10.17pm. Thornbury pre-poll also swings slightly to Labor.
10.00pm. The Bundoora pre-poll voting centre has reported, and it produced a result typical for the electorate in swinging slightly to Labor. We will presumably get a further three pre-poll voting centres this evening, and presumably also a batch of postals.
8.36pm. Only pre-poll voting centres now outstanding, on the primary vote at least.
8.27pm. Labor’s small but seemingly decisive lead is holding more or less firm, now at 2.9% on my projection. Most of what remains is the large pre-poll voting centres.
8.17pm. The tide keeps flowing to Labor, with my model (3.4%) now more bullish for them than the ABC’s (1.9%).
8.13pm. Not sure where exactly, but a very good result has come in for Labor, pushing their lead out to a near-insurmountable 2.9% on my projected measure, which now differs only slightly from the raw result of 3.2%.
8.08pm. Most of the polling day booths are in now, and I’ve got Labor’s lead firming very slightly. If the Greens have a hope, it’s that a different dynamic will play out in the pre-poll voting centres.
8.01pm. As the count slowly creeps up, Labor retains its lead of around 1.5%. The Greens will want a couple of good results to come through pretty soon.
7.56pm. With around half the booths now in, the distinction between my model and the ABC’s has all but disappeared: Labor holding in both cases with a 1.5% margin.
7.54pm. Now I’ve got Labor’s lead out to 1.4%, which is a handy place to be with 40% of the vote counted, but not yet bolted down.
7.45pm. Yet another change of lead on my projection, but I’ve got the lead at 0.9% compared to the ABC’s 1.5%. ABC still staying Labor retain, I’m still saying too early to call.
7.42pm. The ABC computer is calling it for Labor, but it’s making no effort as I am to project preference flows on to seats where only the primary vote has reported, which is around half of them.
7.38pm. My hope that this might be sorted early on and I could devote my energies to South Australia is not being realised: once again my projected lead has changed hands, in large part because Labor’s preference share has now declined to 65%.
7.35pm. Now with over a quarter of the vote counted, Labor leads on the raw vote, but I’m projecting that to come back a little. Very close, in a nutshell, but Labor slightly favoured.
7.31pm. And now I’ve got the Greens with their nose in front. There are six booths in on two-party, none of which have swung much, but big swings to Labor in some of the booths in which we only have two-party numbers. The preference flow from the latter is being projected on to the former, and I’ve got Labor getting 69.4% of them.
7.25pm. Now with more substantial numbers in, it’s looking very tight – absolutely no swing at all on my two-party projection, with 12 counted in primary and five on two-party.
7.19pm. Some better results for the Greens send the pendulum back their way. My preference model is now going entirely off results from this election, and Labor is receiving 71.9% of them — 337 to 132 to be precise, going off the three booths that are in on two-party.
7.17pm. Labor have had some thumpingly good results in Alphington North and Collingwood, such that the ABC is projecting a 6% swing in their favour, and I’m projecting 7%.
7.11pm. Been sorting through a lot of technical problems with my live reporting, and I think I’m past the worst of them. So we’ve got three booths in on the primary vote and two in on two-party preferred, and my assessment is that it’s looking tight but with the Greens with their nose in front. For the time being though, this is largely based on a preference flow derived from the Northcote state election result, and the very early indications are that they might do better than that.
7pm. A very small polling booth called Murray, with 249 votes cast, has the Greens up 8.5% on the primary vote and Labor steady.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Batman by-election. This being an inner-city seat with large booths, it should take a while for us to start seeing numbers – perhaps as long as an hour. Wish me luck with my live results reporting facility.
Click here for more detailed (and better formatted) results.
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Someone posted a photo of an editorial from your newspaper today that said power bills were down since the Musk battery.
Probyn on ABC24 seems to have written his report before the result. It was all about why Labor has struggle to hold the seat.
Anyone calling it yet?
The proposal to reform franked dividend tax treatment seems to have worked very well. So good of the MSM , the LNP and the Cryptonites to campaign for Labor on this theme too….excellent result for tax justice.
Wow this is an awful result for the watermelons, the black wiggle needs to resign Now!!!
I think so nath. People forget but the Labor right used to own the inner cities – and then with demographic change they became strong holds of the Labor Left. The next shift is to the Greens.
Look at the electorate of Sydney – it might be Tanya Plibersek’s seat but it contains 2 Greens state MP’s and a very strong Greens presence in the Local Councils. It might take a future Plibersek retirement but it will flip.
Maybe Kearney will be the last Labor MP for Batman instead of the fatman in batman but it will still come to pass.
Sheesh Andrew Probyn on ABC managed to talk for 5 mins without acknowledging that the likely Batman result is gold for Shorten and the ALP. He must have had a different script prepared and was most annoyed he couldn’t use it.
Work To Rule @ #152 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 8:23 pm
Yes. Very sour. It’s all Labor’s fault that they won, apparently.
Diogenes says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 8:22 pm
Anyone calling it yet?
An excellent result for the political representatives of working people!!
Obviously Shorten’s own goal of announcing his tax grab before the by-election has been disastrous ……oh wait.
By the way, has anyone seen any sign of Rex?
