Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Essential defies the weekend narrative by recording a move to Labor, and finds Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop in a statistical dead heat for preferred Liberal leader.

After a weekend of relatively good electoral and polling news for the government, Essential Research records Labor’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 55-45. A preferred Liberal leader question has Malcolm Turnbull down four since July to 21%, Julie Bishop down one to 19% and Tony Abbott unchanged on 10%. More detail on both of these will be available when Essential Research publishes its full results later today. On the question of a potential leadership change, 18% said it would make them more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 13% for less likely and 54% for no difference.

The poll also found 38% wanted the Liberals and Nationals to continue working together, compared with 34% who thought they should be independent – with the former option heavily favoured by Coalition voters. Fifty-four per cent said they favoured majority government, with 25% preferring minor parties holding the balance of power. Fifty-one per cent felt politicians should be forced to resign from parliament if they resigned from their party, with only 24% holding the opposite view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,205 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. A day after the MSM was full of how Newspoll marked a turning point and Brian Trumble was on is way back, this poll drops.

    What’s the bet this gets absolutely no coverage at all, except in the Grauniad of course.

  4. ReachTEL is conducting a poll in Bennelong. The focussed on threat to Medicare, local issues, cost of living and border protection.

  5. The likelihood that the HoR will be sitting at least until midnight tonight to allow all MPs to air their opinion on SSM confirms how ridiculous it was for Truffles to have a week off.

  6. Morning all.
    Apparently Morrison said this in his speech yesterday on the SSM bill:

    “Separation of church and state, does not mean the inoculation of the influence of faith on the state.”

    I thought that is precisely what separation of church and state meant.
    Malcolm Turnbull to vote for religious protections in same-sex marriage law
    http://www.afr.com/news/malcolm-turnbull-to-vote-for-religious-protections-in-samesex-marriage-law-20171203-gzxwws?btis

    Interesting Turnbull is on Q&A next week, presumably SSM will have passed parliament by then. I suppose they have a tradition of having former PMs on the program.

  7. Lucky we’ve got such a shrewd businessman as Prime Minister:

    Foxtel locks NBN into troubled HFC network through Brian Trumble’s Telstra deal

    http://www.afr.com/technology/web/nbn/foxtel-locks-nbn-into-troubled-hfc-network-through-turnbulls-telstra-deal-20171203-gzxqk8

    Prime Minister Brian Trumble faces expensive embarrassment if NBN Co cannot rectify problems that have halted the rollout of the HFC network he championed, as the company confirmed taxpayers will be forced to pay to maintain it for Telstra to broadcast Foxtel, even if it is ditched from the NBN.

    To switch away from HFC at this stage would be politically unpalatable for the government, and shadow Communications Minister Michelle Rowland said the government and NBN management were scrambling to appear to be fixing the problem to appease an increasingly restless population.

    “NBN Co knew about the HFC problem back in 2015, this didn’t just fall from the sky … At every juncture, NBN Co has put consumers last until the media shined the spotlight,” Ms Rowland said.

    “NBN executives can spin it however they want, or try to blame whoever they want, but this latest HFC debacle falls squarely at their feet. Trumble owns the policy failure, and NBN have compounded it with implementation failures.”

  8. 55-45 has a nice ring to it. Go Labor!

    UK BrExit:

    The BBC is reporting that although the EU look to be satisfied on the UK’s acceptance of financial obligations and citizenship they are looking less so that ‘sufficient progress’ has been made on arrangements for the Irish Border.

    BrExit is seriously in doubt.

    Regardless of ‘exit’ or not it will take decades for the UK economy to recover and I think it will get much worse before it gets better.

    The loss of UK ‘clout’ in Europe and generally in world affairs will probably never be recovered.

