The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers will be with us later. Also featured are Essential’s monthly (I think) leadership ratings, and they find Malcolm Turnbull little changed at 41% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (on one), but Bill Shorten improving to 37% approval (up four) and 44% disapproval (down two). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-26, compared with 42-25 last time.
Other questions relate to Adani, on which 30% favour the Greens’ position, 26% favour the Coalition’s and 19% favour Labor’s, though it would be important to see the question wording on that one. Other findings related by The Guardian are that 42% support and 39% oppose company tax cuts; that regulating energy prices had 83% support, an “Accord-style partnership” 66% support and boosting Newstart 52% support; and that same-sex marriage is supported by 65% and opposed by 26%. Essential Research’s full report should be with us later in the day.
UPDATE: Full report here. Primary vote gains for the major parties at the expense of other/independent, with the Coalition up one to 36% and Labor up three to 38%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.
bemused
Ah yes the BLF ( Billionaire Liberation Front) . For the Minister of Bling it was love at first sight.
equal or not
it is for self manage super funds, so if you have your super in a super fund managed by someone else like QSuper, I would say it does not effect you. But I am happy to be corrected.
A couple of decades ago when I was first talking to a financial guy he gave me a very good piece of advice: Your superannuation is to fund your retirement, not make your children rich. Leave them a house, that should be enough.
And he told me the tale of two clients. One was a guy who retired at 65 with only about $100,000 in super, probably a good result given that Keating’s scheme was still young. He was able to set the gut up with the age pension for him and his wife and invest the rest to provide a top up for holidays and stuff small luxuries. The client was as happy as.
Another client came to him with $1 million. He was a pain in the arse. Every time the market went down for a bit he would be on the phone wanting to know what he could do to stop the losses. or if he saw an investment he thought was doing better he wanted to switch his funds there. Basically the guy wanted to die with his million intact.
There are no banks in heaven.
Some PBer’s “Kill Bill strategy.
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/973487499422048256
The winner of the debate around the policy announcement today will come down to the lived experience of Australian voters.
” What the f**k are franked dividends “, ” how long has this been going on ” and ” I am working three jobs to make ends meet and people are getting cash back from the government for doing nothing ! ”
Works well with the ACTU media campaign I would think.
Cheers.
poroti
Nothing like money meeting money. it has that special spark.
Greensborough Growler
I’d go for “Prickly Pear” of policy and Labor wants to introduce the Cactoblastis moth. Currently feck all working major league against the $@#$#@!! toads
sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, March 13, 2018 at 6:23 pm
Gee this Kold Konnection, makes his/her/it’s first appearance on this blog today and spams the crap out with Liberal talking points defending the dividend imputation rort.
Nonsense.
KK is simply saying that a reasonable return for stocks in the share market is 6%.
That’s it.
The ASX goes down if a sparrow farts out the wrong side of its cloaca.
One afternoon’s blip – and the cause only guessed at – and you’d think the world had been knocked off its axis.
Sheesh…
The dividend imputation system meant to ensure that tax was paid once, not twice. What the Costello change did was ensure that, for some people, tax wasn’t paid at any level!”@1petermartin on Labor’s new tax proposal #auspol #TheDrum
Bushfire
A couple of weeks ago the market went down 1 per cent or more a couple of days in a row and it was wall-to-wall doom and gloom headlines, billions lost etc.
It has quietly crept back up, a few points here, a few more there. As it does. Was up yesterday, went down today, may go up tomorrow.
Bad news sells.
“” What the f**k are franked dividends “, ” how long has this been going on ” and ” I am working three jobs to make ends meet and people are getting cash back from the government for doing nothing ! ”
We could do something similar for negative gearing.
Bad news sells.
So if you have no real bad news just make shit up.
“A couple of weeks ago the market went down 1 per cent or more a couple of days in a row and it was wall-to-wall doom and gloom headlines, billions lost etc.”
The billions never existed and still don’t. Fake money. Or maybe ‘virtual money’. It doesn’t really exist until you sell your shares.
