Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor continues to dominate on voting intention, though few seem impressed by its stance on Adani.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers will be with us later. Also featured are Essential’s monthly (I think) leadership ratings, and they find Malcolm Turnbull little changed at 41% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (on one), but Bill Shorten improving to 37% approval (up four) and 44% disapproval (down two). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-26, compared with 42-25 last time.

Other questions relate to Adani, on which 30% favour the Greens’ position, 26% favour the Coalition’s and 19% favour Labor’s, though it would be important to see the question wording on that one. Other findings related by The Guardian are that 42% support and 39% oppose company tax cuts; that regulating energy prices had 83% support, an “Accord-style partnership” 66% support and boosting Newstart 52% support; and that same-sex marriage is supported by 65% and opposed by 26%. Essential Research’s full report should be with us later in the day.

UPDATE: Full report here. Primary vote gains for the major parties at the expense of other/independent, with the Coalition up one to 36% and Labor up three to 38%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,546 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  4. ‘Self funded retirees in Labor’s sights’ – 7.30 steps up, complete with battling self funded retiree who won’t be able to go out to dinner any more if Labor has its way.

  5. mikehilliard @ #448 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 7:31 pm

    Probably ruffle a few feathers here but you have to wonder why so many tax lurks are aimed at the older years. That’s until you look at their power as a voting block I guess. It’s a wonder the shit really hasn’t hit the fan in this country given the rough deal younger people get.

    Yeah, but there is more longevity for supporting aspirationals now because they will be around a little longer than the boomers.

  6. kezza2 @ #359 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 2:33 pm

    Isn’t it amazing the amount of working class men who took advantage of Keating’s so-called tax cut, and who are now squealing the most about how it will affect them.

    You guys couldn’t have given a stuff about the women, the sole parents, you had deliberately left behind, to raise your families on bullshit.

    I’m not going to forget the income I forewent to raise the children, ostensibly on my own – try bargaining school fees with an absent parent, while Freddy went on his merry way.

    So, what’s it like now, to have nothing in the nest egg? To be able to give nothing to the next generation? Join the club.

    Superannuation was never intended as an inter generational wealth transfer device.

  10. Australia’s very own NRA is off with the fairies:

    One of Australia’s top retail industry groups wants the country’s lowest-paid workers to be denied any pay rise this year.

    In an extraordinary submission to the workplace umpire, the National Retail Association – one of the nation’s major retail industry organisations – has called for a 0 per cent increase to the minimum wage on July 1.

    While most industry groups have recommended an increase at or near the current inflation rate of 1.9 per cent – which would translate into a modest $13-a-week increase – the Retail Association has called on the Fair Work Commission to give “full and genuine consideration” to withholding an increase altogether.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/retailers-demand-zero-pay-rise-for-australia-s-lowest-paid-workers-20180313-p4z45g.html

  14. Former Lord Mayor Robert Doyle has responded to the adverse findings against him through his wife. Council found her sexually harassed two councillors. The statement from his wife is here: pic.twitter.com/YQbVEdye9L— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) March 13, 2018

    :large

    Extraordinary statement. No opportunity to respond? Wasn't a PR company hired? Didn't he have the report for weeks before it was made public and asked to respond? And what about the mental health of those who raised this? Who were not privy to the report?This is awful. https://t.co/uoxekVWhUa— Allison Keogh (@allisonkeogh) March 13, 2018

  15. So Treasury has been working on the franking credit cash refund eh?

    Just like they were working on CGT and Negative Gearing before Labor jumped in.

    Hey ScoMo, someone in Treasury is telling your replacement everything that they are working up for you. Then he and Bill gazump you and leave you scrambling to destroy a policy position you were just weeks from adopting. Get the AFP onto it old son. You can get the cameras there before the raid if you want. Michaelia knows a guy…

  21. “On the Costello and Murdoch Channel 9 News this evening, in their 5 second Finance Report, they have said the ASX has gone down today because of Shorten’s tax on the rich!!!”

    The AX200 and All Ords both decreased by 24 points today, a decline of 0.4%. That is about the same percentage as the latest decline in Dow Jones (Wall Street) which would not be influenced by Labor policy. The fall on US markets is likely the major factor in the local fall. Australian markets follow overseas trends. Attributing the fall in the ASX to Labor’s policy without some justification is a straight out lie.

    In any case, 0.4% is well within the usual day to day fluctuation as greed and fear dominate in turn.