    Silly Poms …

  10. I tested doing this yesterday morning and it seemed yo work. So here goes!

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Katy Gallagher might be off to the High Court.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labors-katy-gallagher-faces-high-court-challenge-as-other-mps-dispel-citizenship-doubts-20171204-gzy81s.html
    Michael Koziol writes about Tim Wilson’s SSM speech and marriage proposal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/samesex-marriage-the-day-tim-wilson-got-the-answer-to-the-question-he-can-now-ask-20171204-gzy7t8.html
    And controversial amendments to the same-sex marriage legislation are poised for defeat in Parliament this week, with key crossbenchers and Liberal MPs refusing to back them.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/samesex-marriage-amendments-to-be-blocked-in-lower-house-as-final-debate-begins-20171204-gzy55g.html
    Phil Coorey writes that Malcolm Turnbull says he supports adding extra protections to the same-sex marriage bill, even though he does not believe they are needed and are likely to be defeated. Looks like rank tokenism directed the RWNJs to me. Google.
    /news/malcolm-turnbull-to-vote-for-religious-protections-in-samesex-marriage-law-20171203-gzxwws
    Have we got just three months to avert a US attack on North Korea?
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/04/three-months-avert-us-strike-north-korea-nuclear-missile-kim-jong-un
    Peter Martin on how Melbourne’s living standards are falling in the wake of the collapse of manufacturing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/melbourne-living-standards-slip-as-manufacturing-slides-to-record-low-20171204-gzy7gg.html
    Andrew Bolt has delivered a swipe at Malcolm Turnbull, accusing the PM of speaking to his bosses. Poor Andrew! Google.
    /news/nation/andrew-bolt-accuses-malcolm-turnbull-of-going-behind-his-back/news-story/a34d3e991e6300b0a5596f9d9f4e8f93
    Adam Gartrell on how the government’s backpacker tax may be under doubt with respect to international treaties.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-governments-backpacker-tax-under-legal-doubt-over-international-treaties-20171203-gzy06s.html
    The Turnbull government has abandoned its landmark industry superannuation changes for this year, bowing to intense lobbying of crossbench senators.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-delays-superannuation-changes-20171204-gzyek7.html
    In capitulating to a Royal Commission into the banks, the Turnbull government has managed to trim the architects of global tax avoidance from the terms of reference, the Big Four accounting firms that is, while slotting in the industry funds sector. The union-backed funds are the natural political enemies of the Coalition and the move has been met with resistance. Michael West investigate the sector leader, the $100 billion behemoth which is Australian Super.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/industry-super-size-no-boost-to-performance/
    Jennifer Hewett has a good look at GetUp! Google.
    /opinion/columnists/getup-gets-going-with-conservative-politicians-in-its-sights-20171204-gzy8ox
    “Are wages turning the corner?” asks Eryk Bagshaw.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/wages-could-be-starting-to-turn-a-corner-20171204-gzy9s4.html
    How well will Australia Post handle the Christmas rush?
    http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/managing/when-the-post-is-a-nightmare-for-small-business-20171129-gzvo83.html
    Compared to Albo Pyne couldn’t run a chook raffle!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-loses-vote-on-floor-of-house-of-representatives-as-labor-swoops-20171204-gzyho1.html
    Greg Jericho writes that when just a few supermarkets, banks and telcos dominate the market, the government needs to ensure consumers aren’t being taken for a ride. As usual his article is full of factual supporting data.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/dec/05/australian-consumers-need-protecting-in-an-economy-dominated-by-so-few-players
    This former senior public servant laments the rough trot that the APS has copped from the government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/getting-scrooged-whats-left-in-the-public-service-christmas-stocking-after-a-dismal-2017-20171203-gzxu9t.html
    And an IR lawyer tells us that Public servants in dispute with their employer are unfairly outgunned. He states “The jurisprudence has diverged considerably, to the benefit of the federal government and to the disadvantage of everyone else.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/fair-work-commission-gives-government-a-helping-hand-while-shackling-its-staff-20171202-gzxdl4.html
    Imre Salusinszky reviews Gareth Evans’ latest book and gives it a big tick. Interestingly Evans paid tribute to the outstanding capabilities of the public service.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/book-review-gareth-evans-incorrigible-optimist-a-political-memoir-20171202-gzxh0d.html
    Professional arsehole Milo Yiannopoulos took aim at Indigenous Australians, Muslims and Australian media personalities in an event in Melbourne marred by violent protests.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/altright-provocateur-milo-yiannopoulos-takes-aim-at-his-usual-suspects-in-expletiveladen-melbourne-gig-20171204-gzynyv.html
