10.17pm. Thornbury pre-poll also swings slightly to Labor.
10.00pm. The Bundoora pre-poll voting centre has reported, and it produced a result typical for the electorate in swinging slightly to Labor. We will presumably get a further three pre-poll voting centres this evening, and presumably also a batch of postals.
8.36pm. Only pre-poll voting centres now outstanding, on the primary vote at least.
8.27pm. Labor’s small but seemingly decisive lead is holding more or less firm, now at 2.9% on my projection. Most of what remains is the large pre-poll voting centres.
8.17pm. The tide keeps flowing to Labor, with my model (3.4%) now more bullish for them than the ABC’s (1.9%).
8.13pm. Not sure where exactly, but a very good result has come in for Labor, pushing their lead out to a near-insurmountable 2.9% on my projected measure, which now differs only slightly from the raw result of 3.2%.
8.08pm. Most of the polling day booths are in now, and I’ve got Labor’s lead firming very slightly. If the Greens have a hope, it’s that a different dynamic will play out in the pre-poll voting centres.
8.01pm. As the count slowly creeps up, Labor retains its lead of around 1.5%. The Greens will want a couple of good results to come through pretty soon.
7.56pm. With around half the booths now in, the distinction between my model and the ABC’s has all but disappeared: Labor holding in both cases with a 1.5% margin.
7.54pm. Now I’ve got Labor’s lead out to 1.4%, which is a handy place to be with 40% of the vote counted, but not yet bolted down.
7.45pm. Yet another change of lead on my projection, but I’ve got the lead at 0.9% compared to the ABC’s 1.5%. ABC still staying Labor retain, I’m still saying too early to call.
7.42pm. The ABC computer is calling it for Labor, but it’s making no effort as I am to project preference flows on to seats where only the primary vote has reported, which is around half of them.
7.38pm. My hope that this might be sorted early on and I could devote my energies to South Australia is not being realised: once again my projected lead has changed hands, in large part because Labor’s preference share has now declined to 65%.
7.35pm. Now with over a quarter of the vote counted, Labor leads on the raw vote, but I’m projecting that to come back a little. Very close, in a nutshell, but Labor slightly favoured.
7.31pm. And now I’ve got the Greens with their nose in front. There are six booths in on two-party, none of which have swung much, but big swings to Labor in some of the booths in which we only have two-party numbers. The preference flow from the latter is being projected on to the former, and I’ve got Labor getting 69.4% of them.
7.25pm. Now with more substantial numbers in, it’s looking very tight – absolutely no swing at all on my two-party projection, with 12 counted in primary and five on two-party.
7.19pm. Some better results for the Greens send the pendulum back their way. My preference model is now going entirely off results from this election, and Labor is receiving 71.9% of them — 337 to 132 to be precise, going off the three booths that are in on two-party.
7.17pm. Labor have had some thumpingly good results in Alphington North and Collingwood, such that the ABC is projecting a 6% swing in their favour, and I’m projecting 7%.
7.11pm. Been sorting through a lot of technical problems with my live reporting, and I think I’m past the worst of them. So we’ve got three booths in on the primary vote and two in on two-party preferred, and my assessment is that it’s looking tight but with the Greens with their nose in front. For the time being though, this is largely based on a preference flow derived from the Northcote state election result, and the very early indications are that they might do better than that.
7pm. A very small polling booth called Murray, with 249 votes cast, has the Greens up 8.5% on the primary vote and Labor steady.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Batman by-election. This being an inner-city seat with large booths, it should take a while for us to start seeing numbers – perhaps as long as an hour. Wish me luck with my live results reporting facility.
Click here for more detailed (and better formatted) results.
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Luck, William!
Still anybody’s game…
Have a fun night everyone. I hope all the voters got a democracy sausage, beef, pork or tofu.
I don’t know what’s in vegie sausages, but I found them pretty gross even back when I was a vegetarian.
Let’s hope this is as exciting as the US special election last week!
Batman and SA to juggle. This will be fun!
Good luck William!
D
And a Happy St Paddy’s day to all! Lets Shamrock and Roll!
Good luck William in handling two elections.
There’s also the Cottesloe by-election today too.
Hope Labor goes down for this devious robocall attack.
Who will the Liberal voters hate least? Unionist or Green. Should be a hard choice for many of them.
Are non-SA bludgers more interested in Batman or SA? My strong suspicion is Batman.
Good luck William 🙂
Both for me Diogenes. But I’ve always been addicted to elections, even ones where I think my preferred candidates & parties will lose.
Diogenes @ #11 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 5:20 pm
SA. Much more impact on the whole country.
Dio
From 6.30 to 7.30pm (AEDT) its all about Batman. 7.30-8pm is both. 8pm onwards SA.
As a Vic, I’m interested in how Batman goes today, partly to foreshadow whether the Greens are likely to take a few more inner-city Melbourne seats (and potentially balance of power) in this year’s state election.
But I’m also very keen to see how SA turns out. Somehow I feel quite worried about the repercussions of the SA election overall. A Lib win will embolden the worst elements of the conservatives in Canberra, even if they’re still headed for a cliff next year.