The rise of self managed Superannuation Funds is of concern including because the number among us capable of assessing risk and reward when investing money in any particular Company are few and far between – including among staff employed by our banks who lend to those Companies
Further, the changes which have allowed Superannuation Funds to borrow are of concern – and that borrowing is exclusively by self managed Superannuation Funds – including investing in geared residential property which is one of the drivers of the increase in house prices noting the performance of the ASX post the rivers of gold 2004->2007 inclusive period where the market recorded successive 20% plus returns, to 6,800 Points which has not been reached since, still struggling to 6,000 Points (compared to offshore markets including NZ!)
Fund Managers such as Zurich, Black Rock, Schroder et al do not borrow
They also assess the Financial Statements of the Public Companies they invest contributors money into – and have the profile to have a presence with Directors
They also have a raft of investment options – and diversity is the safety valve
The very great majority of self funded retirees (of which my wife and I are 2, for now having both retired from the work force upon turning 50 and doing the sums) would have their Superannuation administers by Fund Managers, including Industry Funds
I would guess the minority self manage
And then we have another minority investing and structuring to receive a cash payment from the ATO courtesy of their (outside Allocated Pension which is not taxed per se) income being below the tax threshold
If they are concerned perhaps they could fix their concerns by making an undeducted contribution to Superannuation with a reputable and international Fund Manager – given they have room under the $1.6 Million cap that applies to both partners in a couple, so $3.2 Million in aggregate
Problem solved
As a former senior banker I would not entertain employing an Australian Bank owned Fund Manager
Hence the Fund Managers I have referred to earlier
And the Banking Royal Commission has had a submission from me!!!
But more of that later
Like ANZ Lending Managers receiving gifts from McCaughan Dyson to write Fixed Interest Loans with no explanation or knowledge of risk
Just for starters!!!
GG:
My famous mother is a pensioner and frequently tells me she’s got more money now than she has ever had in her whole life.
That’s been my experience.
The mortgage is paid, the house is in good condition, we have far more than enough money for good food and clothing and holidays and trips, I’ve amassed all the lawnmowers and concrete mixers and computers and tools and sheds and bibs and bobs I need, we have two old but very serviceable and economical cars which are not used much, the children are all now living away from home and independent, we have enough to live on from our smsf, life is good.
The share market will go up again in the next few days but people will still be working three jobs to make ends meet and families will be cutting down even more as they face higher expenses with no wage rise in sight.
” What the f**k are franked dividends ! ”
Cheers.
Dividend imputation made the choice to tax dividends once at the marginal tax rate of the person receiving the dividends.
Either you believe that this is inherently wrong – in which case we should scrap dividend imputation altogether – or you should be ok with the fact that very low income earners, such as myself, pay no income tax, and as a result the tax paid on dividends I receive is refunded to me.
The system is currently consistent and fair. If you want to scrap refunds – and only refunds, leaving the rest of the dividend imputation system in place – then you are unfairly disadvantaging just low income shareholders (yes, such as myself).
Dividends after Frank Calabrese has dealt with them .
don @ #517 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 8:38 pm
Don’t forget all the utility discounts and the subsidised food at Pokie Venue Pubs.
ratsak says:
Tuesday, March 13, 2018 at 7:02 pm
Snakes have it.
https://goo.gl/images/Nu3W2f
Some don’t
___________________
There is a vast amount of DNA in that amazing poo.
You have more cells (and more DNA) in the contents of your intestines than in the rest of your body.
As a counterpoint to probably most people here, I am very much in the accumulation stage but have very little super. Also probably unlikely to ever get the largess that was thrown around for wealthy superannuates recently and I am fine with it. Super shouldnt be a tax dodge or vehicle to avoid paying any.
poroti,
I am sure Frank would do a great job.
A labor man of passion.
Cheers.
Apparently the Fairfax papers have a big spread tomorrow on how Treasury had recommended to ScoMo the abolition of these very same cash refunds of dividend franking. And he was attracted to it.