If The Greens had another leader, they would have won Batman. 🙂
Work To Rule @ #157 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 8:23 pm
Yep. Its so fcken obvious.
ABC = very damaged goods.
Edwina StJohn says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 8:23 pm
I think so nath. People forget but the Labor right used to own the inner cities – and then with demographic change they became strong holds of the Labor Left. The next shift is to the Greens.
Look at the electorate of Sydney – it might be Tanya Plibersek’s seat but it contains 2 Greens state MP’s and a very strong Greens presence in the Local Councils. It might take a future Plibersek retirement but it will flip.
The Gs will be subsumed by their Tory chums. No doubt about that.
C@tmomma @ #161 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 8:25 pm
I join the queue to take a kick, with run up, to kick dirty dick.
I also think that local or state govt politics and federal politics have little bearing on each other … the fact that the state govt went to greens does not automatically translate to the federal seat since the purpose of each level of govt is different
Rex is getting his “Shorten and Labor should of won by more ” routine ready.
Bill Shorten is a genius if Labor wins this. Best leader since Keating. I am in no doubt about that.
I agree with you on Sydney StJohn. In 10 years there will be a clutch (3-4) of inner city Green seats in Fed Parliament. So Long term we may be looking at 2 Federal Coalitions. who knows.
Almost 55% counted.
I think Zoomster got it right an hour or so ago.
The Greens campaigned on Adani but people know electing a Green in Batman wouldn’t make a blind bit of difference to whether Adani went ahead.
Unless of course it forced Shorten to panic and suddenly switch his position to outright opposition.
Shorten has held his nerve in the face of some outrageous scare campaigns from the masters of it, the Liberals. He has done it again.
Well, well, well
Well, I’m calling it. Greens aren’t going to come back from here on pre-polls.
poroti @ #169 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 8:28 pm
Putin 🙂
Only pre-poll and hospital not counted in Batman. I think Ged will win with a 1% swing to her as there is not enough votes left. Congratulations to her, and commiserations to Bathal.
Guess the gypped by the Boomers Millenials outnumber the Boomers who cashed in on The Rodent’s bribery .
Didn’t words like Tories and Bourgeois become irrelevant when the A.L.P government scrapped the single mothers pension?
BK @ #143 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 8:18 pm
Hmm, let me see…
‘Labor would have won the seat comfortably, if it wasn’t for the fact that Bill Shorten was leading the Labor Party.’
#RexonPB
Yes agree Ides. Im calling it for Kearney.
There will bitter recriminations in the divided Green camp.
Maybe Labor deserves Shorten. He’ll be the third anti-party leader in 20 years.it’ll make RGR look like a Sunday School bible study group.
Edwina StJohn @ #179 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 8:31 pm
I can almost ‘taste’ the ashes in your mouth.
Nope no really.
Rex, It’s obvious that Labor would have won by more if Albo was leader.
And the Greens would have won if they didn’t virtue signal their campaign, had preselected a candidate who wasn’t ‘polarising’, and had a leader who trailed his black skivvy in front of the Liberal voters.
ESJ, clearly this return of Batman to the natural order is a fluke. Us inner city dwellers in the major cities will obviously flock to the Greens.
Ged was saying she was anti-Adani anyway (or something to those words) so campaigning against Adani wouldn’t make any contrast at all in that seat.
While I am not counting any chickens, the Batman vote appears to be reflecting the national 2PP
This is very bad news for Di Natalie. His comments about tax in the last few days were abominable. Meg Lees like in fact.
Yes. Sad.
Return to the natural order in Batman would have been an A.L.P 2pp of around 60. Reading comprehension is terrible in this country.
And over the border, it looks like Slum Lord Xenephon has lost his seat and lost his shirt.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 8:25 pm
If The Greens had another leader, they would have won Batman.
If they campaigned on issues that are relevant to voters in Melbourne they may have a better chance…Adani…pffttt!
If they had campaigned against Dutton instead of Labor on refugee issue, they may not hav lost support…
Eventually they will learn that by campaigning against Labor they alienate Labor-positive support.
Lynchpin @ #181 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 8:35 pm
Little Lib Fake Left.
Bullshit Edwin.
Shorten will be a magnificent Labor PM.
ESJ – Famous last words ?
Perhaps Malcolm can give Bill the address of a decent tailor
briefly,
My comment about The Greens’ leader was tongue in cheek and reflecting the mirror image of what Rex would have said had Bhathal won. 🙂
Where’s Pegasus!?!
Where’s bakunin!?!
Where’s Nicholas!?!
🙂
sprocket_ @ #189 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 8:36 pm
More ‘refreshment’ placed in the chiller 🙂
Yes, that thought occurred to me too.
I have to say I am surprised but well done Ged Kearney and Bill Shorten! I have been thoroughly dissappointed with the Labor backflips on Adani but the tax policy on ending refund rorts was great and has clearly helped.
If Bahthal cannot win in a bielection after the Feeney embarrasement she never will. She should stand aside and let a new candidate try.
Briefly
Same strategic error in the Harbour City. The Greens should be carpet bombing Liberal held Wentworth and North Sydney, not Labor held Sydney and Grayndler.