Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission in the latest Essential poll, which finds Labor maintaining its big lead on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead unchanged at 54-46. Beyond that, I’m a bit tied up at this point to discuss the attitudinal results (chief among which is 64% support for a royal commission into banking), but they are as ever summarised in The Guardian, and will be available in complete form when the full report is published later today, together with the primary vote numbers. I believe we should also have YouGov along later today.

UPDATE. YouGov/Fifty Acres: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll has Labor’s lead out to a new high of 53-47, but this is due to preferences rather than primary votes: Labor and the Coalition are now tied on 32% of the primary vote, after Labor led 34% to 31% last time, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens down a point to 10%. There is also a preferred prime minister question recording a 31% tie, with Malcolm Turnbull rated strong by 21%, weak by 41$ and neither by 30%.

The poll records an interestingly high level of support for constitutional change allowing dual citizens to run for office, with 46% in favour and 40% opposed. Also featured are national approval ratings for the Bennelong by-election candidates, both of whom do very well on both name recognition and personal support (40% favourable of John Alexander and 28% unfavourable; 39% and 29% for Kristina Keneally). Forty-six per cent support new religious protection laws in same sex marriage legislation, with 36% opposed; 55% say the government has a responsibility for the safety of asylum seekers on Manus Island, with 36% for the contrary. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1034.

The full Essential Research report has the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 36%, Labor steady on 38%, the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. Sixty-four per cent of respondents favoured a banking royal commission, with only 12% opposed. Questions on the economy produced a mixed bag: 33% rate its state as good with 24% for poor, but 39% think it headed on the wrong direction compared with 31% for right. A question about economic issues of concern finds the highest ratings for anything to do with prices, particularly energy prices, and lesser but still substantial concern about income tax and interest rates. Forty-nine per cent supported incentives and subsidies to speed the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, 16% leaving it to the market, and 12% who wanted intervention to slow the process.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

939 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. paulkidd: This is fundamentally true. @GreensMPs have led on this issue from the day in 2004 Michael Organ tried to stop the Howard government amendments. Thanks Greens…

  2. Sarah Huckabee Sanders Just Disgraced Herself With A Single Tweet

    Sarah Huckabee Sanders used her official capacity as the White House Press Secretary to celebrate CNN’s boycott of the White House Christmas party.

    In response to the news that CNN won’t be attending the White House Christmas party, Huckabee Sanders tweeted:

    Sarah Sanders @PressSec

    Christmas comes early! Finally, good news from @CNN.

    Sanders is Trump’s Baghdad Bob. She is the lying propagandist who stands in front of the cameras daily to misinform the American people. Sarah Huckabee Sanders has never shown anything but contempt for objective or media that is willing to be critical of this administration.

    Her job is to answer questions from the press, not openly cheer for the demise of a key component of the free press.

  3. ‘He’s a bigot and he’s governing like a bigot’: Princeton professor spells out the truth behind Trump’s ‘Pocahontas’ slur

    MSNBC analyst and professor of Religion and African American Studies at Princeton University Eddie Glaude Jr. on Tuesday bluntly reacted to Donald Trump’s racial attack on Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), repeatedly calling the president a “bigot” who is “appealing to bigots in this country.”

  4. ‘He creates his own reality’: Trump telling friends Mueller’s probe will conclude by year’s end

    Donald Trump has been telling friends that special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into his campaign’s collusion with Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign will conclude by the end of the year, the Washington Post reports.

    “This investigation’s going to be over with pretty soon,” Trump’s told friends at his Golf Club and Mar-a-Lago, adding his “brilliant” lawyers have assured him of a rapid conclusion to Mueller’s probe.

  5. Josh Taylor‏Verified account @joshgnosis · 3h3 hours ago

    There’s no other way to put it except those on the “no” side watching their amendments getting voted down are in full tantrum mode in the Senate.

  6. billshortenmp: The people said Yes.

    The Senate said Yes.

    Now it’s time for the House of Reps to finally do its job and make marriage equality a reality.

    Let’s get this done.

