Friday free-for-all

As the wheels begin to turn ahead of a federal election that might be held later this year, a round-up of recent preselection news.

No BludgerTrack update this week as there were no new opinion polls, which might be an issue from time to time now that Essential Research has gone from weekly to fortnightly. Newspoll and Essential will presumably both report next week, followed by a week off for Easter. So in lieu of any polling to analyse, I offer one of my occasional updates on federal preselection action.

Most of this relates to Queensland, where a federal redistribution will formally take effect next week – not that you would notice, as my calculations at the time the draft was published last year found no seat’s margin had changed by more than 0.6%. Nonetheless, BludgerTrack will henceforth be using the post-redistribution margins for it seats result projections. Redistributions for Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory, which will each gain a new seat, and South Australia, which will lose one, are presently in their early stages, and are likely to be finalised around September.

• Following his appointment as High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, George Brandis’s Queensland Liberal Senate vacancy has been filled by Brisbane barrister Amanda Stoker. Stoker won a vote of the Liberal National Party state council from a field of 12, of whom the other reported frontrunners were Joanna Lindgren, who had a stint in the Senate after filling a casual vacancy in May 2015, but was unsuccessful as the sixth candidate on the LNP ticket in 2016; Amanda Camm, a Mackay regional councillor; Andrew Wines, a Brisbane City councillor; and Teresa Harding, director of the Queensland government’s open data policy and twice unsuccessful candidate for Blair. Stoker was a favourite candidate of religious conservatives, and emphasised the point by speaking at a pro-life rally on Sunday. In this she makes a contrast with Brandis, a noted moderate.

• Labor’s candidate to take on Peter Dutton in his Brisbane seat of Dickson is Ali France, a motivational speaker and former television producer who lost a leg in a car accident in 2011, whose father is former Bligh government minister Peter Lawlor. France is aligned with the Left, and won preselection ahead of the Right’s Linda Lavarch, former state Attorney-General and wife of Keating government Attorney-General Michael Lavarch, who cut Dutton’s margin from 6.7% to 1.6% when she ran in 2016. The redistribution has slightly improved Dutton’s position, increasing his margin to 2.0%. Since winning preselection, France has faced media scrutiny over her past pronouncements against offshore detention, which have since been removed from her social media accounts.

• The Cairns Post reports Elida Faith, of the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union, has won Labor preselection for the Cairns and Cape York Peninsula seat of Leichhardt. Faith first won endorsement to run as the Left’s candidate ahead of Tania Major, an indigenous youth advocate and former Young Australian of the Year, and Allan Templeton, an electrician. She then won the preselection vote over Richie Bates, a Cairns Regional Councillor and member of the Right. Leichhardt has been held for the Liberals and then the LNP since 1996 by Warren Entsch, except following his temporary retirement in 2007, after which the seat was held for a term by Jim Turnour of Labor.

• Jo Briskey, chief executive of parent advocacy organisation The Parenthood and a former organiser with the Left faction United Voice union, will be Labor’s candidate in the Brisbane seat of Bonner. Briskey won preselection ahead of Delena Amsters, a physiotherapist aligned with the Right. While Bonner is a naturally marginal seat, Labor’s only win since its creation in 2004 came in 2007, and it has at all other times been held by the present LNP incumbent, Ross Vasta.

• Anika Wells, a lawyer with Maurice Blackburn, appears set to succeed the retiring Wayne Swan in Lilley. Wells has Swan’s endorsement, and shares his alignment with the Australian Workers Union sub-faction of the Right.

• Zac Beers, former industrial painter and scaffolder and organiser for the Right faction Australian Workers Union, has been preselected for a second run at the central Queensland seat of Flynn, where he cut LNP member Ken O’Dowd’s margin from 6.5% to 1.0% in 2016. Beers won preselection ahead of Gordon Earnshaw, a worker for Bechtel Power Corporation.

• Andrew Bartlett, who filled the Greens’ Queensland Senate vacancy arising from Larissa Waters’ Section 44 disqualification last year, will seek and presumably win preselection in the lower house seat of Brisbane. This leaves the field clear for Waters to seek to recover her Senate seat. Brisbane has been in conservative hands since 2010, and has been held for the LNP since 2016 by Trevor Evans. Bartlett ran for the Greens in 2010, his first entry with the party after his former life as leader of the Australian Democrats.