    The New South Wales education minister, Rob Stokes, has urged school principals to throw anti-Islamic letters from One Nation in the nearest recycling bin, saying “perhaps then some good may still come from it”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/04/principals-urged-to-throw-one-nation-senators-anti-islamic-letters-in-recycling-bin
    An agreement struck between Britain and the EU to move to the next phase of Brexit talks was torpedoed by a last-minute disagreement over the Irish border with the Democratic Unionist party on Monday, to the embarrassment of Theresa May.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/04/juncker-and-may-fail-to-reach-brexit-deal-amid-dup-doubts-over-irish-border
    Richard Mulgan says we are losing the battle on government secrecy. FoI is nobbled. He concludes by writing that the issue will keep simmering away until a future government has the courage to take it up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/freedom-of-information-australians-are-losing-the-battle-against-government-secrecy-20171203-gzxokd.html
    Hundreds of TAFE SA students in substandard courses will be forced to undergo new assessments, as Education Minister Susan Close declared the organisation “in crisis” and announced that its chief executive had quit. What an effort! The chairman also will be sacked. He used to head up Business SA and was not widely liked. Google.
    /news/south-australia/tafe-sa-boss-robin-murt-quits-as-hundreds-of-students-left-unaccreditted/news-story/b7d220034e1e6105cb8866edeb407073
    Unacceptable inequality, insecure jobs: why aren’t young Australians protesting?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/were-mad-as-hell–but-were-going-to-keep-taking-it–why-the-apathy-australia-20171203-gzxmng.html
    Malcolm Knox nicely sums up the Test match.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/the-ashes-englands-preparation-no-match-for-australias-secret-weapon–playing-cricket-20171204-gzym1c.html
    As the market continues to debate the potential impact of the high-powered inquiry led by Kenneth Hayne, analysts are poring over the many ways in which banks’ businesses may feel the sting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/royal-commission-to-loom-over-bank-rates-20171204-gzye1g.html
    This Queensland energy company runs away with the prize for being the most complained about.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/meet-the-nations-most-hated-electricity-company-20171203-gzxymf.html
    Christian Porter is commending his government for ‘taking risks’ with the lives of vulnerable people, writes Jeremy Poxon from the Australian Unemployed Workers’ Union. He’s punching down on the poor he says.
    https://newmatilda.com/2017/12/02/christian-name-not-nature-porter-punches-poor/
    The death of Josh Park-Fing highlights the blatant exploitation of unemployed people, as well as the absence of human rights and legal recourse on the Coalition Government’s Work for the Dole scheme, writes Jade Manson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/lives-of-people-on-work-for-the-dole-are-worth-less,10993
    Australia’s spy chief Nick Warner is set to lead the newly established Office of National Intelligence, part of the Coalition’s powerful new Home Affairs portfolio.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/malcolm-turnbull-names-spy-chief-nick-warner-to-lead-new-security-agency-20171201-gzwx5g.html
    Quentin Dempster reports that global internet platforms Google and Facebook will be coerced by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) to reveal all their commercial secrets.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/12/04/google-facebook-accc/
    The South Australian battery is truly a historic moment for both South Australia, and for Australia’s future energy security. While the size, of the battery might be decried as being small in the context of the National Energy Market, it is important to remember it’s capabilities and role. It may well be a game changer, by delivering services not previously provided by wind and solar PV.
    https://theconversation.com/yes-sas-battery-is-a-massive-battery-but-it-can-do-much-more-besides-88480
    Australian gambling losses have hit an all-time high after punters burned through nearly $24 billion in a year, more than half of which was poured into poker machines at pubs and clubs across the country. But governments are just as hooked as the gamblers!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/australian-gamblers-lose-a-record-24b-in-a-year-20171201-gzwr30.html
    South Australia was ranked as one of the top 10 attractive investment regions for the petroleum industry globally and an industry head said South Australia’s Plan for Accelerating Exploration (PACE) scheme to explore and develop the state’s gas resources was a world leader.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/sa-ranked-one-of-the-most-attractive-oil-regions-in-the-world-20171130-gzw8fy.html
    Jenna Price with another black mark against the name of the White Ribbon organisation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/white-ribbon-has-another-black-mark-against-it-20171203-gzxwt2.html
    Australia’s $300 billion retail sector will face its reckoning on Tuesday after global e-commerce giant Amazon ended months of speculation by flicking the switch on its local website.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/amazon-launches-in-australia-with-millions-of-products-hopes-to-win-consumers-trust-20171204-gzy83a.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe takes us to the knocking shop.

