BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

Little change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, nor in the latest polls on same-sex marriage, which continue to show an emphatic margin in favour of “yes”.

Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, YouGov and Essential, have done precisely nothing to BludgerTrack’s two-party preferred trend reading, and next to nothing on the primary vote. The seat projection is likewise unchanged, although the Coalition is down one in Victoria and up one in Queensland. There’s a bit more excitement on the leadership ratings, following a poor set of numbers for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll. Full results can be found on the sidebar, where they belong.

Other poll news:

• A further finding from this week’s Newspoll tells a familiar story in relation to same-sex marriage, with yes leading 59% to 35%, out from 56% to 37% a fortnight ago. Of those who have voted, the lead for yes was 62% to 35%. Seventy-six per cent report having voted, which sits very well indeed with the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ recent estimate of 77% as of Friday. A further 10% of Newspoll respondents said they would “definitely” vote, though one suspects a number of those are stretching the definition of “definitely”. Survey forms have to be with the ABS by Tuesday to be included in the count.

• BuzzFeed reports a Galaxy poll conducted for gay rights group PFLAG found 78% support for the proposition that same-sex couples should be “treated the same under the law compared with other couples” in the event of a yes vote in the survey, though I suspect some respondents were unsure what to make of the question.

• A poll on attitudes to indigenous constitutional recognition has been published by the Gilbert and Tobin Centre of Public Law at the University of New South Wales. Its main finding is that 71.7% would support recognition of the history and culture of indigenous peoples in the constitution, and 60.7% support a representative body to advise on issues affecting indigenous people. The poll was conducted by OmniPoll, a firm founded by (among others) former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,231 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  1. THANKS PeeBee and Confessions for your replies – I guess the ‘missing EDIT and REPLY buttons’ will come back as the site develops

  2. Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    Think about this. Papadopoulos was wearin’ a wire for Mueller, now Papa is public. It means Mueller got everything he needed from him

    Tea’s hearin’ multiple points of chatter that it’s gonna be a “Fun Friday!” Just sayin.

  3. phoenixRed….” …………….Mueller is investigating Donald Trump for everything under the sun.”…….

    And the Orange one knows he is in deep do do and it couldn’t happen to someone who absolutely deserves it.
    When you lie,trash talk,bully,insult,defameand threaten a whole lot of people for no other reason than they are a political opponent or disagree with your policies then they are going to fight back.
    The thing with Trump is it is all about him and money, that’s his whole persona and modis operandi.
    As with crooks who get caught out by their actions he hasn’t realised he is not as smart or clever as he think he is , and those he has treated with contempt are not as dumb as he thinks they are.

  4. victoria says:

    Tea Pain is on the money re papa being public means Mueller has what he needs from him.

    Bring on Fun Friday!!

    Hope springs eternal :

    Political Insider : Scott Dworkin‏Verified account @funder

    Welcome to what I believe is the last month of the Trump presidency. My guess is he resigns before Thanksgiving. As he should. #TrumpResign

  5. The man behind Mueller:

    Two decades later, Mr. Weissmann has turned his attention to a more prominent set of prospective conspirators: He is a top lieutenant to Robert S. Mueller III on the special counsel investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible links to the Trump campaign. Significantly, Mr. Weissmann is an expert in converting defendants into collaborators — with either tactical brilliance or overzealousness, depending on one’s perspective.

    It is not clear if President Trump and his charges fear Mr. Weissmann as they gird for the slog ahead. It is quite clear, former colleagues and opponents say, that they should.

    Continue reading the main story

    Former Trump Aides Charged as Prosecutors Reveal New Campaign Ties With Russia OCT. 30, 2017

    With a Picked Lock and a Threatened Indictment, Mueller’s Inquiry Sets a Tone SEPT. 18, 2017

    Trump Aides, Seeking Leverage, Investigate Mueller’s Investigators JULY 20, 2017
    “I’m no fan of Donald Trump,” said Dan Cogdell, a Houston defense lawyer who tangled with Mr. Weissmann when Mr. Weissmann helped lead the federal task force investigating Enron in the early 2000s. “Frankly, I can’t think of two people who deserve each other more than Andrew Weissmann and Donald Trump.”

    If Mr. Mueller is the stern-eyed public face of the investigation, Mr. Weissmann, 59, is its pounding heart, a bookish, legal pit bull with two Ivy League degrees, a weakness for gin martinis and classical music and a list of past enemies that includes professional killers and white-collar criminals.

  6. PhoenixRed

    If Trump resigns, his only card re pardoning himself and others goes out the window. So my view is that he will only resign if it is in his interests to do so

  7. sonar says: Thursday, November 2, 2017 at 10:50 am

    As with crooks who get caught out by their actions he hasn’t realised he is not as smart or clever as he think he is , and those he has treated with contempt are not as dumb as he thinks they are.


