Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor bounces back in the Essential poll after a brief lull, as respondents mark the government down on the National Broadband Network.

Courtesy of The Guardian, this week’s Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead bouncing back to 54-46, after two weeks at 52-48. Primary votes will have to wait for later. The poll also has particularly interesting supplementary questions this week in relation to the National Broadband Network. Only 24% of respondents expressed support for the Coalition government’s fibre-to-the-node downgrade, compared with 43% who preferred Labor’s abandoned fibre-to-the-premises plan. The network’s failures are attributed to the government by 39%, compared with only 19% for Labor. Fifty-four per cent rated that the NBN would “fail to adequately meet Australia’s future internet requirements”, with 23% saying otherwise. However, 52% thought the NBN had improved their service (presumably where applicable), compared with only 17% who thought it worse and 28% about the same.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,175 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. This is how Gina wins.

    Mark Newton
    @NewtonMark

    Prediction: The Adani project will go ahead, but will go broke and fail. Gina Reinhardt will use the resulting free railway for her mines.

    Bec McLellan‏ @BecMcLellan · 17h17 hours ago

    Replying to @NewtonMark

    Amazingly, it’s being built in the same gauge as Gina’s existing railway infrastructure (and not the same gauge as the rest of Qld).

  2. Boerwar
    Aren’t you one of those people who are always ranting about how holding the leavers of power is worth any moral sacrifice that entails ? I swear you and many others mention it alot when frothing about the Greens.

  3. Another point worth pondering is how it is that President Trump chose as his campaign chair someone like Manafort whose reputation in the political world was less about his political brilliance than about his ties to Russia and Ukraine (including some of the most corrupt people there) and his general shadiness. It’s said that Jared Kushner was among those advocating to hire Manafort, so the obvious question is: Why?

    Maybe there simply wasn’t adequate vetting, even though news organizations quickly found problems that led to Manafort’s firing. But the inclination to hire someone so close to Moscow does raise questions about the Trump inner circle’s predilection to hire someone linked to Russia and Ukraine.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/30/opinion/paul-manafort-indictment-trump.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region&_r=0

  4. kylegriffin1: Schiff on MSNBC: Effectively, the Trump camp was made aware last April that the Russian Gov’t possessed thousands of stolen Clinton e-mails.

  5. victoria

    “Sally McManus head of ACTU spoke to the DT .”
    .
    Something is afoot if the DT spoke with her , what with Sally being them ‘evil unions’ capo di tutt’i capi . 🙂

  6. Its settled that votes before Barnaby knew he was ineligible are safe. That’s been decided. Votes after someone was known to potentially be ineligible might be worth challenging but the underlying logic behind the former (avoiding political uncertainty) means the odds are against (you’d have to successfully argue that the consequences of allowing such votes to hold are worse than not in terms of fundamental democratic or constitutial principles and you’d have to overcome that Parliament allowed them to continue to sit and vote in that time). I suppose someone probably should challenge just to put the issue to rest.

  7. I think the News Limited papers have really ramped up the Get Malcolm angle. Problem is there is no one who can really unite the right wing of the party and the middle ground of Australia.

  10. ‘fess,
    Trump could always pardon these three for their federal crimes. Of course there is the New York state investigation as well, which has been humming alongside the Mueller investigation.

    Max Boot adresses it in his NY Daily News article:

    This is how a prosecutor builds his case — and Mueller has assembled a team of the best prosecutors in the Department of Justice. There’s a good reason why, the day before the indictments were unsealed, Trump was having a meltdown on Twitter. Among his Sunday morning tweets was this desperate plea to his supporters: “DO SOMETHING!” This sounds like something that Al Pacino, as Tony Montana, might have said near the end of “Scarface” as he saw an army of gunmen invading his mansion.

    The only salvation for Trump now may be to try to fire Mueller and to issue blanket pardons to his campaign associates. That would be the legal equivalent of Tony Montana going down guns blazing. Or would it?

