Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

After taking a step forward in ReachTEL, the government takes a step back in the year’s second Essential poll.

The second poll of the year from the now-fortnightly Essential Research series has Labor’s lead widening from 53-47 to 54-46 — the primary votes will be with us later today.

Among the poll’s other findings are that 73% believe the cost of living has increased over the past year, and 75% believe energy prices have done so. Fifty-one per cent believe the cost of living has increased more quickly than their income, 28% that it has stayed even, and only 14% that their income has increased more. Eighty-three per cent thought the government should do more to make health insurance affordable, and 60% believed health insurance wasn’t worth the premiums.

Thirty-two per cent of respondents thought the political and economic system needed to be fundamentally changed, 48% favoured refinement, and only 8% registered satisfaction with the status quo. Questions on which party was best to handle various issues evoked the usual responses, with the Liberals doing better on managing the economy and terrorism, and Labor doing better on climate change and industrial relations (and, less predictably, housing affordability).

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,702 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Frednk
    “So the greens don’t want the trucks off the west gate. Fair enough; the Green party’s political hide.”

    The Westgate tunnel uses trucks (10% of the traffic or less) to justify a financial gift to Transurban. It is all about commuters and the revenue stream they create. A truck solution is easy – designate a truck only lane and upgrade public transport.

  2. Good to see the vast majority of our nation’s political journalists dealing with the major issues confronting us. I can’t understand why most people don’t read their stuff anymore.

    I was particularly gratified to see on the front page of the SMH that the defection of a ON senator had given the coalition a confidence boost! I was really concerned that their confidence was at a low ebb there for a while.

  3. ‘fess

    From your post a bit further back I think this the pertinent bit –

    But the memo falls well short of providing the material promised by some Republicans: namely, that the evidence it contained would cast doubt on the origins of the Russia investigation and possibly undermine the inquiry, which has been taken over by the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III.

    There so much lack of linking of specific bits to what Nunes group are claiming that he or anyone else are going to fill the gaps.

    It’s a grab bag of miscellaneous crap that’ll sink like a stone.

  4. MSNBC anchors stunned after GOP strategist Rick Wilson says Nunes memo ‘came off like a fart in a hurricane’

    The acerbic political analysis of Republican strategist Rick Wilson left two different MSNBC anchors speechless during an appearance to discuss Congressman Devin Nunes’ (R-CA) memo on Friday.

    “Rick, you’ve got a fiery twitter feed…that is an understatement. you tweeted this today,” Tur began.

    Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson

    Nunes and his little friends
    Vowed to bring the pain
    But Devin’s memo whiffed today
    Like a fart in a hurricane

    “This thing came off today like a fart in a hurricane, it is that inconsequential,” Wilson interrupted.

    “There you have it, a little verse here and there. Look, I think this is an embarrassment,” Wilson admitted.

    “The Republican Party and the enablers with President Hannity over at Fox News hyped this thing into the sky,” Wilson explained. “They turned this into something where they had people believing today you would see Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, James Comey and Susan Rice marched off in handcuffs and instead you’ve got people are laughing at — at Devin Nunes like he is Tommy Wiseau.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/msnbc-anchors-stunned-gop-strategist-rick-wilson-says-nunes-memo-came-off-like-fart-hurricane/

  5. The memo purports to show that the process by which the FBI and Justice Department obtained approval from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court to conduct surveillance on former Trump adviser Carter Page was deeply tainted. It does this by straining every which way to suggest that the basis for the warrant was the so-called “Steele dossier,” which contains Democratic-funded research by former British spy Christopher Steele. This is supposed to show that the genesis of the probe was grounded in partisan dirty tricks and that, as a result, the Mueller investigation — which grew out of the original FBI probe launched during the campaign — constitutes a “deep state” coup to overthrow the president, justifying an effort to quash or constrain it.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/02/02/the-nunes-memo-is-out-its-a-joke-and-a-sham/?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-f%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.04e2b6a5f8e5

    Why aren’t the Republicans arguing against FISA on grounds that its inherently secretive process is the problem as surely this would be self-evident? But no, apparently they are fine with FISA just so long as it isn’t investigating Trump’s Russia collusion.