    As Victoria said a little while back that Trump was living a unrestricted life of money and sloth and then he got greedy …… and was ego driven to want to be President – and so open himself and his racketeering to public scrutiny ……and it will more than likely be his undoing

  8. Trump-Russia probe ‘looks worse than yesterday’ after new revelations of Manafort activity: ex-FBI agent

    MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski have been suspicious of their old friend, President Donald Trump, and his relationship to Russia since last summer — and recent court filings shed new light on those links.

    The “Morning Joe” co-hosts have wondered for months why Trump, as a Republican candidate and now as president, refuses to even tepidly criticize Russia or its autocratic president, Vladimir Putin, but now they know why. Why are you hiring people — and they were, i don’t know few thought about this, but while we were hammering them on those questions, they were saying, ‘Oh, I don’t know what you’re talking about.’ They were meeting with the Russians!”

    A new, 17-page court filing shows Manafort used at least three passports to travel the world under an assumed name, and former FBI agent Clint Watts said the alleged money-launderer would have been an easy mark for Russian spies.

    “I think this case looks much worse (Wednesday) than it did yesterday,” Watts said. “For the Russian foreign intelligence, they must look at Manafort and just be licking their lips. This is a person that has multiple avenues in which you can compromise him. There is so much money moving through foreign countries and through his checking account. This is a great opportunity if you want to actually influence a campaign.”

  9. William..

    Congratulations on your new adventure ..I’m looking forward to tagging alone for the ride & have signed up with a small monthly contribution (wish I could afford more, but..)

    All the best 🙂

  10. William, I’m taking it that you are in fact administering this wordpress installation yourself and are thus free to tinker as user demands undoubtedly flow in? 😛

  11. William,

    The clean and mean look and functionality is good. Thanks muchly.

    My wish list is short –

    – It would be ‘nice’ to have the equivalent of the square brackets to shortcut the ‘blockquote’ stuff;

    – The thread specific comment numbers were also a ‘nice’ feature but I guess only functional on some platforms so that makes them problematical – it’s not much use if I refer to ‘Comment 391’ if Don can’t see comment numbers on his Apple computer and browser. I’ll cope with copying the date and time instead.

    The same with ‘edit’ features – just ‘drafting, reading/editing and before posting’ works for me because otherwise a comment says one thing one moment and something different the next. Way too messy.

    You’ve allowed the posting of pictures now and that’s good, I think.

    Some indication of what HTML is permitted in a ‘box’ on the upper right as you had before (including also how to use the ‘Blockquote’ shortcut if we get one) would be worthwhile.



  12. Hi BK

    thanks for Dawn patrol linked via poroti this morning!!

    Meanwhile. In a nutshell!

    Replying to @drussdamonk
    Money. Fame. It was well planned. Most of Snowden’s dumped docs had 0 to do with “domestic spying”— or his claimed justification.
    Russia’s election op essentially began w/the #SnowdenOp. RU needed USIC hobbled to succeed— using the left to harm the left later in ‘16.

  13. Oops and this

    Russia’s op wasn’t a one-shot deal. They were looking to generationally destroy democracy.

    Think about that.
    Julia Davis
    Some of the Russian troll farm ads released by the House Intelligence Committee targeted teens as young as 13.


  14. booleanbach

    Speaking of Manafort, the word is that Rudy Guiliani is somehow tied up with this person. Will be interesting to see what is revealed

  15. Page-load times seem significantly improved over the previous environment. The underlying platform (WordPress) hasn’t been changed, so the improvement must be down to either:

    1. Better hosting/hardware capacity
    2. Other custom scripts/add-ons that Crikey was running on their instance

    Whichever thing it is, the new environment is a big improvement over the previous one.

  16. Re: the SSM survey.

    Place your bets now on the first conservative pollie/columnist to run the line “fewer than 50% of Australians voted yes /the majority of Australians did not support SSM” after the results come in if the yes vote is less than the ~65% ‘yes’ votes x 77% participation rate (or 63% x 80% if the final vote is higher) needed to get a total of >50% of all eligible voters?

    My money is on Abbott, but It’ll be on very short odds. He will probably say it before the final count.

    The other front runners will be Bernardi, Erica Betz, and the other troglodytes.

    They will claim a ‘silent majority’ who voted no or decided not to vote. (and a related and interesting factoid – the Vic government recently did a survey and found on 7% or Victoria do not think climate change is occurring, but this 7% overwhelmingly believe that about 50% or more of people agree with them. In other words they think they are the ‘silent majority’ and their social group must be an echo chamber for these beliefs – I suspect it is old people who listen to Alan Jones and read Bolt/murdmuck media and don’t get out much).

    It will be interesting to see how Turnbull plays the issue after the survey results come in – will he try to bask in the glory of a progressive outcome or will be remain too shit scared to stand up to the loons. I suspect the government will try to put up a very conservative bill that will be rejected by labor and the greens so they can blame them for not passing it.

