10.17pm. Thornbury pre-poll also swings slightly to Labor.
10.00pm. The Bundoora pre-poll voting centre has reported, and it produced a result typical for the electorate in swinging slightly to Labor. We will presumably get a further three pre-poll voting centres this evening, and presumably also a batch of postals.
8.36pm. Only pre-poll voting centres now outstanding, on the primary vote at least.
8.27pm. Labor’s small but seemingly decisive lead is holding more or less firm, now at 2.9% on my projection. Most of what remains is the large pre-poll voting centres.
8.17pm. The tide keeps flowing to Labor, with my model (3.4%) now more bullish for them than the ABC’s (1.9%).
8.13pm. Not sure where exactly, but a very good result has come in for Labor, pushing their lead out to a near-insurmountable 2.9% on my projected measure, which now differs only slightly from the raw result of 3.2%.
8.08pm. Most of the polling day booths are in now, and I’ve got Labor’s lead firming very slightly. If the Greens have a hope, it’s that a different dynamic will play out in the pre-poll voting centres.
8.01pm. As the count slowly creeps up, Labor retains its lead of around 1.5%. The Greens will want a couple of good results to come through pretty soon.
7.56pm. With around half the booths now in, the distinction between my model and the ABC’s has all but disappeared: Labor holding in both cases with a 1.5% margin.
7.54pm. Now I’ve got Labor’s lead out to 1.4%, which is a handy place to be with 40% of the vote counted, but not yet bolted down.
7.45pm. Yet another change of lead on my projection, but I’ve got the lead at 0.9% compared to the ABC’s 1.5%. ABC still staying Labor retain, I’m still saying too early to call.
7.42pm. The ABC computer is calling it for Labor, but it’s making no effort as I am to project preference flows on to seats where only the primary vote has reported, which is around half of them.
7.38pm. My hope that this might be sorted early on and I could devote my energies to South Australia is not being realised: once again my projected lead has changed hands, in large part because Labor’s preference share has now declined to 65%.
7.35pm. Now with over a quarter of the vote counted, Labor leads on the raw vote, but I’m projecting that to come back a little. Very close, in a nutshell, but Labor slightly favoured.
7.31pm. And now I’ve got the Greens with their nose in front. There are six booths in on two-party, none of which have swung much, but big swings to Labor in some of the booths in which we only have two-party numbers. The preference flow from the latter is being projected on to the former, and I’ve got Labor getting 69.4% of them.
7.25pm. Now with more substantial numbers in, it’s looking very tight – absolutely no swing at all on my two-party projection, with 12 counted in primary and five on two-party.
7.19pm. Some better results for the Greens send the pendulum back their way. My preference model is now going entirely off results from this election, and Labor is receiving 71.9% of them — 337 to 132 to be precise, going off the three booths that are in on two-party.
7.17pm. Labor have had some thumpingly good results in Alphington North and Collingwood, such that the ABC is projecting a 6% swing in their favour, and I’m projecting 7%.
7.11pm. Been sorting through a lot of technical problems with my live reporting, and I think I’m past the worst of them. So we’ve got three booths in on the primary vote and two in on two-party preferred, and my assessment is that it’s looking tight but with the Greens with their nose in front. For the time being though, this is largely based on a preference flow derived from the Northcote state election result, and the very early indications are that they might do better than that.
7pm. A very small polling booth called Murray, with 249 votes cast, has the Greens up 8.5% on the primary vote and Labor steady.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Batman by-election. This being an inner-city seat with large booths, it should take a while for us to start seeing numbers – perhaps as long as an hour. Wish me luck with my live results reporting facility.
Click here for more detailed (and better formatted) results.
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“Labor holding in both cases with a 1.5% margin.”
Go the Bowe!!!
Many thanks for the thread William.
Happy news from my particular tribal perspective. 🙂
The majority of the booths are up in the North of the seat. I think Labor is home. The postal votes will flow more to them too.
Surely, this reflects badly on the Greens Leadership. Combined with the bad Tassie result and what appears to be a reasonably weak result in SA, things are not going to be too happy in Greenland.
I think we can call this one for Labor and move over to the SA Election thread.
I’ve got my laptop, phone, tablet and TV going here 🙂
Of course, if it wasn’t for Shorten, Williams would have packed up and moved to SA by now.
Sounds like a no change result – maybe the lesson of s44 is its much a do about nothing – voters don’t like having their choice rolled on a technicality.
Alex Bhathal may be prove that persistence doesn’t always gain the prize. After 6 goes it may be time to try something else.
zoomster @ #90 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 7:54 pm
Every single elector I saw interviewed went to the traditional issues of Health, Education and Child Care.
The Black Wiggle is carbonised!
The Black Wiggle is carbonised!
at the AEC site, Ged is pulling further away on the PV…will finish well in front…
“Here comes the ugly gloating.”
Yup it does you idiot blot on the species. Naff of then and let the adults enjoy it.
