Batman by-election live

Super Saturday, phase one: live coverage of the count for the Batman by-election.

10.17pm. Thornbury pre-poll also swings slightly to Labor.

10.00pm. The Bundoora pre-poll voting centre has reported, and it produced a result typical for the electorate in swinging slightly to Labor. We will presumably get a further three pre-poll voting centres this evening, and presumably also a batch of postals.

8.36pm. Only pre-poll voting centres now outstanding, on the primary vote at least.

8.27pm. Labor’s small but seemingly decisive lead is holding more or less firm, now at 2.9% on my projection. Most of what remains is the large pre-poll voting centres.

8.17pm. The tide keeps flowing to Labor, with my model (3.4%) now more bullish for them than the ABC’s (1.9%).

8.13pm. Not sure where exactly, but a very good result has come in for Labor, pushing their lead out to a near-insurmountable 2.9% on my projected measure, which now differs only slightly from the raw result of 3.2%.

8.08pm. Most of the polling day booths are in now, and I’ve got Labor’s lead firming very slightly. If the Greens have a hope, it’s that a different dynamic will play out in the pre-poll voting centres.

8.01pm. As the count slowly creeps up, Labor retains its lead of around 1.5%. The Greens will want a couple of good results to come through pretty soon.

7.56pm. With around half the booths now in, the distinction between my model and the ABC’s has all but disappeared: Labor holding in both cases with a 1.5% margin.

7.54pm. Now I’ve got Labor’s lead out to 1.4%, which is a handy place to be with 40% of the vote counted, but not yet bolted down.

7.45pm. Yet another change of lead on my projection, but I’ve got the lead at 0.9% compared to the ABC’s 1.5%. ABC still staying Labor retain, I’m still saying too early to call.

7.42pm. The ABC computer is calling it for Labor, but it’s making no effort as I am to project preference flows on to seats where only the primary vote has reported, which is around half of them.

7.38pm. My hope that this might be sorted early on and I could devote my energies to South Australia is not being realised: once again my projected lead has changed hands, in large part because Labor’s preference share has now declined to 65%.

7.35pm. Now with over a quarter of the vote counted, Labor leads on the raw vote, but I’m projecting that to come back a little. Very close, in a nutshell, but Labor slightly favoured.

7.31pm. And now I’ve got the Greens with their nose in front. There are six booths in on two-party, none of which have swung much, but big swings to Labor in some of the booths in which we only have two-party numbers. The preference flow from the latter is being projected on to the former, and I’ve got Labor getting 69.4% of them.

7.25pm. Now with more substantial numbers in, it’s looking very tight – absolutely no swing at all on my two-party projection, with 12 counted in primary and five on two-party.

7.19pm. Some better results for the Greens send the pendulum back their way. My preference model is now going entirely off results from this election, and Labor is receiving 71.9% of them — 337 to 132 to be precise, going off the three booths that are in on two-party.

7.17pm. Labor have had some thumpingly good results in Alphington North and Collingwood, such that the ABC is projecting a 6% swing in their favour, and I’m projecting 7%.

7.11pm. Been sorting through a lot of technical problems with my live reporting, and I think I’m past the worst of them. So we’ve got three booths in on the primary vote and two in on two-party preferred, and my assessment is that it’s looking tight but with the Greens with their nose in front. For the time being though, this is largely based on a preference flow derived from the Northcote state election result, and the very early indications are that they might do better than that.

7pm. A very small polling booth called Murray, with 249 votes cast, has the Greens up 8.5% on the primary vote and Labor steady.

6pm. Polls have closed for the Batman by-election. This being an inner-city seat with large booths, it should take a while for us to start seeing numbers – perhaps as long as an hour. Wish me luck with my live results reporting facility.

Click here for more detailed (and better formatted) results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

482 comments on “Batman by-election live”

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  1. nope i was wrong, seems greens are smashing it. Should have noticed that that first booth was actually big swing to greens. I think it will be an early night in batman.

  2. Viewed formal afar, ie Perth, and as a sometime SA resident in the 80s I still take an interest there.

    Weatherill seems to me to be a modern politician, pragmatic, able to move with the times and pretty honest in the interviews I have seen. He doesn’t repeat the talking points.

    The facts that the Libs toss up people like Pyne and Bernadi (till he left) and speaks volumes. If that is he best they have the bunch left behind for state seats must be very ordinary indeed.

