In a week where only Essential Research reported a national voting intention result, BludgerTrack records a tick to Labor – although it’s actually due to me finally being able to add last fortnight’s ReachTEL to the mix, for which I hadn’t previously been able to get full primary vote numbers, and which was actually a bit of a shocker for the Coalition by the pollster’s standards. As for the state breakdowns, all I can really offer at the moment is apologies for how screwy the Queensland numbers are looking. Whether because of state election static, or simply a freakish accumlation of outliers over a very short period, six of the last seven results I have from Queensland have the Coalition primary vote at 30% or below, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election. It will be interesting to see what we get from the Newspoll quarterly aggregation, which should be along in a week or two. Essential had its montly leadership ratings this week, which have givenn Malcolm Turnbull a bit of a lift. Full results on the sidebar.
Maude Lynne @ #27 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 7:58 am
This is a surprisingly common attitude. Yes, global warming is real, but we don’t actually need to do anything about it, except perhaps throw a little more money at the polluters.
God/Technology/The Market will save us!
maude,
Please don’t go all Billie Snedden on us. We didn’t lose. We just did not win enough seats to form Government!
However you mix it, Labor did not achieve 50% + 1 and so did not win.
Maude:
Agreed.
Any chance KKeneally will be offered the soon to be vacant senate seat?
Ah, GG, I also remember Billie Mackie Snedden (‘call me Bill’)
No, it was a loss which I would have preferred not occurred. Like so many here, I was out handing out leaflets, too, and personally involved. Hard not to feel loss.
But, it was a swing consistent with William’s Bludgertrack, and I don’t agree there was any ‘by election effect’ which can account for that swing.
And that is what i take comfort in.
vic:
According to Insiders there’s a good chance of that happening.
Personally I think she should contest Bennelong again, esp if JA retires at the next election.
Confessions @ #106 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 9:35 am
Agreed. KK would be wasted in the senate.
Apparently, today is the 50 year anniversary since a PM went missing in action.
She hasn’t been able to hold down a job since 2011 so job placement for KKK in the senate makes sense.
Agreed, P1 and ‘Fess
KK is sharp, she’s fiery, and definitely HoR material.
Glad Insiders are picking apart the PM’s ridiculous argument re indigenous advisory body on Qanda.
A definite low point of the program thanks to a cowardly, gutless PM.
ESJ,
Like many working mothers, she has prioritised her children in those years. You can sneer but, I give her credit for that choice.
Player One @ #107 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 9:36 am
Running again in bennelong would be a mistake. She might win. But, she would be washed away in the first anti-labor swing. Find her a safer seat!
No gg she’s had jobs just couldn’t hold them down.
My feeling about QLD is that Labor stands to pick up 5 seats with another 4-5 potentially going to Katter or Labor or LNP and potentially Ryan going Green.
So Forde, Flynn, Petrie, and Bonner are very winnable. The marginal regional seats are unpredictable so Capricornia, Dawson, Leichhardt could go any way but there will be an anti Turnbull swing. (There are others too eg Wide bay, Bowman)
Much as I wish it I assume the Tuber will hang on in Dickson due to high profile.
The recent state election will give Greens a boost in Ryan and a 9% swing against the Libs of which say 5% went to the greens and 4% Labor, combined with a shift of say 2% Labor to Greens could turn the seat Green.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/investigations/secret-woolworths-deal-with-shoppies-union-cuts-wages-20171216-h05t1p.html
Greensborough Growler @ #113 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 9:43 am
Gotta win government first, GG. I doubt anyone else would have as good a chance of winning Bennelong!
John Watkins?
He managed to hold Ryde for Labor for years at the state level. Heard he was the back up candidate if KK didnt run.
Interesting question – do the greens have the capacity to take doctors wives type liberal seats. Remains to be seen.
Clearly the inner city/ inner urban seats of the eastern seaboard will ultimately reside with the greens ala Melbourne and Batman but does the greens potential go wider.
I think the greens will need to drop the watermelon type rhetoric – Id have to say di Natale is a perfect leader for this type of shift.
Player One @ #117 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 5:48 am
If you can win Bennelong then winning Government won’t be an issue.
Bennelong won’t be the tipping point, so why waste a long term prospect on an unstable seat?
Player One @ #117 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 9:48 am
Can’t disagree. So, maybe Labor should put her in a more winnable seat rather than waste her popularity and polical skills on windmill tilts!
Good final observation by Savva showing she does have a sense of humour. 😀
Pegasus @ #116 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 9:48 am
So much for Bill Shorten’s ALP looking after workers.
I urge voters to consider voting 1 the Reason Party in the senate at the next election.
Which particular seat do you have in mind GG? A currently more marginal Lib seat, or a flat out safe Labor seat (of which I’m unaware of any, which isn’t to say one doesn’t exist).
Edwina StJohn @ #119 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 9:51 am
Given the Greens have just skewered extreme left senator Rhiannon, you may be right.
Rex r u surprised ? The only surprise is that labor isn’t doing more “right sizing” of pay rates for vulnerable workers.
If a union screws a workforce it’s ok.
The NSW Greens are the watermelons. The rest of the branches are the environmentalist side.
Confessions @ #124 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 9:55 am
They might run her in Batman.
I flagged this earlier in the week.
It’s finally happened!
Australia’s first SSM!!!!