  25. “What’s wrong with self funded retirees?”

    Nothing at all. I’m one. I worked hard, I’ve done well, I don’t need special concessions or subsidies. There are lots doing it tough that do.

  28. davidwh says:

    What’s wrong with self funded retirees?

    Absolutely nothing……………………as long as they don’t make out to be in the “on the bones of their arse” demographic and as long as they acknowledge the generous tax breaks they have been fortunate enough to take advantage of. Tax breaks wot the rest of have paid for 🙂

  30. Labor probably would have won the last election if its budget repair measures were clearly better than those of the Libs. They are not going to let that happen again. That is the top priority. If they can stop the libs running that scare campaign, they will romp home. So this is a very smart move.

  32. Paul Biorginio:

    Oh dear @abc730 at it again…go for a bleating gamer of the system and don’t present the bigger picture, let alone budget repair. Remember debt and deficit disaster.

  33. You’re a self-funded retiree if you’ve enough capital to generate the income to sustain your lifestyle. If you’re relying on the refunds then you’re not self-funding and you’ve almost certainly got capital to sell and still have more than enough left over to pass on.
    Sales’ questions just showed how useless she is on policy: asking Bowen how much self-funded retirees on average “earn”, as though they’re on wages!

  34. The self funded retiree battler reported on 7.30 could get a free meal if he went to one of these restaurants:

    The last couple of years has seen the rise of restaurants, museums and other businesses allowing customers to pay as they want. There may be altruistic reasons for companies to adopt this pricing, but research shows that “pay what you want” pricing can sometimes lead to an increase in revenue.

    Adopting pay what you want does increase the risk for businesses, as customers can easily pay nothing, or less than the seller’s costs. However, the fact that most customers still pay significantly more than zero, and that revenue can actually increase, shows people make purchase decisions for many reasons, including a perception of fairness.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-12/pay-what-you-want-businesses-higher-revenue/9538350

  36. Me too Steve.

    And I acknowledge it was generous tax concessions that helped me build up my superannuation to the point that I could retire earlier than i might otherwise have managed.

    If I miss out on some franking credits to help Labor make Australia a better place fair enough.


  37. Holden Hillbilly (AnonBlock)
    Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 8:35 am
    Comment #38

    The imputation proposal will smash 100,000 small and medium retiree investors and those who own smsf’s with balances under $500,000.

    The ALP have just lost those 100,000 votes and could drag the coalition into a winning position.

    Killing Bill is now killing the retirees.

    To almost a man the opposing retirees probably don’t believe in government and vote Liberal anyway. Only in Australia are company profits not taxed at all; which is the net result of the the company tax being paid back. Sort of makes a mockery of the current government trying to further destroy the revenue base with company tax reductions doesn’t it. The god fairing Liberal voters would have got smaller checks.

  38. rossmcg

    If I miss out on some franking credits to help Labor make Australia a better place fair enough.

    That’s the spirit , thinking of it in terms of…

  40. I am confused.

    I have my super in QSuper … so i am self-funded? or does the policy only effect self-managed funds? I am just on the boundary to getting back a part pension.

    I had a small part pension that came with Health Care Card, discount on rates and free street parking (no meters).

    The Libs and Greens got rid of my small part pension but the loss of ancillary matters were the most costly.

    Then the Gov gave back the Health Card.

    I don’t mind losing money if the bloody politicians would spend it more effectively.

    I really hate the way Australia gives away its resources for next to nothing. Both LNP and Labor are guilty of this.

  41. Good evening all,

    Labor just has to stick to its guns, as they will.

    Nothing worthwhile is easily gained.

    Labor has announced $59 billion in savings measures. The next step will be spending announcements.

    Cheets

  43. By accident i (partly) watched 7:30 for the first time in years.

    What an extraordinary tabloid dumb programme!!

    Sales thought that every household should only receive government benefits if it paid an equal amount of tax …..???

    Wow! this Murdoch Managing Director is really stuffing the joint which i assume is the normal Liberal MO.

  46. Living in Queensland I am yet to watch 7.30.

    But I think in general the harder the interview, the harder the questions, the more opportunity for Bowen and, in general labor, to show some kahunas and backbone.

    Cheers.

  50. Antonbruckner

    “- if I recall, Labor tried to bring in a mining tax and got run out of town.”
    ——-

    OK yes. a sad loss ..

    But i was thinking of that recent report on our gas donations (hardly can be called “exports”).

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