Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Essential defies the weekend narrative by recording a move to Labor, and finds Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop in a statistical dead heat for preferred Liberal leader.

After a weekend of relatively good electoral and polling news for the government, Essential Research records Labor’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 55-45. A preferred Liberal leader question has Malcolm Turnbull down four since July to 21%, Julie Bishop down one to 19% and Tony Abbott unchanged on 10%. More detail on both of these will be available when Essential Research publishes its full results later today. On the question of a potential leadership change, 18% said it would make them more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 13% for less likely and 54% for no difference.

The poll also found 38% wanted the Liberals and Nationals to continue working together, compared with 34% who thought they should be independent – with the former option heavily favoured by Coalition voters. Fifty-four per cent said they favoured majority government, with 25% preferring minor parties holding the balance of power. Fifty-one per cent felt politicians should be forced to resign from parliament if they resigned from their party, with only 24% holding the opposite view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,205 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Mark Dreyfus just took a swipe at George Brandis and his legal ability on the way through to outlining Labor’s case against the Amendments. 😀

  2. zoomster @ #1843 Thursday, December 7th, 2017 – 5:26 pm

    bemused

    ‘Could not the HC interpretations be over-ridden by Parliament passing legislation to define such matters?’

    No. The Constitution trumps any legislature.

    Otherwise Parliament could change the rules anytime they wanted to.

    You are missing the point. I am not talking about over-riding the Constitution, just the bits where it is silent and the HC has filled the gaps. i.e. over-ride HC interpretations, not the Constitution itself.

  3. The High Court’s interpretation of what the Constitution says IS what the Constitution says, unless and until the High Court says differently.

  4. As the final ME debate drags on in parliament with Abbott, Katter and assorted religious loons worrying that ME will convert young christian men into Al Quaida supporters or worse, what is the speaker doing?

    Having your say is one thing, but some of this stuff is quite irrelevant, a cynical attempt to drag it out beyond reporting deadlines for the 6pm news. Any other topic and the speaker, if competent and unbiased, would have ruled the points irrelevant hours ago. Sorry, but he is a terrible speaker.

  5. Final delaying tactic, trying to split the amendment after it has been introduced.

    They don’t have much imagination they tried similar tactics in the Senate.

    Rightfully failed!!!

  6. One side of the tories want to give all the credit to Turnbull, the other side seem determined to stop him getting the credit on the 6pm news.

  7. As opposed to simply ‘Marriage Celebrant’. So that there will be 2 classes now.
    I guess if you want to put yourself in the category of ‘Religious Marriage Celebrant’ but you are not a Minister of Religion, I’m not sure, but now you will be able to.

    Happy to be corrected.

  8. So are the RWNJs just trying to delay the vote until after the evening news so Malcolm isn’t seen to get a “win” on the telly?

  9. C@tmomma @ #1867 Thursday, December 7th, 2017 – 1:39 pm

    As opposed to simply ‘Marriage Celebrant’. So that there will be 2 classes now.
    I guess if you want to put yourself in the category of ‘Religious Marriage Celebrant’ but you are not a Minister of Religion, I’m not sure, but now you will be able to.

    Happy to be corrected.

    Temporary category for existing celebrants and you only have 90 days to nominate as such.

    After that there will be no further additions and will effectively cease to exist once those celebrants retire from the industry.

    Basically a grandfather clause for existing celebrants only.

  10. So are the RWNJs just trying to delay the vote until after the evening news so Malcolm isn’t seen to get a “win” on the telly?

    I thought that they might be filibusting in the hope of sending the bill back to the Senate, which would most likely delay the bill until next year, maybe after the next election if it’s called early.

  11. I assume there are a large number of LGBTQI electors in Higgins. They should know that their MP, Kelly O’Dwyer, is voting for religious intolerance being extended to them.

  12. HarryCook: We did it. Our LGBTQ community got this done. Not our pathetic excuse for a government. This is what decades of activism results in. This is not yours @TurnbullMalcolm . This is OURS. ️‍✊ #marriageequality

  13. AMEquality: It’s a YES! Simply and fairly, #MarriageEquality is now law! Today our country can be truly proud. We did it together! pic.twitter.com/lGZgUgSmyL

  14. Anyone know who were the two voices who voted ‘No’ against the Bill being read a 3rd time, so sparking a Division?
    I guess we’ll find out now.

  15. The Constitution has to stand on its own in terms of interpretation since it is a different level to regular legislation (and provides the basis for regular legislation to operate at).

    There are parts of the Constitution that were written to have effect ‘until the Parliament otherwise provides’, and that formulation explicitly allows for legislation to override those specific bits of the Constitution, but if it doesn’t explicitly say this then, no, I don’t think regular legislation can alter the meaning or impact of the Constitution.

    If we want to change what is written in s44, and what the HC has subsequently clarified about the operation of s44, we will have to do so by referendum to explicitly change the Constitution.

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