Eddy sweetie, what are you going to do with all those gloats you had stored up if the greens lose ?
So Labor’s strategy to pick a candidate that appeals to Greens voters seems to have worked. 🙂
Edwina StJohn @ #91 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 7:55 pm
You mean like you usually do?
But its not over yet.
When occasionally (and I mean very occasionally) i waste 30 seconds on you imacca, i think its a pity in your case stupid isn’t painful.
I wonder how much of the good performance of the ALP is due to David Feeney setting the ALP vote to a low ebb at the last election and Ged being an outstanding candidate.
My first St Patrick’s Day Guiness is tasting pretty good.
Appears the result will approach 52/48….excellent result…Labor defeat the Libs (who failed to contest) and their surrogates. Great portent for the general election…
You know, Ive fronted up – win , lose or draw.
And if Bhathal had won Batman, ESJ would have ejaculated gloat all over the thread.
Almost 47% counted.
LoL,
ESJ upset and on the nasty pills.
Rexy will cuddle you ok ESJ. And Remember…….
ITS ALL BILL SHORTENS FAULT!!!!!!!
Rossmcg @ #113 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 8:04 pm
I didn’t know that Scots celebrated St Pats Day!?! 😉
You just reminded me.
Edwina StJohn @ #115 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 8:05 pm
Yep. Your motto –
“In victory, revenge – In Defeat, malice.
Do you think the ABC computer called it early because it was impatient and wanted to focus on SA?
Nice to see Williams projected swing now matches the ABC.
The other thing which should be noted is Victoria is undergoing a redistribution at the moment (to gain an additional seat and rebalance things). It is highly likely that Batman will not look the same at the next federal election (also there has been a push to scrap the name too). The thing is we are yet to find out if the seat is going to get more or less Green. So the effort in building the candidates profile may not have been completely in vain.
@ESJ-
“Here comes the ugly gloating. Shame for the country if Labor gets back into Batman but life will go on splendidly regardless”
For someone who spend the last week indulging in some premature anti labor gloating boardering in schadenfreude that statement is breathtaking in its lack of personal insight
One think this does prove is having a good local candidate is important.
Looking good for Labor. Please Greens dump Di Natale as leader. He is hopeless.
I can assure you all my life will be fine. I think its sad to have another ACTU Lord/Lady inflicted on a seat but there it is.
Its a setback for the Greens – but they’ll be back. The trends favour them.
Off to dinner. Will taste nicer tonight i think.. 🙂
Doesn’t reflect well on Turnbull after his relentless goading of Shorten over the bi-election, not well at all.
Yes and I for one will give you credit for that. I’ve also noticed that you have been providing some useful information regarding the count. Good to see.
C@t
Haha, I have some Irish through my paternal grandmother, my maternal grandmother was Scots but her family may have been refugees from Ireland.
And I don’t usually need excuse for a Guinness!
C@
Actually, they’ve gone back to a traditional Labor style candidate. Usually against Greens Labor runs people who talk about their enviro friendly cred.
Edwina StJohn says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 8:09 pm
Its a setback for the Greens – but they’ll be back. The trends favour them.
Trend? You mean stagnation?
ESJ
‘ The trends favour them.’
You don’t handle this evidence thing very well, do you?
The trends show the Greens going nowhere.
I’m on my second Guinness to be sure!
The demographic trends zoomy.
One battle doesn’t end a war.
Fingers crossed for Labor. I didn’t engage much at all with the Batman happenings, but my impression from afar was the Greens ran a very negative and personal campaign against Kearney which hopefully has backfired with a Labor win.
Ironic result for St Patrick’s day.
Even if the A.L.P wins on 52-48 it seems pretty clear now that in the short to medium term Batman will go Green. Kearney becoming a prominent Minister may delay that, similarly what Tanner did in Melbourne. Preston is gentrifying at a very rapid rate. Time is on their side.
Yep. Greens down from a Federal Election high of about 15% to about 10% now.
Great trend – long may it continue.
The Trend is not always your friend.
Dirty Dick – time to hit the bend?
dwina StJohn says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 8:14 pm
The demographic trends zoom.
The only trend that will be extrapolated will be the tendency for the bourgeois vote to consolidate under the flag of the Blue Tories. We’ve seen peak Crypto!
Cheers Paddy
Labor lead now 53.4%
“Is there any sense in SA that you’ve gone a bit early on some renewables? ”
There definitely was a year ago after 24 hours of statewide blackouts, huge power bills and unreliable power.
Now we’ve got the battery, minimal blackouts and everyone else has huge power bills as well.
So how are they going to keep up the leadershit stuff against Shorten now?
SA thread for those wanting a change of pace 🙂
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/03/17/south-australian-election-live-2/
I reckon the Cory’s Conservatives would be very disappointed with their result. This and their bad result in SA will see them losing backers (those with deep wallets have not exactly flocked to the brand).