“Are non-SA bludgers more interested in Batman or SA? My strong suspicion is Batman.”
Nah Batman is a nothing burger but SA is important, lets hope you get the libs with help from LibX and they get on the nose quickly, a big sacrifice for SA but it will help the nation.
ajm
But isn’t Batman a major battle in the Green v Labor War. This is a litmus test of the Greens; it’s the kind of seat they have to win to become more than bit players in Australian politics. They need momentum badly as they have stalled.
Dio:
SA
If Labor loses SA it will another setback for innovation and sustainable energy. A Lib govt will reversa al the gains.
Diogenes @ #18 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 5:27 pm
Could be too influenced by issues of the moment to be of much long term importance.
Expat
I strongly believe there are absolutely no national ramifications from the SA election, in terms of Turnbull v Shorten.
And WWP is probably right that a Lib win here with X propping them up would be good for fed Labor, one or two seats worth, as they will damage the Lib brand if they get anywhere near power.
Dio
There are two other national implications, IMO.
The first is for negotiations around the NEG.
The second is that the Fed Coalition will have to stop trying to pretend that it is running as an Opposition to state Labor in South Australia.
Diogenes @ #18 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 3:27 pm
A GRN or LAB win in Batman is essentially meaningless. A Lib or SAB win in SA has implications for the country in terms of renewable energy investment.
ESJ
Still spreading lies. And you’d treat a politician who did the same in utter contempt. You think you’d aim for a higher standard.
What Boerwar said.
I completely agree that a Labor win in SA helps reframe arguments like renewable energy, Murray water and battery technology. It’s definitely good for all those. But I don’t think Shorten or Turnbull will come out after and say it vindicates them. We haven’t seen them in SA.
“This is a litmus test of the Greens; it’s the kind of seat they have to win to become more than bit players in Australian politics. ”
Heard of the Senate……?
Anyway Greens will never vary much from 10%, as they are anti-populist & evidence based, unlike all the other major parties.
zoomy – Labor has form on robocalls – look at the medicare txt on the last federal election campaign?
Cui bono? Labor releases a policy which goes down badly with the elderly – and amazingly someone robocalls the electorate saying over 70’s needn’t vote!
ESJ
No one, apart from you, is suggesting that Labor had anything to do with it.
You’re being dishonest, something you lecture politicians about.
Diogenes @ #27 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 5:39 pm
Not interested in who is “vindicated”. There will be REAL effects from SA, not just PR ones.
‘Diogenes says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 6:39 pm
I completely agree that a Labor win in SA helps reframe arguments like renewable energy, Murray water and battery technology. It’s definitely good for all those. But I don’t think Shorten or Turnbull will come out after and say it vindicates them. We haven’t seen them in SA.’
Tend to agree.
If Labor hang on in SA there will likely be further upheaval on the Right, which is already split 3 ways. Hopefully they will disintegrate even more….
Vic
The Greens have a long term goal of taking inner city seats from Labor, for better or worse. That’s why this election is disproportionately important to both parties.
As Did said not only have we seen almost nothing of Turnbull or Shorten in SA, but the debate has been about state issues almost entirely. Oakden and the RE battery storage being cases in point.
Vic Lib leader Matthew Guy turned up in SA today. Do they have better lobsters in Adelaide? 😛
Hey Expat
I don’t know what’s in vegie sausages, but I found them pretty gross even back when I was a vegetarian.
Try the Aldi vegie sausages, Mrs V1J & I reckon they are the best on the market.
I like my Sony TV so much that I have turned off Pyne to prevent my shoe from being thrown through it !
My principle on vegetarian or for that matter gluten free food, is to not eat food that is an attempt to replicate meat (or gluten) food.
So no vege sausages or GF bread or pasta.
However a lot of both are excellent.
Good luck tonight Labor.
In Batman I think the elderly vote would skew Labor.
Is there any sense in SA that you’ve gone a bit early on some renewables? The battery has already proved itself to anyone who pays any attention, but you have a second in the world thermal storage solar (or whatever it is called) coming on? If that works or fails in a way that can be corrected in attempt three I’d love WA to move to replace coal with it in Collie.
Do they Lobsters in SA? of course they do… they even have the big lobster.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Lobster
One small booth in Batman. 39.8% Lab, 39% Grn, 6.8% conservative
ESJ – you REALLY need facts, even whilst trolling.
ABC has GED doing well (later figs than above) but doesn’t say which booths!!!! 1500 v 1200 votes
Labor are so far in front!
Put down the glas.sses.
If the Greens can’t even pick up a seat like Batman, what does that say about the direction of their leadership following the Tasmanian flogging?
2.7% counted in Batman. 2.1% swing to Greens.
Seth @ #45 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 7:00 pm
They’ve got added delusion with the SA vote!
looks like labor’s doing well on early figures
I am interested in how the Conservatives go compared to the Liberals. The Liberals got a tad under 20% in 2016, so I Cory’s Crowd would be happy with double figures.