  7. workmanalice: VOTING NO
    Concetta Fierravanti-Wells
    Eric Abetz
    Matt Canavan
    John Williams
    Lucy Gichuhi
    Helen Polley
    Chris Ketter
    Slade Brockman
    Cory Bernardi
    Barry O’Sullivan
    Brian Burston
    Fraser Anning

    Pauline Hanson
    Peter Georgiou

    Bridget McKenzie is abstaining

  8. Penny Wong’s speech to the Senate, in full:

    Here is Penny Wong’s speech in full:

    This day has been a long time coming, a day for which many of us have worked in our parties, a day for which many in the Australian community have worked, a day many of us have hoped for. It was not long ago in this country that gay and lesbian Australians were targeted by the criminal law for who they were.

    It wasn’t that long ago. It was legal to discriminate us simply for who we are. But equality is a remarkably persistent principle. It is a defining principle. A principle that springs from the simple and powerful precept of the inherent dignity of every individual. Of every human being. And so it has been through human history. The aspiration for equality is the hallmark of our progress. So, today, we stand on the cusp of a remarkable achievement and an historic event, and we pause briefly to reflect just for a moment of what we are a part. We are a part of an act of acceptance, an act of inclusion, an act of respect, an act of celebration, a day when this Senate declares our acceptance of our LGBTIQ brothers and our sisters.

    The bill that passed in this chamber was negotiated across party lines. It reflects an appropriate balance between delivering marriage equality and the protection of religious freedom. Mr President, as the Australian people voted to lessen discrimination, not to extend it, and we, the Senate, have respected that vote by rejecting amendments which sought to extend discrimination, or derail marriage equality, through debates which are better had elsewhere. I acknowledge the senators who have participated in this debate, which for most part has been respectful.

    It is disappointing the House won’t be able to progress this until next week, but I do hope when it does so, it follows the example set by this chamber and ensures this parliament delivers on the promise to the Australian people and legislates for marriage equality.

    Mr President, laws matter. They endow rights. But they do more than this. They express our values, who we are and what we believe as a nation. I am often asked what this law means for me and my family. This law matters to loving couples across the country, but what is more important is what it means for all of us. What it says to young LGBTIQ Australians, what it says to the young man struggling with who he is, or the young woman who feels alone and ashamed, what it says to the children of same-sex couples who feel ostracised. It says to so many Australians, this parliament, this country, accept you for who you are. Your love is not lesser, and nor are you. It says you’re one of us.

    This day would not have come without the courage and dedication of all who have campaigned, and it would not have come without the decision of the Australian people to vote yes. And in that vote, the grace and decency of our countrymen and women shone through. And in voting yes they pushed our parliament to do what should be done. We may be their representatives, but in this, they have been our leaders. Every day, it is a great privilege to stand in this place, but there are some days which change our country for the better. This is such a day.”

  9. marq_au: An old meme from the @CFMEU but still true today. The Senate has passed #SSM but @TurnbullMalcolm has run away from the Reps.

  10. Hello bludgers. A great day all with ME passing the Senate. Of course, this only underlines the cynical nature of Turnbull delaying the House sitting. His own excuse is now biting him.

  11. Shame on Jay Weatherill trying to sneak this abomination through:

    This is urgent: we’ve just heard that the South Australian Government is trying to rush through a Bill which would give tech companies like Uber and Amazon the ability to bypass any state law they choose.

    This unprecedented Bill would give powerful tech companies the ability to override anti-discrimination laws, worker’s compensation, environmental protections and occupational health and safety standards, all with just a penstroke from the Minister.

    Right now only a few lone voices are standing up to this grossly undemocratic Bill and the Government is hoping it can ram it through this week before Parliament dissolves for the summer.

    The Law Society of South Australia has condemned the Bill stating that the powers it grants are far too broad, lacking in any appropriate safeguards and could have far-reaching unintended consequences.

    What’s more, if South Australia succeeds in passing this Bill then it could trigger an arms race as corporations pressure other states to match – or beat – South Australia’s huge free kick to tech companies.