  17. I meant to add along with my, I hope, modest wish list that I also hope that regular Bludgers, both commentors and lurkers, who can, like me, afford to make a small continuing payment to defray your costs in providing the Blog.

    I value the opportunity to not only gain a little knowledge of how the various polls work, but to see the views of others on current political events regardless of whether I agree with them or not, and enjoy the occasional straying far away from polls and politics.

    It’s an interesting community of commentors in that virtually anything you don’t understand, no matter what it is, you can mention it on here and almost always there’ll be someone with some knowledge of the subject and often people with some real expertise on it!

  18. boolean

    How do you get three (3!) US passports each with a different number??

    I wondered about that as well. Also he seems to have been making a new application each year.

  19. Of course he has. Expect nothing less from Trump’s sycophant

    Sean Hannity
    I have a powerful monologue that you don’t want to miss… We will expose Robert Mueller’s corrupt special counsel next #Hannity

  20. Yes. I’m happy to make a contribution as well.

    I’ll probably make an suitable annual payment and get it over and done with.

    Would be nice to get those little extra features back that Musrum A R & Teh helped with as the new board settles in etc.

  21. Trump Has Officially Become A National Joke As 72% Of America Is Embarrassed By His Behavior

    The fact that so many Americans have written off a president before he’s even been in office for a full year turned would be surprising in the pre-Trump era.

    According to a new poll, nearly three-quarters of America is embarrassed by the president’s behavior since taking office.

    In a CBS News poll released Wednesday, 72 percent of respondents said they “dislike the way Trump personally conducts himself as president.”

    Aside from his usual childish Twitter behavior, the highlights of past few weeks include Trump’s inability to make a condolence call to a Gold Star widow, his subsequent lies about that call and his ongoing feud with said widow, four straight weekends of golf, and the explosive charges now faced by three former Trump campaign associates.

    Trump has done his best to divide this country at every turn since he’s been a political figure. Most of the time, he is successful in doing that.

    But it turns out that a wide majority of Americans do agree on one thing: Donald Trump does not conduct himself like a president should.

  22. @a r, The biggest improvement is the control William now has on the direction of development of his blog, granted it’s still within the wordpress environment (which I am a little bit hostile against), but it’s a big step forward.
    Performance gains are a bonus, and to be expected when moving off the shared crikey environment.
    Looks to be a server in Melbourne.

    @William are you using netvirtue’s managed wordpress hosting (They appear to be in Sydney though), or ‘self managing’ your own VPS/dedicated server? They look to be decent if not on the pricier side, but options are pretty limited in Australia. I note they claim to have DDoS protection, would be interesting to see how they actually hold up during an attack.
    I’ve recently shifted to using OVH with their new Sydney datacenter.

  23. This is a timely article (not the first of its kind) in that I sincerely hope Australia’s strategic planners do not follow the US blindly, no matter how strongly it urges us, down the rabbit hole of more & more defence spending:

    I can see the US extending this playbook to The Philippines & Indonesia among others in our neighbourhood and it will not result in a peaceful backyard.

  24. Wondering if the slow performance on Crikey was due to the extensive advertising? WB I possibly don’t object to whatever advertising and pop ups etc you might feel necessary to support the site and I’m sure most readers won’t either. Not that you need our permission!

  25. William hello and good luck. I will be happy to make a contribution to the new PB.

    As for politics, two items of interest to SA bludgers.

    First, efforts to keep SA poor are not confined to the Federal Liberal Party:

    No doubt Steve Marshall will now criticise the State’s deficit!

    Second, why are hearings into alleged theft and misappropriation of valuable water allocations upstream of SA not open to ministerial input and public reporting of same??

  26. I saw a snippet of Cory Bernardi talking about Christopher Pyne where he said WTTE of “I knew him when he was seven and he was nasty then. And he’s gotten even worse since then!”.

  27. BK says:
    Thursday, November 2, 2017 at 2:10 pm

    I saw a snippet of Cory Bernardi talking about Christopher Pyne where he said WTTE of “I knew him when he was seven and he was nasty then. And he’s gotten even worse since then!”.

    Wall, podnah, dang me effn ah don’t see a correlation heah between pot and kettle.

    😎 😵

  28. BK

    From dim memory the term “particularly vicious/nasty dirt file” was mentioned in an article about Poodles and Cory’s then current feud. Cannot remember who was meant to have the file. Instinct says it is the sort of thing Pyne would curate with glee but I have a vague sense it was Cory and.

    Happy little vegemites in SA ,over the last week or so a couple of non flattering leaks about Pyne and his entitlement

  29. William
    Congrats. I’ve tried to donate a lump sum but when I try to put my credit card expiry date in, it simply won’t accept even though it’s 06/21. Buggered if I know how to get it to accept.

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