Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission in the latest Essential poll, which finds Labor maintaining its big lead on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead unchanged at 54-46. Beyond that, I’m a bit tied up at this point to discuss the attitudinal results (chief among which is 64% support for a royal commission into banking), but they are as ever summarised in The Guardian, and will be available in complete form when the full report is published later today, together with the primary vote numbers. I believe we should also have YouGov along later today.

UPDATE. YouGov/Fifty Acres: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll has Labor’s lead out to a new high of 53-47, but this is due to preferences rather than primary votes: Labor and the Coalition are now tied on 32% of the primary vote, after Labor led 34% to 31% last time, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens down a point to 10%. There is also a preferred prime minister question recording a 31% tie, with Malcolm Turnbull rated strong by 21%, weak by 41$ and neither by 30%.

The poll records an interestingly high level of support for constitutional change allowing dual citizens to run for office, with 46% in favour and 40% opposed. Also featured are national approval ratings for the Bennelong by-election candidates, both of whom do very well on both name recognition and personal support (40% favourable of John Alexander and 28% unfavourable; 39% and 29% for Kristina Keneally). Forty-six per cent support new religious protection laws in same sex marriage legislation, with 36% opposed; 55% say the government has a responsibility for the safety of asylum seekers on Manus Island, with 36% for the contrary. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1034.

The full Essential Research report has the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 36%, Labor steady on 38%, the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. Sixty-four per cent of respondents favoured a banking royal commission, with only 12% opposed. Questions on the economy produced a mixed bag: 33% rate its state as good with 24% for poor, but 39% think it headed on the wrong direction compared with 31% for right. A question about economic issues of concern finds the highest ratings for anything to do with prices, particularly energy prices, and lesser but still substantial concern about income tax and interest rates. Forty-nine per cent supported incentives and subsidies to speed the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, 16% leaving it to the market, and 12% who wanted intervention to slow the process.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

939 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. emlafudd: @GreenupGary @michaelhallida4 @daveyk317 so as another twt mate said… So Sam rings the Chinese guy to set up a meeting to tell him he’s being monitored…. I know @samdastyari isnt that stupid… Absolutely ridiculous @billshortenmp I’d sue the pricks if it was me

  2. Bevan Shields‏Verified account @BevanShields · 22m22 minutes ago

    Have just had it confirmed from her office: cabinet minister Michaelia Cash abstained from voting #auspol #marriageequality

  3. The ABC report has a stupid headline “put tech giants above the law” – it does nothing of the sort – but is otherwise a sober report.

    It’s nowhere near as scary as the ridiculous hype posted above would have it.

    I’d probably agree that having the power to temporarily suspend laws is too broad. If they have some specific areas of the law, fine, work out how to draw some sort of reasonable boundary.

    But anyway, the SA Law society “expressed concerns” and suggested “a better approach”.

    Rau points out:

    “A declaration can only be made if it is in the public interest and even then only for a limited time, and any declaration can be disallowed by either house of Parliament,” he said.

    So, yeah, maybe not an ideal approach to take, but hardly the end of civilization (or “putting tech giants above the law”).

  4. Tony_Burke: I made an election commitment to vote yes. I’ll be keeping my word. My community needs someone who will fight discrimination. I won’t pick and choose and pretend racial discrimination is unacceptable but other discrimination is ok. #auspol twitter.com/whistleblower0…

    whistleblower08: @Tony_Burke Parliament’s home page states Members are elected for a 3yr term & when in parliament take part in debate on proposed laws & public policy, representing the views of the people in their electorate. 69.9% of them voted No & you plan on representing them with a Yes?

  5. political_alert: ‘Government’s reason for cancelling Parliament blown out of water’, says @Tony_Burke #auspol pic.twitter.com/MEUnRBVROG

  6. So completely disallowable by either house.

    Like I said, perhaps not the best way of going about it, but hardly putting anyone above the law.

    Hyperbole is best left for the pursuit of humour.

  7. Great, so bishop also confirms that Huang is being monitored by Aust and the USA, the yanks must be shaking their heads in despair.

    Ms Bishop on Wednesday said Senator Dastyari must publicly reveal “each and every discussion he had with his Chinese benefactor”, accusing him of “actively seeking to thwart” a potential intelligence investigation.

  8. I’m surprised this Weatherill grab hasn’t also attracted the ire of the Convict States. I’m still not sure how the legislation can force a NSW farmer (for eg) to give evidence at a RC in SA.

    “PREMIER Jay Weatherill has put forward new legislation he says would ensure a royal commissioner could compel interstate witnesses to co-operate with an inquiry on the River Murray.”

    http://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/river-murray-royal-commissioner-gets-powers-to-compel-interstate-witnesses-to-cooperate/news-story/87a278dee1f95d3e2bed42756563d45a

  9. SSM will become law next month thanks to Turnbull.
    The process was protracted and ugly. The outcome was beautiful.
    Rudd and Gillard could have so moved. But they did not. Shorten opposed the public vote. Most on this site opposed Turnbulls decision and portrayed him as weak, as did many in his own Party.
    History will record it as it should – a monumental Turnbull achievement.

  10. Dio
    I’m surprised this Weatherill grab hasn’t also attracted the ire of the Convict States. I’m still not sure how the legislation can force a NSW farmer (for eg) to give evidence at a RC in SA.

    I dont think he can, allowing states to compel witnesses from other states could lead to tit for tat RCs by states against each other, but shellbell or someone else would be able to answer it better.