    If Trump were to use his authority as president to try to shut down the special counsel investigation, he would be guilty of obstruction of justice and should be impeached. But as a practical matter impeachment would only be possible if Democrats win a majority of the House next year and a number of Senate Republicans are willing to convict the president. Republicans, in other words, could soon be forced to choose whether they are loyal to the rule of law or the rule of Trump. I fear that by this point the “rule of law” caucus will constitute only a small minority of a once-proud party.

  11. E

    Ignorance is no excuse in law. So interesting to see if that flies when it comes to votes by an illegitimate government.

    The point is that Joyce did not do the reasonable steps needed to comply with signing the stat dec of being Aussie citizen.

    Do your homework applies here.

    Thus three month after eligibility applies. I think there is some clutching at straws by those defending the government.

    In every other area of law. Disqualification has consequences.

    So yes while outcome is uncertain there is definitely a case to be made about legislation being invalid even when unknown to Joyce by not doing his homework.

  12. @Elau

    Its settled that votes before Barnaby knew he was ineligible are safe. That’s been decided.

    Who settled it? Who decided it?

    It has never previously been decided by the HC, or any other court.

  14. White House Aides Privately Admit That Their Spin Is BS And Russia News Really Is That Bad

    White House aides are admitting that their own spin should not be believed and that the Manafort indictment and foreign policy adviser George Papadopolous flipping to cooperate with the FBI is very bad.

    If people who work in the White House weren’t terrified before, they are now. The Manafort indictment was expected for months, but the fact that the FBI arrested and flipped a Trump adviser should have anyone who worked with the Trump campaign or works in the White House currently, freaked out.

    There is no way to spin this. The fact that the White House is trying to distance Trump from both Manafort and Papadopolous is telling. The move from this is a nothing burger story to Trump wasn’t close to Manafort and Papadopolous is gigantic.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/30/white-house-aides-privately-admit-spin-bs-russia-news-bad.html

  16. C@t:

    It could still happen though. And I’ll believe Republicans are up for the task of impeachment when I see it actually unfolding.

  19. Confessions

    C@t:

    It could still happen though. And I’ll believe Republicans are up for the task of impeachment when I see it actually unfolding.

    ***********************

    It is still not sure, on this Day 1, how many Republicans are also in Robert Muellers sights – it has been suggested that Pence, Ryan, Sessions, McConnell ……. may have some explaining to do …..

  21. daretotread @ #81 Tuesday, October 31st, 2017 – 9:03 am

    Zoomster

    I admit ignorance to the minutiae of the specific charges etc because they are irrelevant. Similarly mush as i support Obamacare i do not follow the detail of the Republicans attempts to dismantle it. Nor do I follow the details of congressional races.

    What I look at is the bigger picture.

    What you and most on here are unable to even contemplate is that Trump still has strong support. As Kevin Rudd said on QA last night – he still has 80% support among Republican voters. That confirms a report I read yesterday which I have linked for your edification.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2017/10/29/why_republicans_remain_039trump_strong039_425054.html

    Now both these two comments come from people who dislike Trump. Rudd thinks he is nuts and the guy writing the article linked above cannot bear to watch him on TV.

    Try to read something other than the MSN which is group think triple plus. In particular read stuff from the inland not coastal states.

    Like it or not the USA is a federation and while there is no doubt that we in Australia are comfortable with the mainstreet views of the coastal yanks – California and New York, we just do not “get” the inland gun toters. Trouble is they vote.

    So many errors, apart from the spelling atrocities.
    One howler: “…the USA is a federation…”.
    Rubbish, it is a Union.

  23. dtt

    How much support Trump has is irrelevant. If he has broken the law, he should be held accountable.

    It doesn’t matter if every other member of Congress has broken exactly the same law, either (but it’s highly unlikely that they have, because the same processes which are currently operating for Trump’s administration would have kicked in by now).

    As I posted for your edification the other day, at the commencement of the Watergate investigations, Nixon’s support was stratospheric compared to Trump’s. Over the course of the investigation, he lost popularity. When he resigned in disgrace, he had the same levels of support Trump has now.

