump and his ties to shady oligarchs around the former Soviet Union.
We know that Michael Cohen was central to those relationships.
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Once I knew how they worked, I knew there was a massive financial crisis underway. (I was late to it, others figured this out long, long before me.) But it took another nine or ten months for the entire world to see it. By then, of course, it was too late.
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That was a moment where I didn’t feel like I was predicting the future. I was merely stating the clear, observable truth.
I felt the same in late 2007, after I spent a few weeks studying C.D.O.s, those toxic assets at the heart of the financial crisis.
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Laurence TribeVerified account@tribelaw
12h12 hours ago
What Trump’s pardons of Joe Arpaio & Scooter Libby had in common: Both were pardoned for crimes that obstructed justice. So both pardons were signals to DOJ targets from Mike Flynn to Michael Cohen that they needn’t comply with lawful demands that embroil Trump.
Briefly: “This is what has just happened”
Spoken like a good little sheep.
Adam Davidson
@adamdavidson
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9h
Much later–in June when I came back to NY on vacation–even some of my lefty friends didn’t believe me and Jen that the occupation was a complete disaster. It was still in the pundits-yelling-at-each-other phase on TV.
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Adam Davidson
@adamdavidson
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10h
For reporters on the ground in Baghdad, it was hilarious, maddening and a bit terrifying that people in the U.S. actually thought the occupation of Iraq was going well.
We knew. We saw with our eyes: the looting, the chaos, the complete lack of plan among the Americans.
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Adam Davidson
@adamdavidson
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10h
On the day Bush was on the USS Lincoln with the Mission Accomplished sign, I was in Baghdad, standing outside the Republican Palace hoping to talk to the Americans in charge.
I couldn’t. There weren’t Americans in charge.
1/
Meanwhile, there is no more news about a summit between Kim and Trump.
Fess
It is too funny re Trump. He telegraphs is guilt in such an obvious way.
Message to Assad?
To me it seems the message he can take from the missile attacks is that he can carry on killing people as he has done for years, destroying their towns and cities and driving them out of their homes as long as he doesn’t use gas.
Trump et al can stamp their feet, tweet their anger, pontificate from the flag draped lectern and send their missiles but I doubt it will make a blind bit of difference.
a r says: Sunday, April 15, 2018 at 9:21 am
Bushfire Bill @ #20 Sunday, April 15th, 2018 – 8:01 am
And F*CK knows what the French are up to.
Macron has been seriously disappointing in his willingness to engage with Trump.
********************************************************
The Associated PressVerified account @AP
BREAKING: French defense minister says Russia was warned ahead of joint US, UK, French military attacks on Syria.
Victoria @ #58 Sunday, April 15th, 2018 – 6:21 am
It might be if you edited it!
Sohar says:
Sunday, April 15, 2018 at 9:23 am
Briefly: “This is what has just happened”
Spoken like a good little sheep.
Putin is winning. Among the many losers we should include the people of Russia as well as the democracies and the rule of law.
A moment of revelation on this wonderful Sunday morning.
Power outages may be caused by falling branches or trees.
Employ the Queensland solution.
Land clearing, that’s the answer, remove the trees.
Et voila – the lights shine bright in the middle of the night.
Huzzah ❗
I think I need a different Gravatar. 😎
Oh my! Watch this and try to tell me that Michael Cohen doesn’t perfectly epitomise a mob boss. This was after he left court the other day.
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/985200901815140352
Bushfire Bill @ #23 Sunday, April 15th, 2018 – 8:17 am
Ouch! The burn! 🙂
A lurker here. I find this shocking. Another failure of the Turnbull government. Note the last paragraph.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/couchsurfing-and-living-in-cars-11-000-tertiary-students-are-homeless-20180414-p4z9ko.html
As plenty of others have said there is no strategy, just reactive responses.
Even John McCain, who’s never found a war he didn’t like, has said the US needs a long term strategy for the region.
Pritu at 8:38 am
Yes please
Clearly, the nuclear powers will not attack each other’s military assets or personnel. That is too risky. However, Putin is more than willing to attack civilians to make political, strategic or other gains. Putin has repeatedly targeted civilians in Ukraine, including the memorable destruction of a civilian aircraft carrying Australian passengers; and likewise Putin has killed civilians in Syria for political purposes. In this respect, Putin behaves like any terrorist.
daretotread. @ #5 Sunday, April 15th, 2018 – 6:36 am
Only in your fevered imagination was this ever a precursor to WWIII.
The clearly defined targets were facilities related to chemical weapons. Nothing more, nothing less.
When you talk of ‘possible outcomes’ I suppose just about everything is possible. It is just that some possibilities are plausible and others, like yours, are way out there on the outer fringes.
Did you sleep well in the bunker?
Today’s newsletter from the Jewellery Bishop fan club in WA
https://www.perthnow.com.au/opinion/joe-spagnolo/joe-spagnolo-newspoll-sets-up-julie-bishop-move-to-prime-minister-ng-b88806455z
Rossmcg @ #76 Sunday, April 15th, 2018 – 9:40 am
And if it happened, the laughter would be heard all over the world. 😀
In their willingness to use civilians – to cause their exemplary suffering as hostages – for political purposes, there is a similarity between Dutton and Putin.