  11. @ Al Pal – the survey was to decide whether the Coalition frontbench were entitled to a conscience vote, like Labor had been for quite some time.

    Neither Rudd, nor Gillard had the power to call a survey to change Coalition party policy. That power is beyond any Prime Minister.

  12. Dio,

    Probably because:
    a) how likely to be effective is it really?, and/or
    b) the bastards that have been breaking the law deserve to be done over rather than protected by Barnaby and his crooked mates.

  13. History will record it as it should – a monumental Turnbull achievement.

    Never mind how many became distressed and were hurt by the conversation and the attacks by the No supporters. Turnbull swaggers on.

  14. Al Pal………….like Howard is remembered for the gun laws, you could be right about Turnbull……….then who remembers all the apology stuff from Rudd? I would think the electorate, fickle beast that it is, well merely view Turnbull as a huge disappointment – a weak leader who is incapable of facing off against his own side. He will rank along with the likes of Bill McMahon, Snedden and others as totally out of their depth when it comes to the brutality of trying to lead the conservative side of politics.

  15. AL Pal

    It took a decade of work for discrimination introduced by Howard to be removed.

    The LNP fought it all the way after HOWARD introduced it.

    Overriding yet again the democratic will of an elected parliament in a Territory. This time the ACT

    Spinless Turnbull could not even have the House sitting to get it passed today.
    Instead its more delay after the interminable wait for dscrimination to be removed with another week of hate to come from the likes of the ACL

    Don’t worry the LGBTI community has no doubt the LNP is the party of discrimination. Apparently teaching Noel Pearson along the way.

  16. Diogenes

    I reckon there will be any number of NSW farmers happy to talk to the SA Royal Commission.

    They will be the ones doing the right thing with water allocations while the big corporate irrigators please themselves.

    Sure the lawyers will do anything to avoid the alleged thieves having to show up but as I said on day one, that will not be a good look.

    The RC may have some elements of a stunt by Weatherill but it could be a good stunt.

  17. Hey @TurnbullMalcolm, remember @AndrewRobbAO ? “One of those businessmen was property developer Huang Xiangmo, who along with associates donated $50,000 to Mr Robb’s campaign financing vehicle, the Bayside Forum, on the day the Free Trade Agreement was signed in 2014.”#auspol— MarkJacka (@themarkjacka) November 29, 2017

    50k for a FTA, what did the 40k buy

  18. The Libs’ attitude to any small indiscretion of Labor reminds me of this.

    Matthew 7:5 KJV: Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother’s eye.

  19. Dan Gulberry @ #880 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 3:02 pm

    Hmmm.

    Hey @TurnbullMalcolm, remember @AndrewRobbAO ? "One of those businessmen was property developer Huang Xiangmo, who along with associates donated $50,000 to Mr Robb's campaign financing vehicle, the Bayside Forum, on the day the Free Trade Agreement was signed in 2014."#auspol— MarkJacka (@themarkjacka) November 29, 2017

    Of course some person, commonly referred to as a journalist is sure to pick on this and even other more obvious questions.

  20. Rex Douglas @ #885 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 2:23 pm

    Bill Shorten’s failure to ask for Dastyari’s resignation again shows that he is unfit to be ALP leader, let alone PM.

    Why, exactly?

    Being able to correctly identify when a phone is being bugged seems like a useful skill.

    The real wrongdoers are the people who were bugging the phone to begin with. And also the people who leaked the wiretap records to the media for political gain.

  21. never mind Rex, there’s still time for Shorten to try and bring down a democratically elected government with a fake email- then you would be able welcome him with open arms as PM like you did Turnbull

  22. Greens save the day again. What bloody use is a commission if it doesn’t look at everything.

    The Greens have thrown their weight behind a commission of inquiry into the baking and financials services sector after securing last minute amendments from Nationals senator Barry O’Sullivan.

    The inquiry will now also examine executive remuneration, the “too big too fail” taxpayer guarantee, and be broadened beyond its Nationals focus on rural business concerns.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-throw-support-behind-nationals-bank-inquiry-20171129-gzuzy3.html

  23. Having now read the original Fairfax story on Dastyari, it seems clear that national security information may well have been released, but not by Dastyari – but rather, by the anonymous sources who’ve briefed Fairfax.

    Dastyari passed on some Canberra scuttlebutt, but these sources appear to have compromised actual sources and methods. Huang can’t have been sure he was being surveilled after talking to Dastyari, but after reading these leaks he sure does.

  24. Rational Leftist @ #517 Tuesday, November 28th, 2017 – 6:34 pm

    Ugh! Already election ads on the TV for the state election here (SA).

    Keep your pants on! It’s not until March! Can we at least get through Christmas first?

    Nope. Labor have learned their lesson about campaigning. Campaign early, campaign hard and don’t lift your boot off the throats of the L/NP.

  25. ‘Trog Sorrenson says:
    Wednesday, November 29, 2017 at 3:34 pm

    Greens save the day again. What bloody use is a commission if it doesn’t look at everything.

    The Greens have thrown their weight behind a commission of inquiry into the baking and financials services sector after securing last minute amendments from Nationals senator Barry O’Sullivan. ‘

    It is good to see the Greens Party Government and Prime Minister Di Natale riding to the rescue again.

    But why all the fuss about the baking industry?

  26. “The Greens have thrown their weight behind a commission of inquiry into the baking and financials services sector”

    Making sure they aren’t coincidentally ‘too busy’ when asked to make wedding cakes with same sex couples as the cake topper.

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