Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Essential defies the weekend narrative by recording a move to Labor, and finds Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop in a statistical dead heat for preferred Liberal leader.

After a weekend of relatively good electoral and polling news for the government, Essential Research records Labor’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 55-45. A preferred Liberal leader question has Malcolm Turnbull down four since July to 21%, Julie Bishop down one to 19% and Tony Abbott unchanged on 10%. More detail on both of these will be available when Essential Research publishes its full results later today. On the question of a potential leadership change, 18% said it would make them more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 13% for less likely and 54% for no difference.

The poll also found 38% wanted the Liberals and Nationals to continue working together, compared with 34% who thought they should be independent – with the former option heavily favoured by Coalition voters. Fifty-four per cent said they favoured majority government, with 25% preferring minor parties holding the balance of power. Fifty-one per cent felt politicians should be forced to resign from parliament if they resigned from their party, with only 24% holding the opposite view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,205 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. If the Coalition stays in power the ABC will be, if not broken up and the profitable bits sold, gradually reduced to broadcasting only a Government approved news service plus stuff the commercials aren’t interested in, like rural affairs, religion and kids shows that don’t push toys, games and junk food.

  3. IPA reps are always completely predictable, which makes them irritating and boring at the same time.

    Michael Pascoe‏ @MichaelPascoe01 · 9h9 hours ago

    Amazing effort by IPA tool on #QandA – made Eric look reasonable

  5. IPA – why arent we talking about Trumps tax cuts?

    Tony Jones – the question was about his tweeting of far right muslim haters.

    IPA – Why arent we talking about the tax cuts?

    Questioner is visible upsets expalining how it impacts her

    IPA – tax cuts.

  6. “If the Coalition stays in power the ABC will be, if not broken up and the profitable bits sold”
    If Labor regains power ABC staff and management should demonstrate that they have adhered to the charter and not been appointed for political reasons. If they can’t then sack them.

  7. Loved this comment (after Trump reduced the areas of some US National Monuments by huge amounts)
    “Reducing the size of monument would help free up a lot of land that has been under oppression,”
    What sort of thinking is it think that keeping some land safe from drilling, mining and other exploitation means the land is under oppression!!

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/12/05/trump-outlines-big-cuts-bears-ears-monument-angering-native-american-tribes

  8. booleanbach @ #57 Tuesday, December 5th, 2017 – 5:21 am

    Loved this comment (after Trump reduced the areas of some US National Monuments by huge amounts)
    “Reducing the size of monument would help free up a lot of land that has been under oppression,”
    What sort of thinking is it think that keeping some land safe from drilling, mining and other exploitation means the land is under oppression!!

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/12/05/trump-outlines-big-cuts-bears-ears-monument-angering-native-american-tribes

    By oppression he means under Native American control.

  9. So Turnbull is going to propose amendments to the SSM bill even though he thinks they are not necessary.
    This is the second time in two weeks he has initiated something he doesn’t believe is needed.

    I think I can get see one of the problems with his leadership right there.

  10. Speaking of ABC, AM this morning had yet another LNP blowhard given 5 plus minutes to blame Labor, while Sabra Lane does her nails.

    This morning it was Kelly O’Dwyer, yesterday Darren Chester. Sabra was so pleased with the interview, she couldn’t help exclaiming Excellent! at the end.

  12. There may be a suitable question here for the IPA types…

    John Roskam, the Catholic head of conservative think tank Institute of Public Affairs, confirmed to News Corp that Catholics are circulating bank account details for those who want to assist Cardinal Pell with his legal bills.

    George Pell
    George Pell has been ordered to appear in court in July. Photo: AAP
    “The point of this [fund] is that there are a lot of people who want to support the cardinal and want to give him the opportunity to clear his name,” Mr Roskam told News Corp.

  13. EricA has two main words he uses regularly, “obviously” and “preposterous”.

    “Obviously” is used to proceed an assertion that is normally far from being such and “preposterous” is used to dismiss any valid assertion and he then runs away on a tangent from the point.

    I agree with earlier comments that the show had the appearance of a set up against Triggs especially with the first question and the composition of the panel.

    Jones’ with his moderation was unable or unwilling to bring EricA into line and stop him from dominating the show.

    I was disappointed with Singh, she got on a roll in regards to asylum seekers and pointing out the IPA guys dismissal of the impact of Trump tweets but for much of the programme was she hesitant and after listening to her speak about Dastyari, I’d say “Hang the bastard!”

    Triggs did well in a hostile environment and Kate McClymont made some good contributions.

