The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers will be with us later. Also featured are Essential’s monthly (I think) leadership ratings, and they find Malcolm Turnbull little changed at 41% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (on one), but Bill Shorten improving to 37% approval (up four) and 44% disapproval (down two). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-26, compared with 42-25 last time.
Other questions relate to Adani, on which 30% favour the Greens’ position, 26% favour the Coalition’s and 19% favour Labor’s, though it would be important to see the question wording on that one. Other findings related by The Guardian are that 42% support and 39% oppose company tax cuts; that regulating energy prices had 83% support, an “Accord-style partnership” 66% support and boosting Newstart 52% support; and that same-sex marriage is supported by 65% and opposed by 26%. Essential Research’s full report should be with us later in the day.
UPDATE: Full report here. Primary vote gains for the major parties at the expense of other/independent, with the Coalition up one to 36% and Labor up three to 38%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.
5 up to 8 Billion saved a year and thats all from poor pensioners.. sorry but that doesn’t fly
TPOF
Ah. Thank you.
Kold Konnection @ #338 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 5:08 pm
Well that’s not right. You would also not have any other taxable income.
There are many people who earn less than $18,000 a year from grossed up share dividends who will not be affected in the slightest by this proposal because their normal wage and salary earnings will take their marginal rates up to 34.5% (including Medicare levy) or higher.
And Shorten is not proposing to ‘give’ those people anything. He will simply leave in place the original franking credit arrangements introduced by Paul Keating.
lizzie @ 9
Good photo of Bill. Looking quite trim and relaxed.
Leroy @ #183 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 11:29 am
Labor picking up primaries at three times the rate of the Cons.
That will end well. 🙂
Boerwar @ #347 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 3:45 pm
Utterly disgraceful scam, that needs to be completely outlawed.
And excuse me if I am a little cynical at just how quickly very occasional commentator Kold Konnection is out of the gate on this argument, complete with ready numbers, and how conveniently it all seems to quickly lead back to accusations of Bill really just being a duplicitous friend of the rich and an enemy of the poor.
TPOF
Thanks for clarifying.
Big Balls Bill does it agin!
davidwh @ #336 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 5:04 pm
You mean average, don’t you. The marginal rate of 32.5c (i.e., the tax payable on the last dollar earned) does kick in at $37k. The marginal tax rate is highly relevant here because for most share investors (outside trust and super funds) dividend income is on top of personal earnings.
So much room for disinformation as we have seen here today.
Labor will need to be on top of its game!
Kold Konnection @ #280 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 4:20 pm
What a load of codswallop. Currently, the highest yielding stocks are the major banks. And these are some of the lowest risk stocks around, especially given that the Government underwrites their stability.
Isn’t it amazing the amount of working class men who took advantage of Keating’s so-called tax cut, and who are now squealing the most about how it will affect them.
You guys couldn’t have given a stuff about the women, the sole parents, you had deliberately left behind, to raise your families on bullshit.
I’m not going to forget the income I forewent to raise the children, ostensibly on my own – try bargaining school fees with an absent parent, while Freddy went on his merry way.
So, what’s it like now, to have nothing in the nest egg? To be able to give nothing to the next generation? Join the club.
There’s an equity problem that lies at the heart of all tax systems: eventually someone has got to pay something…
The full dividend imputation system adopted in 1987 by Australia allowed a full credit for underlying company tax paid to offset against the shareholder’s personal tax liabilities on dividend income. It is this system that Labor proposes we now return to. Note that, even now, very few other countries are so generous when it comes to taxation of dividend income, with most retaining the classical system under which shareholders pay tax on dividend income, with no credit for underlying company tax being available.
The changes introduced by Howard/Costello in 2001 extended the Australian imputation benefit: in effect, so that the underlying company tax was treated as a personal tax credit of the shareholder deriving the dividend income, much like PAYG withheld from salaries. This meant that where the “credit” exceeded the shareholder’s tax liability on the dividend, the shareholder became entitled to a cash refund of the excess credit. It is this refund entitlement that Labor now proposes to eliminate.
The affordability of the 1987 imputation reforms was dependent on there being a fairly substantial degree of wastage of imputation credits (including the excess credits for Australian resident shareholders that became refundable under the 2001 changes – but also, for example, excess imputation credits on dividends paid to non-resident shareholders, which have never been refundable). That affordability was reduced by the 2001 changes.
We see yet again the sense of entitlement of those who are outraged by the removal of a concession which should never have been extended in the first place. I guess the next round of outrage will be from all the tax-exempt organisation that will also (presumably) lose their refund entitlements for franking credits on their dividend income.
All of which kind of misses the point: company tax is a tax on company profits, which we know most people see as a good thing, yet the net revenue raised by company tax is limited to the excess of imputation credits which get “wasted” at the shareholder level, one way or the other. If all the imputation credits get used with 100% “efficiency”, company tax generates no net revenue.
