Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

Bill Shorten almost matches Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, as the Coalition cops its worst Newspoll result since February.

Newspoll breaks out of its long-established 53-47 to 54-46 rut by recording Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 54-46 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 38%, the Coalition down one to 34%, One Nation is up one to 10% and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull suffers a body blow on personal ratings, down two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 58%, and his lead on preferred prime minister all but disappears, now at 36-34 compared with 41-33 last time. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 53%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1625. Full report from The Australian.

UPDATE: The poll also finds Julie Bishop clearly favoured over Malcolm Turnbull to lead the Liberal Party, by 40% to 27%. Peter Dutton on 11%, being most favoured by One Nation voters on 24%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

860 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  3. Why is it fraud? If I’m up front about the fact that my renunciation papers are in the works, but I just want a passport until they are processed, I’m not trying to deceive anyone. The UK authorities can refuse my request, but that would mean I don’t have the “rights and privileges” any more.

  6. Toby Esterhase @ #443 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 1:34 pm

    Windhover,
    No, Hanks QC’s argument isn’t “clever”. It’s correct. You get points for trying to parse [72] of Re Canavan as you have (everyone else banging this drum conveniently ignores it). But it just doesn’t work: you don’t read and apply case law like it’s legislation.
    No High Court is going to give a foreign government’s bureaucracy the ability to effectively prevent a candidate from standing for election simply by dragging its heels in processing their application for renunciation. And no High Court’s going touch with a barge pole the question of how far in advance of the deadline for nominations you have to make the application: any definitive answer to that question would be purely arbitrary.

    Very good analysis.

  9. That’s my position CTar,

    I’ve put my amateur’s case, others have put theirs. I’m happy for mine to rest.

    If and when it gets to the HC we’ll dissect the submissions and the judgment.

    Then life will go on.

  10. I hope Jacqui can find a nice Tartan outfit for the resignation announcement.

    Has the simulations guy confirmed with her and Parry out the McKim issue doesn’t arise and it’s Lib and PHON who come in, or does Lambie really throw a spanner in the works?

  15. Ratsak

    Antony Green said (probably on Bowland’s simulations) that Parry and Lambie out will elect Nick McKim.

    No Parry unelects McKim.

  24. stephendziedzic: Senate #qt begins – no sign of Pauline Hanson, Fraser Anning or any One Nation Senators. No Senator Lambie either

  26. Ratsak

    Believe Lambies number two gets elected (current mayor of Davenport). Id wager there was enought ATL votes to carry. Plus its treated as though Lambies spot was occupied him.

  29. “Is Lambie’s replacement not going to get lose his spot for holding an office for profit under the crown (Mayor)?”

    Most common view is that council positions aren’t an office of profit, but that’s not unanimously held.

  31. VE
    I believe local government is not counted as an office for profit under the crown, as local government is not in the constitution.

  33. Local government is an organ of state constitutions … therefore not generally considered in the pay of the Commonwealth (unlike if someone were a Cth public servant or say… an appointee on a Cth statutory body).

  34. Kevin Bonham on twitter says Lambie’s number two help mayorship at election. Wagers its about time the offive of profit and local govt got tested.

  37. Ides of March says:
    Monday, November 13, 2017 at 2:07 pm

    GT, RM

    I always forget the senate does QT.

    They have dixer’s as well. 🙂

  38. Still waiting for the ABC to mention something about Lambie. Is she the member Bernardi claimed new they were a dual citizen but wouldn’t name?

  41. michaelkoziol: Nick McKim asking George Brandis about the ongoing situation on Manus.
    Brandis: “If there is a problem with Manus Island, don’t look to my side of politics.” #auspol #QT

  43. Molan was appointed by Abbott as a special adviser for Operation Sovereign Borders. He is aiming for a Senate spot now (championed by Abbott)..

  45. It will probably be one dealt with like the question of Hughes. Single justice to consider and tick or throw it up to the full bench.

    As with Bartlett I’d guess it won’t be judged an office of profit. But a single justice might not want to take that one on their own.

  46. gt

    Brandis: “If there is a problem with Manus Island, don’t look to my side of politics.” #auspol #QT

    Is Brandis saying it’s not the Lib ‘moderates’ doing it and blaming the ‘nutters’?

    😀

  47. Stephen Dziedzic‏ @stephendziedzic · 45s46 seconds ago

    Brandis visibly angry about the accusation of torture. @NickMcKim is not backing down. Both sides are furious. Brandis – ‘you went to Manus Island to forment violence!’ #senateqt

  48. Do any Queenslanders know what faction these 2 LNP MPs are?

    John McVeigh – Groom (previous State MP)
    Andrew Wallace – Fisher (?)

    I have the Moderate – Conservative split in Liberals at approximately 42-39, plus these two.

    If both are conservatives, and without Alexander, the split would be 41-41.

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