    The IPA policy director was just that and clearly showed the only prerequisite for his role was a B.A. in History.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/05/qa-detention-regime-is-designed-to-break-refugees-says-gillian-triggs

  14. Ides of March

    Truffles has already hinted at “tax cuts” being part of his “Cunning Plan 2018” so the Coalition Policy Production Dept. IPA chappies will be pleased.

  16. From time to time the Right express the need for their own “GetUp” and also a need to counter Union power, money and their ability to rally their troops. The Right don’t need them, however. The IPA serves as a sort of Right Wing GetUp plus ACTU rolled into one.

    The left need unions and grass roots organisations to work around the old media and the “natural” founts of power, authority and money to get their message across. The Right controls them and is able to use them to push their own message.

  17. 28 November 2017:
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/27/greens-to-introduce-bill-to-legislate-paid-family-and-domestic-violence-leave

    The Greens will introduce a bill to legislate for all employees to get 10 days of paid family and domestic violence leave, in line with a campaign from the Australian Council of Trade Unions.

    5 December 2017:
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/dec/05/labor-pledges-to-introduce-10-days-of-paid-domestic-violence-leave

    Labor has joined calls for all employees to get 10 days paid domestic violence leave, in line with a campaign from the Australian Council of Trade Unions.

    At the 2016 election Labor promised five days’ of paid leave, but the commitment to 10 days brings it in line with the ACTU and the Greens, who promised last week to introduce a bill for 10 days.

  18. Some research on the Greens (which I can’t provide a source for, so you’ll either trust me on it or you won’t…) shows that there is a significant proportion of ‘rusted on’ Greens who are socially progressive but are anti-poor; they don’t want to live near them, see them as a threat to their assets, deeply dislike unions, surburban and regional people, blaming the latter group for lack of action on the issues they see as important.

  20. zoomster,
    The Teal Greens.

    In our area, The Greens chose as their candidate for the Council, a wealthy Accountant, who went on a lengthy overseas holiday after the campaign because he was plumb tuckered out! He got a friend of mine to mind his 2 cats for 5 weeks. 🙂

  21. How the WA Greens conducted a pre-selection for the wrong Senator
    https://boilermakerbill.wordpress.com/2017/12/04/how-the-wa-greens-conducted-a-pre-selection-for-the-wrong-senator/

    In respect of Scott Ludlam’s place, the High Court ordered that Jordon Steele-John take his place, as the next placed candidate in the special recount. It appears, however, the WA Greens thought that this resulted in the second WA Greens Senator, Rachel Siewert getting the six year term as the highest place Green, and Steele-John taking the remainder of her three year term. There are reports that at the weekend, the WA Green conducted a pre-selection contest for the next Senate election, due before 2019, at which Steele-John was the successful candidate.

    With the High Court ordering and declaring that Steele-John was duly elected for the place for which Ludlam was returned, he acquires the six year term. Whatever the WA Greens thought might the case, if they thought Steele-John was up for re-election in 2019, they need to think again.

  22. Good Morning

    Barney

    Simon Breheny showed absolutely no empathy for others. He found out that he was in a bubble. Lots of laughter and groans as his lack of empathy showed.

    His trying to promote Trumps tax cuts instead of how leaders can affect culture and thus encourage hate crimes was telling. He did major damage to the narrative of the right by doing so.

    It was just amazing stuff to watch. So much so it is the highlight on Breakfast News from the show.

    So bad Senator Abetz was able to look sensible by comparison. It was amazing tv to watch.

    I agree regarding the set up of Triggs. I think however she was expecting it. Having Kate McClymont there was excellent at least Triggs was not alone.

    McClymont also pointed out the media is the problem with the short term agenda of our politcs.

  24. Zoomster

    Is that your 30 people focus group research?

    Or is it just what most of the community think and not a Green only thing.

    Most people when asked do not want to live near the poor because they associate crime and anti social behavour with the poor thanks to myths perpertrated by the media for decades.

    You will find Labor voters who think the same.

    This despite the fact that criminals live in wealthy areas and the rich have anti social behaviour.

  25. LGBTIQ Australians reported that they experienced more than double the number of verbal and physical assaults during the three-month marriage law postal survey, according to research released on Tuesday.

    The survey of 9,500 LGBTIQ Australians, their friends and families, conducted by the Australia Institute and the National LGBTI Health Alliance, found that more than 90% reported the postal vote had a negative impact on them “to some degree”.

    Turnbull and Shorten trade barbs over same-sex marriage survey
    Read more
    Despite the 61.6% vote in favour of same-sex marriage in the postal vote, the preliminary results of the self-selecting survey painted a bleak picture of LGBTIQ Australians’ experience during the debate, as the House of Representatives continues to consider the cross-party marriage bill on Tuesday

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/05/marriage-equality-survey-marred-by-doubling-in-reported-assaults?CMP=soc_568

  27. It sounds to me that the HoR hours for debate today have been extended in an effort to get the SSM bill passed so that on Thursday the citizenship debarkle can come to the fore.