Meanwhile in New South Wales, Labor has preselected its candidates for the Sydney seats of Banks and Reid, where it suffered historically unusual defeats in 2013 and 2016. In turn:

• The candidate in Banks will again be Chris Gambian, an official with the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union, who halved the 2.8% Liberal margin when he ran in 2016. The Australian reports Gambian won a preselection ballot ahead of Lucy Mannering, a lawyer and the ex-wife of former Australian Workers Union national secretary Paul Howes, by 139 votes to 116, as adjusted by the affirmative action loading. The member for the seat is David Coleman, who became the first Liberal to win the seat since 1949 when he gained it in 2013.

• Labor’s candidate in Reid will be Sam Crosby, executive director of Labor think tank the McKell Institute. Crosby easily won preselection ahead of local branch member Frank Alafaci, by 120 votes to 19. Reid has been held by Craig Laundy since 2013, when he became the first Liberal ever to win the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,530 comments on “Friday free-for-all”

Comments Page 4 of 31
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  1. guytaur @ #41 Friday, March 23rd, 2018 – 9:02 am

    PTA2.0 – @Shellshock2048: Hey @TurnbullMalcolm – why haven’t you been up to Darwin to yet? Are they not as important to you as pulling a stunt with rich people?

    Seriously – you are PM of this country – you are not PM of just a few rich people.

    Get your f**king act together and act like a PM.

    #auspol

    PM of the country, not the PM of just a few rich people? Turnbull would regard that as fake news.

  2. From ‘Little Marco’ to ‘Cryin’ Chuck,’ all hail Melania Trump’s cyberbullying campaign

    Pushing back against her critics, Melania Trump said Tuesday she’s committed to fighting cyberbullying despite the knocks she’s gotten for addressing the issue, while her husband regularly uses Twitter to berate his foes and call them names.

    “Little Marco” Rubio, “Crooked Hillary” and captured coward-prisoner-of-war John McCain nodded in approval. “Low Energy” Jeb, Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren and “Lyin’ Ted Cruz” were equally impressed with the first lady’s keen understanding of how bullies are the most insecure and desperate people in society, with many also being impulsive narcissists.

    Though unavailable for comment due to “blood coming out of her wherever,” Megyn Kelly — and “Pig” Rosie O’Donnell and “Sleepy Eyes” Chuck Todd — fully understand this quiet, stoic bravery and valor. They know that had it not been for the debilitating pain of bone spurs on his heels, Trump would have been eager and honored to fight and even die in the Vietnam War instead of sending someone else in his place, whose name may be on The Wall.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/03/22/melania-trump-cyberbullying-campaign-cold-comfort-donald-targets-column/445448002/

  4. Sky News Australia – @SkyNewsAust: Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm: Australia understands why US President @realDonaldTrump is taking fresh action on tariffs, we support the view of ‘fair and reciprocal’ trade.

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2BuFqi1 #SkyLiveNow

  5. Looks to me like Hinch wants to do a deal with the Libs on the Tax Cuts, but is looking for some kind of cover. He can’t move without something obvious he can trumpet as a win and probably sees an increase in the levy as at least a do-able mechanism where a different tax rate was not. Looks like he is trying to come over as doing a more sophisticated deal than Hanson (Lol!).

    Sad….the tax cuts overall are just such shit policy and no amount of horse trading about irrelevant bullshit in the Senate is going to change that.

  6. TPOF

    Any thoughts of your own as to what Storer might do. I did see a report recently saying that he has mostly voted with Labor since he entered the senate to replace Xenophon.

  7. lizzie @ #149 Friday, March 23rd, 2018 – 7:40 am

    Ms Hejll said a Viking was actually something you do.

    “They were not an ethnic group or anything. You were not a Viking. You went on Viking. That was something you did,” she said.

    “A person could be a Viking in part of their life but most people and most of your life, you were farmers.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-23/everything-you-thought-you-knew-about-vikings-is-probably-wrong/9575860

    Thanks lizzie,

    More complex than in the movies!

    This is demonstrated by their presence in the north of England around York and their colonisation of places like Iceland and Greenland and also their diversity of origin.

  8. Not sure if this one was in BK’s roundup, but this is another “must read” article …

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-overpopulation-of-australia-were-running-out-of-time,11319

    Ultimately, population policy will need to be discussed at some point, as it impossible to grow indefinitely on a finite planet, particularly now that we are facing a climate emergency. Population growth has a multiplier effect on the impact of total human activity on the environment, whether we’re talking about water shortages, loss of eco-systems, displaced persons, infrastructure shortfalls and so on, and on.