Hello Mogotrone
It is disgraceful.
If there is even a hint that Bishop might challenge Turnbull, he and/or Dutton and any other aspirant will leak against her. They will destroy her chances. Bishop is very careful to always deny any wish to become leader. She must know she would be inviting political assassination were she to declare any ambition.
I’m starting to think she might be their only chance, useless though she is.
Thanks, Mogotrone. 🙂
JBishop would be a far more preferable option for Lib leader than Dutton.
Sohar @ #60 Sunday, April 15th, 2018 – 9:23 am
Briefly is not bleating Sohar, you and your Putinista mates are. I noted your pathetic splutterings about the Skripals – care to revisit your partisan bias in the light of the evidence to hand?
About the only thing in Spagnolo’s missive that is noteworthy is an aside that he regards Dutton as unelectable.
That is not a view shared by others in the commentariat.
As much as we sneer at Bishop’s ability, or lack thereof, she is good at ensuring that when all around her are losing their jobs, she keeps hers.
Whether she can parlay this skill into earning a promotion will be the thing.
RE: Russia vrs US
I feel Putin would be quite a good chess player. Trump, on the other hand, I can imagine up-ending the tiddlywinks board the moment he lost a single move.
I suspect the Russian meddling in the US election did not involve collusion – it was just Putin playing the US electorate to elect Trump as President to weaken the US and the west. if there is evidence of collusion, Putin will have orchestrated this happening (as he seems to have done with Russian contacts approaching Trump Jr, Kushner, etc.) and will release it when he needs to further weaken the US. That time may soon be approaching.
the real worry is that if Trump goes we get Pence – who probably has a chance of getting re-elected. Although I expect Trump will not seek a second term if he knows he is going to get crushed.
Sustainable future
I suspect you are wrong in your assessments
Morning all. A cold, windy, rainy Snday morning here in Adelaide. Perfect for staying in bed. I caught up with the discussion on Sydney transport last night between Aqualung and cudchewer. Both made good points. Yes, Sydney LRT is a good technology badly implemented. Yes, Sydney rail network design is flawed. Yes RMS prioritises roads over buses and now trams in a way that is not technically defensible. All highlight the unfortunate damage done to the planning capability in transport departments over the past decades. A lot of good people have left, and staff training has ground to a halt.
“French Defence Ministry said that Russia was warned beforehand about joint military attack ”
Why did French participate?
I heard that Macron is trailing in polls.
adrian @ #55 Sunday, April 15th, 2018 – 9:17 am
Good morning Adrian.
What was I right about?
Transport is a topic that fascinates me since I did a project with a railway organisation in Melbourne. On any subsequent overseas trip I have been a keen observer of the public transport system and eager to use it. It has sharpened my awareness of how badly it is done in Australia.
Germany in the late ninteen thirties had one of the largest and far and away the most well equiped miltary on Earth.
By comparison Russia in 2018 has a gigantic, clapped out pile of crap.
It couldn’t effectively suppress Turkey.
France, Germany and Britain would together wipe the floor with it.
The American’s could stay home and watch the superbowl and it would make no difference.
Even the Australian navy, lined up against Russias navy in the Pacific would give it such a black eye it would crawl back into its cave like a wounded bear and wouldn’t emerge for decades.
All the panic mechant, warmongers should just chill the fuck out.
Interesting to see the talk of coal transition. If that is what it takes to get a coal tax and money spent on shifting workers out of coal then so be it. Though I never read of blacksmithing transition funds when we made the leap from horse to horseless carriage. We just did it because it was better.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-14/coal-industry-in-transition/9644812?WT.ac=statenews_sa
My concern with such ideas is that they will be corrupted into payoffs for the companies owning the assets, who already got compensatted under the carbon tax. The workers who need to find another job? Perhaps I worry too much. They might put Barnaby in charge of the fund. He can be relied upon in ant ethical matter.
Barney in Go Dau @ #66 Sunday, April 15th, 2018 – 9:26 am
I just scroll through such rubbish posts.
I went back to bed to watch Insiders (warmer there!).
I was taking note of the number of times when the men (esp Cassidy) talked over Karen Middleton, or simply ignored her when she was trying to speak. Cassidy even addressed most of his remarks to the men on the couch.
Just sayin’.
No one has commented on Sally McManus.
She was calm throughout and contradicted Cassidy’s ‘facts’ without turning a hair.
I’m a great admirer.
Lizzie
I haven’t watched Insiders yet. Will catch up with it later to see Ms McManus
This airstrike is all too convenient for Trump (and by association his partner Putin). As the British general said why would Assad use nerve gas when he is about to claim victory. His enemies have the most to gain by provoking airstrikes against him. Saudi Arabia and their friends Israel are Syria’s main enemies at the moment. That said, no one is denying that Assad is a dictator and tyrant, it is just that he is not stupid.
lizzie:
I did not watch Insiders, sorry.
Victoria
The rest of it was quite a lot of Coorey mumbling (to me) inaudibly. 🙂
A very sober analysis of the Syrian situation.
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/985117299039522816
Lizzie
Coorey is a bona fide mumbler. Not good at communicating at all