Essential Research has Labor’s lead back to 53-47 after a dip to 52-48 last week, with both the Coalition and Labor on 37% of the primary vote, which is one down in the Coalition’s case and one up in Labor’s. The Greens are steady on 10%, and One Nation is down one to 7%. After last week’s poll had a headline-grabbing dip in support for same-sex marriage, this week’s has it back up: support has been registered at 59% three weeks ago, 55% last week and 58% this week, with opposition tracking from 31% to 34% to 33%. Forty-four per cent of supporters report having voted, compared with only 28% of opponents. Further questions probe the impact of the no campaign’s efforts to shift the focus to religious freedom: 34% of respondents profess themselves concerned about the impact of allowing same-sex marriage on religious freedom, with 58% not very concerned or not at all concerned, and 24% say their concerns have increased “over the last couple of weeks”, compared with 61% for stayed the same and 5% for decreased.
The survey also contains an intriguing set of questions on beliefs in various religious and scientific questions, which show rather a lot more people than I might have figured believe in heaven and hell, angels and demons, ghosts, extraterrestrial visitations and the biblical account of creation. However, few outside The Australian’s op-ed page believe global warming is a hoax perpetrated by scientists; even fewer believe that vibrations from wind farms can cause long-term health damage; and fewer still believe that vaccines cause the autism. A further series of questions on private health insurance finds strong support for government intervention to keep down premiums.
There was also a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia in Saturday’s edition of The West Australian, which had the Coalition ahead 51-49, representing a 3.7% swing to Labor compared with last year’s election – a fairly modest result compared with other polling from the state. After exclusion of the 8% undecided, the primary votes are Coalition 39.2% (48.7% at last year’s election), Labor 30.8% (32.5%), Greens 13.3% (12.1%) and One Nation 10.7%. The poll also recorded a 63-37 split in favour of same-sex marriage, and found strong support for measures in the recent state budget to increase the gold mining royalty rate (58% in favour) and increase payroll tax on businesses with payrolls of over $100 million (61% in favour), although the cutting of 3000 public sector jobs had only 34% support, with 37.5% opposed. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1723.
briefly @ #1550 Friday, September 29th, 2017 – 6:26 pm
There is a mechanism for defeating the effect of foreign laws. Renunciation.
William,
Will you be live resulting the Northcote byelection and the NSW ones?
briefly @ #1553 Friday, September 29th, 2017 – 6:30 pm
So what makes them right and Australia wrong? You are simply assuming it is so.
I will, Ides.
Yes
This whole question of dual nationality is a vexed one.
As I say to everyone, when you think of a dual national try not to think in terms of our Kiwi cousins or “mother” England, but rather a dual national in parliament without of our current bogey nations.
If you would be comfortable with a deputy PM who is also a Russian citizen or indeed a North Korean or an Iranian, then sure you can be in favour of dual nationals in parliament. If however you would gag at the idea of Barnaby Ivanovitch Joycov, then you probably should oppose it.
Possibly a better alternative would be full disclosure and abstaining from any vote where there is a perceived conflict but that would be very, very hard to enforce,
Of course resigning your former nationality will not in most cases change allegiance so it is only a partial fix. I have always wondered what would happen here in Aussieland if Australia were ever to go to war with Ireland (or Scotland). How many shamrock or thistle lovers would rally to the side of their land of origin? I suspect it would be more than you might think, even to the fourth generation.
As for more recent arrivals, should we ever be in a hot war with China or Pakistan, what would the very many dual nationals choose to do?
William
Awesome and, is it too early to ask your opinion on chances of upsets in Cootamundra and Murray?
I, for one, am glad that s44(i) is there because that is literally the only thing stopping an Islamic State-Workers Party of Korea Coalition from having a permanent majority in our parliament and having absolute, unchallenged power!
Briefly
Ithink you see the world through rose tinted glasses.
Of course some people will be conflicted and possibly disloyal in certain circumstances. Obviously a war is the most critical, but also all the actions which are taken or not taken in the diplomatic stages preceding a war. People bring their emotional baggage with them. How could a person of say German origin make a calm decision to say bomb Dresden, knowing they may have relatives there, let alone use something like a nuke. Could such a person have negotiated without bias in the lead up to WWII. Of course some will and can do it well , but they would definitely be highly conflicted.
Even such little things as trade with the UK in the eventuality of a Scottish split could affect decisions eg if buying aircraft made in UK or Scotland or fish etc.
A picture from Dons last colonoscopy….
The way things are it’s possible a person could be eligible at one election and ineligible by the next
I haven’t a notion, Ides.
briefly @ #1612 Friday, September 29th, 2017 – 7:57 pm
So what?
They could become ineligible without knowing and without themselves changing or commissioning any act
briefly @ #1615 Friday, September 29th, 2017 – 8:05 pm
If they are that dumb, would you want them?
They should be aware of their circumstances and act appropriately.
44(1) renders 1/2 the population unfit to serve in the Commonwealth Parluament even though they could run for a state parliament
‘briefly
44(1) renders 1/2 the population unfit to serve in the Commonwealth Parluament even though they could run for a state parliament’
Quite a few of them seem to have slipped through the net, and that is before we consider dual citizenship.
The report of the Joint Parliamentary Committee on the Rollout of the NBN got a good run on ABC News tonight.