    If Australia’s population is to double by 2050, our per capita impact on the environment will need to drop by 50% within 35 years just to break even. The problem is that rapid growth is making it harder for us to do just that as the urban sprawl and poor standard densification – whereby many blocks of units are built to last less than half a century – that occurs when population growth outpaces infrastructure development and urban regeneration is not only entrenching car dependency, it is also increasing our food miles through loss of the food bowls. Crucially, it is decimating local wildlife and stripping biomass in some of our most biodiverse areas.

    The sooner the community gets together to decide on fair and just population policy, rather than outsourcing the decision process to rich political lobbyists, the closer we can get to a change for the better.

    Unless you are already rich, a bigger population is going to make Australia a much worse place for you and your children to live.

  9. Cameron

    As you mentioned earlier, Rosenstein will be making a major cyber law enforcement announcement 1 am our time. In roughly 13 hours. From what I saw of annoucement the New York attorney general together with FBI reps will be present at this announcement

  12. Patrick
    ‏

    @TrickFreee
    45m45 minutes ago
    More
    Cambridge Analytica adamantly denied working on #Brexit, but that’s because they worked on Brexit through their subsidiary, AggregateIQ.

    The tiny British Columbia-based marketing company are credited by some as being the reason for the success of the Brexit campaign. Having received more than £4 million for their work on the campaign, they were responsible for around half the spending of the campaign groups on the Leave side, and yet very little is known about them. Run a quick Google search and very few stories come up, perhaps a little odd for a firm credited with causing one of the most seismic referendum results in British history.

    Data released by the Electoral Commission showed that the Vote Leave campaign had spent £3.9million, more than half of its official £7million campaign budget, on services provided by AggregateIQ (AIQ), whilst other affiliated Leave campaigns spent a further £757,750. In total, the Vote Leave campaign spent 40% of its funds, £6.8 million, on the Canadian company. So who are they? And how did they manage to remain so anonymous?

    https://medium.com/the-jist/who-are-aggregateiq-5317e48ac743

  13. The fact that storer and hinch are negotiating probably means they will both fold. They are looking for concessions. It’s just a question of price.

  14. Finland has overtaken Norway to become the happiest nation on earth, according to a UN report.

    The 2018 World Happiness Report also charts the steady decline of the US as the world’s largest economy grapples with a crisis of obesity, substance abuse and depression.

    The study reveals the US has slipped to 18th place, five places down on 2016. The top four places are taken by Nordic nations, with Finland followed by Norway, Denmark and Iceland.

    Top 10 happiest countries, 2018
    (2017 ranking in brackets)

    1. Finland (5)

    2. Norway (1)

    3. Denmark (2)

    4. Iceland (3)

    5. Switzerland (4)

    6. Netherlands (6)

    7. Canada (7)

    8. New Zealand (8)

    9. Sweden (10)

    10. Australia (9)

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/14/finland-happiest-country-world-un-report

  15. I think an important element in Australia’s population debate should be our style of housing.

    The footprints of our cities are huge in relation to their populations.

    Much of the the sprawl is caused by the MacMansions and the desire to maintain style of housing.

    A change of tact here and we could start to shrink the physical size of our cities.

    Also with appropriate planning of infrastructure and transport we could further decentralise our cities returning now developed areas to greenbelt.

    Increases in population, like climate change, will happen!

    It is more a question of how we deal with it! 🙂

  16. Victoria @ #159 Friday, March 23rd, 2018 – 12:14 pm

    Cameron

    As you mentioned earlier, Rosenstein will be making a major cyber law enforcement announcement 1 am our time. In roughly 13 hours. From what I saw of annoucement the New York attorney general together with FBI reps will be present at this announcement

    People have to start getting out front ahead of Donald Trump’s moves against them.

  17. c@t

    Is it too much to hope that Rosenstein has something substantial to say at tomorrow’s annoucement that will halt the orange tyrantassauras.

  20. guytaur @ #164 Friday, March 23rd, 2018 – 8:25 am

    Finland has overtaken Norway to become the happiest nation on earth, according to a UN report.

    The 2018 World Happiness Report also charts the steady decline of the US as the world’s largest economy grapples with a crisis of obesity, substance abuse and depression.

    The study reveals the US has slipped to 18th place, five places down on 2016. The top four places are taken by Nordic nations, with Finland followed by Norway, Denmark and Iceland.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/14/finland-happiest-country-world-un-report

    Maybe it’s their Viking heritage.

    They went out and explored the world, they saw how f@#ked up other cultures could be and thought,

    We can do better ourselves back home!!!

    🙂

  21. Sky News Australia – @SkyNewsAust: Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm: Australia understands why US President @realDonaldTrump is taking fresh action on tariffs, we support the view of ‘fair and reciprocal’ trade.