    Trump is starting off on a very low support base. Things can only get worse for him.

    I would be interested to know at what level of support you believe it would be OK to pursue Trump – can he be indicted if his level of support amongst Republicans declines to less than 70%, for example?

    As for the big picture, you’re the one who is ignoring in favour of using the prism of ‘I supported Trump’ to colour your vision.

  24. This from JOURNALIST Jenna Price is damning of of our ‘Main Stream Media’…

    “What I’m about to write will be of zero interest to other journalists – they all know it’s happening. But maybe you, too, should know how politicians try to control a story by giving it to their preferred outlets first or by talking to journalists who won’t challenge them. It’s not illegal but this control of the narrative gets in the way of voters knowing the facts. As we all saw last week, it can be hard to ignore the drama of a raid on a union headquarters, even if the raid later proves to be unnecessary.

    A “drop” to a preferred outlet also ensures that, because reporters turn the story over quickly, they are more likely to respond to the story as it is first told – although, to be fair, not this time. This time, we’re all writing about the abuse of process and how we were all misled by Cash’s statements in estimates last week. (And, shockingly, by comments her staff made to reporters. Actual lies to reporters asking where the media leak came from. Furious emails from someone at the Fair Work Ombudsman’s office trying to stop the stories.)”

    Political ‘journalists’ in this country actively collude with politicians to not just keep the facts/truth from us ..but to mis-represent the facts/truth in order to assist the promulgation of falsehoods which help those politicians to get away with their blatant lies. This in a representative democracy is totally unacceptable & it’s high time our senior political journos put their corrupt house in order..

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/awu-raid-wasnt-the-only-time-michaelia-cashs-office-manipulated-the-media-20171030-gzayyd.html

  25. Now we have the name of the ‘Professor’ in the UK who shopped the dirt from Hillary Clinton’s hacked emails to George Papadopoulos:

    Additionally, The Washington Post matched what appears to be an email from Papadopolous cited in the court papers with one described to the paper in August in which Papadopolous identified Mifsud as his contact. Back then, Mifsud said he had “absolutely no contact with the Russian government.” He reiterated that claim to The Daily Beast on Monday.

    Cornered rat denies knowing anythink! 🙂

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/professor-denies-evidence-he-shopped-kremlin-dirt-on-hillary-to-trump-campaign

    However, it’s also wise to consider the possibility that the republicans will play dirty over the Trump/Russia collusion. he is one of them and they don’t want to lose another President due to scandal. As this article outlines clearly that they are already laying the groundwork to fight that battle on:

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-on-houses-trump-russia-probe-not-that-interested-in-trump-or-russia?via=newsletter&source=DDMorning

  27. Trog

    Don’t know, not being a South Australian, but I wouldn’t have thought Xenophon joining in with the Coalition to trash his home state was a genius move.

  28. Markjs

    I know its not entirely practical. However I do think the Journalists code of ethics should have legislative backing not able to be amended by employers.

  30. stephendziedzic: Julie Bishop’s office has confirmed she won’t be meeting @jacindaardern in Sydney on Sunday – she’s in Perth meeting Singapore’s FM

  31. PHON is an irrelevance. The Nats fighting against recognition might make the vote struggle in Qld, but would have no effect anywhere else.

    If the Liberals, Labor, and Greens were all strongly campaigning for it and countering bullshit with clear statements that it’s only an advisory body not able to make laws being proposed you’d see a result like the SSM vote is expected to get.

    A strong Liberal PM would pull the Nationals into line on this issue anyway (to at least run dead).

    Trumble is such a failure he preemptively capitulates.

  33. ‘If Trump were to use his authority as president to try to shut down the special counsel investigation, he would be guilty of obstruction of justice and should be impeached.’

    I think this classifies as the minutiae dtt thinks it is safe to ignore.

  34. Voice
    If so my apologies. I’d been told it was settled by a previous high court decision that potentially tainted votes wouldn’t be reversed retrospectively (though only in the context where such things weren’t known at the time of the vote).