    So far the Government has only gotten away with so little scrutiny on its plans by burying it in a flurry of end-of-year legislation. They’re hoping no-one will notice.

    That’s why we need to take a stand and make it a big one.

    Sadly, we know all too well what happens when corporations get too much power.

    That’s why thousands of SumOfUs members like you stand up to powerful companies like Nestlé, Uber and Adani every day. And when we take action together, we win.

    Please add your voice now and stop this dangerous Bill before it becomes law.

    Sign the petition demanding this “law” be tossed out:

  12. C@tmomma:
    So these two guttoed out:

    Pauline Hanson
    Peter Georgiou

    Hanson said she supported SSM but she had objections to the bill so she abstained.

  13. Why does Wetherill want to do that!?! Don’t his political antennae tell him that people in general have had enough of the Tech behemoth companies? Only this morning there was that article about Big Tech is the new Big Tobacco.

  14. Some fine research into Don Bourke has been done. This one is a doozy from his book, ‘The Lazy Gardener’:

    Burke’s own publications were not the most appropriate tomes for an “ambassador” against domestic violence.

    In chapter six of his book The Lazy Gardener, Burke joked about assaulting women.

    “A woman, a dog, a walnut tree. The more you beat them, the better they be,” it reads.

    Burke describes it as the “greatest of all English truisms”.


  15. When your party is riven in two over what is supposed to be on of your singular achievements Gosford is as good a place as most to hide.

    Brian Trumble – even when he wins he loses.

  16. C@t, all we have is one statement from one ginger group that I have never heard of. I very much doubt SA government is proposing anything anywhere near as bad as the hyperbole above.

    It might not be great legislation, but that stuff above has all the hallmarks of outrage machine clickbait. Smells just like one of those bogus ‘look how much more money refugees get than wounded soldiers’ memes.

  17. ratsak @ #840 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 11:06 am

    C@t, all we have is one statement from one ginger group that I have never heard of.

    SumOfUs is not a “ginger group” whatever the hell that means. Just because you’ve never heard of them doesn’t mean they don’t exist. They have been campaigning against all sorts of malfeasance for quite a while.

    Read more about them on their homepage, or bury your head in the sand. Your choice.

  18. Steve777
    So this latest Dastyari stuff just looks like raking over old coals – a distraction for a Government in desperate need of one.

    Very much so. It would not be a surprise to anyone that the USA and Australia were bugging Huang especially given the concerns expressed by the head of ASIO last September (2016).

    What is surprising is that brandis has effectively confirmed it, countries dont usually confirm they spy on each others diplomats and private citizens. Tho bishop did previously confirm that Aust uses fake passports so lnp has form in disclosing such stuff.

    Plenty of news reports of Aust business people advised to take throw away phones and expect their every move to be monitored in China as happens with any government visits. Also suitable outrage from China govt and media that they would do such a thing.

    SMH article also notes that ASIO was assessing Huangs citizenship application early last year.

    SMH article does appear a bit one sided in that it mentions ASIO spoke to labor when ABC article from last September notes ASIO spoke to all parties. SMH also says that turnbull is proposing new laws to counter foreign intervention not noting that labor had called for such laws in September last year.

  19. Labor’s Doug Cameron is up next and he asks about prime minister Malcolm Turnbull dining with a Chinese donor after he gave $40,000 to the Queensland LNP.

    Brandis says he is not familiar with those reports.

    A stock answer.

  20. ratsak
    When your party is riven in two over what is supposed to be on of your singular achievements Gosford is as good a place as most to hide.

    I thought that Marriage Equality was a private members bill, not a government bill, how can brandis claim it as a government bill?

  21. YaThinkN: So the Minister for Women doesn’t give a rats about a woman’s right to choose to have an abortion, nor choose a woman as their wedded bride.
    Good to know.
    Exactly what sort of woman does Ms Cash think she represents?
    It is certainly not the majority.…

  22. zoomster @ #846 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 2:14 pm

    This appears to be the SA legislation in question:

    — basically means that Uber drivers will have to follow the same rules as existing taxi drivers.

    So are the people behind that petition a Greens Party front?

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