  29. CT

    I am amazed that Turnbull is supporting the amendments on “religious freedom” after seeing the survey results.

    They are pretty clear. I just don’t see pandering to the far right winning any new votes to the LNP.

  30. Dan Gulberry

    As wage earners’ share of the national cake continues to shrink we will, like the US peasants, come to have no choice but to buy “Crap brands at crap prices”.

  32. @ guytaur – the electorate has to wait 12-18 months to chuck Turnbull out. The party room could do it at 9:30. Those are the votes that matter.

  33. VE

    Given past assurances from the PM about John Alexander’s citizenship I will wait till Thursday to say that.

    We could be having a general election by February.

  36. Cat

    I had a look. Its exactly same model as in US. The problem for Amazon is that who signs up first.

    It will take time for more recognized brands to become available. Same with prices coming down.

    The good thing is our crap is better than the crap in the US. Unlike them we have good consumer laws in place.

  38. Sonar

    I heard 8 pm tonight.

    Going from the Senate release to me that means Thursday all the trawling investigaton by citizen sleuth’s will have been done.

  39. You know, when you think about the knowledge Mr Xu, former Aide de Camp to Mr Huang, has inside his memory banks, and that only that which is damaging to the Labor Party is leaking out, you have to consider the one-sided nature of it and hopefully balance it out in your head, well, at least I hope the Man on the Clapham Omnibus does, that there probably have been just as many visits to Mr Huang’s humble abode on the cliff top at Mosman by Coalition grandees, as there were by Bill Shorten and Dasher and other Labor types. They just are not going to be reported as there is a Bennelong by-election to win and Mr Xu has chosen his team.

  40. poroti,
    If it wasn’t for the fact that Jeff Bezos is allowing the editorial direction of The Washington Post to be hands-off at his end, I would be anti Amazon from the get-go. Considering their abominable IR record.

    I think I’ll still saunter down to the local KMart and help to keep locals in a job, though.

  41. Eddy Jokovich‏ @EddyJokovich · 1h1 hour ago

    “That guy”, Huang Xiangmo, also facilitated the sale of Darwin ports when the Country Liberals were in power. Who was the local deal maker? Andrew Robb. Some investigations are in order to see who the “real agents of influence” are.

  42. guytaur,
    The prices may be cheap, but as I have found out by using the other online retailers, the sting is in the tail, and that is the amounts they charge you for postage and handling. It usually adds another $5 to $10 to the cost of the item. It’s a lot to pay for convenience.

  43. I only saw the 15 mins of QandA (missed the IPA crap) but was appalled that Abetz talked over Lisa Singh constantly. I wanted to ask if he talked over his wife in the same way – or was she an ‘obedient little wife’ and just put up with it.

  45. So Amazon launches its full assault on Australian retailers today…

    I don’t think they (Oz retailers) should be too worried.

    Amazon has perfected the art of a clumsy, amateurish and utterly uninspiring value proposition through their new website. My 11yo son could and would do a better effort than this. It is so dated, slow and difficult to navigate. Not to mention the lack of any decent product for sale.

    Amateurs. Nothing to see here move along.

  46. Cat

    With Amazon in the US the cost of postage and handling is cheaper than buying here. I buy from their US site sometimes because even including postage and handling its still cheaper and that is with the currency difference into the bargain.

    Only true with some items. Not all.

    The same will be true here eventually. Consumers will be the winner. Its a combination of it takes time for Amazon to do this and the hype by the media raising unrealistic expectations of bargains.
    If you look at the US site its quite plain that the bargains come alright. Just not with the few willing to sign up to start with.

  47. The Daily Telegraph not giving Brian Trumble any respite:

    Nationals backbenchers support John Barilaro’s comments that Malcolm Turnbull should resign by Christmas

    NATIONALS backbenchers have thrown their support behind NSW leader John Barilaro’s comments that Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull should resign by Christmas, with one MP saying he was reflecting the views of “the whole country”.

    http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/news/nationals-backbenchers-supporting-john-barilaros-comments-that-malcolm-turnbull-should-resigns-by-christmas/news-story/2ef433020dc5acccd2ba340f6af209eb?nk=e3701db28f5147e16a6c11420f7a01d7-1512427006

  50. guytaur,
    I’d rather pay a small premium on price, to give Aussies covered by a Union, in their jobs. Amazon doesn’t do Unions.

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