    A lovely contribution from David Pope on the SSM debate in the Lower House.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Cathy Wilcox makes a point about NSW spending priorities.

    John Shakespeare on Shorten’s Dastyari problem.

    A couple of good contributions from Mark David.


    Peter Broelman with some celebrations from over the ditch.

    Paul Zanetti welcomes back the Turnbull/Joyce duo. Note the banjo!

    Matt Golding has three for us today.



    Mark Knight and the ugly Harvey Weinstein fallout.

    Alan Moir and the Channel Nine coverup.

  16. Morning all. Thanks BK. My first question would be for Dutton. Why did he allow Milo Violencefollowshim into the country? He has a long record of hate speech and inciting violence. Surely he could have been barred on character grounds? Even the Republicans have dumped him.

  18. Unusually, I watched Q&A last night and found Erica Betz making himself the star of the show, with constant interjections. I found the whole thing uncomfortable and afterwards found it hard to relax and go to sleep.

    Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 9h9 hours ago

    Q&A puts Gillian Triggs on trial again. Callum the computer lab student who had his ID stolen is in the audience? IPA witch-finder Simon Breheny and RWNJ Eric Abetz also on the show? Both AHRC haters. No sign of any set-up here.

  19. CNN graphic busts Trump for pervy move in Alabama race: ‘Trump endorses accused child molester Roy Moore’

    After President Donald Trump officially endorsed Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (R) on Monday, CNN repeatedly reminded viewers that the GOP hopeful was an “accused child molester.”

    In recent weeks, Trump has refused to endorse Moore by name, but in a tweet on Monday, the president declared his full support for the candidate.

    CNN’s graphics department didn’t mince words after the endorsement. Throughout the morning, the network repeatedly aired a chyron, which read, “TRUMP ENDORSES ACCUSED CHILD MOLESTER ROY MOORE.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/cnn-graphic-busts-trump-for-pervy-move-in-alabama-race-trump-endorses-accused-child-molester-roy-moore/

  22. PhoenixRed

    Yikes indeed. Trump and Co have been rather successful with this operation of “fake news”. Make no mistake, this was part of a long ago strategy to minimise the power of traditional media in order to bypass it and go directly to the people, and brainwash them with their own message and agenda

  23. PhoenixRed

    Remember the woman who was part of the group attempting to set up Washington Post recently with fake story in order to embarrass them and show that the media cannot be trusted to provide true information

  24. Also, I couldn’t believe that none of the panel had caught up with the news that someone present at the meting between Dastyari and Huang is now on Alexander’s ‘team’. They wasted time blaming ASIO.

  25. BK
    Thank you.
    The most disturbing link is to the one with a three month deadline to war in North Korea. I understand that the whole war threat is designed to bring North Korea to heel but one false move by the sabre rattlers and up she goes.

  28. Lizzie

    TIm Wilson was asked about that on the Project last night by none other than Steve Price. Price said wtte that isn’t it an embarrassment for the govt that after their demands of SDastyari etc, it turns out that the advisor of this Huang person in question has gone to run the campaign of JAlexander.

    WIlson responded, that is a mischaracterization, and said wtte that this advisor had quit sometime ago as Advisor to Huang and now as a private citizen went to work for JA.

    of course, it wasn’t followed up. I would have said well in all the gin joints in the world, he had to end up there. What are the odds. lol!

  30. lizzie @ #18 Tuesday, December 5th, 2017 – 7:07 am

    Unusually, I watched Q&A last night and found Erica Betz making himself the star of the show, with constant interjections. I found the whole thing uncomfortable and afterwards found it hard to relax and go to sleep.

    Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 9h9 hours ago

    Q&A puts Gillian Triggs on trial again. Callum the computer lab student who had his ID stolen is in the audience? IPA witch-finder Simon Breheny and RWNJ Eric Abetz also on the show? Both AHRC haters. No sign of any set-up here.

    Big mistake Lizzie. I haven’t watched Q&A for over 6 months, and my Monday nights have improved immeasurably.
    The whole show seems to sum up to me what ABC news and current affairs have become.

  32. Yep, my reaction too – turned to my son about 10 minutes into QandA and said, “This is a stitch up.”

    And such a waste of time, rehashing old arguments which have been dealt with by the courts.

    Yes, an innocent person might have been wrongly accused of something. If we’re going to get repeal a law every time that happens, we soon won’t have any laws left.

  35. Dan G

    Whether Louise Mensch is a Murdoch employee or right winger, has nothing to do with my view on Malcolm Nance. And their views on each other also don’t inform me. I don’t care one iota.

    I have observed Malcolm Nance over the past 18 months, and I have my own views about his agenda and reliability. So far, my assessments have stood me in good stead

  36. rhwombat / DG

    Floppy Disks – I was still using 8 inch floppy disks in 1993/94 to distribute Cobol programs for an old Burroughs computer system.

  37. Northern Ireland , via DUP, again holding the UK to ransom in Ireland! How many times has that already happened? But previously, the rest of Ireland could like it or lump the UK’s willingness to jump to NI’s tune.
    But this time Eire can simply switch off any Brexit deal with the EU.