  7. CTar1 @ #2219 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 8:42 am

    I try to be realistic.

    Would anyone taking even 1 minute to think about it not conclude, for instance, that Putin would be as concerned as anyone else with Trump’s baiting of NK and the possible consequences of it?

    I’m by no means a ‘fan’ of Putin but often people just disregard that what he’s after is peace and stability for Russia.

    CTar1, you might be interested in Tony Kevin’s ‘Return to Moscow’. Realistic would cover it nicely I think.

    Interview in The Conservation.

  8. I’ve teetered on the brink of subscribing to the Guardian a few times but Murphy has always just come up with a stupid article just in time to stop me every time.

  10. Paula Matthewson on Labor and Adani,

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/02/02/turnbull-shorten-2018-challenges/

    Following the resignation of Labor’s David Feeney this week, the first of these contests is likely to be for the Victorian seat of Batman, which could fall from Labor’s hands into the Greens’.

    That explains Bill Shorten’s comments on the Adani coal mine – which is strongly opposed by the Greens – and renewable energy. However an anti-Adani position might not be as useful for Labor if it has to face by-elections in regional Queensland where the project is seen favourably as a job creator.

  11. CTar1

    I find your knowledgeable remarks on the workings of the APS very interesting, and wonder why CPG journos don’t find it part of their remit to learn how the system works.

    It really doesn’t take much extra effort to become an ‘expert’ on any subject!!!

  12. CTar:

    Yes, but I seriously doubt the absence of a smoking gun in the memo is going to deter Trump from trying to derail Mueller’s investigation . That the Republicans and the WH have gone to such lengths to do so thus far is just further evidence that Mueller’s inquiries need to continue.

  16. in regional Queensland where the project is seen favourably as a job creator.

    Believing all the promotion about jobs encouraged by Adani lies and the Coal.

  18. poroti @ #2233 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 9:30 am

    Good gravy ! ‘Murpharoo’ starts off the year on exactly the same page she was on last year. You can imagine the ‘lurve’ and number of “This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn’t abide by our community standards.” in the comments section

    Malcolm Turnbull sidelines Bill Shorten by looking on bright side

    Prime minister opens new political year with his tail up, while Shorten has a byelection to worry about

    Sidelined my arske. If anyone looked sidelined this week it was Turnbull. This is a another good read in the Sat Paper, on the changing narratives.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/02/03/playbook-the-culture-wars/15175764005757

    As we noted at the top of the story, Turnbull’s recent forays into the issues of the republic, the flag and Australia Day got little traction. Indeed, they served to underline the contradictions between the old Malcolm Turnbull, of whom voters initially approved, and the new one, who is beholden to the hard right of the Liberal Party.
    —
    Meanwhile, on Thursday, Turnbull delivered what was billed as an “agenda setting” speech in Toowoomba, spruiking the creation of those 403,100 new jobs last year. He claimed it was the result of his government’s trickle-down company tax cuts.

    In the absence of real wage growth, though, there’s Buckley’s chance he’ll get any real poll bounce out of it. Ian McAllister speaks with the authority of 30 years of electoral surveys: “Jobs haven’t been an issue since the 1990s recession.”

    What’s left is culture war. But as much as he tries, Malcolm Turnbull is not much good at it.

  19. phoenixRed:

    Did you see Scaramuchi is on Real Time today? The foul-mouthed buffoon The Mooch vs the equally foul-mouthed but intelligent smart ass Bill Maher!

  20. Lane Sainty‏Verified account
    @lanesainty

    Lyle Shelton has stepped down as managing director of the Australian Christian Lobby to go into politics.

    In queensland, apparently, next Fed election.