Happy day!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/17/australias-first-same-sex-marriages-take-place-under-special-dispensation
Keneally ought to stick with a media career and forget about politics while the neo-libs are running the ALP.
“I urge voters to consider voting 1 the Reason Party in the senate at the next election.”
That is just so ironic coming from you Rex.
Barney in Go Dau @ #120 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 9:52 am
KK has brought Bennelong to the point of being winnable again. But I think only she could do it. On the other hand, she would not have a track record anywhere else, so why waste the good will she has just built up?
Much as I like KK, I don’t think she is a long term prospect. She’s a dressage pony, not a long-distance stayer.
GG:
Surely she would be better off running in a NSW seat.
Would she have as much recognition in Vic?
Rex Douglas @ #123 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 9:54 am
I would certainly urge all Green voters to do so!
Question : would you trust a union official to represent a member of your family who had a problem at work?
The union would be more likely to help the boss slot them to maintain the working relationship with the boss.
kevjohnno @ #131 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 9:59 am
There is no reason to vote for the ALP given the shoppies/Woolworths deal.
Edwina
The Greens just took a Liberal Seat in Qld State election. It is definitely a Doctors wives type seat, although it also has the major university so it has a few inner city attributes.
Scott Emerson was defeated, which was a pretty extraordinary event. Possibly there was a synergistic effect, since BOTH Greens and ALP had excellent candidates and they may have each drawn votes from the Libs.
Should Jane Prentice resign or not run then Ryan is definitely a chance for a green snatch from the LNP. Once it would have been Brisbane but Trevor Evans is young and has cemented himself in I am told.
Getting KK to run in Batman is more of an insult than Feeney.
She’s nobody’s girl ides of March.
abcnews: #BREAKING: Australian Federal Police charge 59yo Sydney man for allegedly acting as economic agent for North Korea ab.co/2BjOc3T
abcnews: More in story: The man has been charged with brokering sales and discussing the supply of weapons of mass destruction ab.co/2BjOc3T #NorthKorea #Sydney twitter.com/abcnews/status…
Player One @ #132 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 5:59 am
So, basically your saying use her if you can and then throw her away.
Any Opposition Leader worth their salt would have been able to parlay this government’s diabolical difficulties into a larger swing than the mediocre 5% achieved in Bennelong. The government is held in very low regard by voters and its internal divisions bleed into public view. Bennelong is a tough seat for Labor to do well in but the circumstances are exceptional and the demographics of the seat are not wholly unfavourable to Labor. Despite the immense resources that Labor put into this seat, and the exceptional trouble that the government is in, all Labor could get was a garden variety swing that a generic opposition would achieve against a reasonably performing government.
P1 I think you are spot on with the dressage pony comparison.
Confessions @ #133 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 10:00 am
We do get the papers here in Victoria. So, yeah she would have a good profile.
Just a bit of lateral thinking from me. However, Martin Ferguson was parachuted in to Batman many years ago and he his NSW Labor royalty So, not unheard of in these parts. She’d be good candidate for a seat like mine Jaga Jaga. I’m not sure if Jenny Macklin is running again.
Fess
KKeneally has the option of returning to her Sky news gig and wait till next election to have another tilt at Bennelong.
On another note, this week it was reported that the Auditor General here in Victoria stated that the level crossing removals etc was not value for money.
I was at a function yesterday and met people who live in the Bentleigh area, where the crossing removals have already taken place. They were done very quickly and obviously cost a pretty penny.
Verdict from these people is that it has been the best thing. They used to get stuck at the boom gates in morning peak for about 20 to 25 minutes.
It has been a big hit with the local community. Hopefully they will reward the state Vic Labor govt at the next election with their vote!!
If Batman goes to a by-election Greens candidate Alex Bathal will be running again.
She has put in the hard yards running 5 times since 2001 iirc, a social worker and grassroots community activist who has built a high profile having lived in the area for many years.
Passionate, dedicated and hard-working; a genuine individual who works hard for change.
Nicholas
Mark Kenny had it right. Its a safe Liberal seat.
Undoes your whole argument.
Maiwar yes maybe a pointer dtt.
The greens pattern seems to be to build up from local council through to the federal seat.
Seems like once they get in they are very hard to shift. In the inner city they are more representative than the labor left.
The economics is critical if they are going to make the leap into the liberal seats but how you do that without losing the inner city is key.
PR coalitions are the way Of the future. At least we would all know what we are actually voting for.
I’m no fan of the SDA, but this kind of apples-and-oranges comparison is just rubbish.
Clearly, working in a ‘dark store’ (ie a warehouse) has different requirements than working in a regular store with actual customers wandering around. Dress requirements, ability to work around customers, different OHS issues, etc etc.
Clearly there isn’t enough information to judge whether this is a good deal for workers, but jumping to the conclusion that it isn’t – without context – is … all together far too typical of both Pegasus’ contributions and the general discussion around union bargaining.
The point about bargaining is that there is give and take. That you can find a measure whereby it looks like something has been given up is meaningless without knowing what the overall balance was.
Barney in Go Dau @ #141 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 10:06 am
No, I’m saying that while I think she’d be a good local member, she was certainly not a good Premier, nor would she be a good PM. The ALP needs to recognize the talents she brings to the party and use them to best advantage. I expect them to do that with all candidates.
(Edited to clarify which parts were quoted!)