    Trumble campaigning for Labor.

  22. Barney

    Yep. This is why I argue so much we should be following the Scandinavian example not that of the US.

    On all the metrics higher taxes works. As the happiness index includes wealth as a measure you cannot argue that its a bad thing to have higher taxes. The facts are in.

  23. Barney IDG a

    Nah. Finland barely has the population of Victoria and is a fairly homogenous place. It is not useful to compare it to the USA which has over 320 million people and has a very diverse population.

  25. Victoria

    If the population is smaller than the country is less able to have higher tax rates than large populations.

    Less attractive for business investment. So goes the neo liberal argument

  26. Guytaur

    If you are suggesting it is easier to govern a diverse nation of 320 million as compared to 5 million of the same culture, you are frickin dreaming

  27. Barney

    Unfortunately returning suburban sprawl to greenbuilt is not likely to happen due to the cost. However you are right that our style of housing really needs to change away from McMansions to low rise flats and terraces as Socrates continuously mentions. We have the largest houses sizes but yet on average our occupancy is around 3 people per dwelling. We have all this space in our dwellings but its not an efficient use of land. Converting the majority of low density middle ring suburbs to terraced housing and low to mid to mid rise atound transport hubs could help to reset the balance away from sprawl.

    However convincing voters of the merits of this approach is difficult. People are resistant to change and become highly sceptical of development plans. Governments have also tended to upzone properties and then tun away without putting in the investments in schools/hospitals/transport (not motorways).

  29. Finland has overtaken Norway to become the happiest nation on earth…

    That’s until you have to go out in the snow. Or survive the mosquitos in summer.

    Anyway, the Finns are pissed most of the time. Why wouldn’t they be happy?

  31. Barney

    🙂 It’s quite a puzzle to mark the years when one moves from middle-aged to elderly and then to old. I’m prepared to admit to elderly now as it implies a time of transition, although I prefer not to state my age as it’s so defining..
    Quite a lot of writers consider that with better health outcomes, middle-aged is nearer 60 than 50.

  32. We come in at number ten.

    If we had similar taxation rates and laws as Scandinavian countries we would be a lot happier and still wealthier as those higher taxes would mostly come from foreign corporations.

    This is proof following the US model is wrong way go back

  34. Ides

    Blocks of semi-detached or townhouses would be fine as long as they’re not made of the cardboard that passes for solid walls.

  41. So free trade, a long term economic tenant of the former Liberal Party, has been ditched by our cardboard cutout PM.

    Another reset…

  43. MSM Watchdog‏ @MSMWatchdog2013 · 11m11 minutes ago

    May, 2017 ~ @ScottMorrisonMP warns welfare ‘not guaranteed’ for future generations. ‘There are no guarantees about that’ unless you are a @LiberalAus retiree with bucketloads of money.

  44. ‘ratsak says:
    Friday, March 23, 2018 at 12:37 pm

    Sky News Australia – @SkyNewsAust: Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm: Australia understands why US President @realDonaldTrump is taking fresh action on tariffs, we support the view of ‘fair and reciprocal’ trade.

    Trumble campaigning for Labor.’

    Turnbull must be itching for a bit of targetted punishment from China. The Coalition idiots keep poking the Dragon as if we are invincible and invulnerable.

  47. C@tmomma says: Friday, March 23, 2018 at 12:50 pm

    Victoria @ #167 Friday, March 23rd, 2018 – 12:27 pm

    c@t

    Is it too much to hope that Rosenstein has something substantial to say at tomorrow’s annoucement that will halt the orange tyrantassauras.

    Why are these people so prim and proper!?! They should just go rogue like Trump! But for the right reasons

    **********************************************

    I am not sure what others on here think – but any FORCED removal of Trump will be US Civil War Part 2 – how bad could it get ????? – not even sure of overwhelming evidence of foreign collusion etc would even matter with some of them out there ????

  49. phoenixRED @ #197 Friday, March 23rd, 2018 – 1:03 pm

    C@tmomma says: Friday, March 23, 2018 at 12:50 pm

    Victoria @ #167 Friday, March 23rd, 2018 – 12:27 pm

    c@t

    Is it too much to hope that Rosenstein has something substantial to say at tomorrow’s annoucement that will halt the orange tyrantassauras.

    Why are these people so prim and proper!?! They should just go rogue like Trump! But for the right reasons

    **********************************************

    I am not sure what others on here think – but any FORCED removal of Trump will be US Civil War Part 2 – how bad could it get ?????

    World War 3?

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