  22. Confessions says: Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 10:20 am

    phoenixRed:

    Did you see Scaramuchi is on Real Time today? The foul-mouthed buffoon The Mooch vs the equally foul-mouthed but intelligent smart ass Bill Maher!

    ***************************************************

    THANKS Confessions ….. should be a treat !!!!

  23. Most of the political analysis around Adani is totally misguided. Unless something really extreme happens it simply is NOT going ahead.

    What the political analysis SHOULD be about is which party is better positioning itself to cope with the inevitable collapse of the project.

    There are arguments both ways. The coalition may be better of being able to bleat for years about Greenies killing off such a great job producing project. But my money is on the proposition that Labor gradually edging away from it on financial and environmental grounds will stand them in good stead when everyone sees coal disappearing as a fuel over the next decade or so

  24. This sounds a bit weird.

    Phil Real‏ @philkeep8real · 13h13 hours ago

    So Jackie Lambi is born and raised in Australia for all 46 years of her life but removed from politics because her dad is a Scot. Lucy Gichuhi born in Kenya, spent 39 years in Kenya. Kenyan government intervened to help her enter Aussie politics and SHE is allowed to govern?

  25. Lyle Shelton has stepped down as managing director of the Australian Christian Lobby to go into politics.

    Great. Just what our parliament needs: another fervently religious happy clapper!

    Hopefully he’ll join Family First or be placed in an unwinnable seat for the LNP and we are spared his meddling with policy.

  28. Good morning all,

    Could anyone point me in the direction of one Queensland by election that labor may have to fight in regional Queensland the result of which would hang on Adani ?

    I would have thought Cathy O’Toole Herbert would be more in the line of fire and not Lamb in Longman that takes in areas such as ” regional” Bribie Island.

    I am a Brisbane boy so perhaps DavidWH or others may have more of a ” vibe” re Longman and Adani but to me it seems a stretch.

    Cheers.

  29. Ricky Gervais liked
    Sir John‏ @BruhManInSoCal
    19h19 hours ago

    Maybe I can reach the #MAGA loyalists out there with this small nugget of common sense.

    One doesn’t work this hard to discredit an investigation that is destined to prove their innocence. #RemoveNunes #SOTU #Resist #TrumpRussia #Traitors #Treason
    120 replies 1,166 retweets 2,584 likes

  30. Lyle Shelton was a failed LNP candidate at the 2006 Qld election in a conservative city (Toowoomba) after serving on the local council for some time.

    Going back to something you failed at so comprehensively before doesn’t seem smart to me.

  32. Morning all.

    Beautiful coolth, mixed cloud and sun, light breeze.
    #weatheronPB.

    Do we have a progress report from the Noddy Squad on the Brown and Bhathal backstabbings?
    Or are they playing Pygmy Possum?

  34. Those who have castigated Katharine Murphy for her article this morning perhaps should read her conclusion before having her hung drawn and quartered. To me, all she seems to be saying is that Turnbull is starting the year with some positives that he didn’t have last year while Shorten is starting it with some challenges that he wasn’t facing last year – which is basically true.

    But that does not mean she believes that Turnbull will now conquer all and march on to a famous victory. Consider her conclusion below, especially the first paragraph.

    But just because you have turned up to the office with something to say doesn’t mean it actually makes sense, or that deeply irritated voters will buy it, or you – or that your internal opponents will let you deliver the message without constant interference.

    Turnbull has enjoyed a summer of respite from the relentless drumbeat of terrible opinion polls, the epic feelpinions of the ranting bobble heads, and the constant disruption of the six-second news cycle.

    But that world, the one that closes in on leaders and makes everything feel borderline impossible, returns on Monday.

  36. davidwh,

    Thanks for your reply.

    I thought the same. That is why all this conjecture re labor and Adani and its effect on “regional Queensland by elections ” stands out to me as pure rubbish.