  35. guytaur

    The article on that Aust front page of most interest to me was “Failing job sites branded a mess”. Fraud and other moneymaking schemes abound. This is another mess down to Cash????

  38. @GT
    You seem to be referring to ministerial decisions given your mention of 3 months (which definitely haven’t been ruled on at all). I was referring to Parliamentary votes which I thought were on firmer ground where the ineligibility wasn’t known.

  39. KayJay @ #99 Tuesday, October 31st, 2017 – 9:39 am

    If, as has often been said on these pages, the older one is, the more conservative one becomes; when should one begin to feel safe from this too horrible to contemplate happening. ❓

    Perhaps eighty ❓ More ❓

    Help ❗
    😵😵😵

    KJ
    I seem to have stuffed up my previous reply by trying to edit it.

    The gist was that you have nothing to worry about, although if you start having sympathetic feelings for Hanson seek medical attention.

  42. The problem with arguments about impeachment in the US context is that the Supreme Court has held it’s entirely at the behest of the legislature, there’s never and obligation to impeach or not impeach no matter how severe or minor the issue. Short of Trump’s favourability with potential Republican voters falling to historic lows he’s never going to be impeached or convicted by a Legislature the Republicans control.

  43. @ Elau

    There’s 2 separate issues.

    1) Votes in the HoR and Senate, where the 5 votes from the disqualified people going the other way could have changed the outcome.

    2)
    a) Ministerial Decisions made by Barnaby or Nash in their portfolios when they didn’t know they were ineligible.
    b) Ministerial decisions made by Barnaby or Bash, in their portfolios (including Barnaby taking on Canavan’s portfolio) when they did know they were probably ineligible.

    1) is safe, due to a previous decision (I believe HC?)

    2a) Could go either way, no-one knows.

    2b) Could go either way, but I would say will probably be found to be ineligible.

  44. Political ‘journalists’ in this country actively collude with politicians to not just keep the facts/truth from us ..but to mis-represent the facts/truth in order to assist the promulgation of falsehoods which help those politicians to get away with their blatant lies. This in a representative democracy is totally unacceptable & it’s high time our senior political journos put their corrupt house in order.

    This. The whole Canberra Press Gallery club is a con aimed convincing consumers of the media that these PR hacks are actually journalists intent on telling us witless outsiders what is actually happening.

    Occasionally this tawdry facade is revealed for the con that it is, as with the Cash debacle. The more witless among these PR hacks masquerading as journos protest a little bit too much about protecting sources or other such irrelevances, but otherwise the show continues as before and the insiders keep their cosy little con going.

  45. Sohar
    More people don’t like company tax cuts than do isn’t news. Its brought up in every article about them in anything except the AFR (who’s readership don’t want to hear it) and some Murdoch Papers.

  46. Elau

    Thus the references to the Nixon experience by Zoomster.

    Indictments change things. Future polling could see that very scenario play out.

    It is almost certain if the Democrats win the House in the Midterms

    We are only on Day 1 of the investigation lifting some secrecy

  47. Voice
    Yes, that’s what I thought too (yay, I’m not going mad) . I’m wondering about a potential 1 b) on votes taken after known ineligibility that could change the outcome too. I’d say it’s a long shot but since it could be argued they should have immediately stepped down you might get somewhere.

  49. Adrian
    There’s a difference between protecting a source , or printing an anonymous tip you don’t know the truth off (as long as such is clearly declared) and publishing something you know to be untrue or misleading without stating it (or not correcting something you know to be such when you’re not bound by confidence) . The former are simple inevitablies of contact journalism where cultivatjng relationships and respecting anonymity can lead to major public interest stories (Oakes was good at it ) , the latter is a violation of journalistic ethics and a betrayal of the public trust.

  50. From the grapevine – Rod Taber may be running in New England. Rumour only at the moment, not to be relied on.

    If so, all I can say is that some people are gluttons for punishment.

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