  38. Poroti

    See post above. I have observed his utterings over the past 18 months, and he gives the impression of being more than what he actually purports to be.

    As I said, my assessments of people have been bearing out over time. I will stick with my assessment of Nance, until I am shown otherwise

  39. of course, it wasn’t followed up

    And isn’t that the core of the problem with Australian journalism today!?! The sort of journalist, as exemplified by Kerry O’Brien, who would persist in asking the obvious follow-up question to an inane, pat and smug answer from a politician, is as rare as hen’s teeth these days.

    I mean, it’s as plain as the nose on your face to Blind Freddy, that the Liberal Party workshopped a response to the Xu revelation in The Daily Telegraph yesterday.

    I put a lot of the problem down to, at least as far as the TV journalists go, to tightly-scripted shows which are crammed with items that have to be gotten through before the end of the program. I notice this especially with The Project. They rattle through their questions, sometimes cut into answers they decide are going for too long, build up to a final, cutting snark question that is designed to leave the guest floundering and embarrassed, if that’s what they have decided in their morning meeting, then they ride over them again and say, ‘thanks and goodbye’, then, cue the roundtable jokes at the expense of the summarily-dismissed ‘guest’. And I use that term advisedly because these days they seem more like sacrificial lambs.

    Or, they let the ‘guest’ get away with blue murder. Like Tim Wilson last night because he pulled a stunt in parliament and you can’t let people’s warm and fuzzies rainbow parade be rained on by trying to get to the nub of a more important story.

    Sheesh! Give me a TV show and I’d give these scurvy bastards what for! I don’t know about ‘Hard Chat’, you’d be getting ‘Hard C@t!’ from me. I guarantee it! 😀

  40. And remember I have my views on Bernie Sanders too, which don’t accord with many here. I have heard some further rumblings lately, which seem to bear out my distrust of him.

  42. c@t

    I haven’t checked out Latika Bourkes twitterfeed today, but I wonder if she has anything to say about the relevation of this advisor who is now running JA campaign. Especially after yesterday morning being so proud of her scoop on Shorten. Of course, she would not reveal her sources, but was her source this advisor?

  43. Bw – I watched AJ in the very early hours trying to work out what that actually means.

    Despite the ‘experts’ they were interviewing live I don’t think anyone knew.

  44. Actually I just looked at Latika’s twitterfeed now. How unsurprising, no further mention of her scoop since she posted the story. Funny that

  45. CTaR1
    He had just ratted on the Houthi mob but did that within gunshot. Fatal mistake.
    I agree that no-one knows what will happen from here.
    Except that a lot of innocents will die younger than they should an in horrible circumstances.
    Australia is, as ever, complicit in its little way: two months ago doing naval ‘exercises’ in the immediate vicinity of the baby-killing blockade.

  47. ‘Professional arsehole Milo Yiannopoulos took aim at Indigenous Australians, Muslims and Australian media personalities in an event in Melbourne marred by violent protests.’

    ‘Middle Class, White English Male Prost*****, sings for his supper’.

  48. The dumbing down of the ABC

    The flagship ABC radio current affairs programs PM and The World Today will be halved in length next year and Business PM will be axed, staff have been told.

    PM and The World Today will both be reduced from hour-long programs to 30 minutes, radio current affairs employees were told at a meeting on Monday by Tanya Nolan, the managing editor of audio current affairs.

    From 22 January The World Today, hosted by Eleanor Hall, will end at 12.30pm instead of 1pm to make way for a new “entertaining” national program on ABC Local Radio hosted by the former Triple J presenter Myf Warhurst.

    Warhurst’s show, which is designed to attract 30- to 40-year-olds with a “lighter” offering, will run until 2pm.

    Staff were told the rationale behind the changes was research showing there were significant increases in audiences consuming on-demand audio and digital content and a drop in the numbers listening to linear broadcasts on the ABC. The under-55 audience was not coming to the ABC as it once did, and something had to be done to reverse the trend.

    …Journalists will also be encouraged to brush up on their conversational and informal talking skills so they can make podcasts and do more live chats.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/dec/05/abc-radio-programs-pm-and-the-world-today-to-be-halved-in-length?CMP=twt_a-media_b-gdnmedia

  50. Victoria

    I don’t pretend to know people, but Malcolm Nance? Seriously!

    Nance’s Level of expertise seems to consist of being introduced on msnbc … with here is our security expert MN … Malcom then saying yes he’s a security expert.

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