If Bowen and Shorten can sell this proposal, they will win the next election. It’s good policy, but the political stakes are high.
Sorry yes average tax rate.
Outsider @ #360 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 4:35 pm
I propose we find the people who have the most of the stuff that people use to pay other people with, and then make them pay for things. They have the greatest ability to pay, after all.
From the AFR:
Under the changes introduced by the Howard government in 2000, if a shareholder, be it an individual or a superannuation fund, had an imputation credit higher than the tax they paid, then they would receive the excess as a cash refund from the Australian Tax Office
“Everyone will still be able to use imputation credits to reduce their tax, but not to claim cash refunds.
Which means that a person must first earn more the tax-free threshold in order to receive the welfare benefit.
ar
We have been most fortunate (yep, we also worked bloody hard and were very frugal over the last 45 years) and I support your principle 100%.
Society without social justice is crap.
Not complicated.
If this is some fundamental principle, then why don’t we do away with dividend imputation altogether?
The point of dividend imputation is to convert dividends into being treated as income for the individual that receives the dividends, and taxed as their personal income. If this is not appropriate, then let’s abolish the system.
However, if you’re going to retain dividend imputation, then just removing the refund from low income earners is just unfair. Sorry. If I earn enough to be taxed I can make use of dividend imputation. If I don’t earn enough to be taxed I am shut out of dividend imputation. I don’t see that as fair, sorry.
In further Great news, the Greens are Going to Give everyone an electric car by 202o!
I see Keating is reported as backing the Shorten changes which he describes as being a return to the scheme he designed.
I find the Tory concern for superannuants mildly amusing.
I have heard Keating say in interviews that Howard and Costello and their predecessors opposed every piece of legislation associated with setting up worker superannuation as we now know it.
The sky falling in was the least worst thing they predicted.
Then when they came to office they found out how popular it was and set about changing it to the great benefit of their wealthy supporters.
No doubt a minority view in here – an own goal today from Shorten and Bowen, an enormous free kick for Turnball and Morrison.
I suspect the policy was announced today to help Labor in Batman – maybe they think going after self-funded retirees will counter the Greens with their “Stop Adani” rhetoric.
This class warfare stuff, it never plays well for Labor.
Borrowing from the Sanders and Corbyn playbook – counterproductive. For all the adulation of Sanders and Corbyn you get on Q&A, note that those two haven’t yet won an election.
Then again, what I wrote above will be lost on the Shorten fanclub, the regulars who think he can do no wrong
And, not all self-funded retirees are millionaires living in Point Piper, I think the Labor brains trust sometimes are blind to that reality
The fall of Roman!
Evan you may be correct in your contrary view, having announced it, at a time of their choosing Labor must now defend it and prosecute the case.
I don’t think a policy like this would be related to Batman.
Having announced CGT and NG changes and the OTT government response will help.
No, not all self funded retirees are millionaires living in Point Piper. I know
Realistic comment came from a spokesman for a company which looks after my business and he estimated that it might make 0.5 percentage points difference to earnings and growth in a typical retiree’s fund.
And given growth and returns in the last few years has been up and down by many percentage points more than that I can’t see what the fuss is about.
I often read retirees seeking advice in newspaper columns about how to manage their million dollar plus portfolios so they can pay no tax or keep their concession cards and the like
The richest will be the ones who bleat the loudest, most of the rest of us just get on with enjoying our lives and not worrying about dying a zillionaire.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/electric-vehicles-sa-labor-proposes-no-stamp-duty-free-rego-zero-emissions-cars-94207/
From reading today the credit changes when announced by Costello in the 2000s were estimated to cost $500m, consisting I guess of low income pensioners.
However now they are costing 10x that, which suggests it is being used as a tax minimization device.
Boerwar @ #366 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 5:44 pm
I found the Greens video release on the topic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE1lzqJCeJ0
For some reason, people here seem to think if you are on the pension you are well-off. It is less than the minimum wage. Pensioners use investments to increase their income, most of the time very modestly.
As I said earlier, a $50,000 investment in shares at present will return an annual income at present of about $4300 extra per year. Under Labors plan it will reduce to $3000 per year. Those that earn more that $18,000 per year from their share investments will continue to receive tax credits. Those that earn $1-$18000 will have their credit abolished.
By 2030 it is all but inevitable a Green will hold the seat of Lingiari, so compelling is the electoral success of the Greens.
So does this future member intend to visit the communities of the NT in his electric Landruiser, or equivalent?
No doubt he/she will be accessing charging stations at Ali Curung, Haasts Bluff and Epenarra along the way.