It is here: http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/National_Broadband_Network/NBN/First_report
‘ It is highly peculiar that persons eligible to vote may not also be eligible to nominate for election.’
Teachers, nurses, policemen and other public servants are also not eligible to nominate. I don’t see anyone getting too fussed about that.
briefly @ #1617 Friday, September 29th, 2017 – 8:08 pm
Hyperbole.
Past time you did then, IMO.
zoomster @ #1620 Friday, September 29th, 2017 – 8:12 pm
Well they can if they really want to.
They just have to remove themselves from an ‘office of profit under the crown’.
None of these are insurmountable obstacles. If they were, then Briefly would have a point.
Zoomster
Serving members of the ADF as well (ie the other reason that got Jackie Kelly but not Hastie for some reason…..)
Here’s me last November, getting fussed about all aspects of s 44 before it was in vogue.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/11/08/poll-bludger-day-culleton-fall-foul-of-silly-section-44/
Probably because resignation from those positions is not too difficult to accomplish. Also one is not a teacher or police officer by birth and just never gotten around to resigning or was unaware that they were in that respective role at all.
William
Indeed. Personally, I’m far more fussed about that provision, as my chosen profession conflicts with my hobby.
A friend of mine was Number 4 on the Senate ticket a few elections back – totally unwinnable. All the same, she had to set it up with the Department which employed her that her resignation was on the desk of someone who was on holiday until after the election….
bemused
In which case, they cease to be a nurse or a teacher…
RL
I have known far more people who have chosen not to stand because it meant resigning from their job than those who have chosen not to stand because it meant giving up a citizenship.
Of course teachers, nurses and policemen should have to quit their jobs if they want to run for parliament. Nothing demented about that at all.
zoomster @ #1628 Friday, September 29th, 2017 – 8:19 pm
There are arrangements for them to resume their former job.
And the whole ‘office of profit under the crown’ issue is a little more problematic (and controversial) than implied here. It’s just for most of those basic workers, they usually can get their job back immediately. The issue usually is more a problem when it comes to state elected officials due to just getting their job back not being an option.
FWIW, I think such conflicts should be a disqualifier at the time of declaration of result, rather than nomination.
Don’t get over excited, William. I’ve been dancing around S44 since I first ran in 1996…
44i does serve a useful purpose in culling some of the truly stupid.
I’ll point out that I was responding to briefly’s point that being a dual citizen made people who were eligible to vote ineligible to nominate. Being a public servant makes people who are eligible to vote ineligible to nominate.
Of course there are ways around it, just as there are ways around not being a dual citizen.
zoomster @ #1638 Friday, September 29th, 2017 – 8:24 pm
Yes, but they require a modicum of intelligence.
Briefly seems to think this is too high a standard.
No doubt he will pine for Senator Roberts.
The rules may be “stupid” but it is even more stupid to not check you comply with them when you nominate.
It concerns me that Australia has far too many compradores, in the ranks of business and politics, who are prepared to sell-out their fellow citizens.
Fanciful I know, but I wish they could lose their citizenship.
Harry Hutton:
poroti @ #1640 Friday, September 29th, 2017 – 8:32 pm
Exactly.
William Bowe @ #1642 Friday, September 29th, 2017 – 8:34 pm
Great idea!
Now, allow me to set the exam and mark the papers.
…of course you should be required to quit your job (whatever it might be) if you’re elected. That’s different to being required to quit your job just to nominate.
“The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”
― Winston S. Churchill
“If voting made any difference they wouldn’t let us do it.”
― Mark Twain
“Elections belong to the people. It’s their decision. If they decide to turn their back on the fire and burn their behinds, then they will just have to sit on their blisters.”
― Abraham Lincoln
“Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance. No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have researched the records for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”
― H.L. Mencken, Notes on Democracy
Boerwar @ #1648 Friday, September 29th, 2017 – 8:48 pm
As Australia has done since 2013.
How much did the idiotic ‘Informal Party’ contribute to that outcome?
Probably the best argument against any alternative to democracy would be a 5 minute conversation with a member of whatever elite takes on the ‘burden’ of Government.
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe!”
– Einstein
From the parliamentary NBN inquiry report. Let’s hop the government follows through on this recommendation.
The Broadband Speed Claims report included principles to guide RSPs in
informing consumers of the speeds that they typically deliver on their broadband
plans:
1. Consumers should be provided with accurate information about typical
busy period speeds that the average consumer on a broadband plan can expect
to receive.
2. Wholesale network speeds or theoretical speeds taken from technical
specifications should not be advertised without reference to typical busy
period speeds.
3. Information about the performance of promoted applications should be
accurate and sufficiently prominent.
4. Factors known to affect service performance should be disclosed to
consumers.
5. Performance information should be presented in a manner that is easily
comparable by consumers, for example by adopting standard descriptive
terms that can be readily understood and recognised, and
6. RSPs should have systems in place to diagnose and resolve broadband
speed issues.9
William,
One proposition I’d like to see studied is, if instead of elections, our MPs were chosen at random. Would we ever notice the difference?
[zoomster
…of course you should be required to quit your job (whatever it might be) if you’re elected. That’s different to being required to quit your job just to nominate.]
I think a sensible compromise would be that people in such professions would need to take leave without pay from the time of nomination until the election is decided.
If they are then elected then they must resign the former position immediately.
How you achieve this is the problem, referendum or the HC?
Both I suspect would be difficult for the obvious historic reasons.