  3. Diogenes @ #34 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 5:43 pm

    The Greens have a long term goal of taking inner city seats from Labor, for better or worse. That’s why this election is disproportionately important to both parties.

    This election isn’t going to be that indicative if a large number of Liberal voters don’t turn out. At the next Fed election the Libs will also be running a candidate, so tonights result might not predict what’s going to happen next time around.

  4. …and now it’s swung back again…

    Interesting bit on twitter, that something like 55% of the postal vote requests came through the Labor party, an increase of 14% on last time. There were also 2000 more postal vote requests.

  5. Edwina StJohn
    Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 7:16 pm
    Depends whether the booths are from the northern or southern end.

    Yes, it could flip around a few more times yet. Looking tight.

  6. Edwina StJohn – Cory Tories have put the Greens last, but of course who knows how many of their voters will follow the HTV card, or even got one.

  7. The Bell St divide in Batman is not holding.

    Strong swings to the Greens north of Bell St, strong swings to Labor below.

  8. The problem with calculating swings is that this isn’t a traditional Liberal ,Labor seat, also a by election with lower turnout, no Liberal candidate. Also by elections can swing against National 2pp trends.

  9. Greens ahead by about 3% on primaries atm – last time they were ahead about 0.9% on primary. Still if preferences go strongly against the Greens.

  10. From the graun

    3m ago 08:29
    Ben Raue

    We have six booths reporting preferences now. Labor has dropped by over 4% in Reservoir but are gaining small swings in the five other booths.

    The overall swing to the Greens sits at 0.55%, short of what they need to win. The trend in those booths doesn’t look good for the Greens but the swings to Labor aren’t big enough to close the door.

  11. Labor appears to be ahead by a nose. Apparently they’re worried about the northern booths, where the Libs have gone Green. Bandt said to be looking stressed (well, not sure what that’s worth…)

  12. ESJ,

    Looking at the 6 booths that have currently reported actual TPP, the ALP have improved in 5, although the other booth swung 4.5% to the Greens.

    I don’t think the LNP opting out has made much difference.

  13. From the booths that are in, it looks like Labor is improving in the strongest green areas (Collingwood, Northcote, Alphington) but the Greens have improved in Old Labor areas in the north. That would be a match for Ged being a more attractive candidate than David Feeney in the South but the tsunami of rising house prices lapping on the shores of Edwards Lake. (Reservoir for non northern melbourne suburbs people)

  14. Libs voting for their anti-Labor allies….past-G voters, disenchanted with anti-Labor campaigning shifting to Labor…makes sense….Labor look like winning at this juncture.

  15. Are postal votes included in projection ? I believe ALP ran a postal vote campaign. Might save the day similar to Melbourne by election in 2012.

  16. I have a feeling these numbers are going to be very important! Stolen from Stephen Murray via twitter:

    1. 2016 election 5118 (41.8%) online direct to the AEC; 5103 (41.6%) through the ALP; 1793 (14.6%) registered postal voters; 165 (1.3%) on paper forms to the AEC 70 (0.6%) through other parties/other
    There were 14,631 applications for postal votes – with 8149 (55.7%) of these coming through the ALP; 3927 (26.8%) made to the AEC online; 2141 (14.6%) to general (“permanently” registered) postal voters 396 (2.7%) paper applications to the AEC 18 (0.12%) made otherwise

    Total pre-poll votes taken in Batman: 16,621 (14.9% of enrolled electors) At the 2016, Federal election: 20,836 (19.1% of enrolled voters) Final day pre-poll: 3,752 – 3.4% of enrolment (2018) v 3,795 – 3.5% (2016)

  17. WB
    7.45pm. Yet another change of lead on my projection, but I’ve got the lead at 0.9% compared to the ABC’s 1.5%. ABC still staying Labor retain, I’m still saying too early to call.

    What a showman 🙂

  18. I would like to think that this demonstrates that sloganeering (“Stop Adani!”) doesn’t work as well as treating voters as if they’re vaguely intelligent. Particularly in an educated electorate.

  19. Here comes the ugly gloating. Shame for the country if Labor gets back into Batman but life will go on splendidly regardless.

  20. Zeh says:
    Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 7:56 pm
    Black Wiggle on life support

    Idiotic anti-Labor premised tactics to be binned.

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