Even more to all of this –
Read more: http://www.afr.com/markets/labors-imputation-plan-sparks-bank-hybrid-questions-20180313-h0xf33#ixzz59bs7ORQ7
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The Drum has discussion on the Shorten proposals.
Here we go
One of Australia’s top retail industry groups wants the country’s lowest-paid workers to be denied any pay rise this year.
In an extraordinary submission to the workplace umpire, the National Retail Association – one of the nation’s major retail industry organisations – has called for a 0 per cent increase to the minimum wage on July 1.
That, together with the penalty rate cuts should get retail sales ticking over again.
Kold Konnection
Do they lose the $50,000 ? No. Can they invest elsewhere ? Yes. Was it money that should never have been given in the first place ? Yes.
I would imagine that anyone with self-managed super will work out a more beneficial investment strategy.
Evan @ #373 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 5:46 pm
In fact, this is a high risk strategy, because it leaves Labor open to total gross misrepresentation of the impact of these changes. However, it also unlocks a huge pool of revenue that can be used in far more socially constructive and broadly beneficial ways – including tax cuts to lower income earners.
So you think dividend imputation – having company income paid as dividends taxed once based on personal income tax rates – is wrong?
Refunds are a consistent, logical operation of the tax system when dividend imputation combines with a tax free threshold.
What is your basis for saying that this refund ‘should never have been given in the first place’?
My take is that Bowen and Shorten have their ducks lined up and will be seen as people with a positive agenda to eliminate rorts and tax avoidance.
Sure, knne jerk reactions from the affected and the disingenuous will float about.
But, as long as Labor sticks with it they’ll have a major perception win over the Libs.
An image of a Party willing to get on with necessary reforms will resonate and be a major boost to Labor.
Kold Konnection @ #381 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 6:00 pm
Most pensioners do not have 2c more than the pension to rub together. Certainly some pensioners invest personally in shares and take dividends. But I find it very difficult to believe that the majority, let alone all, do – as you imply but do not have the courage to state.
Tax cuts aren’t nearly as beneficial as increased funding to services.
Kevin Bonham has some timely cold water to splash on those who see the continued negative Newspolls as a precursor to an ALP win at the next election.
Well worth a read.
Having said that I do not expect the LNP to get a similar kick in the polls that Keating did after he took out Hawke, even if the Libs change horses (to whom?? you may ask.)
I think Peter Martin said that Treasury was already examining the tax imputation stuff – so Morrison is just pretending that it’s all a surprise and a scandal!
Commentator on ‘The Drum’ pointing out that the present system is uniquely Australian. Howard wanted to use the benefits of the mining boom to ‘bribe’ self funded retirees. We no longer have the benefits of the mining boom.
You are missing what I am saying, if a person earns LESS than $18,000 they LOSE the credit, if they earn MORE than $18,000 they continue to get it as they do now.
Labor is hitting the people earning less and giving a pass to those that earn more. The LNP won’t need to do much to convince those being hurt to vote for them, while not having to do a thing about the people that already vote for them earning more that $18000 from share investments are they aren’t even being effected.
Evan @ #374 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 5:48 pm
I bet there are a lot more self-funded retirees living in Point Piper than who survive on cash refunds of imputation credits (as opposed to crediting them against actual tax payable on taxable income).
If I was an age pensioner with $50,000 as a safety net the last place I would be investing it would be the share market.
Retirees, I am told, need a mix of growth and defensive assets. And the smaller the amount in the pot the more defensive you need to be.
Kold Konnection @ #396 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 6:09 pm
In the world of missing what someone is saying, I notice that you have not responded to my comments on the misleading nonsense you are spouting.
Just saying…….
People on $18000 investing 50000 into the market.. ok yeah im sure that common!
zoomster –
Dividend imputation – Keating’s work – is certainly quite unusual, and really only something we do. As I’ve said earlier today this does imply that maybe there is an argument that we should scrap dividend imputation altogether.
… did add the ability to claim the tax credit as a refund, and this is what we are talking about with the ALP’s proposal to remove the ability to claim a refund. But the refund actually makes the system fairer for low income earners. I can well appreciate that Howard’s motivation was to promote share ownership across the whole population so as to make us all little profit-driven capitalists … however that doesn’t alter the fact that Howard’s tweak made the system as a whole more consistent, and removing refunds will disadvantage low-income shareholders.
Labor is thinking of ways to reduce the deficit. LNP are the ones out of control.
I believe you were referring to wage earners they already cross the tax-free threshold. I am not really discussing wage earners as credits don’t effect them in the same way. I am generally talking about those that receive the pension (less than minimum wage) and earn extra on top without being taxed.
Nicko
The people on $18K with $50K to invest probably have a family trust and keep their income below the tax threshold.
Ex of an acquaintance lived a fine life but when they were trying to untangle their finances he was declaring his only income was from his business, run through a trust, and it was $18k.