Canavan is a clear and present danger to Australian society.
david rowe (@roweafr) Tweeted:
RT @FinancialReview: ‘Your money or your imputation credits’. @roweafr’s latest cartoon. For more: https://t.co/HKMCmyVkKm #auspol #Labor h… https://twitter.com/FinancialReview/status/973449831728345088?s=17
David Rowe sorry late
Have been busy Australia Post reckoned they delivered a parcel yesterday, supposed to have a signature receiving,it. Didn’t come. Anyway one good thing living in a small town, was delivered to a house streets away today ,their address nothing like mine which was clearly labelled, they know me and brought it down when they came home. Didn’t sign of course. Australia Post now reckons the tracking reference wrong and must have been another company, so sent them their email saying had been delivered with tracking reference on it no reply. Looked up my account had on it. Problem resolved. Just received an email asking how did we do.
Will answer tomorrow when I cool down!
doyley
He’d be a good man to run the credits through alright. A very suitable amount would come out of the process 🙂
Bolt just announced on 3aw that there has been very little global warming over the last twenty years. He then went on to say that a little global warming might be a good thing anyway.
He concluded his sermon with his favourite argument that even if global warming was real, any contribution Australia might make to reducing emissions would be so small as to make no difference at all. So why bother.
With logic like that what could possibly go wrong?
Dividend imputation should be scrapped. Company tax is the price paid for the costs incorporation with its ability to hold, reinvest and pay income in later tax years. Personal income tax is the price paid for a personal income. “Double taxation” is just a campaign slogan to reduce tax.
poroti @ #520 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 8:41 pm
I miss Frank!
Sometimes, not often, one of my tweets goes viral. This indicates that the topic has hit a nerve out in the big collective consciousness.
This time, a reply to my tweet (which was itself a reply to Barnaby Joyce suggesting we should move to the country to alleviate population pressure in Sydney) has gone viral with many retweets, comments, likes. It was:
Cheap rent in Armidale if you know the right people #qanda #BarnabyJoyce
This tells me that the Barnyard born to rule, snout in the trough, fark you attitude has struck said nerve in the community.
Choices have to be made.
Do you take the energy supplement away from pensioners ?
Do you kick people off disability support ?
Do you rip money out of health ?
Do you continue to freeze the GP Medicare rebate ?
Do you continue to freeze rebates for necessary and life saving pathology testing ?
Do you rip money out of education ?
Or, do you close a concession that is no longer fit for purpose and will free up money for all of the above and more ?
” What the fuck are franking dividends ! ”
Cheers.
sprocket,
What a coincidence !
Cheers.
Sprocket
As I’ve said all along, its the rorting not the rooting that pissed people off with Joyce. That and the rank hyprocrisy.
Puff, The Magic Dragon says:
Tuesday, March 13, 2018 at 8:20 pm
equal or not
it is for self manage super funds, so if you have your super in a super fund managed by someone else like QSuper, I would say it does not effect you. But I am happy to be corrected.
___________
Puff, if you are talking about the dividend imputation thingy, I don’t think it makes any difference if you are in a smsf or Qsuper or any other super fund.
The ATO pays you back the dividend imputation when you lodge your tax return. They know exactly what you got and from which shares. They don’t care how your super is organised, as far as I can tell.
And while I am on the subject, submitting your tax form is now very much less hassle since they know all your income from things like bank accounts and shares. One more advantage of the internet.
Mari @ #527 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 8:47 pm
Answer it now… don’t wait till all your passion has gone. 😀
PS,
And who would be leaking that information to the media ?
Cheers.
Wow!
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/972949905017683968
So Jackol
You pay no tax, get a dividend and have the tax paid on that dividend refunded to you?
But you say you have paid no tax – you just get a refund
If you have a rental property, geared so you have a tax deductible expense to offset the rent received but your Net Income is under the tax paying threshold should you receive a credit on any excess of expenses over income starting from the level of expense that puts you below the tax paying threshold?