    Cheers and have a great day.

  38. If they can sneak a born and bred Kenyan into POTUS we shouldn’t be too surprised if they sneaked one into our Senate.

    the illuminati ??

  39. Ctari

    The Nunes memo is defintely underwhelming at least that part of it which is relaesed.
    BUT it lists a number of senior figures who failed to provide accurat information to the court, especially the very latest time they sought spying approval SAFTER steele was a discredited witness and no long er used by the FBI.

    It is not clear in the memo but from the dates it seems certain that Rosenstein was the one who signed the court request AFTER he knew steele was no longer a trusted source.

    Of course possibly he did advise the court of Steele’ loss of status, in which case he is off the hook, but if he did know and still signed the court request he is a goner.

    At the very least, he should like Jeff sessions have removed himself from the Russian spy stuff or at least not has a hand in selecting Mueller.

    I do not think the memo touches Mueller in any way but Rubenstein should be looking at the Jobs column.

  40. Darn @ #2283 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 10:41 am

    Those who have castigated Katharine Murphy for her article this morning perhaps should read her conclusion before having her hung drawn and quartered.

    I read the whole article. Murphy throws in a few ambiguous comments to make her articles look a bit more”balanced” towards the end, but there is no question that she is a paid up member of the Turnbull Admiration Society who still believes “The Real Malcolm” (TM) will show up one day.

    I found the comments more interesting than the article itself. I guess the fact that Murphy can generate such angry feedback is precisely why they keep her on. She’s click-bait.

  41. lizzie

    why CPG journos don’t find it part of their remit to learn how the system works.

    Tks.

    It puzzles me too.

    It’s not a big ask to get a grip on it and they miss lots of what is worth reporting while they spend a week chasing each others tails around about things that are not.

  42. By the way,

    Shorten is well aware that if labor does go down the path of formal opposition to Adani that the party,in the lead up to the general election, will need to have in place strong options for job creation in those regional areas of Queensland with significant unemployment.

    Adani does have strong support in many regional Queensland communities. People do not care about the micro issues they want work and the perception is Adani will provide that work directly or as a flow on.

    So, if labor does oppose the mine and, or, Adani collapses on its own, Shirten will need to have policies that give people hope for full time secure work in alternative industries.

    Shorten is well aware of this.

    Cheers.

  43. Doyley

    Longmn has a strong One Nation vote and that is influenced by regional matters and Adani.

    The ALP needs One Nation preferences (or a decent share of them) to win the seat.

  44. Darn

    “Those who have castigated Katharine Murphy for her article this morning perhaps should read her conclusion before having her hung drawn and quartered. To me, all she seems to be saying is that Turnbull is starting the year with some positives that he didn’t have last year while Shorten is starting it with some challenges that he wasn’t facing last year – which is basically true.”

    My take on it too.

  47. Interesting if Batman date is announced immediately or the Libs use a delay to force the inevitable Longman by election.

    Same day may actually be better for Labor, is it better to lose one or lose one , win one.

    Given the polling you would think Labor shouldn’t be frightened of a direct Labor / Liberal fight In Longman? and it’s a fight the Liberals couldn’t really duck.

  48. The key news about Batman is this: the Greens fringe dwellers are oxygenating the racist reactionaries.

    Thy can wreck but they can’t build.
    They can talk but they can’t do.
    The can hector but they can’t gandhi.
    Flaneurs, poseurs, dilettantes
    while the real world flashes past.

  49. Labor’s new realpolitik on Adani will be viewed cynically by many in Batman and will probably be seen as unauthentic, along the lines “Shorten will say anything to win the seat”, if he does not categorically rule out his support with an emphatic and unambiguous “No”.

    If a by-election was being run in Longman, for example, environmental concerns about a mine would not be front and centre of its campaign there.

  50. The Protocol of the Elders of GOP and the Protocol of the Elders of Zion are same same

    and both were written by the russians… 🙂

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