And given I paid an upper marginal tax rate of 60 cents in the $1- with no franking credits, can I now have a refund from government given the largesse of ny contribution to the Nation, noting you pay no tax?
Some things are just not fair, are they?
I am undecided on the merits of the proposed change to the treatment of franking credits, but the electoral result is entirely predictable. Forget any potential ALP gains in Qld, and say goodbye to Longman, goodbye to Herbert, and goodbye to Griffith. That is four wins forfeited and three seats lost.
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, March 13, 2018 at 8:33 pm
“A couple of weeks ago the market went down 1 per cent or more a couple of days in a row and it was wall-to-wall doom and gloom headlines, billions lost etc.”
The billions never existed and still don’t. Fake money. Or maybe ‘virtual money’. It doesn’t really exist until you sell your shares.
_____________________
Not so.
If the market goes up, and your shares get the same percentage dividend, you get extra in your dividend ‘cheque’.
Player One says:
Tuesday, March 13, 2018 at 6:57 pm
Boerwar @ #318 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 4:50 pm
‘If you are not proposing the world follow the lead of the Dutch, then good. Because the world cannot. It is an unsustainable and dangerous agricultural model, as the Dutch themselves are realizing – and trying (not very successfully) to rectify.’
As noted previously, I was not proposing anything. (Goal post shift, repeated). What I was doing was describing what is happening. I suspect you really don’t understand modern farming at all. ‘Follow the Dutch’ is the give away. Zero and low biodiversity ag is the norm for the capital intensive systems that essentially feed the world now. It is not new. It has been evolving for decades. It is why we do not have a global famine right now.
‘You want to feed more people, which inevitably means less sustainable and resilient agriculture.’ (Goal post shift).
Strange as it may seem, I don’t like it when people starve. (I can recall the satisfaction I used to feel after a day’s picking spuds. We would load the semis, by hand in those days. I would be thinking there goes a good load of food for people to eat. So, IMO, if we can feed people now, we should do so. If you have either a practical agricultural alternatives or a system for queueing people to starve, please enlighten us.
It must baffle your exports that global food production is highest precisely where biodiv is lowest and food production is lowest exactly where there is most biodiversity. It must baffle them that capital intensive low biodiversity farming is highly resilient to external shocks and that famine inevitably occurs in high biodiversity systems which clearly lack resilience. It must baffle your experts that despite huge losses of biodiversity, low biodiv farming systems have never been more productive. It must baffle your experts that low biodiv farming technologies are so massively productive at all. That should not be happening, right? Demonstrably, the key to the massive productivity of modern agriculture is a demonstration of the value of keeping biodiversity out. Quite clearly there is a massive disjunct between biodiversity theoretics and what is actually happening in modern ag.
So, what do your experts do? They ignore the fact that their theories simply do not apply. They ignore the evidence. And then they predict that all this MUST change. One day. On principle. According to their theories. It is risky, they say.
Further, the experts’ diminishing agricultural resilience arguments persistently ignore the capacity of people to develop technologies and for agricultural systems to adapt rapidly. ALL current trends in agricultural systems demonstrate increasing resilience based both on technical developments and system agility. The systems are adapting at warp speed. The suite of ag technologies are advancing at warp speed. Yet your experts keep wailing about projected problems and risks.
‘No, I keep pointing out what the experts in the field say – ‘ Yep. And what the experts do is ignore the current evidence on actual food production and project scenarios based on false assumptions.
Some clarity on closed systems: the ONLY biodiversity inputs required at Sunrise Farm are the plant genes. All the other inputs into the system are inorganic. This is standard practice for greenhouse agriculture and explains their massive productivity.
Open air systems can not be totally physically enclosed but in practice achieve remarkably low levels of biodiversity inputs. This starts with biocide fumigants and includes various chemical buffers to prevent and reduce attempts by biodiversity at ingress. The key inputs in these systems are inorganic.
‘ 4. The resilience to low/zero biodiversity farming systems like the Whyalla Sunrise tomato farm are indifferent to biodiversity principles. They do not need biodiversity. Whether biodiversity is resilient to them is an issue but it is not an issue to their productivity.
You clearly don’t read the links I provided, which point out that you can have high productivity or high resilience. But you cannot have both.’
The experts simply ignore the repeated demonstrations that the less biodiversity the better for agricultural productivity, and the repeated demonstrations that ag systems are highly resilient and become more resilient.
‘My point is even simpler than you seem to think. Your proposal for zero biodiversity agriculture is risky and (ultimately) unsustainable. Therefore, we have to look at alternatives.’
Oh, I have no problem with ‘looking at alternatives’. Looking at alternatives is a constant for all modern ag systems. Let me know when you find one.
You continue to focus on the impact of agriculture on ecology. This is a deflection (goal post shift). My starting point was quite different: that modern agriculture is productive precisely where it excludes biodiversity.
As for whether you address my arguments, of course you don’t address my arguments. You just post dozens of links from ‘experts’. Take the significant point I made about modern agriculture in the MDB. Silence – presumably because it does not fit your theories.
Fargo, I agree. Labor will be lucky to win any seats after this dividend imputation policy.
sprocket_ @ #544 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 9:04 pm
I’m happy to take any bet of any quantity on that prognostication!
Was interesting watching the Drum. I reckon the Govt is on a hiding to nothing over these tax credit changes.
Reference was made ( i think by Peter Martin) to Treasury having looked at this?? 🙂
ScoMo will get all shouty, demonstrate his economic illiteracy..and the polls wont shift.
The message most will hear (as i think doyley mentioned upthread) is about people paying not tax getting $ from the ATO. That it….they wont care about nuance.
One of the panel on the Drum referred to “trickle down” vs “bubble up” economics. Now that could have legs. People remember the cheques sent out in response to the GFC. That was putting money in the hands of those who would spend it locally and stimulate the on the ground, real world as experienced economy.
I think the ALP is shaping up to re-frame the tax cuts argument. Company tax cuts are trickle down, personal tax cuts (and maybe combined with services / allowances changes to bias the package to mid / lower earners advantage) would be “bubble up”. I know which i would rather try selling come election time.
Observer –
Indeed.
As do all other shareholders that receive franked dividends. That ‘refund’ reduces their tax payable, of course, rather than being a refund, but still they have earned that extra money in their pocket (via lower taxes in their case rather than a refund in my case) as much and as little as me.
I would be ok if the ALP were proposing to scrap Dividend Imputation entirely – everyone in the same boat.
But they’re not. People earning a lot more money than I (and, yes, paying tax) will still get the full benefit of Dividend Imputation, but I will get zero benefit from it under the ALP proposal because I’m not earning enough.
It will necessarily effect what I have to do to manage my very limited store of capital that I live incredibly frugally off of.
But go ahead, make blithe assumptions about my circumstances and make snarky comments about how much I may or may not deserve the system to be consistent and fair.
Fargo61 and sprocket_
Pull the other one!
GG:
Don’t forget all the utility discounts and the subsidised food at Pokie Venue Pubs.
________________
Indeed. Seniors do well out of discounts, and especially if you have a pension of however small dimensions.
We don’t use the Bowlo or RSL or pub meals much, but they are very good value when we do go, maybe once a month or so, because of the subsidisation by Pokies.
I’d rather have the food that I cook, to be frank. Pub and Bowlo meals are of just far too generous portions, though beautifully cooked and presented. And somebody else does the washing up, always a factor to be considered.
One thing that Bolt came out with which I found rather pleasing was that he thinks Labor’s “tax grab”, as he prefers to call it, is very astute politics by Shorten. He thinks that the $56 billion war chest Labor will be able to take to the next election, especially the personal tax cuts that it will allow, will be very telling in getting Labor elected.
For a man who is so blind when it comes to global warming, he has a pretty good track record when it comes to predicting the outcome of elections. And I think he is spot on regarding this one.